River Flood Warning 10, NWS Blacksburg, VA

357 
WGUS81 KRNK 250109
FLSRNK
 
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 
809 PM EST WED FEB 24 2016

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Virginia...
 
  Roanoke River at Randolph affecting Charlotte and Halifax Counties 
  Dan River at South Boston affecting Halifax County 

 Several days of intermittent rainfall have led to rises along
 the lower Dan and lower Roanoke Rivers. Both rivers are expected
 to continue rising through Thursday night.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive through flooded areas...the water may be much deeper 
than you think.

 Graphical forecast information is available on the internet at 
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/rnk (lower case). Click on 'rivers & lakes 
ahps'.
 
The next scheduled statement will be issued by noon Thursday. 

&&

VAC037-083-250909-
/O.EXT.KRNK.FL.W.0010.160225T0415Z-160228T0000Z/
/RNDV2.1.ER.160225T0415Z.160226T0600Z.160227T1200Z.NO/
809 PM EST WED FEB 24 2016

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Roanoke River at Randolph.
* from tonight until Saturday evening
* at 07PM Wednesday the stage was 20.6 feet.

* Flood stage is 21.0 feet.
* Forecast to rise above flood stage late this evening and continue to
  rise to near 23.5 feet by early Friday morning. The river will fall 
  below flood stage by Saturday morning.
* Impact...at 24.0 feet...Widespread lowland flooding in fields on 
  the left bank...and woods on the right bank.
* Flood history...this crest compares to a previous crest of 24.1 
  feet on Feb 18 2016.

&&

LAT...LON 3695 7885 3703 7882 3702 7872 3690 7866
          3680 7863 3680 7870        

$$

VAC083-250909-
/O.EXT.KRNK.FL.W.0011.160225T0102Z-160227T2332Z/
/SBNV2.1.ER.160224T2236Z.160226T1200Z.160227T1132Z.NO/
809 PM EST WED FEB 24 2016

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Dan River at South Boston.
* until Saturday evening. 
* at 07PM Wednesday the stage was 19.5 feet.

* Flood stage is 19.0 feet.
* The river will continue rising to near 23.7 feet by Friday morning.
  The river will fall below flood stage Saturday morning.
* Flood history...this crest compares to a previous crest of 23.2 
  feet on Feb 5 2016.

&&

LAT...LON 3660 7898 3672 7902 3675 7884 3668 7879
                                      

$$

669 
WGUS81 KRNK 250845
FLSRNK
 
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 
345 AM EST THU FEB 25 2016

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Virginia...
 
  Roanoke River at Randolph affecting Charlotte and Halifax Counties 
  Dan River at South Boston affecting Halifax County 


 Several days of intermittent rainfall have led to rises along
 the lower Dan and lower Roanoke Rivers. Both rivers are expected
 to continue rising through Thursday night.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive through flooded areas...the water may be much deeper 
than you think.

 Graphical forecast information is available on the internet at 
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/rnk (lower case). Click on 'rivers & lakes 
ahps'.

 
 
The next scheduled statement will be issued  by noon today.

&&

VAC037-083-251645-
/O.EXT.KRNK.FL.W.0010.000000T0000Z-160227T2030Z/
/RNDV2.1.ER.160225T0309Z.160226T0600Z.160227T0830Z.NO/
345 AM EST THU FEB 25 2016

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Roanoke River at Randolph.
* until Saturday afternoon. 
* at 02AM Thursday the stage was 21.9 feet and rising.
* Flood stage is 21.0 feet.
* The river will continue rising to near 23.8 feet by after midnight 
  Thursday night. The river will fall below flood stage Saturday morning.
* Impact...at 24.0 feet...Widespread lowland flooding in fields on 
  left bank and woods on right bank.
* Flood history...this crest compares to a previous crest of 24.1 
  feet on Feb 18 2016.

