Severe Thunderstorm Warning 59, NWS Raleigh, NC

711 
WWUS52 KRAH 290150
SVSRAH

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
950 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

NCC101-183-290200-
/O.CON.KRAH.SV.W.0059.000000T0000Z-160429T0200Z/
JOHNSTON NC-WAKE NC-
950 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM EDT
FOR NORTH CENTRAL JOHNSTON AND EAST CENTRAL WAKE COUNTIES...

AT 948 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR CLAYTON...OR
11 MILES SOUTHEAST OF RALEIGH...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEGETATION IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE
         TO TREES. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CLAYTON AND WENDELL. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD TO
POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3563 7837 3568 7857 3578 7853 3578 7831
TIME...MOT...LOC 0148Z 293DEG 21KT 3572 7849 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

622 
WWUS52 KRAH 290154
SVSRAH

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
954 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

NCC101-183-290203-
/O.EXP.KRAH.SV.W.0059.000000T0000Z-160429T0200Z/
JOHNSTON NC-WAKE NC-
954 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTH CENTRAL JOHNSTON AND
EAST CENTRAL WAKE COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 1000 PM EDT...
                
THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSES AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY.
THEREFORE THE WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.  HOWEVER HEAVY RAIN
IS STILL POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

LAT...LON 3563 7837 3568 7857 3578 7853 3578 7831
TIME...MOT...LOC 0152Z 281DEG 31KT 3572 7849 

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
815 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A FRONTAL ZONE WILL REMAIN STALLED TO THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL
SAG SOUTH INTO THE REGION AS A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT
AND WILL QUICKLY RETURN NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT LATE SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 250 PM THURSDAY...

CURRENTLY CENTRAL NC IS CURRENTLY IN A CONVECTIVE LULL...OWING TO
PRONOUNCED DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL
SHEAR AXIS THAT CROSSED AREA THIS MORNING. HOWEVER WARM SECTOR
DESTABILIZATION OF 1500-2000 J/KG MLCAPE...ALONG THE QUASI-
STATIONARY BOUNDARY EXTENDING ACROSS SOUTHERN VA/NORTHEAST NC SHOULD
PROVIDE SUFFICIENT LIFT TO INITIATE CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...WITH ADDITIONAL DOWNSTREAM STORM DEVELOPMENT AS A RESULT
OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS. WILL KEEP POPS IN THE LIKELY TO
GOOD CHANCE RANGES...HIGHEST ACROSS THE NORTH NEAR THE FRONT.

STRENGTHENING WESTERLY H5 FLOW WILL IMPROVE SHEAR
VALUES TO 35 TO 40KTS...FAVORABLE FOR MULTICELLS WITH ONE OR TWO
SEVERE CLUSTERS POSSIBLE. MAIN THREAT WILL DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM
WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL.

PRECIP CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DECREASE FROM WEST-EAST
TONIGHT AS THE STORMS PUSH EAST AND OUT OF THE AREA AS DRIER AIR
SPREADS INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. LOWS TONIGHT RANGING FROM NEAR
60 NORTH TO MID 60S SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT /...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...

DOMINATED BY WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND RISING
HEIGHTS/WARMING TEMPERATURES ALOFT AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING RE-EXERTS
ITSELF BACK OVER THE AREA...A DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS WILL PRECLUDE
ANY RAIN/CONVECTIVE CHANCES ON FRIDAY AS THE FRONT REMAINS STALLED
ACROSS THE AREA. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY...RANGING
FROM UPPER 70S NE TO MID 80S SOUTH.

THE FRONT IS FINALLY FORECAST TO SLIP SLOWLY SOUTH FRIDAY EVENING...
BUT NOT TOO FAR SOUTH...THIS TIME PROGGED TO BRIEFLY STALL ALONG THE
NC/SC STATE LINE ON SATURDAY. SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH LOWS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 50S NORTH TO UPPER 50S/NEAR 60 SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 340 PM THURSDAY...

