Special Weather Statement, NWS Blacksburg, VA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
310 PM EDT THU JUN 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Tropical depression Bonnie will drift north off the Outer Banks
tonight ahead of a weak cold front approaching from the
northwest. This front should cross the area Friday into Friday
night before lifting back north ahead of a much stronger cold
front that will pass through the region Sunday. Drier and somewhat
cooler weather is expected next week following Sunday's frontal
passage.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 230 PM EDT Thursday...

Bands of convection have fired across the southern Blue Ridge along an
axis of 1500 J/KG MUCAPE, and continue to fill in farther west along
the I-77 corridor where moisture convergence remains strong ahead of a
weak boundary just west of the ridges. Latest HRRR continues to
organize the clusters of deeper convection over the west and eventually
slides coverage east into weak subsidence lingering east of the Blue
Ridge over the next few hours. These again primarily slow moving very
heavy rain producers although cells remain a bit deeper today given
slightly better support under unidirectional flow. This supports
bumping pops to likely or higher in all except the far southeast with
potential to see added redevelopment off outflow west until instability
is completely worked over. Some solutions then tending to remove any
leftover shra/tsra shortly after dark while others including the Nam
and HRRR keep at least some showers around until after midnight so
leaving in decent pops into the overnight. Otherwise expecting another
round of dense fog espcly in spots that saw heavy rain. Lows again
similar to the past few nights with low/mid 60s except for a few 50s
in the valleys.

Surface cold front approaches from the west Friday preceded by decent
westerly flow aloft and limited upper support as heights start to rise.
Models again show best moisture convergence developing across the west
during the afternoon near the front and less in the lee of the Blue
Ridge under weak downsloping. Best progged instability also a bit less
than today and mainly across the south and east. Latest ECMWF also has
deeper convection developing just east of the area so plan to trend
pops toward likelys west early on...then eastern zones during the
afternoon with mainly chance in between. Given possible slower
development in the wake of storms from today as the current weak wave
kicks east...expecting quite a bit of heating under weak downsloping.
This may allow highs to push 90 across the Piedmont and mostly 80s
elsewhere.
&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 130 PM EDT Thursday...

Potential lull in convection may occur Friday night into the first part
of Saturday as the surface front folds to the south while the 850 mb
baroclinic zone remains just north. Still expect to see some widely
scattered shra/tsra Friday evening as the low level boundary crosses,
but given limited upper support as heights start to rise, not expecting
widespread deep convection at this point. Otherwise decreasing pops
into the overnight with another round of fog.

Front will lift slowly back north during Saturday allowing deeper warm
advection to take shape as shortwave ridging aloft starts to slide east
and weaken. However forcing not all that great until late in the day
with convection likely driven via thermodynamics and the flow turning
more southwest which should help pop bands again along the Blue Ridge.
Therefore will carry low pops to initialize on Saturday then
edging up to higher chances out east and low likelys western
ridges by late in the day. Otherwise becoming partly sunny and
still quite warm/muggy with highs 80-85 mountains, and mid/upper
80s out east.

Main problems look to develop Saturday night and moreso perhaps on
Sunday ahead of the next strong upper trough approaching from the
northwest that will drive another surface cold front into the region by
late Sunday. Energy shearing northeast out of the residual upper system
to the southwest will work up ahead of the boundary Saturday night.
Models show increasing shower coverage Saturday night with embedded
deeper convection as winds aloft back and shear increases. This may
result in some late night severe threat if storms can organize. Best
shot at deeper convection will occur Sunday as the surface front
coincides with residual tropical moisture. However still questions with
the timing of the pre-frontal convection as guidance shows quite a bit
of deeper moisture over the west with better instability out east
during the afternoon. Appears may be a scenario where early morning
coverage fades crossing the ridges before evolving back to multiple
bands in the afternoon with the deeper convection and best severe
potential out east. Kept temps closer to the cooler consensus in the
west where should stay in the 70s while the east bounces back into the
low/mid 80s especially if afternoon showers are slower.
&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT Thursday...

