Special Weather Statement, NWS Raleigh, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
220 PM EDT MON MAR 14 2016

.SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CROSS OUR REGION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...BRINGING UNSETTLED WEATHER. A WEAK
FRONTAL ZONE WILL HOVER NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA VIRGINIA BORDER
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING... BEFORE LIFTING NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT... STALL OUT OVER THE CAROLINAS THROUGH THURSDAY...
THEN PUSH TO OUR SOUTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 220 PM MONDAY...

WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE LOW STRATUS STILL IN PLACE NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE FAR NRN TIER OF NC... THE STRATUS ELSEWHERE HAS
LIFTED AND MIXED OUT... ALLOWING FOR GOOD HEATING OVER THE SRN TWO
THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA. CONVECTION IS UNDERWAY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/SRN PIEDMONT AND WRN SANDHILLS... WITH SHOWERS POPPING UP
FROM THE TRIANGLE SW TOWARD ROCKINGHAM. THESE WILL INCREASE IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AS THEY HEAD ENE INTO MARKEDLY MORE MOIST
(DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S) AND UNSTABLE AIR IN THE ERN SANDHILLS AND
COASTAL PLAIN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. WEAK VORTICITY OVER THE
ERN CAROLINAS -- SE OF THE POTENT UPPER WAVE NOW OVER CENTRAL KY/TN -
- AND ITS ATTENDANT DPVA ALONG WITH A MAX IN STJ-INDUCED UPPER
DIVERGENCE WILL PROVIDE EXTRA DYNAMIC SUPPORT FOR THIS CONVECTION.
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE ALREADY NEAR 7.5 C/KM AND RISING... WITH
INCOMING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7-7.5 C/KM... AND MLCAPE IS
ALREADY UP TO 1500 J/KG WITH 40 KTS OF EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR...
SO SEE NO REASON WHY THESE WON'T CONTINUE TO GROW UPSCALE...
PARTICULARLY WITH -10C TO -30C LAYER CAPE UP TO 400 J/KG. WILL FOCUS
HIGHEST POPS FROM THE TRIANGLE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON. THEN... THE NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH VA/NC THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT... LIKELY
GENERATING A MORE ORGANIZED BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED TO
PIVOT ENE OVER WRN/NRN NC WITH LESSER COVERAGE TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST... WHERE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT SHOULD
BE A BIT LOWER. DESPITE THE DECREASE IN LOW LEVEL WARMTH NEAR AND
SOON AFTER SUNSET AS WELL AS THE ANTICIPATED DIP IN THE HIGH MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES... THE BETTER KINEMATICS SHOULD HELP BOOST STORM
INTENSITY AND ORGANIZATION. LARGE HAIL REMAINS THE PRIMARY THREAT
AREAWIDE... WITH A SLIGHTLY LOWER RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS. FOLLOWING
THE EXPERIMENTAL HRRR TIMING... WE SHOULD SEE STORMS MOVING OUT OF
THE NE CWA NEAR OR SOON AFTER MIDNIGHT... WITH A CLEARING TREND FROM
SW TO NE LATE. RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE NE CWA COULD LEAD
TO AREAS OF FOG OR SHALLOW STRATUS BEFORE THE DRIER DEWPOINTS ARRIVE
VERY LATE TONIGHT... HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS LOW. AFTER HIGHS
THIS AFTERNOON FROM AROUND 70 NEAR THE VA BORDER TO THE UPPER
70S/LOWER 80S ELSEWHERE... EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT IN THE MID TO UPPER
50S (NW TO SE). -GIH

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 155 PM MONDAY...

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...MID LEVEL S/W AND ATTENDANT SFC COLD
FRONT WILL EXIT OUR FAR EASTERN COUNTIES PRIOR TO
DAYBREAK...ALLOWING A S/W RIDGE TO CROSS OUR REGION. SUBSIDENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER FEATURE SHOULD RESULT IN MOSTLY SUNNY-
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. AIR MASS BEHIND THE FRONT IS OF PACIFIC ORIGIN
AND WITH DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT OF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW...TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID MARCH. HIGH TEMPERATURES
SHOULD VARY FROM THE MID 70S FAR NE WHERE CLOUDS WILL BE LAST TO
DEPART...TO THE LOWER 80S SOUTH. CONTINUED MILD TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
MIN TEMPS 55-60.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...S/W RIDGE MOVES EAST EARLY WEDNESDAY
WHILE A DEEP UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES
BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED. THIS WILL FORCE A SFC COLD FRONT TO SWING
ACROSS CENTRAL NC WEDNESDAY. WESTERLY FLOW PROCEEDING THE FRONT WILL
LIMIT MOISTURE ADVECTION; THUS...EXPECT THE FRONT TO CROSS CENTRAL
NC DRY THOUGH AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT
IN THE EAST CONSIDERING THE TIME OF DAY THAT THE FRONT IS CROSSING
THE REGION. IF THE FASTER GFS/NAM SOLUTION VERIFIES...850MB TROUGH
EXITS THE REGION BY EARLY AFTERNOON. WHILE LOW LEVEL CAA EXPECTED
BEHIND THIS FEATURE...DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT OF THE FLOW WILL INITIALLY
OFFSET/LIMIT THE COLD AIR.  WITH THICKNESSES COMPARABLE TO THE PAST
FEW DAYS...AND LOW LEVEL SW-WESTERLY FLOW FACTORED IN...EXPECT HIGH
TEMPS TO REACH THE 80-85 DEGREE RANGE ACROSS THE REGION. THESE
VALUES ARE JUST A COUPLE OF DEGREES SHY OF THE RECORD HIGH TEMPS FOR
MARCH 16TH. MIN TEMPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 155 PM MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE BEGINS TO WANE THIS PERIOD AS UPPER AIR PATTERN
OVER THE EASTERN U.S. UNDER GOES A CHANGE.

