Severe Thunderstorm Warning 193, NWS Raleigh, NC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
830 PM EDT FRI JUL 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A series of upper disturbances aloft in combination with a hot and
buoyant air mass will cause periods of scattered convection across
central NC through Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
As of 255 PM Friday...

Little change to earlier thinking. Strong heating has resulted in
DCAPE 1200-1400 J/kg across the region. With additional heating,
values as high as 1500 possible across the south and east. Aloft,
mid level lapse rates around 7 deg C/km being realized,
uncharacteristic for this time of year.  The buoyancy attributed to
the strong heating and the cool pool aloft will support the
development of scattered strong/severe storms late this afternoon in
the nw piedmont, and this evening across the remainder of central NC.
Expect storm structure to start out as multi-cellular but increasing
effective shear to near 30kts by 00Z suggest the potential for
storms to organize into broken lines with bowing segments and
attendant wind damage.

The conditions suggest that there is a good chance for numerous
reports of wind gusts between 50-60 mph and would not be surprised
if a spot or two reported a wind gusts of 65 mph or higher. In
addition, enough instability resides aloft to suggest that the
storms will produce an excessive amount of lightning. Finally, the
strongest cells may also be accompanied by hail the size of quarters
or ping pong balls.

Current indications are that the severe weather threat will be
greatest in the piedmont between 21z-01z, and in the coastal plain
and sandhills between 23z-03z. Should see an overall decrease in
storm coverage and intensity after 04z. Expect skies to become
mostly clear overnight with min temps in the 70-75 degree range.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 325 PM Friday...

Central NC will be on the subsidence side of the departing MCV
Saturday morning. This should inhibit any convective development. By
afternoon, strong heating will aid to destabilize the atmosphere
with the best instability projected to lie across our far southern
and eastern counties. Thus, expect isolated-scattered storms to
development after 19z, though mainly confined to areas south of
highway 64 and east of I-95. Cannot rule out the potential for an
isolated wind gusts but lack of significant instability and
effective bulk shear on the order of 20-25kts should limit the
severe potential.

Most locations will experience plenty of sun which will warm temps
back into the low-mid 90s, with a spot or two in the southern
coastal plain and sandhills possibly reaching the upper 90s.
Afternoon heat indices projected to be in the upper 90s across the
nw to 101-104 degrees over the southern and se counties. Bulk of t-
storm activity will dissipate with loss of heating. A weak sfc front
will drift swd overnight into our region. At this time forcing
appears too weak to support any shower/storm development. Min temps
in the 70-75 degree range.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 255 PM Friday...

A front is progged to make its way south through central NC late
Saturday night into early Sunday morning. It is then expected to
stall in the vicinity of the NC/SC border. Models have come in
slightly drier on Sunday as the front sinks south of the region,
with only the extreme southern portions of the forecast area seeing
a slight chance of precip. Temps will be slightly cooler behind the
front, with highs ranging from near 90 degrees across the north to
low 90s further south. The front will meander near the region
through the early part of the week and therefore precip chances
should increase (closer to climo) as disturbances may track along
the stalled front.

Then, there is some disagreement with regards to an upper
disturbance/low slowly tracking towards the region from the west for
the middle of the week. There are also indications of a short wave
ridge expanding east over the Atlantic coast by the middle of the
week. Given the uncertainty, will trend towards climo with regards
to precip chances. Temps will also be close to normal, with highs in
the low to mid 90s and overnight lows in the low to mid 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 1250 PM Friday...

A line of strong-severe convection with associated MVFR ceilings and
IFR visibilities will continue to push sewd across central NC
through 04Z. The convection will clear-out of the KINT/KGSO sites by
02Z, and KRDU and KRWI by 03Z. The storms should clear the KFAY
vicinity by 04Z. In vicinity of the stronger/severe storms, sfc wind
gusts 45-60kts possible. Skies will gradually clear out between 04Z
and 07Z.

VFR conditions expected to occur through Sunday night with scattered
afternoon-early evening convection probable. The probability of
afternoon convection may increase Monday-Wednesday. In addition, may
see the occurrence of early morning fog/low clouds by Monday morning
and associated IFR/low end MVFR ceilings and visibility.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...KRD
AVIATION...WSS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
622 PM EDT FRI JUL 8 2016

NCZ007>011-021>028-038>041-043-073-074-076-083-092230-
PERSON-GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-HALIFAX-FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE-
ORANGE-DURHAM-FRANKLIN-NASH-EDGECOMBE-DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-CHATHAM-WAKE-
WILSON-STANLY-MONTGOMERY-LEE-ANSON-
622 PM EDT FRI JUL 8 2016

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 363 IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT
TONIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OR TRACK
INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. A FEW
STORMS WILL BE SEVERE PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL
POSSIBLY UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS. IN ADDITION, THE STORMS HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE AN EXCESSIVE AMOUNT OF CLOUD-TO-GROUND
LIGHTNING.

THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS APPEARS HIGHEST BETWEEN THE HOURS OF
3 PM AND 10 PM, STARTING IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT THEN SPREADING
EAST WITH TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

NCZ042-075-077-078-084>086-088-089-092230-
JOHNSTON-MOORE-HARNETT-WAYNE-RICHMOND-SCOTLAND-HOKE-CUMBERLAND-
SAMPSON-
622 PM EDT FRI JUL 8 2016

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 363 IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT
TONIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OR TRACK
INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. A FEW
STORMS WILL BE SEVERE PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL
POSSIBLY UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS. IN ADDITION, THE STORMS HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE AN EXCESSIVE AMOUNT OF FREQUENT CLOUD-
TO-GROUND LIGHTNING.

THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS APPEARS HIGHEST BETWEEN THE HOURS OF
5 PM AND 10 PM, STARTING IN THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PIEDMONT
THEN SPREADING EAST WITH TIME.

AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES IN THE 102 TO 105 DEGREE RANGE WILL OCCUR
BETWEEN 1 PM AND 7 PM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
815 PM EDT FRI JUL 8 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0745 PM     TSTM WND DMG     WARRENTON               36.40N 78.16W
07/08/2016                   WARREN             NC   911 CALL CENTER

            WARREN COUNTY 911 REPORTS AT LEAST 10 TREES
            DOWN ACROSS THE COUNTY.

&&

NWS RALEIGH NC
IRIS SYSTEM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
823 PM EDT FRI JUL 8 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0820 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 SSE CLEMMONS          36.00N 80.38W
07/08/2016                   FORSYTH            NC   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SEVERAL TREES BLOWN DOWN IN THE AREA OF
            MIDDLEBROOK DR AND IDOLS RD.

&&

NWS RALEIGH NC
IRIS SYSTEM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
829 PM EDT FRI JUL 8 2016

NCZ039>043-075>078-088-089-090130-
JOHNSTON-CUMBERLAND-WAKE-RANDOLPH-LEE-WILSON-CHATHAM-MOORE-WAYNE-
HARNETT-SAMPSON-
829 PM EDT FRI JUL 8 2016

...GUSTY WINDS OUT AHEAD OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF
JOHNSTON...NORTH CENTRAL CUMBERLAND...SOUTHWESTERN WAKE...
SOUTHEASTERN RANDOLPH...LEE...SOUTHWESTERN WILSON...SOUTHERN
CHATHAM...MOORE... WAYNE...HARNETT AND NORTHWESTERN SAMPSON COUNTIES
UNTIL 930 PM EDT...

AT 827 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
GUST FRONT LINE PRODUCING WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM NEAR SILER CITY TO 9 MILES NORTH OF SMITHFIELD...AND
MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
GOLDSBORO...SANFORD...SMITHFIELD...LILLINGTON...CARTHAGE...WILSON...
GARNER...FUQUAY-VARINA...CLAYTON AND PINEHURST.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEEK SHELTER IN A NEARBY BUILDING OR VEHICLE. WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS
40 MPH ARE CAPABLE OF KNOCKING DOWN TREE LIMBS AND BLOWING AROUND
TRASH CANS...POTTED PLANTS...LAWN FURNITURE AND OTHER LIGHT OUTDOOR
OBJECTS.

&&

LAT...LON 3523 7789 3522 7966 3525 7969 3569 7969
      3570 7788
TIME...MOT...LOC 0027Z 314DEG 31KT 3565 7950 3564 7829

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
841 PM EDT FRI JUL 8 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0835 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 SE LEXINGTON          35.79N 80.23W
07/08/2016                   DAVIDSON           NC   911 CALL CENTER

            TREE DOWN ON I-85 NEAR MILE MARKER 93. IN
            ADDITION, DAVIDSON 911 REPORTS NUMEROUS
            OTHER TREES DOWN ACROSS THE COUNTY.

&&

NWS RALEIGH NC
IRIS SYSTEM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
856 PM EDT FRI JUL 8 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0825 PM     TSTM WND DMG     TARBORO                 35.91N 77.56W
07/08/2016                   EDGECOMBE          NC   911 CALL CENTER

            EDGECOMBE COUNTY 911 REPORTS NUMEROUS TREES
            DOWN ACROSS THE COUNTY.

&&

NWS RALEIGH NC
IRIS SYSTEM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
903 PM EDT FRI JUL 8 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0900 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 NE MARTHA             35.66N 79.98W
07/08/2016                   RANDOLPH           NC   EMERGENCY MNGR

            RANDOLPH COUNTY EM REPORTS AT LEAST 12-15
            REPORTS OF DOWNED TREES ACROSS THE COUNTY.

&&

NWS RALEIGH NC
IRIS SYSTEM