A much drier and comfortable reprieve from showers and high humidity
will be in store next week as a series of cold fronts drive cooler air
into the region through midweek. Will initially have some leftover
showers/storms especially east Sunday night as the first cold front
gets booted east in advance of a piece of upper troffiness sliding
through the Ohio Valley. Appears most of this rainfall will taper after
midnight Sunday night leaving a few cool advection upslope showers over
the northwest into early Monday. Main push of the upper cold pool looks
to occur on Tuesday with an upper low rotating through the Great Lakes
and in turn propelling a secondary stronger cold front across the area
early Tuesday. This should bring another round of gusty west winds with
850 mb temps dropping to near 10-12 deg/C which is not quite as cool as
seen yesterday. However much lower dewpoint air should result in dry
weather outside of a few added upslope post frontal showers northwest
Tuesday/Tuesday night. Surface high pressure builds in Wednesday into
Thursday, as the upper trof starts to lift out, before sliding to the
east allowing continued tranquil weather with a slow rebound in
temperatures by Thursday. Overall still looking at highs mostly 70s
mountains to low 80s east with the coolest day likely Wednesday when
some highs may stay in the 60s at elevation. Lows mostly in the 50s
except some coolish 40s in the valleys early Wednesday/Thursday.
&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 1240 PM EDT Thursday...

Cloud build-ups will continue across the mountains this afternoon
with more widespread cumulus gradually spreading east as lift
crosses in from the west. This has already led to widely scattered
convection along the southern Blue Ridge and expect more in the
way of widespread coverage from west to east through the afternoon
and early evening. However whether or not any storms will directly
impact any given airport remains in question. Thus will continue
to use more of a vicinity mention or tempo in sites that look to
have the greatest threat per release coverage. Still appears that
many western sites could see a period of MVFR or worse with
perhaps multiple rounds of convection into the evening. A bit more
of a delay to the onset of shra/tsra across the east with coverage
east of the Blue Ridge likely not increasing until late afternoon.

Clusters/bands of convection may be slow to fade until after
midnight when will trend back toward areas of fog overnight.
However similar to last night, western locations may see limited
coverage due to debris clouds while things remain drier out east
and outside of any onshore flow as seen early this morning. Still
appears that most excluding KROA will see a period of sub-VFR with
westerly flow perhaps even resulting in fog/low clouds at KBLF.
Elsewhere appears more in the way of typical radiative cooling
nature fog in store given so much moisture around.

A slow moving cold front will try to cross the mountains from the
Ohio Valley late tonight, but will likely stall, becoming nearly
stationary across the Mid-Atlantic Friday. This will likely give
way to added showers and storms by the afternoon with best
coverage over the north/west to start and eventually southern and
eastern sections as the front sags in. Again think will transition
to VFR during the morning before seeing added build-ups and
convection get going in the afternoon.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

A much stronger/faster moving front will cross the area Saturday
night or Sunday. Sunday's strong frontal passage will result in
a greater coverage of showers and storms with the potential for
stronger storms pending timing of the front. After the front moves
east of the area...a much drier airmass will overtake the region
for next week.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...JH/PM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
340 PM EDT THU JUN 2 2016

NCZ001>006-018>020-VAZ007-009>020-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059-
WVZ042>044-507-508-031945-
ASHE-ALLEGHANY NC-SURRY-STOKES-ROCKINGHAM-CASWELL-WATAUGA-WILKES-
YADKIN-TAZEWELL-SMYTH-BLAND-GILES-WYTHE-PULASKI-MONTGOMERY-GRAYSON-
CARROLL-FLOYD-CRAIG-ALLEGHANY VA-BATH-ROANOKE-BOTETOURT-ROCKBRIDGE-
PATRICK-FRANKLIN-BEDFORD-AMHERST-HENRY-PITTSYLVANIA-CAMPBELL-
APPOMATTOX-BUCKINGHAM-HALIFAX-CHARLOTTE-MERCER-SUMMERS-MONROE-
EASTERN GREENBRIER-WESTERN GREENBRIER-
340 PM EDT THU JUN 2 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA...NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTH
CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SLOW MOVING BANDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PERSIST INTO THIS
EVENING. A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD BE NEAR SEVERE LIMITS WITH
LOCALLY STRONG WINDS AND HAIL. VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO POSE
THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND
FOOTHILLS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. A BETTER CHANCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS EXISTS
SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
407 PM EDT THU JUN 2 2016

NCZ019-020-022030-
WILKES-YADKIN-
407 PM EDT THU JUN 2 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN YADKIN AND
SOUTHEASTERN WILKES COUNTIES...

