Alert archive / Virginia / Special Weather Statements in 2016

Special Weather Statement, NWS Blacksburg, VA

July 31, 2016Charlotte County, Virginia

NWS Blacksburg, VA issued this special weather statement at Jul 31, 2016, 8:22 PM EDT for Charlotte County, Virginia. It was in force for 53 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jul 31, 2016, 8:22 PM EDT (00:22 UTC)
Expired: Jul 31, 2016, 9:15 PM EDT
In force: 53 min
Issued by: NWS Blacksburg, VA

County Charlotte County, VA

The radar

The Roanoke radar (KFCX), 144 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 00:22 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Greensboro/Hi Pt, NC (KGSO), launched 00:00Z, 0.4 hours before the alert went out and 167 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 537 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -66 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1704 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 22 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 40 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 64 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.1

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

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What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this special weather statement went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Blacksburg, VA wrote its last area forecast discussion before this special weather statement went out at Jul 31, 7:15 PM EDT, 1 hour 7 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 31, 7:15 PM EDT, 1 hour 7 minutes before

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
715 PM EDT Sun Jul 31 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move south through the area and stall near or
south of the Virginia, North Carolina border. By Thursday, the
front will lift north through the region again, and stall once
again. It will continue to be the focus for additional showers
and storms into the upcoming weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 235 PM EDT Sunday...

Models vary on activity this afternoon/evening in terms of where
best coverage will occur. The 12z GFS and to some extent the Euro
showing higher threat in the mountains of WV down toward the NC
foothills, while the high-res models and 12z nam favor more of the
foothills to piedmont. Will favor the east more given better low lvl
convergence and higher theta-e. Still some decent coverage possible
further northwest toward the Alleghany Highlands closer to the upper
vort moving across from Ohio to MD. Will continue to have high
chance to low likely mainly from Rockbridge south to the Blue
Ridge/Foothills of Patrick/Surry county east, with more 30/40 pops in
the west with less threat in the southwest toward the NC/TN border.

As we head into tonight the upper wave passes across PA/MD and sends
the frontal boundary south toward our forecast area. With sfc
convergence and lingering moisture will keep at least slight chance
of showers southeast overnight. Most models agree with this though
the NAM pops up a few showers further north which could happen but
think the threat is low.

Fog will be prevalent again late tonight especially if it clears
enough. Some moisture may stick around with the front, but best fog
threat will be in the mountains and valleys. Lows tonight to range
from the lower to mid 60s west to lower 70s southeast.

Monday should see somewhat drier weather as front drops slightly
south toward the NC/VA border. Confidence low that entire forecast
will be dry though as another 1 to 2 upper waves pass across and
some sfc trough may send the front slightly north again in the
afternoon. Still best threat for storms Monday afternoon will be in
southern Virginia into NC with isolated coverage north of a
Bluefield to Roanoke to Lynchburg line.

Going with some lower dewpoints in the north compared to today so a
little less humid. Still temperatures should manage to reach typical
1st of August norms or just a degree or two higher, with lower 80s
west to around 90 east.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 300 PM EDT Sunday...

During this portion of the forecast the region will transition from
being under the influence of an upper level trough to being under an
upper level ridge. While not reducing our precipitation chances to
zero, this transition will result in a trend towards less afternoon
convection, especially on Tuesday. Wednesday afternoon may see more
coverage than Tuesday as the center of the upper ridge shifts to our
east. Little in the way of temperature change is expected through
the period. Highs in the low to mid 80s will be common across the
mountains with upper 80s to around 90 across the Piedmont. Lows in
the low to mid 60s across the mountains and upper 60s to near 70
across the Piedmont are expected.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
During this portion of the forecast the shortwave upper ridge will
continue its shift east, and then south of the area. A stronger
shortwave trough will traverse the Great Lakes region all while our
area transitions to a nearly zonal flow. The result will a period of
increased chances of daily showers and storms as we develop a train
of moisture wrapping clockwise around the upper high, across our
region, having its origins from the western Gulf of Mexico.

