Special Weather Statement, NWS Blacksburg, VA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
405 PM EDT FRI JUL 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure crossing the Great Lakes will push a cold front into
the Ohio Valley tonight, then closer to the mid Atlantic region
on Saturday. This front will remain in the area through Tuesday.
High pressure stays over the Gulf of Mexico through the end of the
weekend, with another high building over the northeast United
States on Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
As of 405 PM EDT Friday...

Flash Flood Watch remains in effect until Midnight for Southeast
West Virginia and Tazewell county in Southwest Virginia.

Severe Thunderstorm Watch 360 remains in effect until 10 pm
tonight.

MCV and associated convective cluster will move southeast across our
region this afternoon into tonight. Showers and thunderstorms
with rainfall rates of 2-3 inches per hour possible. Flash flood
watch placed in an area with lower FFG guidance and wet antecedent
conditions. The potential exists for watch to be expanded further
if conditions warrant. The orientation, movement and any training
of storms may result in flooding.

There is also the severe potential with thunderstorms this afternoon
into tonight. The line of convection across southern West Virginia
will maintain forward propagation and a damaging winds and hail
threat. Storms are moving into unstable airmass and the turn to
the southeast of the cluster has started this afternoon.

A cold front will bring another opportunity for showers and
thunderstorms as it crosses late tonight. Questions remain on
the strength of convection with the loss of solar heating and
stabilization behind first round of convection. The combination of
low level moisture and light winds will result in pockets of fog
overnight. Low temperatures tonight will range from the mid 60s in
the west to the lower 70s in the east.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 200 PM EDT Friday...

Main wave will pushing east by Saturday morning with models showing
some convection possible in the nw flow behind it southwest VA into
the NC mountains during the day. Will focus chance pops here with
slight chance along western slopes of WV with little/no threat
elsewhere.

Mainly dry as we head into Saturday night-Sunday with temperatures
sliding back to normal. We are looking at another shortwave entering
the area Monday with the 00z ECM more robust than the GFS/NAM and
faster. Could be active Monday if the ECMWF is right. Still decent
support and signals in all models to have 30-45 pops Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 120 PM EDT Friday...

Keeping close to a blend of previous forecast and trend warmer as
models favoring northward flavor for 5h pattern and frontal
boundary. Looks like a decent wave moves across Monday night into
Tuesday with 00z ECMWF more progressive with the upper flow and
slower than the 12z GFS. Keeping pops chance range with 30-45 range.
Variation on track of the low and any convective system is still
questionable.

Once this passes, the upper pattern stays similar with main track of
systems from the Northern Rockies to the Great Lakes. Any sharper
trough or mesoscale convective system could see to the area getting
chance of storms each day through Thursday-Friday, but models are
not in good agreement so will nudge pops higher during the day and
less at night after Tuesday. The 12z GFS still favors 5h heights
lower than the 00z ECMWF by the end of the week. Nonetheless expect
typical mid July weather.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 145 PM EDT Friday...

MCV and associated convective cluster will drop southeast across
southwest Virginia and northwest North Carolina this afternoon
into tonight. Scattered MVFR/isolated IFR showers and
thunderstorms will develop and move eastward across our region
this afternoon into tonight. Any of the stronger showers and
thunderstorms may have locally heavy rains and wind gusts up to 40
knots. Outside of convection, westerly winds may gust up to 25
knots this afternoon into this evening. Convection and winds will
diminish this evening into tonight. Isolated mvfr showers or
thunderstorms may be possible in the west on Saturday.

Medium confidence on ceilings,visibilities and winds during the
taf period.

Extended aviation discussion...

Convection should be on the decrease Saturday night into
Sunday as the shortwave track and associated frontal
boundary/baroclinic zone shift to our south. Still potential for
some isolated to scattered pop-up convection with diurnal heating,
but main threat should shift into the Southeast states over the
weekend. Frontal boundary will drift back north early next week
with increasing threat for convection at that time. Mostly VFR
conditions expected for the weekend outside of late night/early
morning fog and MVFR cigs in areas of scattered
showers/thunderstorms during the afternoons/evenings. Given a
change from W-NW flow aloft to SW flow aloft and weak
dynamics/flow aloft, a pattern of more diurnal/mountain convection
seems more favorable.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Mesoscale convective system to move into portions of SE WV into
far SW VA this afternoon with rainfall rates of 2-3 inches per
hour possible. Orientation of the convection should be more north
to south than east to west, limiting training but given lower FFG
guidance and wet antecedent conditions will hoist a flash flood
watch for SE WV into Tazewell County VA til midnight. Potential
exists for this to be expanded further if conditions warrant,
especially southward over the rest of SW VA west of I-77 into the
NC mountains.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...Flash Flood Watch until midnight EDT tonight for VAZ007.
NC...None.
WV...Flash Flood Watch until midnight EDT tonight for WVZ042>044-
     507-508.

&&

SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...KK
SHORT TERM...WP
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...KK
HYDROLOGY...WP

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
510 AM EDT FRI JUL 8 2016

NCZ004>006-020-VAZ033-034-043>047-058-059-091000-
STOKES-ROCKINGHAM-CASWELL-YADKIN-FRANKLIN-BEDFORD-HENRY-PITTSYLVANIA-
CAMPBELL-APPOMATTOX-BUCKINGHAM-HALIFAX-CHARLOTTE-
510 AM EDT FRI JUL 8 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA...NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTH
CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE PRIMARY THREAT IS DAMAGING WINDS.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY WITH ANY OF THE STRONGER STORMS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE HOT THIS AFTERNOON WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES REACHING
AROUND 100 DEGREES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NCZ001>003-018-019-VAZ007-009>020-022>024-032-035-WVZ042>044-507-508-
091000-
ASHE-ALLEGHANY NC-SURRY-WATAUGA-WILKES-TAZEWELL-SMYTH-BLAND-GILES-
WYTHE-PULASKI-MONTGOMERY-GRAYSON-CARROLL-FLOYD-CRAIG-ALLEGHANY VA-
BATH-ROANOKE-BOTETOURT-ROCKBRIDGE-PATRICK-AMHERST-MERCER-SUMMERS-
MONROE-EASTERN GREENBRIER-WESTERN GREENBRIER-
510 AM EDT FRI JUL 8 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA...NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA...WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE PRIMARY THREAT IS DAMAGING WINDS.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY WITH ANY OF THE STRONGER STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
416 PM EDT FRI JUL 8 2016

VAZ014-082045-
MONTGOMERY-
416 PM EDT FRI JUL 8 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT
SOUTHEASTERN MONTGOMERY COUNTY...

AT 416 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS OVER CHRISTIANSBURG...
MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH AND HALF INCH HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CHRISTIANSBURG...
AND CROCKETT SPRINGS.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY CAUSE
LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

LAT...LON 3713 8044 3717 8039 3713 8020 3712 8018
      3711 8019 3710 8021 3708 8028 3704 8033
TIME...MOT...LOC 2016Z 300DEG 13KT 3713 8038

JJM

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