&&

LAT...LON 3695 7885 3703 7882 3702 7872 3690 7866
          3680 7863 3680 7870        

$$

VAC083-251645-
/O.EXT.KRNK.FL.W.0011.000000T0000Z-160227T2145Z/
/SBNV2.1.ER.160224T2236Z.160226T0600Z.160227T0945Z.NO/
345 AM EST THU FEB 25 2016

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Dan River at South Boston.
* until Saturday afternoon. 
* at 03AM Thursday the stage was 21.2 feet and rising.
* Flood stage is 19.0 feet.
* The river will continue rising to near 23.0 feet by after midnight 
  Thursday night. The river will fall below flood stage Saturday morning.
* Impact...at 19.0 feet...Flooding begins in low-lying agricultural land and woods.
* Flood history...this crest compares to a previous crest of 23.2 
  feet on Feb 5 2016.

&&

LAT...LON 3660 7898 3672 7902 3675 7884 3668 7879
                                      

$$

052 
WGUS81 KRNK 251551
FLSRNK
 
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 
1051 AM EST THU FEB 25 2016

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Virginia...
 
  Roanoke River at Randolph affecting Charlotte and Halifax Counties 
  Dan River at South Boston affecting Halifax County 

Flood conditions continue along the lower reaches of both the Roanoke and 
Dan Rivers this morning. Both rivers are still rising slowly and will 
approach crest late tonight or early Friday morning.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive through flooded areas...the water may be much deeper 
than you think.

 Graphical forecast information is available on the internet at 
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/rnk (lower case). Click on 'rivers & lakes 
ahps'.
 
The next scheduled statement will be issued by around 8 pm this evening.

&&

VAC037-083-252351-
/O.EXT.KRNK.FL.W.0010.000000T0000Z-160227T2008Z/
/RNDV2.1.ER.160225T0309Z.160226T0600Z.160227T0808Z.NO/
1051 AM EST THU FEB 25 2016

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Roanoke River at Randolph.
* until Saturday afternoon. 
* at 09AM Thursday the stage was 23.0 feet.
* Flood stage is 21.0 feet.
* The river will continue rising to near 23.9 feet after midnight 
  tonight. The river will fall below flood stage Saturday morning.
* Impact...at 24.0 feet...Several roads are closed and widespread
   lowland flooding occurs.
* Flood history...this crest compares to a previous crest of 24.1 
  feet on Feb 18 2016.

&&

LAT...LON 3695 7885 3703 7882 3702 7872 3690 7866
          3680 7863 3680 7870        

$$

VAC083-252351-
/O.EXT.KRNK.FL.W.0011.000000T0000Z-160227T1412Z/
/SBNV2.1.ER.160224T2236Z.160226T0600Z.160227T0212Z.NO/
1051 AM EST THU FEB 25 2016

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Dan River at South Boston.
* until Saturday morning. 
* at 10AM Thursday the stage was 21.9 feet.
* Flood stage is 19.0 feet.
* The river will continue rising to near 23.0 feet by after midnight 
  tonight. The river will fall below flood stage tomorrow late 
  evening.
* Impact...at 23 feet...widespread lowland flooding.  
* Flood history...this crest compares to a previous crest of 23.2 
  feet on Feb 5 2016.

&&

LAT...LON 3660 7898 3672 7902 3675 7884 3668 7879
                                      

$$

pc

653 
WGUS81 KRNK 260106
FLSRNK
 
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 
806 PM EST THU FEB 25 2016

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Virginia...
 
  Roanoke River at Randolph affecting Charlotte and Halifax Counties 

...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in Virginia..
  Dan River at South Boston affecting Halifax County 

Flood conditions continue along the lower reaches of both the Roanoke and 
Dan Rivers this morning. Both rivers are still rising slowly and will 
approach crest late tonight or early Friday morning.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive through flooded areas...the water may be much deeper 
than you think.

 Graphical forecast information is available on the internet at 
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/rnk (lower case). Click on 'rivers & lakes 
ahps'.

The next scheduled statement will be issued by 6AM Friday.