Temperatures will on Thursday will just slightly cooler than recent
days, but by the weekend rebound back to readings comparable to
earlier in the week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 656 PM EDT Sunday...

Band of deeper convection continues to oscillate along a KBCB-
KROA-KLYH line and will likely affect some of these locations past
sunset. However given pulse nature, hard to determine if a
shra/tsra will directly impact one of the sites so keeping a VCTS
including a tempo group during the next couple of hours. Otherwise
expecting convection to remain quite isolated elsewhere but enough
to include some mention until shortly after loss of heating.

Overnight fog will be an issue espcly where rainfall has occurred and
in the river valleys. Confidence high enough to have at least IFR
or worse at KLWB/KBCB and KLYH late tonight. Not as confident in
how low KBLF/KDAN get as some models keeping them no worse than
MVFR while fog/stratus quite iffy at KBLF but will leave in MVFR,
just delayed until well after midnight.

As usual any fog/stratus should be gone by mid morning Monday
with VFR expected thereafter with cu fields again building during
the afternoon.

Extended aviation discussion...

The weak cold front will sag through the region Monday night before
stalling just south of the area into midweek. This should briefly
push deeper moisture to the south by Tuesday with mainly isolated
convection Tuesday and perhaps mainly south/east of the taf sites
Wednesday. Moisture will return north by Thursday ahead of the
next upstream cold front with shra/tsra likely Thursday afternoon
and again Friday.

Thus VFR conditions are expected for most of the time, with the
exception being temporary sub-VFR conditions with any shower or
thunderstorm, and during the night with patchy fog and stratus.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...WP
NEAR TERM...WP
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...AMS/JH/WP

Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 31, 1:01 PM EDT, 7 hours 21 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
101 PM EDT SUN JUL 31 2016

NCZ003>006-019-020-VAZ016-017-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059-011715-
SURRY-STOKES-ROCKINGHAM-CASWELL-WILKES-YADKIN-CARROLL-FLOYD-ROANOKE-
BOTETOURT-ROCKBRIDGE-PATRICK-FRANKLIN-BEDFORD-AMHERST-HENRY-
PITTSYLVANIA-CAMPBELL-APPOMATTOX-BUCKINGHAM-HALIFAX-CHARLOTTE-
101 PM EDT SUN JUL 31 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA...NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTH
CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

A FEW STORMS THIS AFTERNOON COULD BRING ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS TO
THE AREA. HEAVY DOWNPOURS COULD ALSO LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NCZ001-002-018-VAZ007-009>015-018>020-WVZ042>044-507-508-011715-
ASHE-ALLEGHANY NC-WATAUGA-TAZEWELL-SMYTH-BLAND-GILES-WYTHE-PULASKI-
MONTGOMERY-GRAYSON-CRAIG-ALLEGHANY VA-BATH-MERCER-SUMMERS-MONROE-
EASTERN GREENBRIER-WESTERN GREENBRIER-
101 PM EDT SUN JUL 31 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST NORTH
CAROLINA...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEAST
WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Jul 31, 5:07 PM EDT, 3 hours 15 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
507 PM EDT SUN JUL 31 2016

VAZ018-022-023-033-034-312145-
CRAIG-ROANOKE-BOTETOURT-BEDFORD-FRANKLIN-
507 PM EDT SUN JUL 31 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT
EAST CENTRAL CRAIG...ROANOKE...NORTHEASTERN FRANKLIN...SOUTHWESTERN
BOTETOURT AND SOUTHWESTERN BEDFORD COUNTIES...THE CITY OF SALEM AND
THE CITY OF ROANOKE...

AT 506 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS DEVELOPING NEAR
SALEM...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ROANOKE...
SALEM...
VINTON...
TROUTVILLE...
AND STEWARTSVILLE.

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS THE SALEM FAIRGROUNDS AND
ROANOKE REGIONAL AIRPORT.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY CAUSE
LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

LAT...LON 3729 8019 3753 8003 3720 7951 3698 7969
TIME...MOT...LOC 2106Z 303DEG 20KT 3733 8005

JH

Special weather statement, Jul 31, 6:09 PM EDT, 2 hours 13 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
609 PM EDT SUN JUL 31 2016

VAZ047-312315-
BUCKINGHAM-
609 PM EDT SUN JUL 31 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT
BUCKINGHAM COUNTY...