A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL INITIALLY COVER THE LOWER 48
SATURDAY. THIS WILL TRANSITION TO AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN U.S. AND AN TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS LOWER THAN NORMAL DUE TO THIS TRANSITION AS MODELS USUALLY HAVING
DIFFICULTY RESOLVING WHICH PARTICULAR S/W WILL CAUSE AN ENHANCED
CHANCE OF PRECIP TO A GIVEN REGION.

SINCE WEDNESDAY...THE MODELS HAVE SPED UP THE RETURN FLOW OF
MOISTURE INTO CENTRAL NC SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE S/W
RIDGE SCOOTS QUICKLY EAST SATURDAY MORNING. THIS LOW LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION COUPLED WITH A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES ALOFT WILL INCREASE
RAIN CHANCES SW-NE ACROSS CENTRAL NC SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. WHILE A SHORT-LIVED HYBRID/INSITU DAMMING EVENT MAY
OCCUR SATURDAY AFTERNOON-SATURDAY EVENING... MODEL GUIDANCE NOW
SUGGESTING THAT A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT...PLACING CENTRAL NC SOLIDLY IN THE WARM SECTOR ON SUNDAY.
THUS HAVE ADJUSTED MAX TEMPS UP SEVERAL DEGREES FROM EARLIER
FORECAST AND BACKED SFC WINDS TO A SWLY DIRECTION.

S/W IN THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL DRAG A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS
CENTRAL NC LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...BRINGING ANOTHER THREAT
FIR SCATTERED CONVECTION. NELY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL ADVECT A COOLER
AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS TUESDAY LEADING TO PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER
AND COOLER DAYTIME TEMPS. -WSS

AMPLIFYING RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL ALLOW FOR A DIGGING
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WITH A DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL FEATURE
TO OUR SOUTH.  GFS SHOWS A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING
OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN FL ON TUE AFTERNOON.  ECMWF SHOWS A MUCH
STRONGER BUT MUCH SLOWER DEVELOPING DISTURBANCE OVER THE MS VALLEY.
WITH THE CURRENT PATTERN AND SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE ECMWF... THE GFS
SEEMS TO BE THE MORE REALISTIC SOLUTION AT THIS TIME ALTHOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS LOW. THE LOW WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AND MOVE NORTHWARD
ALONG THE COAST FOR WED NIGHT INTO THU. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS EASTERLY
AND NORTHEASTERLY WINDS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
THE WEATHER PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW COULD BRING SOME
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ALONG WITH INCREASE RAIN CHANCES FOR WED NIGHT
AND INTO THU MORNING WITH POPS TAPERING OFF AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES
NORTHEASTWARD. TEMPS ARE CURRENTLY FORECASTED TO BE 5 TO 8 BELOW
CLIMO ON WED WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND MOISTURE ADVECTION OFF
OF THE ATLANTIC.  THE COLD AIR ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS COULD
BE LIGHT ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO GET CLOSER TO CLIMO.
CLOUD COVER COULD LIMIT THE CURRENT FORECAST LOWS... HOWEVER GFS
SUGGESTS LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUING WED NIGHT. -JLB

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 815 PM THURSDAY...

CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT AND
NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH 04Z/MIDNIGHT
LOCAL TIME. IN VICINITY OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND STORMS...EXPECT A
BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS. AFTER 06Z...POCKETS OF MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS AND FOG WILL DEVELOP...MAINLY IN VICINITY OF KRDU AND KRWI.

ELSEWHERE...BRIEF INTERVALS OF MVFR/IFR FOG AND/OR CEILINGS WILL
OCCUR BETWEEN 09Z-13Z. AFTER 14Z...EXPECT CLOUD BASES TO LIFT AND
SCATTER BY MID-LATE MORNING AS DRIER AIR INFILTRATES THE
REGION...RESULTING IN VFR CONDITIONS.

THE OPTIMAL AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL BE SHORT IN DURATION AS A QUICK
RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE WILL ADVANCE OVER THE PIEDMONT SATURDAY
MORNING. THIS WILL LEAD TO THICKENING LOWER CLOUD DECK AND SPOTS OF
LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPING SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ADVERSE AVIATION
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD ACROSS CENTRAL NC SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY DUE TO LOW CLOUDS AND WIDESPREAD RAIN.

