Special Weather Statement, NWS Blacksburg, VA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
350 PM EDT WED MAY 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A stationary front will remain overhead through tonight into
Thursday, which will continue to be the focus for scattered
showers and thunderstorms. A cold front should sweep through the
Mid Atlantic on Friday. Much cooler air will arrive for the
upcoming weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 350 PM EDT Wednesday...

The atmosphere is destabilizing over southeast West Virginia and
the New and Roanoke River valleys in Virginia. In fact, the first
thunderstorm of the day is developing over Roanoke at this hour.
Any strong storm could potentially turn severe and produce large
hail and damaging winds. This area has seen the most sunshine,
but other locations in northwest North Carolina and near Lynchburg
are still stuck under the clouds. High temperatures should
generally reach the upper 60s to the lower 80s this evening.

Some of the shower and thunderstorm activity could linger well
into tonight as the stationary front lingers overhead. There could
be some areas of fog and drizzle likely beyond midnight toward
early Thursday morning. In addition, there could be more remnant
upstream convection approaching from the west during the morning
that may bring showers and possibly a rumble of thunder. More of
the same weather is expected during Thursday as the Mid Atlantic
awaits a cold front to arrive from the Ohio River valley later in
the week to change this unsettled pattern.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 330 PM EDT Wednesday...

The upper level pattern will feature a digging trof into the weekend
before a transition to a more zonal flow regime by Sunday. This will
push a cold front though the region Thursday night into Friday morning.
Timing of the front looks to bring some showers/storms west of the Blue
Ridge from upstream convection overnight Thursday with perhaps a break
before more showers/storms generate in developing diurnal instability
across the piedmont. Dynamics look quite limited so at this time the
threat for severe weather with the frontal passage looks quite low.

On Saturday a reinforcing cold front will move through as the upper
trof continues to surge in from the northwest while generating
some showers and maybe a rumble of thunder with modestly mid level
lapse rates mainly west of the Blue Ridge. It will also be quite
blustery as the colder air moves in Saturday and high temperatures
will be a few degrees below normal. Sunday will remain cool but
looks to remain dry under high pressure but some showers may creep
in Sunday night as warmer air tries to work back into the region.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 330 PM EDT Wednesday...

By early next week the upper flow develops some weak sympathetic
ridging in the east in response to a broad digging trof in the west.
Monday looks to be dry with high pressure over the region, but we
then start to see some divergence in model solutions which leads
to greater uncertainty. The most likely scenario will be for
isentropic lift to ride over a bit of a wedge on Tuesday with an
opportunity for showers. Then as we get into deeper southerly flow
showers and thunderstorms will be develop in unstable air ahead of
a cold front approaching from the west. Temperatures should
exhibit a slight warming trend and generally be close to normal
through the middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 135 PM EDT Wednesday...

A stationary front continues to linger over the Mid Atlantic.
Ceilings still remain at MVFR for KLYH/KDAN. Elsewhere, enough
clearing has allowed conditions to reach VFR. With this frontal
boundary still overhead, it shall continue to spark scattered
showers and thunderstorms if the atmosphere becomes unstable.
However, there is still not enough confidence to pinpoint
locations where convection will eventually track later this
evening, so just VCTS was kept for all TAF sites.

With recent rainfall and a wet ground, fog and drizzle appear
likely to form again tonight. Confidence is quite high that
ceilings should lower to IFR/LIFR for all sites except KBLF, which
could potentially not drop all the way down to those levels.
Recovery from these low ceilings will take most of Thursday
morning, and some scattered showers from remnant upstream
convection could arrive west of the Blue Ridge during this time.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

More showers and thunderstorms are possible for Thursday. Periods
of drizzle, fog, and low ceilings are likely again on Thursday
night. By Friday, a cold front should cross over the Mid Atlantic.
A much cooler air mass should arrive behind this frontal passage
for the upcoming weekend. Scattered showers and MVFR ceilings are
possible in the mountains on Saturday, but all sites should be VFR
for Sunday and Monday as high pressure builds overhead.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...PW
NEAR TERM...PW
SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...MBS
AVIATION...PW

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
311 PM EDT WED MAY 11 2016

NCZ001>006-018>020-VAZ007-009>020-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059-
WVZ042>044-507-508-121915-
ASHE-ALLEGHANY NC-SURRY-STOKES-ROCKINGHAM-CASWELL-WATAUGA-WILKES-
YADKIN-TAZEWELL-SMYTH-BLAND-GILES-WYTHE-PULASKI-MONTGOMERY-GRAYSON-
CARROLL-FLOYD-CRAIG-ALLEGHANY VA-BATH-ROANOKE-BOTETOURT-ROCKBRIDGE-
PATRICK-FRANKLIN-BEDFORD-AMHERST-HENRY-PITTSYLVANIA-CAMPBELL-
APPOMATTOX-BUCKINGHAM-HALIFAX-CHARLOTTE-MERCER-SUMMERS-MONROE-
EASTERN GREENBRIER-WESTERN GREENBRIER-
311 PM EDT WED MAY 11 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA...NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTH
CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATER THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT. THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER. LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE MAIN THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

PW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
408 PM EDT WED MAY 11 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0335 PM     HAIL             4 E ROANOKE             37.28N 79.88W
05/11/2016  E1.00 INCH       ROANOKE            VA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            ALSO NOTED SOME TREE LIMBS DOWN

0340 PM     HAIL             2 E ROANOKE             37.28N 79.92W
05/11/2016  M0.25 INCH       CITY OF ROANOKE    VA   TRAINED SPOTTER

0343 PM     HAIL             2 NE ROANOKE            37.30N 79.93W
05/11/2016  M1.00 INCH       CITY OF ROANOKE    VA   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

16

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
416 PM EDT WED MAY 11 2016

VAZ011-WVZ042>044-112115-
GILES-SUMMERS-MERCER-MONROE-
416 PM EDT WED MAY 11 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT WESTERN GILES...SOUTHWESTERN
SUMMERS...MERCER AND SOUTHWESTERN MONROE COUNTIES...

AT 415 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS OVER CAMP CREEK STATE
PARK...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH AND PEA SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
PRINCETON...
PEARISBURG...
NARROWS...
ATHENS...
AND PETERSTOWN.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY CAUSE
LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

LAT...LON 3746 8130 3748 8127 3750 8126 3751 8121
      3754 8120 3757 8120 3760 8114 3759 8109
      3760 8109 3756 8061 3718 8080 3728 8099
      3730 8098 3729 8102 3745 8131
TIME...MOT...LOC 2015Z 293DEG 18KT 3751 8119

KK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
431 PM EDT WED MAY 11 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0350 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 ESE ROANOKE MOUNTAIN  37.19N 79.88W
05/11/2016                   FRANKLIN           VA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TWELVE INCH OAK TREE KNOCKED OVER

&&

JRUCKMAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
439 PM EDT WED MAY 11 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0336 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 NNE ROANOKE           37.30N 79.94W
05/11/2016                   CITY OF ROANOKE    VA   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES DOWN ALONG WILLIAMSON RD.

&&

JRUCKMAN

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