Severe Thunderstorm Warning 44, NWS Springfield, MO

461 
WWUS53 KSGF 010011
SVSSGF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
711 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

MOC153-010020-
/O.CAN.KSGF.SV.W.0044.000000T0000Z-160501T0030Z/
OZARK MO-
711 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN OZARK COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

THE STORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAVE MOVED OUT OF THE WARNED
AREA. THEREFORE THE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT FOR
SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI.

LAT...LON 3676 9212 3679 9212 3679 9224 3680 9232
      3725 9201 3729 9169 3675 9199
TIME...MOT...LOC 0010Z 226DEG 19KT 3721 9188 3701 9205 3679 9226 

$$

MOC067-091-215-010030-
/O.CON.KSGF.SV.W.0044.000000T0000Z-160501T0030Z/
HOWELL MO-TEXAS MO-DOUGLAS MO-
711 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 730 PM CDT
FOR NORTHWESTERN HOWELL...SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS AND EASTERN DOUGLAS
COUNTIES...

AT 710 PM CDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 9 MILES SOUTHEAST OF HOUSTON TO NEAR WILLOW SPRINGS TO
15 MILES NORTHEAST OF GAINESVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

HAZARD...HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL. 

SOURCE...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS. LARGE HAIL WAS REPORTED IN AND
         NORTH OF GAINESVILLE WITH THESE STORMS. 

IMPACT...DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
WILLOW SPRINGS...                 CABOOL...
SILOAM SPRINGS...                 SOLO...
CLEAR SPRINGS...                  SIMMONS...
ELK CREEK...                      EUNICE...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THESE STORMS ARE PRODUCING LARGE HAIL. SEEK SHELTER NOW INSIDE A
STURDY STRUCTURE AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

&&

LAT...LON 3676 9212 3679 9212 3679 9224 3680 9232
      3725 9201 3729 9169 3675 9199
TIME...MOT...LOC 0010Z 226DEG 19KT 3721 9188 3701 9205 3679 9226 

HAIL...1.25IN
WIND...<50MPH
 
$$

BOXELL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
642 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

...Mesoscale and Aviation Discussions...

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
Issued at 628 PM CDT Sat Apr 30 2016

Storms have finally developed early this evening across south-
central Missouri and portions of the eastern Ozarks. These storms
have initiated in a weakly convergent area along a surface cold
frontal boundary. The atmosphere in this area is characterized by
a moderately unstable atmosphere (MLCAPEs 1200-1700 J/kg) with
decent mid-level lapse rates. Effective bulk shears are weak,
however higher values (30-35 knots) have impinged on the storms
near the Arkansas border as a secondary jet streak approaches this
region. This feature has likely resulted in the more robust
convection across this area.

Heading through mid-evening, a severe threat will remain across
south-central Missouri as effective bulk shear continues to
increase and the front/storm outflows initiate additional
convection. Storms should then begin to weaken and push out of
the eastern Ozarks around mid-evening as instability decreases and
the front shifts east of the region.

On another note, we have added a mention of patchy fog to much of
southern and portions of central Missouri for later tonight. Dew
point depressions will become almost nil with winds become very
light. Area lakes will also see good potential for fog as lake
temps are in the mid to upper 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 228 PM CDT Sat Apr 30 2016

Dryline currently moving across the forecast area this afternoon
is expected to spark storms that will affect mainly the eastern
Ozarks through this evening. A few strong to severe storms will be
possible through early evening as mentioned in the previous
mesoscale discussion.

Otherwise expect sky cover to continue clearing from west to
east as drier airmass behind the cold front spreads across the
area and main area of low pressure over the central Plains pushes
eastward toward the Ohio Valley. Temperatures are expected to drop
into the 40s over the western Ozarks and southeast Kansas tonight.

Still looks like we will have temperatures about 10 to 15 degrees
cooler on Sunday.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 228 PM CDT Sat Apr 30 2016

Models have increased the coverage of precipitation associated
with passage of upper level trough axis on Monday/Monday night...but
continue to keep accumulations low. Instability is low to nil so
will keep thunder out of the forecast.

The rest of the work week looks dry as high pressure builds
across the region and upper ridge sets up across the
Rockies. There may be some increase in cloud cover Wednesday night
as a weak disturbance drops southeast around the back side of the Great
Lakes upper trough.

Storm activity may pick up late next weekend as an upper level
trough develops over the southwest U.S.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 628 PM CDT Sat Apr 30 2016

Skies will clear off this evening with VFR expected for much of
the night. There is then increasing potential for patchy/shallow
fog late tonight and early Sunday morning as winds become light.
Visibilities in these situations are often highly variable. Any
fog should then dissipate by mid-morning on Sunday with VFR
returning.

&&

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

MESOSCALE...Schaumann
SHORT TERM...Terry
LONG TERM...Terry
AVIATION...Schaumann

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
522 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-012230-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
522 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...

  ELEVATED HAIL RISK.
  LIMITED THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE RISK.
  ELEVATED LIGHTNING RISK.

DISCUSSION...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING...MAINLY IN AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM
GAINESVILLE TO HOUSTON TO ROLLA. THE MAIN POTENTIAL HAZARDS FROM
THESE STORMS WILL BE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS...FREQUENT
LIGHTNING...AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL. A FEW STORMS MAY ALSO
PRODUCE WIND GUSTS OVER 50 MPH. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
AND PUSH OUT OF THE EASTERN OZARKS BY LATE EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THROUGH MID EVENING FOR AREAS
ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM GAINESVILLE TO HOUSTON TO ROLLA.

&&

MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SGF/SITREP(ALL LOWERCASE)

THIS PRODUCT IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...
HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

SCHAUMANN