Special Weather Statement, NWS Charleston, WV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
430 PM EDT SAT JUN 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Humid airmass in place tonight. Cold front pushes through Sunday.
A reinforcing cold front crosses Tuesday. Cool Canadian high
pressure crosses Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Very warm and humid airmass in place early this afternoon with
dewpoints in the 60s to low 70s. Combined with some sunshine have
MLCAPE climbing over 15000j/kg across southern WV. Already have showers
and thunderstorms taking off in this area. With the warm
temperatures, the freezing and -20C lines are rather high so still
thinking damaging winds would be the biggest threat severe-wise,
with hail a secondary threat. Of course, concerns remain about
potential water issues as PWAT values are close to 2 inches so
very heavy rain is expected from any stronger shower/storm. While
flash flood guidance is rather high, precipitation rates out of
these storms provide some concern...especially since multiple
rounds are expected. Will expand flash flood watch to cover much
of the rest of the CWA. Leaving out extreme NW where rain has not
impacted yet today.

Expecting another batch of showers and thunderstorms arriving
tonight -- this should be the leftovers of activity well to our
west this afternoon. And finally, expect the cold front to move
through Sunday, with a third round of showers and thunderstorms.
Some of these could produce some gusty outflow winds -- especially
across eastern CWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Cold front and upper level short wave trough cross Sunday evening,
taking the last of the showers and thunderstorms with it, and
setting the stage for a cooler week ahead. The cool down begins
modestly on Monday, in low level southwest flow beneath nearly
zonal upper level flow.

A reinforcing cold front crosses Tuesday. Convection is forecast
to fire up just upstream of the area Monday evening, but then
quickly weaken after sunset, so that only light showers occur as
the front crosses the area during the morning and perhaps into the
midday hours on Tuesday.

Low level moisture lingers Tuesday night in the wake of the front,
and a second upper level short wave trough crosses. This will keep
the chance for showers in the mountains in the evening, while
keeping clouds in the area into the evening before clearing from
the west takes place overnight.

Temperatures were raised a little in light of the latest guidance,
with the first front only bringing modest cooling, and unfavorable
radiative cooling conditions Tuesday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The long term period will be characterized by large scale
features with good model agreement. A long wave trough along the
east coast starts to drift offshore by Saturday, while a long wave
ridge over the Rockies drifts out over the plains Friday and then
over the midwest on Saturday.

Cool, Canadian high pressure brings dry weather Wednesday through
Thursday. A weak short wave trough in the upper level northwest
flow will cross Friday, but the air mass behind this front will
not be as cool as its predecessor, as heights rise, and canadian
high pressure does not make it as far south.

Temperatures a little lower than previous during the nadir of the
cool spell Wednesday and Wednesday night, and then close to
previous and central guidance in a moderating air mass thereafter.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Showers and thunderstorms on the increase across the forecast
area, and with humid airmass in place could see a shower or storm
anywhere at any time through the TAF period. Did try to pinpoint
best timing in TAFs, but confidence is not real high on this more
detailed timing. IFR possible in any of the stronger showers and
storms. In general winds will be variable and not overly strong.
However in the vicinity of showers and storms, some gusty outflow
is likely.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Low to medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and intensity of showers and storms
may vary.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M

AFTER 18Z SUNDAY...
IFR possible in showers and thunderstorms Sunday afternoon.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Flash Flood Watch until midnight EDT tonight for WVZ005>011-
     013>020-024>040-046-047.
OH...Flash Flood Watch until midnight EDT tonight for OHZ083-086-
     087.
KY...Flash Flood Watch until midnight EDT tonight for KYZ101>103-
     105.
VA...Flash Flood Watch until midnight EDT tonight for VAZ003-004.

&&

SYNOPSIS...TRM/MZ
NEAR TERM...MZ
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...MZ

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
231 PM EDT SAT JUN 4 2016

KYZ101>103-105-OHZ083-086-087-VAZ003-004-WVZ005>011-013>020-024>040-
046-047-051845-
GREENUP-CARTER-BOYD-LAWRENCE KY-JACKSON OH-GALLIA-LAWRENCE OH-
DICKENSON-BUCHANAN-WAYNE-CABELL-MASON-JACKSON WV-WOOD-PLEASANTS-
TYLER-LINCOLN-PUTNAM-KANAWHA-ROANE-WIRT-CALHOUN-RITCHIE-DODDRIDGE-
MINGO-LOGAN-BOONE-CLAY-BRAXTON-GILMER-LEWIS-HARRISON-TAYLOR-MCDOWELL-
WYOMING-RALEIGH-FAYETTE-NICHOLAS-WEBSTER-UPSHUR-BARBOUR-POCAHONTAS-
RANDOLPH-
231 PM EDT SAT JUN 4 2016

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST KENTUCKY...PORTIONS
OF SOUTHEAST OHIO...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND MUCH OF WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING COULD BECOME STRONG TO
SEVERE...WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE MOST LIKELY THREAT AND HAIL A
SECONDARY THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE ON SUNDAY THAT THUNDERSTORMS COULD
REPEATEDLY HIT THE SAME LOCATION IN A SHORT AMOUNT OF TIME. IF
THIS WERE TO HAPPEN...FLASH FLOODING COULD RESULT.

