Special Weather Statement, NWS Raleigh, NC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
925 PM EDT FRI JUL 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A series of upper disturbances aloft in combination with a hot and
buoyant air mass will cause periods of scattered convection across
central NC through Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
As of 925 PM Friday...

Broken bands of convection will continue to push sewd across the
southern half of central NC through 04Z. Widespread wind damage has
occurred over most sections of the northern Piedmont into the
northern coastal plain. While DCAPE values in the 1000-1200 J/kg
across the southern counties, surface based CIN beginning to
increase which may limit the potential for the stronger/damaging
winds from reaching the surface. Based on radar trends, severe t-
storm will likely be canceled for many counties north of highway 64
by 10 or 1030 PM.

Should see an overall decrease in storm coverage and intensity after
04z. Expect skies to become partly cloudy or mostly clear overnight
with min temps in the 70-75 degree range.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 325 PM Friday...

Central NC will be on the subsidence side of the departing MCV
Saturday morning. This should inhibit any convective development. By
afternoon, strong heating will aid to destabilize the atmosphere
with the best instability projected to lie across our far southern
and eastern counties. Thus, expect isolated-scattered storms to
development after 19z, though mainly confined to areas south of
highway 64 and east of I-95. Cannot rule out the potential for an
isolated wind gusts but lack of significant instability and
effective bulk shear on the order of 20-25kts should limit the
severe potential.

Most locations will experience plenty of sun which will warm temps
back into the low-mid 90s, with a spot or two in the southern
coastal plain and sandhills possibly reaching the upper 90s.
Afternoon heat indices projected to be in the upper 90s across the
nw to 101-104 degrees over the southern and se counties. Bulk of t-
storm activity will dissipate with loss of heating. A weak sfc front
will drift swd overnight into our region. At this time forcing
appears too weak to support any shower/storm development. Min temps
in the 70-75 degree range.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 255 PM Friday...

A front is progged to make its way south through central NC late
Saturday night into early Sunday morning. It is then expected to
stall in the vicinity of the NC/SC border. Models have come in
slightly drier on Sunday as the front sinks south of the region,
with only the extreme southern portions of the forecast area seeing
a slight chance of precip. Temps will be slightly cooler behind the
front, with highs ranging from near 90 degrees across the north to
low 90s further south. The front will meander near the region
through the early part of the week and therefore precip chances
should increase (closer to climo) as disturbances may track along
the stalled front.

Then, there is some disagreement with regards to an upper
disturbance/low slowly tracking towards the region from the west for
the middle of the week. There are also indications of a short wave
ridge expanding east over the Atlantic coast by the middle of the
week. Given the uncertainty, will trend towards climo with regards
to precip chances. Temps will also be close to normal, with highs in
the low to mid 90s and overnight lows in the low to mid 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 1250 PM Friday...

A line of strong-severe convection with associated MVFR ceilings and
IFR visibilities will continue to push sewd across central NC
through 04Z. The convection will clear-out of the KINT/KGSO sites by
02Z, and KRDU and KRWI by 03Z. The storms should clear the KFAY
vicinity by 04Z. In vicinity of the stronger/severe storms, sfc wind
gusts 45-60kts possible. Skies will gradually clear out between 04Z
and 07Z.

VFR conditions expected to occur through Sunday night with scattered
afternoon-early evening convection probable. The probability of
afternoon convection may increase Monday-Wednesday. In addition, may
see the occurrence of early morning fog/low clouds by Monday morning
and associated IFR/low end MVFR ceilings and visibility.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...KRD
AVIATION...WSS

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