Special Weather Statement, NWS Springfield, MO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
704 PM CDT THU JUN 16 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 655 PM CDT Thu Jun 16 2016

Convection has struggeled to develop through late this afternoon
despite a very unstable airmass. Only a couple of storms had
developed just ahead of a remant MCV makings it way across the
Missouri Ozarks. Yet to receive sounding data but RAP model
analysis suggest warming mid levels and little in the way of
surface convergence could at least be a factor to storm
suppression. Isolated thunderstorm development will remain
possible this evening primarily ahead of MCV.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 300 PM CDT Thu Jun 16 2016

It is another hot and humid day across southeast Kansas and the
Missouri Ozarks. MCV over east central Kansas this morning is
slowly moving to the east into western and central Missouri. An
outflow boundary from the storms associated with the MCV had
pushed into western and central Missouri and isolated
showers/storms were beginning to ignite along this boundary,
although having difficulty maintaining updraft strength, likely
due to drier air aloft. RAP does show some increase in mid level
moisture late this afternoon so still may see some stronger storms
develop. Forecast is actually quite challenging with regards
convection tonight and Friday, and then its impact on temperatures
and the need for heat advisories on Friday.

Short term models are advertising a weak frontal boundary across the
eastern Ozarks tonight through Friday and perhaps getting as far
east as highway 65 later Friday. Weak convergence along the
front along with the MCV and outflow boundary will likely
maintain an isolated thunderstorm threat through the overnight
hours. With increasing instabilities Friday and 0-3km theta e
differentials 40- 45K, could once again see stronger thunderstorms
in the afternoon with the potential for some damaging wind gusts
and to a lesser extent large hail. However, these will be isolated
to scattered in nature at best. Position of front, convection and
cloud cover will play a major part in afternoon heat index values,
with lower values expected across the east and advisory levels
across southeast Kansas and western and southern Missouri.
Confidence is high enough to extend the heat advisory through
Friday over southeast Kansas and portions of western and southern
Missouri.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 300 PM CDT Thu Jun 16 2016

Upper ridge remains firmly in place across much of the mid section
of the country on Saturday, with the forecast area on the eastern
periphery on the ridge. Cannot rule out an isolated storm, but
confidence low enough not include in the forecast. Ridge briefly
re- asserts itself for late in the weekend so will likely see a
dry day Sunday. Although temperatures both Saturday and Sunday
will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s, slightly drier air will
hold index values down into the 90s.

Upper ridge then finally retreats westward putting the forecast area
into northwest flow, which holds through Thursday. This pattern then
becomes favorable for both MCS activity and slightly cooler
temperatures. Timing and development of any of these MCS's cannot be
made until we get closer to formation. So will broad brush low to
mid range probabilities in the gridded database to cover for this
potential.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 646 PM CDT Thu Jun 16 2016

Pilots can expect a continuation of VFR conditions at area
terminals through Friday. A weak front will move across the area
from the east on Friday bringing a light easterly flow at the
surface. The potential for an isolated storm in the area cannot be
ruled out.

&&

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for MOZ055>058-067>071-
     078>083-091-092-096>098-106.

     Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Friday for MOZ066-077-088>090-
     093>095-101>105.

KS...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Friday for KSZ073-097-101.

&&

SHORT TERM...Raberding
LONG TERM...Raberding
AVIATION...Foster

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
708 PM CDT THU JUN 16 2016

MOZ055-067-170045-
BENTON MO-ST. CLAIR MO-
708 PM CDT THU JUN 16 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN ST. CLAIR AND BENTON
COUNTIES UNTIL 745 PM CDT...

AT 707 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7
MILES WEST OF LINCOLN...OR 8 MILES NORTHWEST OF WARSAW...MOVING SOUTH
AT 20 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IN THE ADVISORY INCLUDE...
TRUMAN STATE PARK...              TRUMAN LAKE...
WARSAW...                         LINCOLN...
COLE CAMP...                      IONIA...
FRISTOE...                        PALO PINTO...
RACKET...                         KNOBBY...
EDMONSON...                       HASTAIN...
MORA...                           LAKEVIEW HEIGHTS...
ICONIUM...                        BRANDON...
WHITAKERVILLE...                  EDWARDS...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF ON OR NEAR TRUMAN LAKE AND THE WESTERN PORTION OF LAKE OF THE
OZARKS...GET OUT OF THE WATER AND MOVE INDOORS OR INSIDE A VEHICLE.
REMEMBER...LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE OUT TO 15 MILES FROM THE PARENT
THUNDERSTORM. IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE
STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. MOVE TO SAFE SHELTER NOW.
DO NOT BE CAUGHT ON THE WATER IN A THUNDERSTORM.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3809 9306 3807 9306 3806 9307 3807 9368
      3820 9365 3820 9356 3822 9356 3821 9353
      3851 9351 3851 9330 3854 9329 3853 9321
TIME...MOT...LOC 0007Z 341DEG 20KT 3835 9347

GRIFFIN

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1046 PM CDT THU JUN 16 2016

MOZ069-070-080>082-091-092-170430-
WRIGHT MO-LACLEDE MO-WEBSTER MO-CAMDEN MO-DALLAS MO-PULASKI MO-
TEXAS MO-
1046 PM CDT THU JUN 16 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN DALLAS...
NORTHEASTERN WEBSTER...LACLEDE...NORTHERN WRIGHT...NORTHWESTERN
TEXAS...SOUTHWESTERN PULASKI AND SOUTH CENTRAL CAMDEN COUNTIES UNTIL
1130 PM CDT...

AT 1046 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
NEAR LEBANON...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE AND NEARLY CONTINUOUS
GROUND TO CLOUD LIGHTNING WITH THIS STORM.

THIS STORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF NORTHEASTERN
DALLAS...NORTHEASTERN WEBSTER...LACLEDE...NORTHERN WRIGHT...
NORTHWESTERN TEXAS...SOUTHWESTERN PULASKI AND SOUTH CENTRAL CAMDEN
COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS: BENNETT SPRING STATE
PARK...MORGAN...DUNCAN...PHILLIPSBURG...STOUTLAND...BENNETT SPRINGS...
PLATO...TWIN BRIDGES...HAZELTON AND LYNCHBURG.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 44 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 108 AND 146.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3781 9299 3794 9265 3751 9197 3718 9276
TIME...MOT...LOC 0346Z 325DEG 24KT 3762 9264

GRIFFIN