Alert archive / West Virginia / Special Weather Statements in 2016

Special Weather Statement, NWS Blacksburg, VA

May 11, 2016Mercer County, West Virginia

NWS Blacksburg, VA issued this special weather statement at May 11, 2016, 4:16 PM EDT for Mercer County, West Virginia. It was in force for 59 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: May 11, 2016, 4:16 PM EDT (20:16 UTC)
Expired: May 11, 2016, 5:15 PM EDT
In force: 59 min
Issued by: NWS Blacksburg, VA

County Mercer County, WV

The radar

The Roanoke radar (KFCX), 89 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:16 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Roanoke, VA (KRNK), launched 12:00Z, 8.3 hours before the alert went out and 145 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 2 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -144 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 903 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 19 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 71 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 102 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

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What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this special weather statement went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Blacksburg, VA wrote its last area forecast discussion before this special weather statement went out at May 11, 3:50 PM EDT, 26 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, May 11, 3:50 PM EDT, 26 minutes before

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
350 PM EDT WED MAY 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A stationary front will remain overhead through tonight into
Thursday, which will continue to be the focus for scattered
showers and thunderstorms. A cold front should sweep through the
Mid Atlantic on Friday. Much cooler air will arrive for the
upcoming weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 350 PM EDT Wednesday...

The atmosphere is destabilizing over southeast West Virginia and
the New and Roanoke River valleys in Virginia. In fact, the first
thunderstorm of the day is developing over Roanoke at this hour.
Any strong storm could potentially turn severe and produce large
hail and damaging winds. This area has seen the most sunshine,
but other locations in northwest North Carolina and near Lynchburg
are still stuck under the clouds. High temperatures should
generally reach the upper 60s to the lower 80s this evening.

Some of the shower and thunderstorm activity could linger well
into tonight as the stationary front lingers overhead. There could
be some areas of fog and drizzle likely beyond midnight toward
early Thursday morning. In addition, there could be more remnant
upstream convection approaching from the west during the morning
that may bring showers and possibly a rumble of thunder. More of
the same weather is expected during Thursday as the Mid Atlantic
awaits a cold front to arrive from the Ohio River valley later in
the week to change this unsettled pattern.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 330 PM EDT Wednesday...

The upper level pattern will feature a digging trof into the weekend
before a transition to a more zonal flow regime by Sunday. This will
push a cold front though the region Thursday night into Friday morning.
Timing of the front looks to bring some showers/storms west of the Blue
Ridge from upstream convection overnight Thursday with perhaps a break
before more showers/storms generate in developing diurnal instability
across the piedmont. Dynamics look quite limited so at this time the
threat for severe weather with the frontal passage looks quite low.

On Saturday a reinforcing cold front will move through as the upper
trof continues to surge in from the northwest while generating
some showers and maybe a rumble of thunder with modestly mid level
lapse rates mainly west of the Blue Ridge. It will also be quite
blustery as the colder air moves in Saturday and high temperatures
will be a few degrees below normal. Sunday will remain cool but
looks to remain dry under high pressure but some showers may creep
in Sunday night as warmer air tries to work back into the region.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 330 PM EDT Wednesday...

By early next week the upper flow develops some weak sympathetic
ridging in the east in response to a broad digging trof in the west.
Monday looks to be dry with high pressure over the region, but we
then start to see some divergence in model solutions which leads
to greater uncertainty. The most likely scenario will be for
isentropic lift to ride over a bit of a wedge on Tuesday with an
opportunity for showers. Then as we get into deeper southerly flow
showers and thunderstorms will be develop in unstable air ahead of
a cold front approaching from the west. Temperatures should
exhibit a slight warming trend and generally be close to normal
through the middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 135 PM EDT Wednesday...

A stationary front continues to linger over the Mid Atlantic.
Ceilings still remain at MVFR for KLYH/KDAN. Elsewhere, enough
clearing has allowed conditions to reach VFR. With this frontal
boundary still overhead, it shall continue to spark scattered
showers and thunderstorms if the atmosphere becomes unstable.
However, there is still not enough confidence to pinpoint
locations where convection will eventually track later this
evening, so just VCTS was kept for all TAF sites.

