Severe Thunderstorm Warning 210, NWS Raleigh, NC

795 
WWUS52 KRAH 152055
SVSRAH

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
455 PM EDT FRI JUL 15 2016

NCC037-063-135-183-152130-
/O.CON.KRAH.SV.W.0210.000000T0000Z-160715T2130Z/
CHATHAM NC-ORANGE NC-WAKE NC-DURHAM NC-
455 PM EDT FRI JUL 15 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 530 PM EDT
FOR NORTHEASTERN CHATHAM...SOUTHEASTERN ORANGE...NORTHWESTERN WAKE
AND DURHAM COUNTIES...

AT 454 PM EDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR CARRBORO...OR
NEAR CHAPEL HILL...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...EXPECT DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...AND TREES. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
RALEIGH...DURHAM...CARY...CHAPEL HILL...PITTSBORO...CARRBORO...RDU
INTERNATIONAL...MORRISVILLE...FALLS LAKE STATE REC AREA AND BETHESDA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

STRAIGHT LINE WINDS CAN BLOW DOWN TREES...POWER LINES...AND DAMAGE
MOBILE HOMES AND OTHER BUILDINGS. SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE
UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AS FLYING DEBRIS
GENERATED BY DAMAGING WINDS CAN BE DEADLY.

CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
MOVE INDOORS IMMEDIATELY. LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURE'S LEADING
KILLERS. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO
BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

&&

LAT...LON 3608 7870 3603 7857 3583 7870 3571 7922
      3584 7926 3585 7924 3586 7925 3591 7922
      3605 7895 3607 7882 3607 7878
TIME...MOT...LOC 2054Z 257DEG 18KT 3584 7904 

HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

77

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
336 PM EDT FRI JUL 15 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A Piedmont trough will extend across central NC through tonight.
A cold front will approach the region tonight and then stall across
the area late in the weekend into early next week, bringing cooler
and unsettled conditions.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
As of 245 PM Friday...

Surface analysis from 18Z shows a well defined Piedmont trough in
the surface dew point, wind, and pressure field that extends from
near Richmond south to just west of Raleigh to near Charlotte.
The upper air pattern features a broad low amplitude trough at 500
hPa across the OH/TN valleys with a vorticity axis that extends
from WV to northwest GA. Surface dew points behind the surface
trough have mixed into the lower to mid 60s across the Northwest
Piedmont, note a TD of 62 at KINT, 63 at KGSO and 66 at KTDF.
Ahead of the trough TDs remain in the lower to mid 70s, note a
dew point of 75 at KETC, KRWI, and KIGX, 76 at KCTZ and 79 at
KGSB. The air mass across central NC near and east of the trough
has become moderately unstable with MLCAPE values ranging from
2000 to 3000 J/Kg with a weakly unstable air mass in the Northwest
Piedmont with MLCAPE values of 1000-1500 J/Kg. Temperatures are
reaching the convective temperatures as they climb into the lower
to mid 90s and cumulus is beginning to develop, especially near
the Piedmont trough.

Convection allowing models are handling the storm development well
this afternoon. They have focused convective development early
this afternoon near and ahead of the Piedmont trough across the
Southern Piedmont and Sandhills northward toward the Triangle
area with the storms moving northeast at 15-20kts. Another area
of convection is likely to develop across the higher terrain of
the southern Appalachians resulting from differential heating, the
proximity of the vort axis, and perhaps the influence of remnant
MCVs across AL/GA. This second area should also push east and
northeast across much of central NC late this afternoon and
evening.

Central NC is highlighted in an SPC marginal risk for today. Bulk
shear values range from 20-25 knots near the Triad/VA border to
around 15 kts near the SC border. Mid level lapse rates have
steepened slightly but are generally rather modest while the FZL
ranges around 13kft. Given the moderate instability, a localized
downbursts or two is possible and if cells can organize into
clusters, a more pronounced wind threat is possible.

Convective coverage should diminish this evening with the loss of
heating but given the approaching trough aloft, wouldn't be
surprised to see a few cells pop overnight given the increasing
forcing for ascent. While coverage will decrease, will include at
least a slight chance overnight. Lows will range in the low to
mid 70s. -blaes

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 330 PM Friday...

