Severe Thunderstorm Warning 174, NWS Blacksburg, VA

569 
WWUS51 KRNK 082301
SVSRNK

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
701 PM EDT FRI JUL 8 2016

NCC033-082330-
/O.CON.KRNK.SV.W.0174.000000T0000Z-160708T2330Z/
CASWELL NC-
701 PM EDT FRI JUL 8 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 730 PM EDT
FOR
CASWELL COUNTY...

AT 701 PM EDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM LEASBURG TO NEAR HIGHTOWERS TO CAMP SPRINGS...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO 
         ROOFS...SIDING...AND TREES. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
YANCEYVILLE...
BETHEL...
PROSPECT HILL...
JERICHO...
AND CAMP SPRINGS. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. FOR YOUR
SAFETY...MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY
BUILDING. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

WHEN IT IS SAFE TO DO SO...PLEASE SEND YOUR REPORTS OF HAIL OF ANY
SIZE...AS WELL AS ANY REPORTS OF WIND DAMAGE...INCLUDING DOWNED TREES
OR LARGE LIMBS...TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL FREE
AT 1...8 6 6...2 1 5...4 3 2 4. REPORTS AND PICTURES CAN ALSO BE
SHARED ON THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG FACEBOOK PAGE AND
ON TWITTER.

&&

LAT...LON 3625 7946 3634 7953 3644 7946 3648 7943
      3648 7930 3643 7915 3624 7916
TIME...MOT...LOC 2301Z 298DEG 26KT 3641 7916 3630 7925 3629 7948 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

WP

756 
WWUS51 KRNK 082326
SVSRNK

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
726 PM EDT FRI JUL 8 2016

NCC033-082336-
/O.EXP.KRNK.SV.W.0174.000000T0000Z-160708T2330Z/
CASWELL NC-
726 PM EDT FRI JUL 8 2016

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR 
CASWELL COUNTY WILL EXPIRE AT 730 PM EDT...
    
THE STORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAVE MOVED OUT OF THE AREA.
THEREFORE THE WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM EDT FOR
NORTH CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA.

WHEN IT IS SAFE TO DO SO...PLEASE SEND YOUR REPORTS OF HAIL OF ANY
SIZE...AS WELL AS ANY REPORTS OF WIND DAMAGE...INCLUDING DOWNED TREES
OR LARGE LIMBS...TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL FREE
AT 1...8 6 6...2 1 5...4 3 2 4. REPORTS AND PICTURES CAN ALSO BE
SHARED ON THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG FACEBOOK PAGE AND
ON TWITTER.

LAT...LON 3625 7946 3634 7953 3644 7946 3648 7943
      3648 7930 3643 7915 3624 7916
TIME...MOT...LOC 2323Z 314DEG 22KT 3641 7916 3630 7925 3629 7948 

$$

WP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
405 PM EDT FRI JUL 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure crossing the Great Lakes will push a cold front into
the Ohio Valley tonight, then closer to the mid Atlantic region
on Saturday. This front will remain in the area through Tuesday.
High pressure stays over the Gulf of Mexico through the end of the
weekend, with another high building over the northeast United
States on Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
As of 405 PM EDT Friday...

Flash Flood Watch remains in effect until Midnight for Southeast
West Virginia and Tazewell county in Southwest Virginia.

Severe Thunderstorm Watch 360 remains in effect until 10 pm
tonight.

MCV and associated convective cluster will move southeast across our
region this afternoon into tonight. Showers and thunderstorms
with rainfall rates of 2-3 inches per hour possible. Flash flood
watch placed in an area with lower FFG guidance and wet antecedent
conditions. The potential exists for watch to be expanded further
if conditions warrant. The orientation, movement and any training
of storms may result in flooding.

There is also the severe potential with thunderstorms this afternoon
into tonight. The line of convection across southern West Virginia
will maintain forward propagation and a damaging winds and hail
threat. Storms are moving into unstable airmass and the turn to
the southeast of the cluster has started this afternoon.

A cold front will bring another opportunity for showers and
thunderstorms as it crosses late tonight. Questions remain on
the strength of convection with the loss of solar heating and
stabilization behind first round of convection. The combination of
low level moisture and light winds will result in pockets of fog
overnight. Low temperatures tonight will range from the mid 60s in
the west to the lower 70s in the east.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 200 PM EDT Friday...

Main wave will pushing east by Saturday morning with models showing
some convection possible in the nw flow behind it southwest VA into
the NC mountains during the day. Will focus chance pops here with
slight chance along western slopes of WV with little/no threat
elsewhere.