&&

VAC037-083-260906-
/O.EXT.KRNK.FL.W.0010.000000T0000Z-160227T2125Z/
/RNDV2.1.ER.160225T0309Z.160226T0600Z.160227T0925Z.NO/
806 PM EST THU FEB 25 2016

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Roanoke River at Randolph.
* until Saturday afternoon. 
* at 07PM Thursday the stage was 23.7 feet.

* Flood stage is 21.0 feet.
* The river will continue rising to near 23.9 feet just after midnight 
  tonight. The river will fall below flood stage Saturday morning.
* Impact...at 24.0 feet...There is widespread lowland flooding in fields
  on the left bank and in woods on the right bank.
* Flood history...this crest compares to a previous crest of 24.1 
  feet on Feb 18 2016.

&&

LAT...LON 3695 7885 3703 7882 3702 7872 3690 7866
          3680 7863 3680 7870        

$$

VAC083-260906-
/O.CON.KRNK.FL.W.0011.000000T0000Z-160227T1412Z/
/SBNV2.1.ER.160224T2236Z.160226T0600Z.160227T0212Z.NO/
806 PM EST THU FEB 25 2016

the Flood Warning continues for
  the Dan River at South Boston.
* until Saturday morning. 
* at 07PM Thursday the stage was 22.3 feet.

* Flood stage is 19.0 feet.
* The river will continue rising to near 23.0 feet just after midnight 
  tonight. The river will fall below flood stage late tomorrow  
  evening.
* Flood history...this crest compares to a previous crest of 23.2 
  feet on Feb 5 2016.

&&

LAT...LON 3660 7898 3672 7902 3675 7884 3668 7879
                                      

$$

603 
WGUS81 KRNK 260358
FLSRNK
 
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 
1058 PM EST THU FEB 25 2016

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Virginia...
 
  Roanoke River at Randolph affecting Charlotte and Halifax Counties 
  Dan River at South Boston affecting Halifax County 

Flood conditions continue along the lower reaches of both the Roanoke and 
Dan Rivers this morning. Both rivers were near their crest and will begin to fall early Friday morning.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive through flooded areas...the water may be much deeper 
than you think.

 Graphical forecast information is available on the internet at 
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/rnk (lower case). Click on 'rivers & lakes 
ahps'.
 
The next scheduled statement will be issued by noon.

&&

VAC037-083-261158-
/O.EXT.KRNK.FL.W.0010.000000T0000Z-160228T0320Z/
/RNDV2.1.ER.160225T0309Z.160226T0600Z.160227T1520Z.NO/
1058 PM EST THU FEB 25 2016

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Roanoke River at Randolph.
* until Saturday evening. 
* at 09PM Thursday the stage was 23.7 feet.

* Flood stage is 21.0 feet.
* The river has crested and will fall below flood stage late Saturday 
  morning.
* Impact...at 24.0 feet...There is widespread lowland flooding in fields 
  on the left bank and woods on the right bank.
* Flood history...this crest compares to a previous crest of 24.1 
  feet on Feb 18 2016.

&&

LAT...LON 3695 7885 3703 7882 3702 7872 3690 7866
          3680 7863 3680 7870        

$$

VAC083-261158-
/O.EXT.KRNK.FL.W.0011.000000T0000Z-160227T1056Z/
/SBNV2.1.ER.160224T2236Z.160226T1200Z.160226T2256Z.NO/
1058 PM EST THU FEB 25 2016

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Dan River at South Boston.
* until late Friday night. 
* at 10PM Thursday the stage was 22.3 feet.

* Flood stage is 19.0 feet.
* The river will continue rising to near 22.7 feet just after midnight
  tonight. The river will fall below flood stage tomorrow afternoon.
* Flood history...this crest compares to a previous crest of 23.2 
  feet on Feb 5 2016.

&&

LAT...LON 3660 7898 3672 7902 3675 7884 3668 7879
                                      

$$

024 
WGUS81 KRNK 260716
FLSRNK
 
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 
216 AM EST FRI FEB 26 2016

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Virginia...
 
