Severe Thunderstorm Warning 25, NWS Springfield, MO

576 
WWUS53 KSGF 261557
SVSSGF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1057 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

MOC015-141-261630-
/O.CON.KSGF.SV.W.0025.000000T0000Z-160426T1630Z/
MORGAN MO-BENTON MO-
1057 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1130 AM CDT
FOR NORTHERN MORGAN AND NORTHEASTERN BENTON COUNTIES...

AT 1055 AM CDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES SOUTHEAST OF OTTERVILLE TO NEAR LINCOLN...
MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. 

SOURCE...LAW ENFORCEMENT. 60 MPH WINDS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL HAVE
         BEEN REPORTED IN SEVERAL LOCATIONS ALONG HIGHWAY 50 BETWEEN
         SMITHTON AND SYRACUSE IN NORTHERN MORGAN COUNTY. 

IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO 
         ROOFS...SIDING...AND TREES. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
VERSAILLES...                     WARSAW...
LINCOLN...                        COLE CAMP...
STOVER...                         SYRACUSE...
IONIA...                          EDMONSON...
MORA...                           LAKEVIEW HEIGHTS...
FLORENCE...                       CROCKERVILLE...
ZORA...                           

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AND CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS. MOVE INDOORS IMMEDIATELY.
LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES LEADING KILLERS. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN
HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

&&

LAT...LON 3868 9284 3860 9284 3849 9271 3835 9286
      3818 9336 3851 9336 3851 9330 3854 9329
      3853 9307 3855 9306 3867 9306 3869 9301
TIME...MOT...LOC 1555Z 288DEG 23KT 3864 9291 3838 9326 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

BOXELL

459 
WWUS53 KSGF 261622
SVSSGF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1122 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

MOC015-141-261630-
/O.CON.KSGF.SV.W.0025.000000T0000Z-160426T1630Z/
MORGAN MO-BENTON MO-
1122 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1130 AM CDT
FOR NORTHERN MORGAN AND EAST CENTRAL BENTON COUNTIES...

AT 1121 AM CDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM NEAR CLARKSBURG TO 8 MILES SOUTH OF STOVER...MOVING
EAST AT 30 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. 

SOURCE...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS. LARGE TREES HAVE BEEN REPORTED
         DOWN NORTH OF VERSAILLES WITHIN THE LAST 5 MINUTES. 

IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO 
         ROOFS...SIDING...AND TREES. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
VERSAILLES...                     STOVER...
LAKEVIEW HEIGHTS...               ZORA...
CROCKERVILLE...                   EDMONSON...

AN ADDITIONAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR AREAS TO
THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THIS WARNING. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AND CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS. MOVE INDOORS IMMEDIATELY.
LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES LEADING KILLERS. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN
HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

&&

LAT...LON 3860 9284 3849 9271 3835 9286 3818 9336
      3838 9323
TIME...MOT...LOC 1621Z 289DEG 25KT 3858 9270 3832 9305 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

BOXELL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
651 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 251 AM CDT Tue Apr 26 2016

Convection starting to develop along a west east boundary across
northeast KS and west central MO near the I-70 corridor. Pretty
decent elevated mixed layer was located along and south of the
boundary and developing convection including our forecast area.
Surface low was located over the high plains with dryline from
western Kansas into the panhandle of OK and TX. South-southwest
low level jet and mid level diffluent flow was aiding in the
developing convection.

This is going to be a busy weather day/night for our CWA and
neighboring CWA's to the west and will be the main focus with this
forecast package.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 251 AM CDT Tue Apr 26 2016

Early morning convection will continue to increase north of the
CWA prior to sunrise nearer to the surface boundary. This activity
will gradually shift east today over mostly northern and central
MO, possibly affecting our central MO counties later today.
Further south within the EML, instability will increase
significantly with CAPES in excess of 3000 j/kg developing. Have
my doubts as to whether we will freely convect given the strength
of the thermal cap in place without a trigger, but will keep in
low end pops just in case. Best chance will be over central MO
where some outflow or ongoing convection may move into the area.
Dryline out west is likely to get active by midday as upper level
jet impinges on the central/southern plains and weakens the EML.
By late in the afternoon, the shear starts to become fairly strong
to our west and the combination with the strong instability
supports the moderate risk of severe storms from southern Nebraska
into central Kansas and Oklahoma. The best chances for supercells
moving into our area will be this evening and over our western
CWA, before they start to congeal into more of line segments. The
primary severe risk after that occurs will be damaging wind,
although we could still see tornadoes develop out of these line
segments through the rest of the evening and overnight hours.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 251 AM CDT Tue Apr 26 2016

Wednesday looks like a messy forecast. There will probably be
ongoing convection at 12z Wed to start the morning, but models are
clearing this out by late morning. With the front still to the
west, can enough instability develop in the wake of the first
complex for convection to refire in the afternoon. Best bet will
be over our eastern CWA, where the higher surface dewpoints will
hang around the longest. Current day 2 outlook shows this with
slight risk over the eastern half of our CWA. Would expect this
activity to clear our eastern CWA by mid to late evening.