Mainly dry as we head into Saturday night-Sunday with temperatures
sliding back to normal. We are looking at another shortwave entering
the area Monday with the 00z ECM more robust than the GFS/NAM and
faster. Could be active Monday if the ECMWF is right. Still decent
support and signals in all models to have 30-45 pops Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 120 PM EDT Friday...

Keeping close to a blend of previous forecast and trend warmer as
models favoring northward flavor for 5h pattern and frontal
boundary. Looks like a decent wave moves across Monday night into
Tuesday with 00z ECMWF more progressive with the upper flow and
slower than the 12z GFS. Keeping pops chance range with 30-45 range.
Variation on track of the low and any convective system is still
questionable.

Once this passes, the upper pattern stays similar with main track of
systems from the Northern Rockies to the Great Lakes. Any sharper
trough or mesoscale convective system could see to the area getting
chance of storms each day through Thursday-Friday, but models are
not in good agreement so will nudge pops higher during the day and
less at night after Tuesday. The 12z GFS still favors 5h heights
lower than the 00z ECMWF by the end of the week. Nonetheless expect
typical mid July weather.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 145 PM EDT Friday...

MCV and associated convective cluster will drop southeast across
southwest Virginia and northwest North Carolina this afternoon
into tonight. Scattered MVFR/isolated IFR showers and
thunderstorms will develop and move eastward across our region
this afternoon into tonight. Any of the stronger showers and
thunderstorms may have locally heavy rains and wind gusts up to 40
knots. Outside of convection, westerly winds may gust up to 25
knots this afternoon into this evening. Convection and winds will
diminish this evening into tonight. Isolated mvfr showers or
thunderstorms may be possible in the west on Saturday.

Medium confidence on ceilings,visibilities and winds during the
taf period.

Extended aviation discussion...

Convection should be on the decrease Saturday night into
Sunday as the shortwave track and associated frontal
boundary/baroclinic zone shift to our south. Still potential for
some isolated to scattered pop-up convection with diurnal heating,
but main threat should shift into the Southeast states over the
weekend. Frontal boundary will drift back north early next week
with increasing threat for convection at that time. Mostly VFR
conditions expected for the weekend outside of late night/early
morning fog and MVFR cigs in areas of scattered
showers/thunderstorms during the afternoons/evenings. Given a
change from W-NW flow aloft to SW flow aloft and weak
dynamics/flow aloft, a pattern of more diurnal/mountain convection
seems more favorable.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Mesoscale convective system to move into portions of SE WV into
far SW VA this afternoon with rainfall rates of 2-3 inches per
hour possible. Orientation of the convection should be more north
to south than east to west, limiting training but given lower FFG
guidance and wet antecedent conditions will hoist a flash flood
watch for SE WV into Tazewell County VA til midnight. Potential
exists for this to be expanded further if conditions warrant,
especially southward over the rest of SW VA west of I-77 into the
NC mountains.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...Flash Flood Watch until midnight EDT tonight for VAZ007.
NC...None.
WV...Flash Flood Watch until midnight EDT tonight for WVZ042>044-
     507-508.

&&

SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...KK
SHORT TERM...WP
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...KK
HYDROLOGY...WP

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
510 AM EDT FRI JUL 8 2016

NCZ004>006-020-VAZ033-034-043>047-058-059-091000-
STOKES-ROCKINGHAM-CASWELL-YADKIN-FRANKLIN-BEDFORD-HENRY-PITTSYLVANIA-
CAMPBELL-APPOMATTOX-BUCKINGHAM-HALIFAX-CHARLOTTE-
510 AM EDT FRI JUL 8 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA...NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTH
CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE PRIMARY THREAT IS DAMAGING WINDS.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY WITH ANY OF THE STRONGER STORMS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE HOT THIS AFTERNOON WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES REACHING
AROUND 100 DEGREES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NCZ001>003-018-019-VAZ007-009>020-022>024-032-035-WVZ042>044-507-508-
091000-
ASHE-ALLEGHANY NC-SURRY-WATAUGA-WILKES-TAZEWELL-SMYTH-BLAND-GILES-
WYTHE-PULASKI-MONTGOMERY-GRAYSON-CARROLL-FLOYD-CRAIG-ALLEGHANY VA-
BATH-ROANOKE-BOTETOURT-ROCKBRIDGE-PATRICK-AMHERST-MERCER-SUMMERS-
MONROE-EASTERN GREENBRIER-WESTERN GREENBRIER-
510 AM EDT FRI JUL 8 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA...NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA...WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE PRIMARY THREAT IS DAMAGING WINDS.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY WITH ANY OF THE STRONGER STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
550 PM EDT FRI JUL 08 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0405 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 NNE PIPESTEM          37.54N 80.96W
07/08/2016                   SUMMERS            WV   BROADCAST MEDIA