  Roanoke River at Randolph affecting Charlotte and Halifax Counties 
  Dan River at South Boston affecting Halifax County 


MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES ALONG THE LOWER ROANOKE AND DAN RIVER BASINS
AT RANDOLPH AND SOUTH BOSTON. THE ROANOKE RIVER AT RANDOLPH HAS CRESTED
AND IS FALLING. THE DAN RIVER AT SOUTH BOSTON IS NEARING CREST. BOTH
RIVERS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE LATER TODAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive through flooded areas...the water may be much deeper 
than you think.

 Graphical forecast information is available on the internet at 
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/rnk (lower case). Click on 'rivers & lakes 
ahps'.

 
 
The next scheduled statement will be issued BY NOON TODAY.

&&

VAC037-083-261516-
/O.EXT.KRNK.FL.W.0010.000000T0000Z-160227T0542Z/
/RNDV2.1.ER.160225T0309Z.160226T0115Z.160226T1742Z.NO/
216 AM EST FRI FEB 26 2016

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Roanoke River at Randolph.
* until late tonight. 
* at 01AM Friday the stage was 23.5 feet AND FALLING.
* Flood stage is 21.0 feet.
* The river will continue to fall to below flood stage by this 
  afternoon.
* Impact...at 24.0 feet...Widespread lowland flooding in fields on 
  left bank and woods on right bank.
* Flood history...this crest compares to a previous crest of 24.1 
  feet on Feb 18 2016.

&&

LAT...LON 3695 7885 3703 7882 3702 7872 3690 7866
          3680 7863 3680 7870        

$$

VAC083-261516-
/O.EXT.KRNK.FL.W.0011.000000T0000Z-160227T0905Z/
/SBNV2.1.ER.160224T2236Z.160226T0400Z.160226T2105Z.NO/
216 AM EST FRI FEB 26 2016

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Dan River at South Boston.
* until late tonight. 
* at 01AM Friday the stage was 22.3 feet and nearing crest.
* Flood stage is 19.0 feet.
* The river will fall to below flood stage by late this 
  afternoon.
* Flood history...this crest compares to a previous crest of 23.2 
  feet on Feb 5 2016.

&&

LAT...LON 3660 7898 3672 7902 3675 7884 3668 7879
                                      

$$

345 
WGUS81 KRNK 261534
FLSRNK
 
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 
1034 AM EST FRI FEB 26 2016

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Virginia...
 
  Roanoke River at Randolph affecting Charlotte and Halifax Counties 
  Dan River at South Boston affecting Halifax County 

These rivers have crested and will fall below flood stage today.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive through flooded areas...the water may be much deeper 
than you think.

 Graphical forecast information is available on the internet at 
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/rnk (lower case). Click on 'rivers & lakes 
ahps'.
 
The next scheduled statement will be issued by 6PM.

&&

VAC037-083-262334-
/O.EXT.KRNK.FL.W.0010.000000T0000Z-160227T0518Z/
/RNDV2.1.ER.160225T0309Z.160226T0115Z.160226T1718Z.NO/
1034 AM EST FRI FEB 26 2016

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Roanoke River at Randolph.
* until late tonight. 
* at 09AM Friday the stage was 21.7 feet.

* Flood stage is 21.0 feet.
* The river will continue to fall to below flood stage by this 
  afternoon.
* Impact...at 22.0 feet...River Road (Route 607) in Charlotte County
  and Black Walnut Road in Halifax County are closed by flooding.
* Flood history...the crest of 23.7 feet compares to a previous crest of
  23.7 feet on November 11 2015.

&&

LAT...LON 3695 7885 3703 7882 3702 7872 3690 7866
          3680 7863 3680 7870        

$$

VAC083-262334-
/O.EXT.KRNK.FL.W.0011.000000T0000Z-160227T1106Z/
/SBNV2.1.ER.160224T2236Z.160226T0400Z.160226T2306Z.NO/
1034 AM EST FRI FEB 26 2016

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Dan River at South Boston.
* until Saturday morning. 
* at 10AM Friday the stage was 21.5 feet.