ISOLATED STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY COULD ALSO BE CAPABLE
OF DAMAGING WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
 CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

OHZ066-067-075-076-084-085-051845-
PERRY-MORGAN-ATHENS-WASHINGTON-VINTON-MEIGS-
231 PM EDT SAT JUN 4 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST OHIO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING COULD BECOME STRONG TO
SEVERE...WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE MOST LIKELY THREAT AND HAIL A
SECONDARY THREAT. HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE FROM THESE
SHOWERS AND STORMS WHICH COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE ON SUNDAY THAT THUNDERSTORMS COULD
REPEATEDLY HIT THE SAME LOCATION IN A SHORT AMOUNT OF TIME. IF
THIS WERE TO HAPPEN...FLASH FLOODING COULD RESULT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
 CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
434 PM EDT SAT JUN 04 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0336 PM     HAIL             MUDDLETY                38.37N  80.83W
06/04/2016  E1.25 INCH       NICHOLAS           WV   PUBLIC

            LOTS OF HAIL. TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR

&&

EVENT NUMBER RLX1600990

COOPER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
445 PM EDT SAT JUN 04 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0417 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 E WEBSTER SPRINGS     38.48N  80.37W
06/04/2016                   WEBSTER            WV   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TREES DOWN ALONG WV-15 EAST OF WEBSTER SPRINGS. TIME
            ESTIMATED FROM RADAR

&&

EVENT NUMBER RLX1600991

COOPER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
457 PM EDT SAT JUN 4 2016

WVZ024-025-042130-
LOGAN-MINGO-
457 PM EDT SAT JUN 4 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT WEST CENTRAL MINGO COUNTY...

AT 457 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS OVER CONDER...OR NEAR
WILLIAMSON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
WILLIAMSON...DELBARTON...CHATTAROY...HOLDEN...RED JACKET...MYRTLE AND
VARNEY.

THIS INCLUDES ROUTE 119 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 1 AND 23.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY CAUSE
LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE ELEVATED LEVELS ON
SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS...AND PONDING OF WATER ON COUNTRY ROADS AND
FARMLAND ALONG THE BANKS OF CREEKS AND STREAMS.

IN HILLY TERRAIN THERE ARE HUNDREDS OF LOW WATER CROSSINGS WHICH ARE
POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS IN HEAVY RAIN. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO TRAVEL ACROSS
FLOODED ROADS. FIND ALTERNATE ROUTES. IT TAKES ONLY A FEW INCHES OF
SWIFTLY FLOWING WATER TO CARRY VEHICLES AWAY.

LAT...LON 3764 8222 3766 8224 3766 8226 3768 8228
      3767 8229 3768 8230 3770 8230 3774 8233
      3776 8231 3776 8233 3783 8209 3772 8199
      3763 8222
TIME...MOT...LOC 2057Z 235DEG 30KT 3769 8238

14

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
542 PM EDT SAT JUN 4 2016

OHZ075-083>087-WVZ006>008-013>015-025-026-035-036-042215-
VINTON-LAWRENCE-GALLIA-MEIGS-JACKSON-ATHENS-MASON-CABELL-KANAWHA-
JACKSON-LOGAN-PUTNAM-RALEIGH-LINCOLN-BOONE-FAYETTE-
542 PM EDT SAT JUN 4 2016

AT 541 PM EDT...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM NEAR JACKSON TO 10 MILES NORTH OF MILTON TO NEAR
WHARTON...AND MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH AND PEA SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CHARLESTON...NITRO...JACKSON...WELLSTON...POINT PLEASANT...GALLIPOLIS...
MADISON...WINFIELD...POMEROY...MCARTHUR...OAK HILL...HAMLIN...RIO GRANDE...
ALBANY...RUTLAND...LAKE HOPE STATE PARK...JEFFERSON...SOUTH CHARLESTON...
ST. ALBANS AND DUNBAR.

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING HIGHWAYS...
 INTERSTATE 79 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 1 AND 11.
 INTERSTATE 77 IN WEST VIRGINIA BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 96 AND 123.
 INTERSTATE 64 IN WEST VIRGINIA BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 21 AND 57.
 WEST VIRGINIA TURNPIKE BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 64 AND 95.
 ROUTE 119 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 38 AND 80.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY
CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE ELEVATED LEVELS ON
SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS...AND PONDING OF WATER IN URBAN AREAS...
HIGHWAYS...STREETS AND UNDERPASSES...AS WELL AS OTHER POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS AND LOW LYING SPOTS.

LAT...LON 3937 8275 3937 8252 3940 8251 3939 8237
      3845 8146 3802 8128 3780 8190 3855 8232
      3883 8265 3885 8265 3885 8269 3891 8276
      3894 8275 3895 8281
TIME...MOT...LOC 2141Z 281DEG 55KT 3907 8273 3857 8220 3791 8178

14

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