The 500 hPa trough axis moves east toward the southern
Appalachians Saturday morning and then reaches the coast by Sunday
morning. The associated cold front will drop through VA and into
northern NC. Given the moist and unstable air mass across the area
and the forcing for ascent, high chance PoPs remain warranted. The
best coverage will likely transition from northwest to southeast
during the Saturday and Saturday night period. Low level thickness
values drop 10 to 15m on Saturday compared to today which combined
with a fair amount of cloudiness will result in cooler high
temperatures in the 87 to 92 range. Overnight lows will remain in
the lower to mid 70s. -Blaes &&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 200 PM Friday...

Low amplitude upper troffing lingers across the east coast, ensuring
unsettled weather through the extended period. Little airmass change
day to day, so highs will be seasonable, upper 80s to lower 90s,
through the period after morning lows 70 to 75. The upper flow will
be predominantly northwest, with the most tangible periods for
stronger and more widespread convection (>40 percent) concurrent
with frontal passages tentatively scheduled early Sunday and
Tuesday. Drying behind the initial front will commence in the
northwest fairly early Sunday, with most of Sunday through Monday
precip-free outside of the far southeast which could see some
increased activity due to proximity of the front which will be
stalled near the coast. Another round of fairly widespread
convective activity is expected from Tuesday afternoon through
Tuesday night associated with the second front. The remainder of the
extended from Wednesday through Friday will feature diminishing
chances of convection as upper ridging in the Midwest
amplifies northeast into the mid Atlantic.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 245 PM Friday...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop this afternoon
and evening move northeast across central NC. A round or two of
convection is possible with the initial storms likely to impact
the KFAY terminal from 19 to 21Z first and possibly KRDU and KRWI
terminals between 20 and 23Z. Another area of convection
developing across the Mountains will likely push east reaching the
KINT and KGSO terminals between 21 and 01Z and possibly the
eastern terminals near or after 00Z. VFR conditions are expected
outside of convection through the TAF period although some
guidance suggest a period of MVFR/IFR stratus is possible late
tonight, mainly in the central and eastern TAF locations.

Long Term: The combination of a persistent upper level trough
will remain across the Northeast and Mid Atlantic and a stalled
frontal system will result in a period of active, mainly diurnal
convection. The greatest threat for adverse aviation conditions
will be across the southern and eastern half of the CWA. Fog and
low stratus is possible each morning, especially in areas with
convection.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...BLAES
NEAR TERM...BLAES
SHORT TERM...BLAES
LONG TERM...MLM
AVIATION...BLAES

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
401 PM EDT FRI JUL 15 2016

NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089-162015-
PERSON-GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-HALIFAX-FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE-
ORANGE-DURHAM-FRANKLIN-NASH-EDGECOMBE-DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-CHATHAM-WAKE-
JOHNSTON-WILSON-STANLY-MONTGOMERY-MOORE-LEE-HARNETT-WAYNE-ANSON-
RICHMOND-SCOTLAND-HOKE-CUMBERLAND-SAMPSON-
401 PM EDT FRI JUL 15 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE FROM DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AND EXCESSIVE DEADLY LIGHTNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
247 PM EDT FRI JUL 15 2016

NCZ073-074-151945-
STANLY   NC-MONTGOMERY   NC-
247 PM EDT FRI JUL 15 2016

 ...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN STANLY
AND MONTGOMERY COUNTIES UNTIL 345 PM EDT...

AT 246 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
TROY...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
TROY...BADIN LAKE...BISCOE...BADIN...MOUNT GILEAD...STAR...CANDOR...
NORMAN...FISH TALES MARINA AND MORROW MOUNTAIN STATE PARK.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL QUICKLY REDUCE VISIBILITY AND RESULT IN
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS. DRIVERS ARE URGED TO SLOW DOWN AND USE
EXTRA CAUTION TO AVOID HYDROPLANING.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3551 7977 3531 7971 3528 7971 3525 7970
      3524 7967 3519 7966 3516 7962 3516 7964
      3518 7968 3517 7976 3518 7985 3516 7990
      3516 7998 3514 8002 3514 8007 3518 8005
      3522 8007 3524 8010 3550 8019
TIME...MOT...LOC 1846Z 276DEG 12KT 3536 7995

10

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
312 PM EDT FRI JUL 15 2016

NCZ074-152000-
MONTGOMERY   NC-
312 PM EDT FRI JUL 15 2016

 ...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MONTGOMERY
COUNTY UNTIL 400 PM EDT...