* Flood stage is 19.0 feet.
* The river will continue to fall to below flood stage by this 
  evening.
* Flood history...the crest of 22.4 feet compares to a previous crest of
  22.4 feet on Feb 26 2016.

&&

LAT...LON 3660 7898 3672 7902 3675 7884 3668 7879
                                      

$$

286 
WGUS81 KRNK 261847
FLSRNK
 
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 
147 PM EST FRI FEB 26 2016

...The Flood Warning is cancelled for the following rivers
in Virginia...
 
  Roanoke River at Randolph affecting Charlotte and Halifax Counties
 
...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Virginia...
 
  Dan River at South Boston affecting Halifax County 

The Roanoke River at Randolph has fallen below flood stage. 
The Dan River at South Boston is still experiencing minor flooding 
but should fall below flood stage later this evening.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive through flooded areas...the water may be much deeper 
than you think.

 Graphical forecast information is available on the internet at 
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/rnk (lower case). Click on 'rivers & lakes 
ahps'.

The next scheduled statement will be issued by 7 PM this evening.

&&

VAC037-083-261917-
/O.CAN.KRNK.FL.W.0010.000000T0000Z-160227T0518Z/
/RNDV2.1.ER.160225T0309Z.160226T0115Z.160226T1656Z.NO/
147 PM EST FRI FEB 26 2016

the Flood Warning is cancelled for
  the Roanoke River at Randolph.
* at 1 PM Friday the stage was 20.7 feet.

* Flood stage is 21.0 feet.

&&

LAT...LON 3695 7885 3703 7882 3702 7872 3690 7866
          3680 7863 3680 7870        

$$

VAC083-270247-
/O.EXT.KRNK.FL.W.0011.000000T0000Z-160227T1051Z/
/SBNV2.1.ER.160224T2236Z.160226T0400Z.160226T2251Z.NO/
147 PM EST FRI FEB 26 2016

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Dan River at South Boston.
* until Friday evening. 
* at 1 PM Friday the stage was 20.7 feet.

* Flood stage is 19.0 feet.
* The river will continue to fall to below flood stage by later this
evening.
* Impact...at 19.0 feet...Flooding begins in low-lying agricultural 
  land and woods.

&&

LAT...LON 3660 7898 3672 7902 3675 7884 3668 7879
                                      
$$

PW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1035 AM EST WED FEB 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTHWEST BRINGING GUSTY WINDS...HEAVY RAIN...AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM COLDER AIR AND WINDY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS INTO
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1030 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS THINKING. WEDGE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE AREA BUT IT IS ERODING ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN AND WESTERN
PERIPHERY. BELIEVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE FROM
THE BLUE RIDGE EAST THIS AFTERNOON AS THE WEDGE ERODES AND THE
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH STRONG DYNAMICS. WILL NOT BE MAKING
ANY CHANGES AT THIS TIME TO THE CURRENT SUITE OF WATCHES AND
WARNINGS ALREADY IN EFFECT.

PREVIOUS AFD...

WEDGE FIRMLY IN PLACE THIS MORNING WITH RAIN/DRIZZLE COVERING MUCH
OF THE AREA...WITH MOST OF THE RAIN IN THE NC MTNS AND FOOTHILLS
NORTH INTO SOUTHERN VA BLUE RIDGE.

WEATHER TODAY WILL BE VERY ACTIVE WITH SEVERAL ISSUES TO DEAL WITH.
GRADIENT WINDS...FLOOD THREAT AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT.

THIS MORNING...STRONG SFC LOW WAS LOCATED OVER WESTERN TN. WEDGE
FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM SRN WV SOUTH TOWARD UPSTATE SC/NE GA THEN
EAST ACROSS SRN NC. QUESTION WILL BE HOLD QUICK THE RAIN/WAA AND
STRONG LOW LVL JET CAN ERODE THE WEDGE TODAY. MODELS TEND TO BE TOO
QUICK IN THIS...BUT GIVEN SUCH A STRONG SOUTHERLY JET AND WITH
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINS...WARMER AIR SHOULD WIN OUT BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. THE ACTUAL SFC LOWS MOVES NORTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE RETREATING.