With recent rainfall and a wet ground, fog and drizzle appear
likely to form again tonight. Confidence is quite high that
ceilings should lower to IFR/LIFR for all sites except KBLF, which
could potentially not drop all the way down to those levels.
Recovery from these low ceilings will take most of Thursday
morning, and some scattered showers from remnant upstream
convection could arrive west of the Blue Ridge during this time.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

More showers and thunderstorms are possible for Thursday. Periods
of drizzle, fog, and low ceilings are likely again on Thursday
night. By Friday, a cold front should cross over the Mid Atlantic.
A much cooler air mass should arrive behind this frontal passage
for the upcoming weekend. Scattered showers and MVFR ceilings are
possible in the mountains on Saturday, but all sites should be VFR
for Sunday and Monday as high pressure builds overhead.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...PW
NEAR TERM...PW
SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...MBS
AVIATION...PW

Hazardous weather outlook, May 11, 3:11 PM EDT, 1 hour 5 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
311 PM EDT WED MAY 11 2016

NCZ001>006-018>020-VAZ007-009>020-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059-
WVZ042>044-507-508-121915-
ASHE-ALLEGHANY NC-SURRY-STOKES-ROCKINGHAM-CASWELL-WATAUGA-WILKES-
YADKIN-TAZEWELL-SMYTH-BLAND-GILES-WYTHE-PULASKI-MONTGOMERY-GRAYSON-
CARROLL-FLOYD-CRAIG-ALLEGHANY VA-BATH-ROANOKE-BOTETOURT-ROCKBRIDGE-
PATRICK-FRANKLIN-BEDFORD-AMHERST-HENRY-PITTSYLVANIA-CAMPBELL-
APPOMATTOX-BUCKINGHAM-HALIFAX-CHARLOTTE-MERCER-SUMMERS-MONROE-
EASTERN GREENBRIER-WESTERN GREENBRIER-
311 PM EDT WED MAY 11 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA...NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTH
CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATER THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT. THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER. LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE MAIN THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

PW

In the hours before

Special weather statement, May 11, 3:17 PM EDT, 59 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
317 PM EDT WED MAY 11 2016

VAZ018-022-023-034-112015-
CRAIG-ROANOKE-BOTETOURT-BEDFORD-
317 PM EDT WED MAY 11 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN CRAIG...NORTHERN
ROANOKE...CITY OF ROANOKE... SOUTHWESTERN BOTETOURT AND WEST CENTRAL
BEDFORD COUNTIES...

AT 316 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS OVER HOLLINS...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH AND PEA SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ROANOKE...
SALEM...
VINTON...
BEDFORD...
AND STEWARTSVILLE.

THIS INCLUDES ROANOKE REGIONAL AIRPORT.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY CAUSE
LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

LAT...LON 3739 8026 3745 8022 3735 7953 3718 7963
TIME...MOT...LOC 1916Z 293DEG 19KT 3735 7997

KK

Special weather statement, May 11, 3:38 PM EDT, 38 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
338 PM EDT WED MAY 11 2016

VAZ019-020-023-024-112045-
ROCKBRIDGE-BATH-BOTETOURT-ALLEGHANY-
338 PM EDT WED MAY 11 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTH CENTRAL BATH...CITY OF
LEXINGTON...SOUTHERN ROCKBRIDGE...CITY OF BUENA VISTA...NORTH
CENTRAL BOTETOURT AND NORTHEASTERN ALLEGHANY COUNTIES...

AT 337 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS OVER CLIFTON FORGE...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH AND PEA SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LEXINGTON...
BUENA VISTA...
CLIFTON FORGE...
GLASGOW...
AND COLLIERSTOWN.

THIS INCLUDES VMI.