AT 407 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR BUCK SHOALS...MOVING
EAST AT 10 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH AND PEA SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BROOKS CROSSROADS...
BUCK SHOALS...
AND SWANCREEK.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY CAUSE
LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

LAT...LON 3606 8098 3617 8095 3619 8071 3605 8075
TIME...MOT...LOC 2007Z 271DEG 11KT 3610 8089

DS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
440 PM EDT THU JUN 2 2016

VAZ024-022145-
ROCKBRIDGE-
440 PM EDT THU JUN 2 2016

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE CITY OF
LEXINGTON...ROCKBRIDGE...AND CITY OF BUENA VISTA...

AT 439 PM EDT...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 7 MILES NORTH OF VESUVIUS TO NEAR ROCKBRIDGE BATHS...
AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH AND PEA SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS. FREQUENT CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LEXINGTON...
BUENA VISTA...
ROCKBRIDGE BATHS...
COLLIERSTOWN...
AND VESUVIUS.

THIS INCLUDES VMI.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY
CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

LAT...LON 3792 7919 3789 7915 3786 7915 3780 7918
      3779 7920 3781 7923 3779 7927 3766 7935
      3763 7940 3781 7964 3783 7962 3785 7961
      3787 7964 3800 7934
TIME...MOT...LOC 2039Z 297DEG 32KT 3801 7919 3789 7950

RAB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
509 PM EDT THU JUN 2 2016

VAZ018>020-023-022215-
CRAIG-BATH-BOTETOURT-ALLEGHANY-
509 PM EDT THU JUN 2 2016

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN CRAIG...
SOUTHWESTERN BATH...CITY OF COVINGTON...NORTHWESTERN BOTETOURT
AND ALLEGHANY COUNTIES...

AT 508 PM EDT...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDED ALONG A
LINE FROM NEAR DOUTHAT STATE PARK TO NEAR COVINGTON TO POTTS
CREEK...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
COVINGTON...
CLIFTON FORGE...
HOT SPRINGS...
EAGLE ROCK...
AND ORISKANY.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY
CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

LAT...LON 3791 7963 3787 7965 3786 7961 3783 7962
      3760 7977 3753 8021 3758 8030 3762 8022
      3766 8028 3769 8030 3773 8026 3779 8010
      3802 7984
TIME...MOT...LOC 2108Z 301DEG 32KT 3788 7975 3771 7995 3761 8023

RAB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
537 PM EDT THU JUN 02 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0530 PM     HEAVY RAIN       3 SE ROCKBRIDGE BATHS   37.87N 79.38W
06/02/2016  M1.51 INCH       ROCKBRIDGE         VA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            1.51 INCHES OF RAIN IN 45 MINUTES.

&&

JMORROW

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
554 PM EDT THU JUN 2 2016

VAZ009-015-022245-
SMYTH-GRAYSON-
554 PM EDT THU JUN 2 2016

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SMYTH AND WESTERN GRAYSON COUNTIES
THROUGH 645 PM EDT...

AT 549 PM EDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING ACROSS SMYTH
AND WESTERN GRAYSON COUNTIES...NEAR CHILHOWIE...JUST NORTHWEST OF MARION...
AND JUST SOUTH OF ADWOLF. THE THUNDERSTORMS WERE MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

PEA SIZED HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS. FREQUENT
CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED
WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MARION...
SALTVILLE...
CHILHOWIE...
WHITETOP...
AND MOUNT ROGERS NATIONAL RECREATION AREA.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY CAUSE
LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

LAT...LON 3699 8147 3668 8127 3658 8155 3659 8164
      3661 8165 3662 8162 3664 8161 3663 8162
      3664 8162 3679 8170 3687 8178
TIME...MOT...LOC 2149Z 225DEG 8KT 3686 8160

RAB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
613 PM EDT THU JUN 2 2016

NCZ005-022315-
ROCKINGHAM-
613 PM EDT THU JUN 2 2016

...AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN ROCKINGHAM COUNTY...

AT 611 PM EDT...AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS OVER BETHANY...
MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 5 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH AND PEA SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM. VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FREQUENT CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING CAN
BE EXPECTED WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
REIDSVILLE...
BETHANY...
MONROETON...
ELLISBORO...
AND HAW RIVER STATE PARK.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY CAUSE
LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

LAT...LON 3626 8003 3636 8003 3635 7953 3624 7953
TIME...MOT...LOC 2211Z 296DEG 6KT 3630 7982

RAB