A 60+ KT LOW LVL JET ACROSS TN THIS MORNING WORKS EAST TO THE
PIEDMONT BY MID AFTERNOON THEN EAST OF US BY THIS EVENING. THIS WILL
BE A CULPRIT FOR GRADIENT WINDS TO EXCEED 45 MPH AT TIMES OVER THE
SRN WV TO NW NC MTNS IN THE FAVORED SE DOWNSLOPE AREAS. WIND
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS THROUGH 4 PM...WHEN THE
SE LOW LVL COMPONENT TURNS MORE SOUTH THEN SOUTHWEST. GIVEN THE
STRONG LOW LVL WINDS...THE HIGHER RIDGES OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND
ALLEGHANYS MAY PASS WIND ADVISORY LEVELS...HOWEVER...THE WEDGE
APPEARS TO KEEP THE STRONGEST WINDS FROM AFFECTING MOST OF THE
POPULATION.

AS FAR AS THE FLOOD THREAT...SEE HYDRO DISCUSSION BELOW. NO CHANGES
TO THE HEADLINE THOUGH FLASH FLOODING THREAT WILL BE HIGHER AT TIMES
GIVEN DEEPER CONVECTION EXPECTED ESPECIALLY ALONG/EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE LATE THIS MORNING THRU THIS AFTERNOON.

FOR SEVERE WX...THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS AN HIGHEST RISK
SOUTHEAST OF A CHARLOTTE COURT HOUSE TO DANVILLE TO REIDSVILLE
LINE...WITH SLIGHT RISK AS FAR WEST AS THE BLUE RIDGE. THE DYNAMICS
ARE THERE FOR SVR WINDS...WITH BULK SHEAR OF 60 KTS...STORM MOTION
SPEED WILL BE 40 TO 55 KTS. STORM RELATIVE HELICITIES WILL ALSO BE
HIGH IN THE 400-600 RANGE AND WITH RETREATING WEDGE FRONT EXPECT
SOME POTENTIAL SPINUPS. THE LIMITING FACTOR IS THERMODYNAMICS AS
CLOUD COVER WILL BE EXTENSIVE...BUT HIGH-RES MODELS FAVOR BREAKS IN
BETWEEN THE RAIN/DRIZZLE THIS MORNING AND THE LINE OF CONVECTION
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SPELLS A GOOD POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS TO FIRE UP. STILL THINK BIGGEST THREAT WILL LIE IN THE
FAR SE CWA AROUND SOUTH BOSTON...DANVILLE/YANCEYVILLE...AND POINTS
SOUTH AND EAST. ALL OF THIS WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HWO.

AS FOR TEMPS WILL SEE IT STAY IN THE 40S ACROSS THE WEDGED AREAS
THROUGH MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON THEN WARM INTO THE 50S BY 3-5PM. HAVE
IT WARMER WHERE WEDGE BREAKS DOWN FASTER...I.E. SOUTHSIDE VA/NW NC
PIEDMONT WHERE IT SHOULD GET TO THE LOWER TO MID 60S. THIS FORECAST
HINGES ON THE WEDGE BREAKING BUT NOT UNTIL LATE. SO IF THE WEDGE
STAYS IN PLACE LONGER...WE BUST THE FORECAST ON THE WARM SIDE...BUT
IF THE WEDGE ERODES FASTER...AND SUNSHINE PUSHES THROUGH FOR AN
HOUR...TEMPS IN DANVILLE TO SOUTH BOSTON TO YANCEYVILLE COULD TOP 70.
WENT CLOSER TO THE HIGH-RES LOCAL WRF...THE 06Z LAMP AND THE NAM
GUIDANCE WHICH HOLDS THE WEDGE LONGER...BUT NOT TOO LONG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

RAPIDLY DEEPENING CYCLONE WILL CONTINUE TO GAIN LATITUDE
TONIGHT...MOVING FROM OHIO INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO...THE SURFACE
PRESSURE FALLING TO NEAR 980 MB BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY.  THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST
COAST...PRESSURE RISES IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT AND DEPARTING
CYCLONE RESULTING IN STRONG GUSTY WINDS WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. 85H WINDS...OR WINDS 3 TO 5KFT ABOVE THE
SURFACE WILL BE HUMMING ALONG AT NEAR 50 KTS. THIS SHOULD TRANSLATE
INTO HEALTHY SURFACE GUSTS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE RIDGE CRESTS.

