Special Weather Statement, NWS Charleston, WV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
853 AM EDT SAT JUN 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Stationary front overhead keeps unsettled weather through the
weekend. A cold front finally pushes through on Sunday. A series of
reinforcing cold fronts move through early in the work week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
900 am update... Updated POPs based on current radar and trends.
Hi-res models not a lot of help so far this morning, as they are
all over the place. However, still thinking overall trend will be
increased coverage and strength of showers/storms into this
afternoon.

Previous discussion...
Highlights...Strong to severe thunderstorms expected this
afternoon as well as locally torrential rainfall.

Forecast Confidence...Medium.

Impact...MODERATE...with localized flash flooding and damaging
winds possible.

Discussion...Although mid to upper level cloud cover will be
widespread today there will likely be enough breaks or clouds will
be thin enough to see decent heating. Southwesterly flow with deep
fetch to the Gulf of Mexico will advect high THETA-E values into
the region. PWATs will be running in the 1.5 to 1.75 inch range
which is about 2 standard deviations above normal. By this
afternoon...forecast soundings are indicating that we will
destabilize enough to see 1000 to 1500 J/kg of CAPE across the
area. Although we start with fairly weak flow overhead...it will
increase from the southwest throughout the day. By late afternoon
0-6 km shear increases to about 30KTs. This should be sufficient
for organized convection...with even the potential of a few
supercells. For now I have added the wording for strong wind gusts to
the forecast...however more enhanced wording may be needed later
in the day if the threat continues to increase.

Main severe threat will be damaging winds...with the high PWATs
precipitation loading will possibly cause some powerful gusts.
Locally torrential rainfall will also bring the threat of flash
flooding. Biggest concern right now is in Pocahontas and Randolph
counties due to the low flash flood guidance values...and the
potential for cells to train over the mountains with the parallel
southwesterly flow. However...any storms that that move slow
enough or train will cause localized water issues...as rainfall
rates could be in the order of 2 to 3 inches per hour.

The severe threat should come to an end after 00Z when we lose the
daytime heating...but heavy showers and thunderstorms may persist
will into the overnight hours.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A cold front will push through the area on Sunday. With decent winds
aloft...storms will exhibit good movement. This will lessen the
chances of any water problems...although we will have to see if any
locations get super saturated today to see if any problems could
develop.

A series of reinforcing cold fronts will then move through on Monday
and Tuesday. Will keep pops low as these fronts are moisture
starved. This will allow for temperatures to gradually cool off
through mid week.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Model run to run consistency is weak, as previous runs showed a
large ridge, now there is a large trough. So, with this in mind
went more towards climo with general chances of rain most days
except Wed and Thu which should be dry. WV is riding the boundary
between a ridge and a trough most of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Conditions will improve to vfr everywhere by mid morning...however
scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon will bring the
threat for MVFR to IFR conditions once again. Convection will
become more and more widespread as we head into the early evening
hours. Very moist airmass in place will help produce locally
torrential rain. Although IFR conditions will be possible in
storms there is not enough confidence on the timing and coverage
to place in the heading of TAFs at this time. Plan on amending
TAFs when showers and storms develop and higher confidence exists
that the airfield will be affected.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Low to medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: IFR conditions with fog may persist a bit
longer than expect this morning at EKN and PKB. Also...timing and
intensity of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. Rain and
fog may keep conditions down into tomorrow morning.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23
EDT 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M

AFTER 12Z SUNDAY...
IFR possible in showers and thunderstorms through the weekend and
fog during the nighttime hours.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Flash Flood Watch from 4 PM EDT this afternoon through this
     evening for WVZ046-047.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...RPY/MPK
NEAR TERM...MZ/MPK
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...JW
AVIATION...MPK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
848 AM EDT SAT JUN 4 2016

WVZ046-047-051300-
POCAHONTAS-RANDOLPH-
848 AM EDT SAT JUN 4 2016

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN WEST
VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE THAT THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON COULD
BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE...WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE MOST LIKELY
THREAT AND HAIL A SECONDARY THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE ON SUNDAY THAT THUNDERSTORMS COULD
REPEATEDLY HIT THE SAME LOCATION IN A SHORT AMOUNT OF TIME. IF
THIS WERE TO HAPPEN...FLASH FLOODING COULD RESULT.

AGAIN...ISOLATED STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY COULD ALSO BE
CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
 CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

KYZ101>103-105-OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087-VAZ003-004-WVZ005>011-
013>020-024>040-051300-
GREENUP-CARTER-BOYD-LAWRENCE KY-PERRY-MORGAN-ATHENS-WASHINGTON-
JACKSON OH-VINTON-MEIGS-GALLIA-LAWRENCE OH-DICKENSON-BUCHANAN-WAYNE-
CABELL-MASON-JACKSON WV-WOOD-PLEASANTS-TYLER-LINCOLN-PUTNAM-KANAWHA-
ROANE-WIRT-CALHOUN-RITCHIE-DODDRIDGE-MINGO-LOGAN-BOONE-CLAY-BRAXTON-
GILMER-LEWIS-HARRISON-TAYLOR-MCDOWELL-WYOMING-RALEIGH-FAYETTE-
NICHOLAS-WEBSTER-UPSHUR-BARBOUR-
848 AM EDT SAT JUN 4 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST
KENTUCKY...SOUTHEAST OHIO...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND MUCH OF WEST
VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON COULD BECOME
STRONG TO SEVERE...WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE MOST LIKELY THREAT AND
HAIL A SECONDARY THREAT.

ALSO...HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED FROM SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. IF A SLOW MOVING STORM...OR MULTIPLE REPETITIVE
STORMS IMPACT THE SAME LOCATION...LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WOULD
BE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE ON SUNDAY THAT THUNDERSTORMS COULD
REPEATEDLY HIT THE SAME LOCATION IN A SHORT AMOUNT OF TIME. IF
THIS WERE TO HAPPEN...FLASH FLOODING COULD RESULT.

ALSO...ISOLATED STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY COULD BE CAPABLE
OF DAMAGING WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
 CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1040 AM EDT SAT JUN 4 2016

KYZ101-102-041515-
CARTER-GREENUP-
1040 AM EDT SAT JUN 4 2016

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN GREENUP
AND CARTER COUNTIES...

AT 1040 AM EDT...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM HEAD OF GRASSY TO NEAR HALDEMAN TO CHRISTY...AND MOVING
EAST AT 20 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH AND PEA SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
GRAYSON...OLIVE HILL...CARTER CAVES STATE PARK...GREENBO LAKE...GESLING...
OLDTOWN...CARTER...HOPEWELL...SOLDIER...GRAHN...GLOBE AND WARNOCK.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 64 IN KENTUCKY BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 150 AND
173.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY
CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE ELEVATED LEVELS ON
SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS...AND PONDING OF WATER ON COUNTRY ROADS AND
FARMLAND ALONG THE BANKS OF CREEKS AND STREAMS.

LAT...LON 3833 8332 3833 8327 3834 8323 3835 8324
      3842 8324 3847 8319 3849 8319 3856 8288
      3833 8291 3822 8310 3827 8318 3823 8322
      3819 8323 3819 8326 3822 8329 3821 8330
      3826 8332
TIME...MOT...LOC 1440Z 256DEG 16KT 3841 8324 3827 8325 3821 8337

12