There should be a brief break from the convective potential on
Thursday, before the active pattern brings in the next system on
Friday into the weekend. This has the potential to be a wet
weekend with closed upper level low sitting over the central U.S.
for quite awhile.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 651 AM CDT Tue Apr 26 2016

Rather low confidence in overall forecast, especially with respect
to the details. Short term models want to lift MVFR ceilings from
eastern Oklahoma and Arkansas northward into the taf sites. This
has been a trend for the last several runs and latest satellite
imagery also showing this trend, so expect a period of MVFR
ceilings this morning. Otherwise expect VFR flight conditions through
the remainder of the taf period with MVFR/IFR possible in
convection later today and tonight.

In terms of convection an area of thunderstorms over northeast
Kansas is expected to drop southeast into central Missouri by
mid-day. Expect this activity to remain north of the taf sites
though, but did include some VCTS this afternoon. Otherwise,
better chances will come this evening as convection across Kansas
and Oklahoma pushes eastward. Timing still a little uncertain but
will most likely affect KJLN during the early to mid evening and
KSGF and KBBG late evening to midnight or shortly there after.

&&

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Raberding

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
835 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-271345-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
835 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...

  LIMITED TORNADO RISK.
  ELEVATED HAIL RISK.
  ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE RISK.
  SIGNIFICANT LIGHTNING RISK.

DISCUSSION...

A CLUSTER OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM THE
KANSAS CITY AREA LATER THIS MORNING...AND PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA FROM MID
MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH THIS COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS.

ADDITIONAL SEVERE WEATHER ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
OUT IN THE PLAINS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL EVENTUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD
INTO EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI THIS EVENING.
ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THESE
THUNDERSTORMS MOVE IN FROM THE WEST. THE STORMS WILL GRADUALLY
FORM INTO LINE SEGMENTS TONIGHT WHEN THE MAIN RISK WILL BECOME
DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS. A TORNADO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT
WITH THIS ACTIVITY...BUT THE MAIN TORNADIC RISK WILL BE ALONG AND
WEST OF THE INTERSTATE 49 CORRIDOR.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING OVER THE
EASTERN OZARKS WHERE SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE. IF ENOUGH INSTABILITY CAN REDEVELOP DURING THE
AFTERNOON...ADDITIONAL STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
EAST OF HIGHWAY 65 WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS A SURFACE FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL RETURN FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE MAY BE THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL STRONG
STORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE AREA. THERE MAY
BE A LIMITED FLOODING THREAT WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL
POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK
AREA...AND ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA LATER THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.

&&

MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SGF/SITREP(ALL LOWERCASE)

THIS PRODUCT IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...
HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

BOXELL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1026 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

MOZ055-056-261615-
BENTON MO-MORGAN MO-
1026 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MORGAN AND BENTON COUNTIES UNTIL
1115 AM CDT...

AT 1025 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 7 MILES NORTHWEST OF PILOT
GROVE TO NEAR CALHOUN...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IN THE ADVISORY INCLUDE...
TRUMAN STATE PARK...              TRUMAN LAKE...
LAKE OF THE OZARKS...             VERSAILLES...
WARSAW...                         LINCOLN...
COLE CAMP...                      STOVER...
LAURIE...                         SUNRISE BEACH...
BARNETT...                        SYRACUSE...
GRAVOIS MILLS...                  IONIA...
FRISTOE...                        PALO PINTO...
RACKET...                         ROCKY MOUNT...
HASTAIN...                        FLORENCE...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF ON OR NEAR TRUMAN LAKE AND LAKE OF THE OZARKS...GET OUT OF THE
WATER AND MOVE INDOORS OR INSIDE A VEHICLE. REMEMBER...LIGHTNING CAN
STRIKE OUT TO 15 MILES FROM THE PARENT THUNDERSTORM. IF YOU CAN HEAR
THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. MOVE TO
SAFE SHELTER NOW.

DO NOT BE CAUGHT ON THE WATER IN A THUNDERSTORM.

&&

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 PM CDT FOR
WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI.

LAT...LON 3868 9284 3860 9284 3843 9263 3835 9263
      3835 9269 3822 9270 3822 9276 3819 9277
      3820 9296 3821 9293 3823 9296 3819 9301
      3822 9299 3827 9307 3806 9307 3807 9350
      3808 9350 3851 9351 3853 9307 3869 9306
TIME...MOT...LOC 1525Z 305DEG 40KT 3893 9303 3844 9353

BOXELL