IN ADDITION TO THE WIND...COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BRING TEMPERATURES
BACK TO A MORE WINTRY FEEL. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT H85 TEMPS
BOTTOM OUT AROUND -12C BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY. THIS WILL CAUSE ANY
LINGERING MOISTURE TO CHANGE OVER TO SNOW WITH PRIMARY IMPACT FROM
ACCUMULATION CONFINED TO AREAS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...AND MOST
PROMINENTLY ALONG OUR WESTERN SLOPES FROM THE MOUNTAINS WEST OF
LEWISBURG TO THE HIGH COUNTRY OF NORTH CAROLINA. FROM LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...OVER ABOUT A 24 TO 30 HOUR PERIOD...WILL BE
LOOKING AT 3 TO 4 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 3500
FEET...AND AN INCH OR TWO IN BOONE...TAZEWELL...BLUEFIELD...AND
LEWISBURG. A DUSTING TO AN INCH IS POSSIBLE IN THE NEW RIVER VALLEY
AND HIGHLANDS OF VA...AND JUST FLURRIES ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE. DRY
DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL SCOUR THE CLOUDS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WITH
LITTLE OR SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT.

WILL NEED TO ADDRESS THE WIND AND SNOW ACCUMULATION HAZARD AT SOME
POINT WITH A HEADLINE...IN OTHER WORDS A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY OR
WIND ADVISORY. FOR NOW...WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IN LIEU OF ADDING MORE HEADLINES TO THE
HODGEPODGE OF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES THAT WE ARE ALREADY
ADDRESSING IN THE NEAR TERM FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM EST TUESDAY...

BY SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD FINALLY BUILD OVERHEAD AND
PROVIDE DRY WEATHER THROUGHOUT THE MID ATLANTIC. THE HIGH SHOULD
SHIFT EASTWARD ON SUNDAY...AND ALLOW MILDER AIR TO RETURN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. AS A RESULT...TEMPERATURES COULD EASILY JUMP TEN DEGREES
HIGHER BETWEEN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
SHOULD ARRIVE BY MONDAY...BUT THERE REMAINS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY
WITH DETAILS IN TIMING AND QPF BETWEEN THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF
MODELS. REGARDLESS...THE PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO BE JUST RAIN FOR
MONDAY...SO CHANCE POPS WERE INSERTED WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES IN THE
WESTERN MOUNTAINS. THE RAIN MAY CHANGE OVER TO UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS
DURING MONDAY NIGHT...BEFORE TRANSITIONING BACK TO RAIN ON TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 645 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

TAF SITES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE POOR FLIGHT
CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON WITH WEDGE RETREATING/ERODING
FROM BLF/DAN NWD THROUGH TONIGHT AS STRONG LOW LVL JET MIXES
WARMER AIR DOWN.

ISSUES WILL LOW CIGS/VSBYS AT TIMES EARLY ALONG WITH LOW LVL WIND
SHEAR. WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY FROM THE SE THEN SW TO WEST THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

RAIN WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY FROM BCB/ROA EAST AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE PREVALENT MORESO SOUTH AND EAST OF
KDAN. ATTM...CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH IN HAVING THUNDER PREDOMINANTLY
IN TAFS AND LEFT VCTS AT LYH/DAN ONLY. IN ADDITION...SOME
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS.

FRONT AND RAIN SWINGS EAST BY 00Z...THEN COLDER SW TO W WINDS KICK
IN OVERNIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE AT BLF/LWB TOWARD 12Z THU.

