Special Weather Statement, NWS Blacksburg, VA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
935 PM EDT Sun Jul 31 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move south through the area and stall near or
south of the Virginia, North Carolina border. By Thursday, the
front will lift north through the region again, and stall once
again. It will continue to be the focus for additional showers
and storms into the upcoming weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 915 PM EDT Sunday...

Deeper convection continues to develop across the south and east
where still seeing lingering 1-2K MLCAPE this evening. Also focus
aided by a residual trough axis embedded within very high surface
theta-e and moist pwats off evening soundings. Latest HRRR
supports added convective bands/clusters redeveloping over the
southeast through around midnight so leaving in low likely to high
chance pops there before enough diurnal cooling and gradual loss
of instability allow storms to finally fade. Also may see isolated
coverage to the west where old outflow lingers ahead of the weak
upstream front. However invasion of drier air aloft as seen via
the latest water vapor loop should start to shut things down
overnight with only slight pops needed at best with some clearing
late. This will result in areas of dense fog espcly south/east
where heavier rainfall has occurred and in the mountain valleys
given lingering soupy dewpoints. Latest guidance also suggests
temps may be slower to fall than earlier thought so bumped up a
category in spots with most out east remaining in the muggy 70s.

Previous discussion as of 235 PM EDT Sunday...

Models vary on activity this afternoon/evening in terms of where
best coverage will occur. The 12z GFS and to some extent the Euro
showing higher threat in the mountains of WV down toward the NC
foothills, while the high-res models and 12z nam favor more of the
foothills to piedmont. Will favor the east more given better low lvl
convergence and higher theta-e. Still some decent coverage possible
further northwest toward the Alleghany Highlands closer to the upper
vort moving across from Ohio to MD. Will continue to have high
chance to low likely mainly from Rockbridge south to the Blue
Ridge/Foothills of Patrick/Surry county east, with more 30/40 pops in
the west with less threat in the southwest toward the NC/TN border.

As we head into tonight the upper wave passes across PA/MD and sends
the frontal boundary south toward our forecast area. With sfc
convergence and lingering moisture will keep at least slight chance
of showers southeast overnight. Most models agree with this though
the NAM pops up a few showers further north which could happen but
think the threat is low.

Fog will be prevalent again late tonight especially if it clears
enough. Some moisture may stick around with the front, but best fog
threat will be in the mountains and valleys. Lows tonight to range
from the lower to mid 60s west to lower 70s southeast.

Monday should see somewhat drier weather as front drops slightly
south toward the NC/VA border. Confidence low that entire forecast
will be dry though as another 1 to 2 upper waves pass across and
some sfc trough may send the front slightly north again in the
afternoon. Still best threat for storms Monday afternoon will be in
southern Virginia into NC with isolated coverage north of a
Bluefield to Roanoke to Lynchburg line.

Going with some lower dewpoints in the north compared to today so a
little less humid. Still temperatures should manage to reach typical
1st of August norms or just a degree or two higher, with lower 80s
west to around 90 east.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 300 PM EDT Sunday...

During this portion of the forecast the region will transition from
being under the influence of an upper level trough to being under an
upper level ridge. While not reducing our precipitation chances to
zero, this transition will result in a trend towards less afternoon
convection, especially on Tuesday. Wednesday afternoon may see more
coverage than Tuesday as the center of the upper ridge shifts to our
east. Little in the way of temperature change is expected through
the period. Highs in the low to mid 80s will be common across the
mountains with upper 80s to around 90 across the Piedmont. Lows in
the low to mid 60s across the mountains and upper 60s to near 70
across the Piedmont are expected.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
During this portion of the forecast the shortwave upper ridge will
continue its shift east, and then south of the area. A stronger
shortwave trough will traverse the Great Lakes region all while our
area transitions to a nearly zonal flow. The result will a period of
increased chances of daily showers and storms as we develop a train
of moisture wrapping clockwise around the upper high, across our
region, having its origins from the western Gulf of Mexico.

Temperatures will on Thursday will just slightly cooler than recent
days, but by the weekend rebound back to readings comparable to
earlier in the week.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 656 PM EDT Sunday...

Band of deeper convection continues to oscillate along a KBCB-
KROA-KLYH line and will likely affect some of these locations past
sunset. However given pulse nature, hard to determine if a
shra/tsra will directly impact one of the sites so keeping a VCTS
including a tempo group during the next couple of hours. Otherwise
expecting convection to remain quite isolated elsewhere but enough
to include some mention until shortly after loss of heating.

Overnight fog will be an issue espcly where rainfall has occurred and
in the river valleys. Confidence high enough to have at least IFR
or worse at KLWB/KBCB and KLYH late tonight. Not as confident in
how low KBLF/KDAN get as some models keeping them no worse than
MVFR while fog/stratus quite iffy at KBLF but will leave in MVFR,
just delayed until well after midnight.

As usual any fog/stratus should be gone by mid morning Monday
with VFR expected thereafter with cu fields again building during
the afternoon.