WARMER AIR WILL MAKE A RETURN SUNDAY AND MAINTAIN A THREAT OF
SCATTERED CONVECTION ALONG WITH PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...CBL
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...WSS/JLB
AVIATION...WSS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
903 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

NCZ011-026>028-041>043-076>078-291115-
HALIFAX-FRANKLIN-NASH-EDGECOMBE-WAKE-JOHNSTON-WILSON-LEE-HARNETT-
WAYNE-
903 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 119 IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH
OF HIGHWAY 64. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE
MAIN THREATS FROM THESE STORMS. MINOR FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND
POOR DRAINAGE AREAS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NCZ007>010-021>025-038>040-073>075-083>086-088-089-291115-
PERSON-GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE-ORANGE-
DURHAM-DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-CHATHAM-STANLY-MONTGOMERY-MOORE-ANSON-
RICHMOND-SCOTLAND-HOKE-CUMBERLAND-SAMPSON-
903 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
840 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0630 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 WNW BETHEL HILL       36.51N  78.91W
04/28/2016                   PERSON             NC   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TREE DOWN 10400 BLOCK OF BOSTON RD

&&

EVENT NUMBER RAH1600562

RAH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
843 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0630 PM     HAIL             4 S ALAMANCE            35.98N 79.48W
04/28/2016  M1.50 INCH       ALAMANCE           NC   BROADCAST MEDIA

            MEDIA RELAY REPORT OF 1.5 TO 2.5 INCH HAIL.

&&

NP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
844 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0553 PM     HAIL             4 NNE RALEIGH           35.85N  78.60W
04/28/2016  M0.50 INCH       WAKE               NC   TRAINED SPOTTER

            NEAR INTERSECTION OF OLD WAKE FOREST ROAD AND FOREST
            OAKS ROAD

&&

EVENT NUMBER RAH1600563

RAH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
849 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0605 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 E ROLESVILLE          35.92N 78.40W
04/28/2016                   WAKE               NC   PUBLIC

            NUMEROUS LARGE TREES DOWN AND 1/2 DOLLAR
            SIZE HAIL.

&&

NP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
859 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0635 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 SSE EMIT              35.66N 78.23W
04/28/2016                   JOHNSTON           NC   UTILITY COMPANY

            TREES DOWN AND RESULTING POWER OUTAGES.

&&

NP

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
922 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

NCZ011-027-028-042-043-077-078-086-088-089-290215-
JOHNSTON   NC-CUMBERLAND   NC-HALIFAX   NC-NASH   NC-HOKE   NC-
WILSON   NC-EDGECOMBE   NC-WAYNE   NC-HARNETT   NC-SAMPSON   NC-
922 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

...A LINE OF SHOWERS AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT PORTIONS
OF THE COASTAL PLAIN AND SANDHILLS INCLUDING JOHNSTON...
CUMBERLAND...SOUTHEASTERN HALIFAX...SOUTHERN NASH... EASTERN
HOKE...WILSON...EDGECOMBE...WAYNE...SOUTHEASTERN HARNETT AND SAMPSON
COUNTIES UNTIL 1015 PM EDT...

AT 920 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR TARBORO TO 8
MILES WEST OF GODWIN. MOVEMENT WAS SOUTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS... ALONG WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS MAKING DRIVING
TREACHEROUS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
FAYETTEVILLE...ROCKY MOUNT...GOLDSBORO...TARBORO...SMITHFIELD...CLINTON...
NASHVILLE...RAEFORD...FORT BRAGG AND WILSON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL QUICKLY REDUCE VISIBILITY AND RESULT IN
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS. DRIVERS ARE URGED TO SLOW DOWN AND USE
EXTRA CAUTION TO AVOID HYDROPLANING.

&&

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM EDT FOR
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

LAT...LON 3485 7850 3483 7890 3495 7903 3489 7912
      3502 7933 3621 7759 3610 7723 3600 7741
      3590 7734 3582 7735 3580 7747 3557 7782
      3518 7783 3515 7789 3519 7802 3519 7816
      3490 7815 3474 7820 3471 7811 3455 7825
TIME...MOT...LOC 0120Z 308DEG 32KT 3589 7766 3518 7882

GIH