AT 609 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS OVER WINGINA...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BUCKINGHAM...
DILLWYN...
CENTENARY...
ANDERSONVILLE...
AND WINGINA.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 3762 7826 3735 7846 3763 7882 3764 7880
      3763 7874 3764 7872 3767 7872 3768 7869
      3770 7869 3768 7866 3768 7864 3771 7865
      3773 7864 3775 7862 3765 7825
TIME...MOT...LOC 2209Z 310DEG 19KT 3766 7869

JH

Special weather statement, Jul 31, 6:28 PM EDT, 1 hour 54 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
628 PM EDT SUN JUL 31 2016

VAZ034-035-045-046-312330-
APPOMATTOX-AMHERST-CAMPBELL-BEDFORD-
628 PM EDT SUN JUL 31 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT
NORTHWESTERN APPOMATTOX...AMHERST...NORTH CENTRAL CAMPBELL AND
NORTHEASTERN BEDFORD COUNTIES AND THE CITY OF LYNCHBURG...

AT 628 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR SEDALIA...MOVING EAST
AT 30 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LYNCHBURG...
BEDFORD...
AMHERST...
CLIFFORD...
AND BIG ISLAND.

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS LIBERTY UNIVERSITY AND THE
NATIONAL D DAY MEMORIAL.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY CAUSE
LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 3729 7958 3751 7953 3770 7899 3755 7890
      3754 7883 3755 7882 3752 7878 3739 7873
TIME...MOT...LOC 2228Z 260DEG 26KT 3744 7942

JH

Local storm report, Jul 31, 7:58 PM EDT, 24 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
758 PM EDT SUN JUL 31 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0518 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 NNW ROANOKE           37.34N 80.00W
07/31/2016                   ROANOKE            VA   911 CALL CENTER

            TREE BLOCKING LOCH HAVEN DR. TIME RADAR ESTIMATED.

&&

JRUCKMAN

Local storm report, Jul 31, 8:03 PM EDT, 19 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
803 PM EDT SUN JUL 31 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0535 PM     TSTM WND DMG     SSW ROANOKE             37.27N 79.96W
07/31/2016                   CITY OF ROANOKE    VA   911 CALL CENTER

            MULTIPLE TREES DOWN ON PATTERSON NEAR 12TH ST BLOCKING
            ROAD. TIME RADAR ESTIMATED.

&&

JRUCKMAN

Special weather statement, Jul 31, 8:22 PM EDT, 0 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
822 PM EDT SUN JUL 31 2016

VAZ046-059-010115-
CHARLOTTE-APPOMATTOX-
822 PM EDT SUN JUL 31 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT
SOUTHEASTERN APPOMATTOX AND NORTHERN CHARLOTTE COUNTIES...

AT 822 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR PAMPLIN CITY...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CHARLOTTE COURT HOUSE...
PHENIX...
RED HOUSE...
DRAKES BRANCH...
AND PAMPLIN CITY.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY CAUSE
LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

LAT...LON 3689 7859 3717 7884 3720 7882 3721 7886
      3724 7887 3743 7871 3740 7863 3738 7863
      3738 7860 3734 7860 3727 7868 3720 7869
      3719 7868 3719 7864 3717 7864 3714 7859
      3715 7855 3713 7851 3708 7848
TIME...MOT...LOC 0022Z 311DEG 21KT 3724 7874

JH

The office that day

Everything else NWS Blacksburg, VA issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jul 31, 9:29 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	RNK	Rockingham, Stokes	16 min
Jul 31, 10:44 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	RNK	Rockingham	61 min
Aug 1, 12:34 AM EDT	Special Weather Statement	RNK	Yadkin	56 min
Aug 1, 12:53 AM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	RNK	Yadkin	54 min
Aug 1, 1:52 AM EDT	Special Weather Statement	RNK	Stokes	53 min

Nearby

Special Weather Statements in Virginia, 2016 Every special weather statement in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.