Areal Flood Advisory 21, NWS Blacksburg, VA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
706 PM EDT THU JUN 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Tropical depression Bonnie will drift north off the Outer Banks
tonight ahead of a weak cold front approaching from the
northwest. This front should cross the area Friday into Friday
night before lifting back north ahead of a much stronger cold
front that will pass through the region Sunday. Drier and somewhat
cooler weather is expected next week following Sunday's frontal
passage.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 700 PM EDT Thursday...

Convection through the afternoon hours left an area of subsidence
behind it. This has lead to a broad region of limited ongoing
shower activity from roughly the Bluefield to Blacksburg to
Roanoke region. Flanked to the north, south and east of the void
of precipitation area were areas of showers and storms. The
greatest coverage of activity and also the strongest was currently
making its way north of the James River Basin, east of Lexington.
This coverage pattern is expected to continue through the next
couple of hours. After sunset, expect a general trend towards less
coverage across the area. However, additional showers and storms
are forecast to progress into the region from eastern Tennessee.

As of 230 PM EDT Thursday...

Bands of convection have fired across the southern Blue Ridge along an
axis of 1500 J/KG MUCAPE, and continue to fill in farther west along
the I-77 corridor where moisture convergence remains strong ahead of a
weak boundary just west of the ridges. Latest HRRR continues to
organize the clusters of deeper convection over the west and eventually
slides coverage east into weak subsidence lingering east of the Blue
Ridge over the next few hours. These again primarily slow moving very
heavy rain producers although cells remain a bit deeper today given
slightly better support under unidirectional flow. This supports
bumping pops to likely or higher in all except the far southeast with
potential to see added redevelopment off outflow west until instability
is completely worked over. Some solutions then tending to remove any
leftover shra/tsra shortly after dark while others including the Nam
and HRRR keep at least some showers around until after midnight so
leaving in decent pops into the overnight. Otherwise expecting another
round of dense fog espcly in spots that saw heavy rain. Lows again
similar to the past few nights with low/mid 60s except for a few 50s
in the valleys.

Surface cold front approaches from the west Friday preceded by decent
westerly flow aloft and limited upper support as heights start to rise.
Models again show best moisture convergence developing across the west
during the afternoon near the front and less in the lee of the Blue
Ridge under weak downsloping. Best progged instability also a bit less
than today and mainly across the south and east. Latest ECMWF also has
deeper convection developing just east of the area so plan to trend
pops toward likelys west early on...then eastern zones during the
afternoon with mainly chance in between. Given possible slower
development in the wake of storms from today as the current weak wave
kicks east...expecting quite a bit of heating under weak downsloping.
This may allow highs to push 90 across the Piedmont and mostly 80s
elsewhere.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 130 PM EDT Thursday...

Potential lull in convection may occur Friday night into the first part
of Saturday as the surface front folds to the south while the 850 mb
baroclinic zone remains just north. Still expect to see some widely
scattered shra/tsra Friday evening as the low level boundary crosses,
but given limited upper support as heights start to rise, not expecting
widespread deep convection at this point. Otherwise decreasing pops
into the overnight with another round of fog.

Front will lift slowly back north during Saturday allowing deeper warm
advection to take shape as shortwave ridging aloft starts to slide east
and weaken. However forcing not all that great until late in the day
with convection likely driven via thermodynamics and the flow turning
more southwest which should help pop bands again along the Blue Ridge.
Therefore will carry low pops to initialize on Saturday then
edging up to higher chances out east and low likelys western
ridges by late in the day. Otherwise becoming partly sunny and
still quite warm/muggy with highs 80-85 mountains, and mid/upper
80s out east.

Main problems look to develop Saturday night and moreso perhaps on
Sunday ahead of the next strong upper trough approaching from the
northwest that will drive another surface cold front into the region by
late Sunday. Energy shearing northeast out of the residual upper system
to the southwest will work up ahead of the boundary Saturday night.
Models show increasing shower coverage Saturday night with embedded
deeper convection as winds aloft back and shear increases. This may
result in some late night severe threat if storms can organize. Best
shot at deeper convection will occur Sunday as the surface front
coincides with residual tropical moisture. However still questions with
the timing of the pre-frontal convection as guidance shows quite a bit
of deeper moisture over the west with better instability out east
during the afternoon. Appears may be a scenario where early morning
coverage fades crossing the ridges before evolving back to multiple
bands in the afternoon with the deeper convection and best severe
potential out east. Kept temps closer to the cooler consensus in the
west where should stay in the 70s while the east bounces back into the
low/mid 80s especially if afternoon showers are slower.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT Thursday...

