Severe Thunderstorm Warning 188, NWS Springfield, MO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
257 PM CDT FRI JUL 29 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 228 PM CDT Fri Jul 29 2016

Thunderstorms developed ahead of windshift/cold front moving
through our eastern counties. A shortwave has enhanced winds aloft
with 30-35kt 0-6km bulk shear over the northern cwfa/central MO
down to 20 kts or so along the MO/AR border. Better instability
resides along the MO/AR border versus points north in central MO.
All-in-all there will be severe mixed mode storm risk over the
next 2-3 hours in our eastern counties with a wind/hail risk.

The effective front will drop to near the MO/AR line tonight.
Another upstream shortwave will move southeast into eastern OK/KS
late tonight and early Saturday morning with increasing chances
for some storms over the southwestern portion of the forecast
area. Overall severe storm chances will be low with this next
round of storms.

Daytime highs should actually remain below normal for this time of
year on Saturday.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 228 PM CDT Fri Jul 29 2016

Could see a repeat round of convection Saturday night into Sunday
with yet another shortwave moving through the area as the the sfc
front begins to lift back to the north.

Medium range guidance is still consistent in gradually building
upper level heights/ridging back into the central CONUS next week.
We will see a return to hotter temperatures with the possibility
of heat advisories/headlines with heat indices progged to reach
over 100-105 deg F again for a few days. Rain chances, while not
zero, will be greatly reduced by this time with high
pressure/warmer air aloft.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1203 PM CDT Fri Jul 29 2016

Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue
throughout this afternoon, with tempo groups for KSGF and KBBG.
Localized MVFR conditions will occur in the vicinity of
thunderstorms. Confidence is not high for tomorrow morning so a
prob30 group has been added to all TAF sites. Outside of
thunderstorms conditions will be VFR with light winds.

&&

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Foscato

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
145 PM CDT FRI JUL 29 2016

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-301845-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
145 PM CDT FRI JUL 29 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...

  LIMITED HAIL RISK.
  LIMITED THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE RISK.
  LIMITED LIGHTNING RISK.

DISCUSSION...

AREAS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT AN AREA EAST OF A LINE FROM
ELDON TO SPRINGFIELD TO BRANSON THIS AFTERNOON. DAMAGING WINDS
AND UP TO ONE INCH HAIL WILL BE POSISBLE WITH A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT THE OUTLOOK AREA ON A DAILY
BASIS FROM SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. A COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MAY BRING A MORE
WIDESPREAD CHANCE OF RAINFALL. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.

AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
90S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN
KANSAS AND ALONG THE MISSOURI AND ARKANSAS BORDER. HIGHER HEAT
INDICES OVER 100 DEGREES WILL RETURN NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED OVER PARTS OF THE EASTERN OZARKS
THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SGF/SITREP(ALL LOWERCASE)

THIS PRODUCT IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...
HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

DSA

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
246 PM CDT FRI JUL 29 2016

MOZ082-083-098-292030-
SHANNON MO-DENT MO-TEXAS MO-
246 PM CDT FRI JUL 29 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN SHANNON...DENT AND
NORTHEASTERN TEXAS COUNTIES UNTIL 330 PM CDT...

AT 246 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 13 MILES WEST OF SALEM TO
NEAR LICKING TO NEAR RAYMONDVILLE...AND MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IN THE ADVISORY INCLUDE...
MONTAUK STATE PARK...             SALEM...
LICKING...                        BUNKER...
STONE HILL...                     HOWES MILL...
GLADDEN...                        ANUTT...
SLIGO...                          BOSS...
DARIEN...                         HOWES...
TURTLE...                         LENOX...
JADWIN...                         BANGERT...
AKERS...                          MONTAUK...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY
LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3759 9131 3751 9131 3750 9121 3742 9121
      3741 9117 3734 9118 3738 9190 3760 9186
      3760 9181 3777 9181 3778 9131 3770 9130
      3769 9115 3759 9116
TIME...MOT...LOC 1946Z 273DEG 36KT 3768 9178 3754 9179 3740 9183

TERRY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
254 PM CDT FRI JUL 29 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0235 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 NE BAKERSFIELD        36.55N 92.10W
07/29/2016                   HOWELL             MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS DOWNED TREE LIMBS ON
            HIGHWAY YY.

&&

DCRAMER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
305 PM CDT FRI JUL 29 2016

MOZ098-106-292030-
SHANNON MO-OREGON MO-
305 PM CDT FRI JUL 29 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL SHANNON AND
NORTHEASTERN OREGON COUNTIES UNTIL 330 PM CDT...

AT 304 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7
MILES SOUTH OF WINONA...OR 17 MILES SOUTHWEST OF VAN BUREN...MOVING
EAST AT 15 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IN THE ADVISORY INCLUDE...
GREER...

LAT...LON 3676 9135 3693 9144 3702 9122 3685 9122
      3683 9123 3682 9119
TIME...MOT...LOC 2004Z 259DEG 11KT 3690 9130

TERRY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
315 PM CDT FRI JUL 29 2016

MOZ083-098-292100-
SHANNON MO-DENT MO-
315 PM CDT FRI JUL 29 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN SHANNON AND SOUTHEASTERN
DENT COUNTIES UNTIL 400 PM CDT...

AT 315 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 8 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SALEM
TO 14 MILES EAST OF LICKING TO 8 MILES NORTH OF SUMMERSVILLE...AND
MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IN THE ADVISORY INCLUDE...
CURRENT RIVER STATE PARK...       MONTAUK STATE PARK...
EMINENCE...                       BUNKER...
WEST EMINENCE...                  MIDRIDGE...
JADWIN...                         ALLEY SPRING...
GLADDEN...                        AKERS...
ROUND SPRING...                   DARIEN...
TURTLE...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY
LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3710 9105 3709 9121 3702 9123 3723 9166
      3750 9166 3760 9143 3755 9131 3751 9131
      3750 9121 3742 9121 3741 9117 3726 9116
      3725 9112 3720 9112 3720 9109 3718 9109
      3716 9104
TIME...MOT...LOC 2015Z 302DEG 30KT 3754 9145 3748 9160 3730 9162

TERRY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
324 PM CDT FRI JUL 29 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0230 PM     TSTM WND DMG     BAKERSFIELD             36.52N 92.14W
07/29/2016                   OZARK              MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            LIMBS DOWN. PHONE LINE WIRES INTO TWO HOMES DOWN.

&&

DSA

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
325 PM CDT FRI JUL 29 2016

MOZ106-292115-
OREGON MO-
325 PM CDT FRI JUL 29 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN OREGON COUNTY UNTIL
415 PM CDT...

AT 325 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR ALTON TO THAYER...AND
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IN THE ADVISORY INCLUDE...
GRAND GULF STATE PARK...          THAYER...
ALTON...                          WILDERNESS...
MYRTLE...                         COUCH...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY
LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3650 9167 3667 9156 3682 9122 3652 9112
      3650 9113 3651 9116
TIME...MOT...LOC 2025Z 237DEG 26KT 3665 9134 3655 9154

TERRY