            A TREE WAS BLOWN DOWN ONTO A CAR ALONG ROUTE 20 NEAR THE
            COMMUNITY OF PIPESTEM. THIS REPORT WAS SUBMITTED BY A
            MEMEBER OF THE PUBLIC AND RELAYED THROUGH LOCAL MEDIA.

&&

16

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
606 PM EDT FRI JUL 08 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0550 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 ESE PENHOOK           36.96N 79.58W
07/08/2016                   PITTSYLVANIA       VA   PUBLIC

            A LARGE TREE WAS BLOWN DOWN ONTO A FENCE.

&&

16

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
608 PM EDT FRI JUL 8 2016

NCZ001-002-018-019-082315-
WILKES-WATAUGA-ASHE-ALLEGHANY-
608 PM EDT FRI JUL 8 2016

...AN AREA OF NUMEROUS STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT WESTERN
WILKES...WATAUGA...WESTERN ALLEGHANY AND ASHE COUNTIES...

AT 607 PM EDT...AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS NEAR ABINGDON...
MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 MPH AND NICKEL SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BOONE...
WILKESBORO...
JEFFERSON...
WEST JEFFERSON...
AND BLOWING ROCK.

THIS INCLUDES APPALACHIAN STATE UNIVERSITY.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY CAUSE
LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...AND A WARNING MAY NEED TO BE ISSUED
LATER...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND TV STATIONS...AS
WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION AND
POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 3602 8135 3604 8140 3607 8141 3612 8155
      3611 8181 3616 8183 3621 8190 3629 8192
      3630 8190 3636 8180 3634 8177 3634 8171
      3638 8173 3639 8170 3653 8171 3659 8168
      3657 8114 3603 8119 3603 8127 3600 8132
TIME...MOT...LOC 2207Z 287DEG 28KT 3665 8190

JJM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
618 PM EDT FRI JUL 08 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0515 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 WNW STEWARTSVILLE     37.28N 79.85W
07/08/2016                   ROANOKE            VA   AMATEUR RADIO

            MULTIPLE LIMBS AT LEAST 12 INCHES IN DIAMETER WERE BLOWN
            DOWN.

0520 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 SW STEWARTSVILLE      37.26N 79.81W
07/08/2016                   BEDFORD            VA   AMATEUR RADIO

            ONE TREE TWO FEET IN DIAMETER WAS BLOWN DOWN AND WAS
            BLOCKING PART OF TURNER BRANCH ROAD.

&&

16

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
626 PM EDT FRI JUL 8 2016

NCZ003-VAZ016-032-082245-
SURRY-CARROLL-PATRICK-
626 PM EDT FRI JUL 8 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT
NORTHEASTERN SURRY...SOUTHWESTERN PATRICK AND SOUTHEASTERN CARROLL
COUNTIES...

AT 626 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS OVER LAMBSBURG...MOVING
EAST AT 45 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH AND DIME SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MOUNT AIRY...
FLAT ROCK...
CANA...
ARARAT...
AND FANCY GAP.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY CAUSE
LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

LAT...LON 3656 8084 3666 8083 3667 8044 3649 8045
TIME...MOT...LOC 2226Z 276DEG 40KT 3662 8076

JJM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
634 PM EDT FRI JUL 08 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0535 PM     TSTM WND DMG     BASSETT                 36.77N 79.98W
07/08/2016                   HENRY              VA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            MULTIPLE LARGE TREES WERE BLOWN DOWN IN THE COMMUNITY OF
            BASSETT.

0555 PM     TSTM WND DMG     AXTON                   36.67N 79.72W
07/08/2016                   HENRY              VA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            MULTIPLE TREES WERE BLOWN DOWN IN THE COMMUNITY OF AXTON.

0555 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 SW MARTINSVILLE CITY  36.64N 79.93W
07/08/2016                   HENRY              VA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            A TREE WAS BLOWN DOWN ONTO A HOME ALONG FRIENDLY CHURCH
            ROAD.

&&

16