A much drier and comfortable reprieve from showers and high humidity
will be in store next week as a series of cold fronts drive cooler air
into the region through midweek. Will initially have some leftover
showers/storms especially east Sunday night as the first cold front
gets booted east in advance of a piece of upper troffiness sliding
through the Ohio Valley. Appears most of this rainfall will taper after
midnight Sunday night leaving a few cool advection upslope showers over
the northwest into early Monday. Main push of the upper cold pool looks
to occur on Tuesday with an upper low rotating through the Great Lakes
and in turn propelling a secondary stronger cold front across the area
early Tuesday. This should bring another round of gusty west winds with
850 mb temps dropping to near 10-12 deg/C which is not quite as cool as
seen yesterday. However much lower dewpoint air should result in dry
weather outside of a few added upslope post frontal showers northwest
Tuesday/Tuesday night. Surface high pressure builds in Wednesday into
Thursday, as the upper trof starts to lift out, before sliding to the
east allowing continued tranquil weather with a slow rebound in
temperatures by Thursday. Overall still looking at highs mostly 70s
mountains to low 80s east with the coolest day likely Wednesday when
some highs may stay in the 60s at elevation. Lows mostly in the 50s
except some coolish 40s in the valleys early Wednesday/Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 1240 PM EDT Thursday...

Cloud build-ups will continue across the mountains this afternoon
with more widespread cumulus gradually spreading east as lift
crosses in from the west. This has already led to widely scattered
convection along the southern Blue Ridge and expect more in the
way of widespread coverage from west to east through the afternoon
and early evening. However whether or not any storms will directly
impact any given airport remains in question. Thus will continue
to use more of a vicinity mention or tempo in sites that look to
have the greatest threat per release coverage. Still appears that
many western sites could see a period of MVFR or worse with
perhaps multiple rounds of convection into the evening. A bit more
of a delay to the onset of shra/tsra across the east with coverage
east of the Blue Ridge likely not increasing until late afternoon.

Clusters/bands of convection may be slow to fade until after
midnight when will trend back toward areas of fog overnight.
However similar to last night, western locations may see limited
coverage due to debris clouds while things remain drier out east
and outside of any onshore flow as seen early this morning. Still
appears that most excluding KROA will see a period of sub-VFR with
westerly flow perhaps even resulting in fog/low clouds at KBLF.
Elsewhere appears more in the way of typical radiative cooling
nature fog in store given so much moisture around.

A slow moving cold front will try to cross the mountains from the
Ohio Valley late tonight, but will likely stall, becoming nearly
stationary across the Mid-Atlantic Friday. This will likely give
way to added showers and storms by the afternoon with best
coverage over the north/west to start and eventually southern and
eastern sections as the front sags in. Again think will transition
to VFR during the morning before seeing added build-ups and
convection get going in the afternoon.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

A much stronger/faster moving front will cross the area Saturday
night or Sunday. Sunday's strong frontal passage will result in
a greater coverage of showers and storms with the potential for
stronger storms pending timing of the front. After the front moves
east of the area...a much drier airmass will overtake the region
for next week.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...DS/JH
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...JH/PM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
340 PM EDT THU JUN 2 2016

NCZ001>006-018>020-VAZ007-009>020-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059-
WVZ042>044-507-508-031945-
ASHE-ALLEGHANY NC-SURRY-STOKES-ROCKINGHAM-CASWELL-WATAUGA-WILKES-
YADKIN-TAZEWELL-SMYTH-BLAND-GILES-WYTHE-PULASKI-MONTGOMERY-GRAYSON-
CARROLL-FLOYD-CRAIG-ALLEGHANY VA-BATH-ROANOKE-BOTETOURT-ROCKBRIDGE-
PATRICK-FRANKLIN-BEDFORD-AMHERST-HENRY-PITTSYLVANIA-CAMPBELL-
APPOMATTOX-BUCKINGHAM-HALIFAX-CHARLOTTE-MERCER-SUMMERS-MONROE-
EASTERN GREENBRIER-WESTERN GREENBRIER-
340 PM EDT THU JUN 2 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA...NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTH
CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SLOW MOVING BANDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PERSIST INTO THIS
EVENING. A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD BE NEAR SEVERE LIMITS WITH
LOCALLY STRONG WINDS AND HAIL. VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO POSE
THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND
FOOTHILLS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. A BETTER CHANCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS EXISTS
SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
613 PM EDT THU JUN 2 2016

NCZ005-022315-
ROCKINGHAM-
613 PM EDT THU JUN 2 2016

...AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN ROCKINGHAM COUNTY...