LAT...LON 3784 7924 3763 7941 3761 7945 3782 7990
      3795 7981
TIME...MOT...LOC 1937Z 293DEG 17KT 3784 7977

KK

Local storm report, May 11, 3:49 PM EDT, 27 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
349 PM EDT WED MAY 11 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0346 PM     HAIL             VINTON                  37.27N 79.89W
05/11/2016  E0.88 INCH       ROANOKE            VA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            PEA TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL

&&

MSPORER

Local storm report, May 11, 3:54 PM EDT, 22 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
354 PM EDT WED MAY 11 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0338 PM     HAIL             5 N ROANOKE             37.35N 79.95W
05/11/2016  E0.50 INCH       ROANOKE            VA   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

JRUCKMAN

Local storm report, May 11, 4:08 PM EDT, 8 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
408 PM EDT WED MAY 11 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0335 PM     HAIL             4 E ROANOKE             37.28N 79.88W
05/11/2016  E1.00 INCH       ROANOKE            VA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            ALSO NOTED SOME TREE LIMBS DOWN

0340 PM     HAIL             2 E ROANOKE             37.28N 79.92W
05/11/2016  M0.25 INCH       CITY OF ROANOKE    VA   TRAINED SPOTTER

0343 PM     HAIL             2 NE ROANOKE            37.30N 79.93W
05/11/2016  M1.00 INCH       CITY OF ROANOKE    VA   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

16

Special weather statement, May 11, 4:16 PM EDT, 0 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
416 PM EDT WED MAY 11 2016

VAZ011-WVZ042>044-112115-
GILES-SUMMERS-MERCER-MONROE-
416 PM EDT WED MAY 11 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT WESTERN GILES...SOUTHWESTERN
SUMMERS...MERCER AND SOUTHWESTERN MONROE COUNTIES...

AT 415 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS OVER CAMP CREEK STATE
PARK...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH AND PEA SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
PRINCETON...
PEARISBURG...
NARROWS...
ATHENS...
AND PETERSTOWN.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY CAUSE
LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

LAT...LON 3746 8130 3748 8127 3750 8126 3751 8121
      3754 8120 3757 8120 3760 8114 3759 8109
      3760 8109 3756 8061 3718 8080 3728 8099
      3730 8098 3729 8102 3745 8131
TIME...MOT...LOC 2015Z 293DEG 18KT 3751 8119

KK

The office that day

Everything else NWS Blacksburg, VA issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
May 10, 8:39 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	RNK	Charlotte	66 min
May 10, 9:53 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	RNK	Charlotte	52 min
May 10, 10:28 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	RNK	Franklin	62 min
May 10, 11:18 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	RNK	Bland, Giles, Tazewell	57 min
May 10, 11:41 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	RNK	Appomattox, Campbell, Charlotte, Pittsylvania	49 min
May 11, 12:27 AM EDT	Special Weather Statement	RNK	Alleghany, Craig, Giles, Montgomery, Pulaski, City of Covington and 1 more	33 min
May 11, 1:07 AM EDT	Special Weather Statement	RNK	Alleghany, Bath, Botetourt, Craig, Montgomery, Roanoke and 4 more	53 min
May 11, 1:29 AM EDT	Special Weather Statement	RNK	Charlotte	31 min
May 11, 4:59 AM EDT	Special Weather Statement	RNK	Tazewell	61 min
May 11, 3:17 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	RNK	City of Roanoke	58 min
May 11, 3:29 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	RNK	Bedford, Botetourt, Roanoke, City of Roanoke, City of Salem	61 min
May 11, 3:38 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	RNK	Rockbridge, City of Buena Vista, City of Lexington	67 min
May 11, 3:58 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	RNK	Bedford, Franklin, Pittsylvania, Roanoke	62 min
May 11, 4:09 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	RNK	Amherst, Bedford, Botetourt, Rockbridge, City of Buena Vista, City of Lexington	66 min
May 11, 4:37 PM EDT	Areal Flood Advisory	RNK	City of Roanoke	113 min
May 11, 4:46 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	RNK	Franklin, Pittsylvania	45 min
May 11, 5:03 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	RNK	Botetourt	57 min

Nearby

Special Weather Statements in West Virginia, 2016 Every special weather statement in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.