AT 310 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
JUST WEST OF TROY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM AS WELL AS
VERY HEAVY RAIN.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
TROY...BISCOE...STAR AND STEEDS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL REDUCE VISIBILITY AND RESULT IN PONDING OF
WATER ON ROADWAYS. DRIVERS ARE URGED TO SLOW DOWN AND USE EXTRA
CAUTION TO AVOID HYDROPLANING.

&&

LAT...LON 3551 7989 3551 7977 3539 7974 3527 8001
      3536 8006 3537 8005 3541 8008
TIME...MOT...LOC 1910Z 239DEG 22KT 3540 7991

13

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
341 PM EDT FRI JUL 15 2016

NCZ077-086-088-152015-
CUMBERLAND   NC-HOKE   NC-HARNETT   NC-
341 PM EDT FRI JUL 15 2016

 ...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF WESTERN
CUMBERLAND...EASTERN HOKE AND SOUTHWESTERN HARNETT COUNTIES UNTIL 415
PM EDT...

AT 341 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR POPE AFB TO NEAR FORT
BRAGG TO 6 MILES NORTH OF REX. MOVEMENT WAS NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

HEAVY RAIN AND DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
FAYETTEVILLE...FORT BRAGG...POPE AFB...HOPE MILLS...SPRING LAKE...
ROCKFISH...BONNIE DOONE...ANDERSON CREEK AND TIMBERLAKE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEEK SHELTER IN A NEARBY BUILDING OR VEHICLE. WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS
50 MPH ARE CAPABLE OF KNOCKING DOWN SMALL OR WEAKENED TREES AND
BLOWING AROUND TRASH CANS...POTTED PLANTS...LAWN FURNITURE AND OTHER
LIGHT OUTDOOR OBJECTS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3487 7892 3492 7896 3495 7903 3490 7911
      3491 7920 3506 7919 3518 7915 3517 7914
      3518 7913 3517 7913 3517 7910 3519 7910
      3521 7914 3525 7913 3531 7891 3535 7881
      3487 7890
TIME...MOT...LOC 1941Z 238DEG 25KT 3520 7892 3511 7899 3495 7908

77

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
357 PM EDT FRI JUL 15 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0338 PM     TSTM WND GST     POPE AFB                35.17N 79.01W
07/15/2016  M61 MPH          CUMBERLAND         NC   PUBLIC

            53 KNOT WIND GUST OBSERVED AT POPE ARMY
            FIELD. .

&&

NWS RALEIGH NC
IRIS SYSTEM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
424 PM EDT FRI JUL 15 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0345 PM     HAIL             2 SSW ERWIN             35.30N 78.68W
07/15/2016  E1.00 INCH       HARNETT            NC   PUBLIC

            NICKEL TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL. TIME ESTIMATED
            BY RADAR. .

&&

NWS RALEIGH NC
IRIS SYSTEM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
430 PM EDT FRI JUL 15 2016

NCZ024-025-040-152115-
DURHAM   NC-ORANGE   NC-CHATHAM   NC-
430 PM EDT FRI JUL 15 2016

 ...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF DURHAM...
SOUTHERN ORANGE AND NORTHEASTERN CHATHAM COUNTIES UNTIL 515 PM EDT...

AT 429 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR CARRBORO TO NEAR
PITTSBORO. MOVEMENT WAS NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS.

HEAVY RAIN AND DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
DURHAM...CHAPEL HILL...CARRBORO...BETHESDA...GORMAN...JORDAN LAKE...
PARKWOOD...CANE CREEK RESERVOIR...FEARRINGTON AND BYNUM.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEEK SHELTER IN A NEARBY BUILDING OR VEHICLE. WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS
50 MPH ARE CAPABLE OF KNOCKING DOWN SMALL OR WEAKENED TREES AND
BLOWING AROUND TRASH CANS...POTTED PLANTS...LAWN FURNITURE AND OTHER
LIGHT OUTDOOR OBJECTS.

&&

LAT...LON 3609 7881 3609 7879 3607 7878 3607 7875
      3603 7875 3602 7874 3603 7872 3601 7870
      3596 7872 3592 7876 3593 7880 3587 7883
      3587 7891 3579 7893 3572 7925 3584 7925
      3585 7924 3586 7925 3601 7924 3613 7881
TIME...MOT...LOC 2029Z 237DEG 16KT 3595 7916 3578 7919

77