Special Weather Statement, NWS Springfield, MO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
250 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)

Ongoing thunderstorms were becoming more outflow structured across
southwest and south central Missouri this afternoon. This will
lead to further weakening with time, and we may consider
cancelling the Severe Thunderstorm Watch early.

The main show will occur tonight as a line of thunderstorms
approaches the Kansas and Missouri state line toward midnight.

We think a few of these storms could become organized, with the
potential for damaging wind gusts and small hail. With 0 to 3 km
shear vectors screaming to the north northeast at 40 to 45 knots,
any northwest to southeast oriented line segments will have the
chance of spinning up some meso-vorts with a tornado risk.
However, it's quite uncertain that any segments will evolve into
this northwest to southeast structure. This is more of a short
term forecast challenge.

Storms are expected to continue through the Highway 65 corridor,
and should weaken as they approach the eastern Ozarks.

Additional storms will possible Wednesday as the main cold front
shifts through southern Missouri during the daytime hours. There
is a severe risk for hail and wind east of Highway 65. All
precipitation should exit the Ozarks Wednesday evening.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)

A small window of quiet weather is expected Thursday into Friday
with mild temperatures.

The risk for organized storms will ramp up Friday night into
Saturday, as another negatively tilted storm system approaches
from the west.

This system will need to be monitored closely as several
ingredients could come together for an episode of severe
thunderstorms. There doesn't appear to be any potential negatives
for Friday night and Saturday's set up at the moment.

Sunday into Monday the pattern would offer another window of quiet
weather with mild temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)

Pilots flying in and out of the southwest Missouri airports will
need to monitor the radar today and tonight.

A big storm system was approaching the region from the west, which
will force showers and thunderstorms later today and tonight. Some
thunderstorms were already ongoing across central Missouri, and
are expected to slowly drift into far southern Missouri by this
afternoon.

Surface winds could be gusty at times this afternoon.

If any storms directly impacts an airfield, look for significantly
reduced flight conditions, especially if some of these storms
become severe.

Safe Travels.

&&

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Cramer

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
315 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-272015-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
315 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...

  LIMITED TORNADO RISK.
  LIMITED HAIL RISK.
  ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE RISK.
  LIMITED FLOODING RISK.
  SIGNIFICANT LIGHTNING RISK.

DISCUSSION...

THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW STORMS COULD CONTAIN
WINDS UP TO 60 MPH AND HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS.

THE PRIMARY WAVE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH
THE MISSOURI AND KANSAS STATE LINE AFTER 10 PM THIS EVENING.
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD WITH THESE STORMS.
IF A LINE SEGMENT CAN BECOME ORIENTED FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST...THEN A COUPLE OF TORNADOES CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN LATE TONIGHT AS THEY SHIFT EAST OF
THE HIGHWAY 65 CORRIDOR. THEREFORE THE BETTER CHANCES FOR SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE WEST OF HIGHWAY 65.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING OVER THE
EASTERN OZARKS WHERE SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE. IF ENOUGH INSTABILITY CAN REDEVELOP DURING THE
AFTERNOON...ADDITIONAL STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
EAST OF HIGHWAY 65 WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS A SURFACE FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH.

SEVERE STORMS ARE AGAIN FORECASTED FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
AS A STRONG STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED IN THE NEXT THREE HOURS FOR FOR
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND THE MISSOURI OZARKS.

&&

MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SGF/SITREP(ALL LOWERCASE)

THIS PRODUCT IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...
HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

CRAMER

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
529 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

MOZ092-262315-
WRIGHT MO-
529 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL WRIGHT COUNTY UNTIL 615
PM CDT...

AT 529 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7
MILES NORTHWEST OF HARTVILLE...OR 15 MILES EAST OF MARSHFIELD...MOVING
EAST AT 15 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IN THE ADVISORY INCLUDE...
DAWSON...                         HARTVILLE...
MANES...                          ODIN...
GROVESPRING...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3720 9268 3727 9269 3741 9269 3746 9229
      3714 9229
TIME...MOT...LOC 2229Z 269DEG 14KT 3732 9262

FRYE

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