GUSTS ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WILL BE IN THE 20 TO 30 KT
RANGE OR HIGHER LATER TONIGHT.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WITH MVFR/IFR CEILINGS INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
WINDS SPEEDS. UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH ON FRIDAY NIGHT
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY UNDER THE HIGH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 345 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

THE LATEST BLENDED TPW IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW WELL DEFINED PW
PLUME EXTENDING INTO THE EASTERN U.S. THE PWAT ANOMALIES ARE ABOUT 2
TO 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN. TODAY WILL BE ABOUT WHERE
THE DEEPER CONVECTION OCCURS AND HOW FAST IT MOVES ACROSS. OUTSIDE
DEEP CONVECTION WILL SEE PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN/RAIN
SHOWERS. WITH CONVECTION THINK THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING
EXISTS...THOUGH SPEED OF STORMS WILL BE RAPID. NO CHANGES TO THE
FLOOD WATCH AS RIVERS AND STREAM CONTINUE TO RUN HIGH AND GROUND
REMAINS SATURATED.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE HIGHER NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE AND EAST AS
THINK SE COMPONENT TO THE SFC/LOW LVL WINDS WORK AS A RAIN SHADOW TO
THE NORTHWEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...THOUGH THEN INCREASE AMOUNTS AGAIN
UPSLOPE INTO THE ALLEGHANYS. AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM EARLY
THIS MORNING THROUGH THE END OF THE DAY WILL RANGE FROM ONE QUARTER
TO ONE HALF INCH ON THE WEST SIDE AND PORTIONS OF THE PIEDMONT...TO
1 TO 2 INCHES NEAR AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VAZ007-009>020-
     022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR VAZ007-009-010-
     012-015.
NC...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NCZ001>006-018>020.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NCZ001-002-018.
WV...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR WVZ042>044-507-508.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR WVZ042.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JH/WP
NEAR TERM...MBS/WP
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...AMS/RCS/WP
HYDROLOGY...WP

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
455 AM EST WED FEB 24 2016

NCZ003-019-VAZ011-013-014-016>020-022>024-032>035-WVZ044-507-251000-
SURRY-WILKES-GILES-PULASKI-MONTGOMERY-CARROLL-FLOYD-CRAIG-
ALLEGHANY VA-BATH-ROANOKE-BOTETOURT-ROCKBRIDGE-PATRICK-FRANKLIN-
BEDFORD-AMHERST-MONROE-EASTERN GREENBRIER-
455 AM EST WED FEB 24 2016

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA...NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTH
CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.

IN ADDITION...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD BRING STRONG WIND GUSTS
THIS AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS MAY ALSO GUST TO ADVISORY LEVELS LATE
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

WVZ043-508-251000-
SUMMERS-WESTERN GREENBRIER-
455 AM EST WED FEB 24 2016

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS ALONG WITH ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL MAY REACH
ADVISORY LEVELS FROM THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

NCZ001-002-018-VAZ007-009-010-012-015-WVZ042-251000-
ASHE-ALLEGHANY NC-WATAUGA-TAZEWELL-SMYTH-BLAND-WYTHE-GRAYSON-MERCER-
455 AM EST WED FEB 24 2016

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON...
...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST NORTH
CAROLINA...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.
   WIND ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS ALONG WITH ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL MAY REACH
ADVISORY LEVELS FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

NCZ004>006-020-VAZ043>047-058-059-251000-
STOKES-ROCKINGHAM-CASWELL-YADKIN-HENRY-PITTSYLVANIA-CAMPBELL-
APPOMATTOX-BUCKINGHAM-HALIFAX-CHARLOTTE-
455 AM EST WED FEB 24 2016

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA...NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND SOUTH
CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.

THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THE MAIN
THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS...WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES ALSO
POSSIBLE. THE TIMING FOR THIS WILL BE BETWEEN NOON AND 7 PM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER LOW AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.