A SERIES OF S/W AND ATTENDANT SFC COLD FRONTS WILL CROSS THE REGION
THU AND FRIDAY. GFS HAS TRENDED WETTER WITH THE LEAD S/W AND SFC
FRONT THOUGH THIS MAY BE OVERDONE CONSIDERING MOISTURE ADVECTION
LIMITED DUE TO WLY FLOW. STILL COULD SEE A BAND OF CLOUDINESS AND
POSSIBLY A SHOWER OR TWO ON THU. NOTICEABLY COOLER AIR WILL
OVERSPREAD THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AS A DRY
AIR RIDGE BUILDS/EXTENDS ACROSS THE REGION.

THIS SFC RIDGE WILL DRIFT OFFSHORE LATE SATURDAY WHILE A MID-UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH UNDERGOES AMPLIFICATION OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. S/W
TROUGHS ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH EXPECTED TO
INDUCE SFC LOW GENERATION OVER THE DEEP SOUTH/NORTHERN GULF COAST
SATURDAY...LIFTING ACROSS THE SE U.S. SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING A DECENT ROUND OF RAIN TO THE
CAROLINAS. WILL LIKELY SEE COOLER/SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS OCCUR
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS SFC PATTERN SIGNALS THE POTENTIAL FOR A
HYBRID OR INSITU DAMMING EVENT.  THE UPPER TROUGH EXPECTED TO CROSS
THE CAROLINAS MONDAY...BRINGING AN END TO THE RAIN THREAT.

TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL TRENDED DOWNWARD...STARTING OUT IN THE
70S THURSDAY...60S FRIDAY...AND 50S/LOWER 60S SATURDAY/SUNDAY...AND
50S MONDAY. OVERNIGHT TEMPS IN THE 40S EXPECTED WITH 30S POSSIBLE
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1205 PM MONDAY...

ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE...
BUT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WILL
BRING THEIR OWN AVIATION HAZARDS WITH A RISK OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
AND SOME HAIL. STUBBORN IFR/LIFR STRATUS PERSISTS ALONG AND TO THE
NORTH OF A FRONTAL ZONE NOW STALLED ACROSS FAR NRN PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL NC. IFR CONDITIONS AT INT/GSO AND MVFR CONDITIONS AT
RDU/RWI/FAY HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO IMPROVE AND ALL SITES ARE EXPECTED
TO BE VFR AT THE START OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD... ALTHOUGH SCATTERED
TO BROKEN CUMULUS BASED AT 3 000 TO 4 000 AGL IS ANTICIPATED
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SCATTERED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BREAK OUT
THIS AFTERNOON... MOST LIKELY AFFECTING FAY WITH A SLIGHTLY LOWER
CHANCE AT RDU/RWI AND AN EVEN LOWER CHANCE AT INT/GSO. HOWEVER...
ARRIVAL OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
MORE ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING... AND THIS WILL
PARTICULARLY AFFECT INT/GSO WITH A SLIGHTLY LOWER THREAT AT
RDU/RWI/FAY. THIS SECOND ROUND OF STORMS SHOULD SHIFT EASTWARD
ACROSS CENTRAL NC THIS EVENING... EXITING OUR NORTHEAST SOON AFTER 1
AM/05Z. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR OUT FROM SW TO NE LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH TUE MORNING (FROM 08Z TO 16Z)... WITH SURFACE WINDS BECOMING
WNW OR NW WITH VFR CONDITIONS DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS OF THE
TAF VALID PERIOD.

LOOKING BEYOND 18Z TUE... VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO HOLD THROUGH
SAT. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALONG THE STALLED FRONT LATE
WED NIGHT THROUGH THU AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ALONG THE
FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA... BUT ANY SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS WOULD BE BRIEF. -GIH

&&

.CLIMATE...

HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH 16TH.