Extended aviation discussion...

The weak cold front will sag through the region Monday night before
stalling just south of the area into midweek. This should briefly
push deeper moisture to the south by Tuesday with mainly isolated
convection Tuesday and perhaps mainly south/east of the taf sites
Wednesday. Moisture will return north by Thursday ahead of the
next upstream cold front with shra/tsra likely Thursday afternoon
and again Friday.

Thus VFR conditions are expected for most of the time, with the
exception being temporary sub-VFR conditions with any shower or
thunderstorm, and during the night with patchy fog and stratus.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...WP
NEAR TERM...JH/WP
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...AMS/JH/WP

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1120 PM EDT SUN JUL 31 2016

NCZ004>006-020-VAZ023-024-033>035-043>047-058-059-020330-
STOKES-ROCKINGHAM-CASWELL-YADKIN-BOTETOURT-ROCKBRIDGE-FRANKLIN-
BEDFORD-AMHERST-HENRY-PITTSYLVANIA-CAMPBELL-APPOMATTOX-BUCKINGHAM-
HALIFAX-CHARLOTTE-
1120 PM EDT SUN JUL 31 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA...NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTH
CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL
LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NCZ001>003-018-019-VAZ007-009>020-022-032-WVZ042>044-507-508-020330-
ASHE-ALLEGHANY NC-SURRY-WATAUGA-WILKES-TAZEWELL-SMYTH-BLAND-GILES-
WYTHE-PULASKI-MONTGOMERY-GRAYSON-CARROLL-FLOYD-CRAIG-ALLEGHANY VA-
BATH-ROANOKE-PATRICK-MERCER-SUMMERS-MONROE-EASTERN GREENBRIER-
WESTERN GREENBRIER-
1120 PM EDT SUN JUL 31 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA...NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...WEST
CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
803 PM EDT SUN JUL 31 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0535 PM     TSTM WND DMG     SSW ROANOKE             37.27N 79.96W
07/31/2016                   CITY OF ROANOKE    VA   911 CALL CENTER

            MULTIPLE TREES DOWN ON PATTERSON NEAR 12TH ST BLOCKING
            ROAD. TIME RADAR ESTIMATED.

&&

JRUCKMAN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
822 PM EDT SUN JUL 31 2016

VAZ046-059-010115-
CHARLOTTE-APPOMATTOX-
822 PM EDT SUN JUL 31 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT
SOUTHEASTERN APPOMATTOX AND NORTHERN CHARLOTTE COUNTIES...

AT 822 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR PAMPLIN CITY...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CHARLOTTE COURT HOUSE...
PHENIX...
RED HOUSE...
DRAKES BRANCH...
AND PAMPLIN CITY.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY CAUSE
LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

LAT...LON 3689 7859 3717 7884 3720 7882 3721 7886
      3724 7887 3743 7871 3740 7863 3738 7863
      3738 7860 3734 7860 3727 7868 3720 7869
      3719 7868 3719 7864 3717 7864 3714 7859
      3715 7855 3713 7851 3708 7848
TIME...MOT...LOC 0022Z 311DEG 21KT 3724 7874

JH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
944 PM EDT SUN JUL 31 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0633 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 NNW BUCKINGHAM        37.62N 78.59W
07/31/2016                   BUCKINGHAM         VA   911 CALL CENTER

            TWO TREES DOWN ON ROUTE 602.

&&

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1044 PM EDT SUN JUL 31 2016

NCZ004-005-010345-
ROCKINGHAM-STOKES-
1044 PM EDT SUN JUL 31 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT
SOUTHEASTERN STOKES AND WESTERN ROCKINGHAM COUNTIES...

AT 1044 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR PINE HALL...MOVING
EAST AT 20 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
EDEN...
REIDSVILLE...
WENTWORTH...
MAYODAN...
AND MADISON.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY CAUSE
LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

LAT...LON 3626 8018 3642 8018 3649 7966 3625 7964
TIME...MOT...LOC 0244Z 262DEG 17KT 3635 8011

RS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1234 AM EDT MON AUG 1 2016

NCZ019-020-010530-
WILKES-YADKIN-
1234 AM EDT MON AUG 1 2016

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT YADKIN AND SOUTHEASTERN WILKES
COUNTIES THROUGH 130 AM EDT...

AT 1233 AM EDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDED ALONG A LINE FROM
NEAR WINDY GAP TO NEAR HARMONY...AND WERE MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ELKIN...
YADKINVILLE...
JONESVILLE...
BOONVILLE...
AND EAST BEND.

VERY HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY
CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

LAT...LON 3606 8096 3612 8105 3624 8088 3624 8087
      3625 8081 3625 8080 3627 8078 3627 8068
      3625 8067 3628 8063 3629 8063 3627 8060
      3629 8055 3626 8053 3626 8049 3622 8043
      3621 8045 3614 8044 3609 8051 3605 8050
TIME...MOT...LOC 0433Z 231DEG 12KT 3612 8092 3601 8077

RAB

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