Special Weather Statement, NWS Blacksburg, VA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
725 PM EDT Tue Aug 16 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure centered over the western Atlantic will continue to
provide a moist southwest flow humid air across the region
through Thursday. A weak cold front will drift southeast from the
Ohio Valley Wednesday night and Thursday before stalling just
south of the area on Friday. This boundary will dissipate across
the Carolinas by the end of the week ahead of another cold front
that will approach from the northwest during the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 345 PM EDT Tuesday...

Scattered thunderstorms will mainly along the ridge lines slowly
diminish after sunset. Winds at 850 mb turn to the west tonight
which will help suppress precipitation overnight east of the Blue
Ridge.

On Wednesday 500MB heights gradually lower over the forecast area.
Axis of deepest moisture and best list will be oriented from
southeast Pennsylvania to central arkansas.

Better upper diffluence in the right rear quadrant of the upper jet
will also be closer to the forecast area. This will be enough to
provide more widespread lift.

Will maintain higher probability of precipitation well into the late
Wednesday afternoon even after daytime heat is no longer
contributing to the instability and lift.

More cloud cover and precipitation on Wednesday may trim a couple of
degrees off the high temperatures. Otherwise...with no change in the
airmass, minimum temperatures will be similar to past few night with
continued high humidity.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 120 PM EDT Tuesday...

During this portion of the forecast, a cold front will head south
through the region on Thursday, and be south of the region by
Thursday night. Anticipate good coverage of showers and storms near
and coincident to the frontal passage. By late Thursday night, the
northern half of the region is expected to be precipitation free.
Lingering isolated to scattered showers will still be possible
across the southern half, especially those areas south of the VA/NC
border.

The break in the precipitation will be short lived. An
developing/approaching upper trough in the center of CONUS will
shift directions on the front, and bring it back toward or into the
area on Friday as a warm front. Look for precipitation to gradually
spread southwest to northeast into the area.

Temperatures will trend slightly cooler, but still remain a bit
above average for this time of the year.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 150 PM EDT Tuesday...

The central CONUS trough, will continue to deepen and head east.
Guidance yesterday was hinting at Sunday, but the latest guidance
has more of a Monday arrival time for its associated cold front into
our region. Anticipate a trend for increasing chances of
precipitation in advance this feature.

With lowering heights, and more cloud cover and precipitation,
temperatures will be slightly cooler Saturday through Monday as
compared to Thursday and Friday. Readings still will be slightly
above normal for this time of year, especially in regards to the low
temperatures. On Tuesday, anticipate cooler temperatures in the wake
of the cold front. Temperatures will be slightly below normal.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 715 PM EDT Tuesday...

Will keep VCTS at BLF/LWB/BCB for a few hours this evening. Then
expect some MVFR to IFR fog in locations that had rain overnight.

Have maintained LIFR fog in the KLWB and KBCB tafs for late
tonight based on no change in the air mass and formation of fog
over the past few night.

Wednesday frontal boundary slips closer to the WV mountains. As
such will see an uptick in storms by Wednesday afternoon. For now
have introduced shra with vcts for now west of the Blue Ridge
including Roanoke, but kept vcts in only at DAN/LYH. As storms
evolve tomorrow will fine tune the forecast, amending as
necessary. With high moist environment storms will bring MVFR to
IFR conditions if they move over an airport.

Extended aviation discussion...

For Wednesday night and beyond, the area of high pressure along
the southeast Atlantic coast is expected to weaken. This will
allow a frontal system to begin moving south toward the region,
resulting in an increased coverage of showers/thunderstorms with
attendant periods of MVFR to IFR cigs/vsbys. Early morning low
clouds and fog will likely be on the increase also. Friday will
offer the best break in this pattern with the better probability
of precipitation moving into North Carolina. Confidence is medium
to low on this short-lived drier weather. The chance of showers
and thunderstorms returns on Saturday into Sunday.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS/WP
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...AMS/JH/WP

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
422 PM EDT TUE AUG 16 2016

NCZ001>006-018>020-VAZ007-009>020-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059-
WVZ042>044-507-508-172030-
ASHE-ALLEGHANY NC-SURRY-STOKES-ROCKINGHAM-CASWELL-WATAUGA-WILKES-
YADKIN-TAZEWELL-SMYTH-BLAND-GILES-WYTHE-PULASKI-MONTGOMERY-GRAYSON-
CARROLL-FLOYD-CRAIG-ALLEGHANY VA-BATH-ROANOKE-BOTETOURT-ROCKBRIDGE-
PATRICK-FRANKLIN-BEDFORD-AMHERST-HENRY-PITTSYLVANIA-CAMPBELL-
APPOMATTOX-BUCKINGHAM-HALIFAX-CHARLOTTE-MERCER-SUMMERS-MONROE-
EASTERN GREENBRIER-WESTERN GREENBRIER-
422 PM EDT TUE AUG 16 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA...NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTH
CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING COULD BECOME
STRONG TO SEVERE. ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE IS THE MAIN THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREAT.

FOR THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE PROBABILITY IS LOW FOR
WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

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