RDU     86/1945
GSO     85/1945
FAY     87/1945

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

&&

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...WSS
AVIATION...HARTFIELD
CLIMATE...RAH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
514 PM EDT MON MAR 14 2016

NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089-151200-
PERSON-GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-HALIFAX-FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE-
ORANGE-DURHAM-FRANKLIN-NASH-EDGECOMBE-DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-CHATHAM-WAKE-
JOHNSTON-WILSON-STANLY-MONTGOMERY-MOORE-LEE-HARNETT-WAYNE-ANSON-
RICHMOND-SCOTLAND-HOKE-CUMBERLAND-SAMPSON-
514 PM EDT MON MAR 14 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA
DURING THE EVENING HOURS. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME
SEVERE... WITH A PRIMARY THREAT OF LARGE HAIL THE SIZE OF
QUARTERS. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OVER 60 MPH ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
326 PM EDT MON MAR 14 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0318 PM     HAIL             1 E FUQUAY-VARINA       35.59N  78.78W
03/14/2016  E0.75 INCH       WAKE               NC   AMATEUR RADIO

            IN FUQUAY VARINA AT N. MAIN AND JUDD PARKWAY.

&&

EVENT NUMBER RAH1600515

RAH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
330 PM EDT MON MAR 14 2016

NCZ041-042-077-142030-
JOHNSTON NC-WAKE NC-HARNETT NC-
330 PM EDT MON MAR 14 2016

 ...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
JOHNSTON...SOUTH CENTRAL WAKE AND NORTHEASTERN HARNETT COUNTIES UNTIL
430 PM EDT...

AT 329 PM EDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM NEAR FUQUAY-VARINA...OR 10 MILES NORTH OF LILLINGTON...
MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
RALEIGH...GARNER...FUQUAY-VARINA...ANGIER...HOLLY SPRINGS...LAKE
BENSON...DUNCAN...LAKE WHEELER AND COATS CROSSROADS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEEK SHELTER IN A NEARBY BUILDING OR VEHICLE. WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS
40 MPH ARE CAPABLE OF KNOCKING DOWN TREE LIMBS AND BLOWING AROUND
TRASH CANS...POTTED PLANTS...LAWN FURNITURE AND OTHER LIGHT OUTDOOR
OBJECTS.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL QUICKLY REDUCE VISIBILITY AND RESULT IN
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS. DRIVERS ARE URGED TO SLOW DOWN AND USE
EXTRA CAUTION TO AVOID HYDROPLANING.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
TAKE SHELTER INDOORS IMMEDIATELY. IF YOU CANNOT FIND SHELTER
INDOORS...AN ENCLOSED VEHICLE CAN PROVIDE SAFE SHELTER FROM
LIGHTNING. DEADLY LIGHTNING STRIKES CAN OCCUR WELL AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING STORM...PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF RAIN AND WIND.

&&

LAT...LON 3547 7885 3558 7890 3580 7860 3551 7845
TIME...MOT...LOC 1929Z 247DEG 13KT 3554 7882

ELLIS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
441 PM EDT MON MAR 14 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0258 PM     HAIL             1 SSW FUQUAY-VARINA     35.58N  78.80W
03/14/2016  E0.88 INCH       WAKE               NC   TRAINED SPOTTER

            A LOT OF NICKLE SIZE HAIL.

&&

EVENT NUMBER RAH1600516

RAH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
549 PM EDT MON MAR 14 2016

NCZ008-024-025-142245-
DURHAM NC-ORANGE NC-GRANVILLE NC-
549 PM EDT MON MAR 14 2016

 ...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF DURHAM...
SOUTHEASTERN ORANGE AND SOUTHWESTERN GRANVILLE COUNTIES UNTIL 645 PM
EDT...

AT 549 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR DURHAM...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
DURHAM...CHAPEL HILL...HILLSBOROUGH...BUTNER...LAKE BUTNER...LAKE
MICHIE...ENO RIVER STATE PARK...GORMAN...ROLLINGVIEW MARINA AND
BAHAMA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEEK SHELTER IN A NEARBY BUILDING OR VEHICLE. WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS
40 MPH ARE CAPABLE OF KNOCKING DOWN TREE LIMBS AND BLOWING AROUND
TRASH CANS...POTTED PLANTS...LAWN FURNITURE AND OTHER LIGHT OUTDOOR
OBJECTS.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL QUICKLY REDUCE VISIBILITY AND RESULT IN
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS. DRIVERS ARE URGED TO SLOW DOWN AND USE
EXTRA CAUTION TO AVOID HYDROPLANING.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
TAKE SHELTER INDOORS IMMEDIATELY. IF YOU CANNOT FIND SHELTER
INDOORS...AN ENCLOSED VEHICLE CAN PROVIDE SAFE SHELTER FROM
LIGHTNING. DEADLY LIGHTNING STRIKES CAN OCCUR WELL AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING STORM...PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF RAIN AND WIND.

&&

LAT...LON 3608 7871 3607 7875 3603 7875 3602 7874
      3603 7872 3601 7870 3599 7871 3590 7903
      3607 7912 3624 7883 3624 7880
TIME...MOT...LOC 2149Z 244DEG 11KT 3603 7900

ELLIS