AT 611 PM EDT...AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS OVER BETHANY...
MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 5 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH AND PEA SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM. VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FREQUENT CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING CAN
BE EXPECTED WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
REIDSVILLE...
BETHANY...
MONROETON...
ELLISBORO...
AND HAW RIVER STATE PARK.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY CAUSE
LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

LAT...LON 3626 8003 3636 8003 3635 7953 3624 7953
TIME...MOT...LOC 2211Z 296DEG 6KT 3630 7982

RAB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
638 PM EDT THU JUN 2 2016

WVZ507-022345-
EASTERN GREENBRIER-
638 PM EDT THU JUN 2 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EASTERN GREENBRIER COUNTY...

AT 637 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR FRANKFORD...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH AND PEA SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LEWISBURG...
WHITE SULPHUR SPRINGS...
RENICK...
FRANKFORD...
AND LEWISBURG AIRPORT.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY CAUSE
LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

LAT...LON 3792 8010 3790 8012 3787 8016 3785 8018
      3784 8018 3782 8020 3780 8023 3778 8022
      3778 8023 3777 8025 3775 8026 3773 8025
      3788 8052 3800 8044
TIME...MOT...LOC 2237Z 293DEG 13KT 3789 8039

RAB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
640 PM EDT THU JUN 2 2016

VAZ035-046-047-022345-
BUCKINGHAM-APPOMATTOX-AMHERST-
640 PM EDT THU JUN 2 2016

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT APPOMATTOX...
SOUTHERN AMHERST AND BUCKINGHAM COUNTIES...

AT 640 PM EDT...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM NEAR CENTENARY TO NEAR NAOLA...AND MOVING EAST AT 50
MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH AND PEA SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS. FREQUENT CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL
CAN BE EXPECTED.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LYNCHBURG...
BUCKINGHAM...
AMHERST...
APPOMATTOX...
AND DILLWYN.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY
CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

THESE STORMS MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 3733 7848 3740 7859 3726 7868 3721 7885
      3725 7892 3743 7902 3742 7907 3739 7906
      3740 7912 3758 7933 3767 7897 3755 7890
      3754 7883 3763 7882 3764 7872 3768 7864
      3775 7862 3776 7851 3779 7848 3766 7824
TIME...MOT...LOC 2240Z 286DEG 45KT 3774 7846 3750 7919

RAB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
709 PM EDT THU JUN 2 2016

VAZ045-046-030015-
APPOMATTOX-CAMPBELL-
709 PM EDT THU JUN 2 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN APPOMATTOX AND
NORTHEASTERN CAMPBELL COUNTIES...

AT 708 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR SPRING MILLS...MOVING
EAST AT 35 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH AND PEA SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CONCORD...
RUSTBURG...
EVERGREEN...
SPRING MILLS...
AND MIKE.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY CAUSE
LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

LAT...LON 3722 7876 3723 7878 3720 7880 3721 7882
      3715 7885 3712 7889 3725 7912 3737 7906
      3728 7868
TIME...MOT...LOC 2308Z 281DEG 29KT 3728 7898

RAB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
714 PM EDT THU JUN 02 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0517 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 ESE FAIRFIELD         37.88N 79.29W
06/02/2016                   ROCKBRIDGE         VA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SPOTTER REPORTS MULITPLE LARGE TREE LIMBS GREATER THAN
            2.0 INCHES IN DIAMETER ALONG US 11 AND RED HILL ROAD IN
            FAIRFIELD.

&&

JMORROW

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
718 PM EDT THU JUN 2 2016

NCZ005-006-030015-
ROCKINGHAM-CASWELL-
718 PM EDT THU JUN 2 2016

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT CASWELL AND
EXTREME EASTERN ROCKINGHAM COUNTIES THROUGH 815 PM EDT...

AT 717 PM EDT...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDED ALONG A LINE
FROM NEAR BETHEL TO NEAR CAMP SPRINGS...AND WAS MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH AND PEA SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
YANCEYVILLE...
BETHEL...
CAMP SPRINGS...
JERICHO...
AND PROSPECT HILL.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY
CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

LAT...LON 3625 7964 3625 7965 3647 7949 3652 7914
      3624 7916
TIME...MOT...LOC 2317Z 262DEG 20KT 3642 7944 3628 7957

RAB