Severe Thunderstorm Warning 130, NWS Raleigh, NC

144 
WWUS52 KRAH 240050
SVSRAH

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
850 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2016

NCC077-183-240059-
/O.CAN.KRAH.SV.W.0130.000000T0000Z-160624T0115Z/
GRANVILLE NC-WAKE NC-
850 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2016

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN GRANVILLE AND
NORTHEASTERN WAKE COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...
    
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF
WAKE COUNTY.  THEREFORE THE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM EDT FOR
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

LAT...LON 3584 7785 3584 7790 3573 7819 3573 7821
      3587 7828 3590 7831 3590 7833 3591 7835
      3593 7835 3594 7838 3615 7821 3610 7772
TIME...MOT...LOC 0049Z 297DEG 20KT 3592 7814 

$$

NCC069-127-240115-
/O.CON.KRAH.SV.W.0130.000000T0000Z-160624T0115Z/
FRANKLIN NC-NASH NC-
850 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 915 PM EDT
FOR CENTRAL FRANKLIN AND NASH COUNTIES...

AT 849 PM EDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR BUNN...OR 10
MILES WEST OF NASHVILLE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

HAZARD...PING PONG BALL SIZE HAIL AND 60 MPH WIND GUSTS. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...PEOPLE AND ANIMALS OUTDOORS WILL BE INJURED. EXPECT HAIL
         DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...WINDOWS...AND VEHICLES. EXPECT
         WIND DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...AND TREES. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ROCKY MOUNT...NASHVILLE...DORTCHES...BAILEY...BUNN...RED OAK...
SHARPSBURG...SPRING HOPE...MIDDLESEX AND CASTALIA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. PEOPLE OUTSIDE
SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING AND AWAY FROM
WINDOWS.

CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
MOVE INDOORS IMMEDIATELY. LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURE'S LEADING
KILLERS. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO
BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

&&

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM EDT FOR
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

LAT...LON 3584 7785 3584 7790 3573 7819 3573 7821
      3587 7828 3590 7831 3590 7833 3591 7835
      3593 7835 3594 7838 3615 7821 3610 7772
TIME...MOT...LOC 0049Z 297DEG 20KT 3592 7814 

HAIL...1.50IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

77

553 
WWUS52 KRAH 240101
SVSRAH

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
901 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2016

NCC069-240111-
/O.CAN.KRAH.SV.W.0130.000000T0000Z-160624T0115Z/
FRANKLIN NC-
901 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2016

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR CENTRAL FRANKLIN COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...
    
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF
THE WARNED AREA. THEREFORE THE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM EDT FOR
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

LAT...LON 3584 7785 3584 7790 3573 7819 3573 7821
      3581 7825 3605 7807 3608 7800 3612 7791
      3610 7772
TIME...MOT...LOC 0101Z 288DEG 32KT 3587 7801 

$$

NCC127-240115-
/O.CON.KRAH.SV.W.0130.000000T0000Z-160624T0115Z/
NASH NC-
901 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 915 PM EDT
FOR NASH COUNTY...

AT 901 PM EDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 7 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF NASHVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO 
         ROOFS...SIDING...AND TREES. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ROCKY MOUNT...NASHVILLE...DORTCHES...BAILEY...RED OAK...SHARPSBURG...
SPRING HOPE...MIDDLESEX...TAR RIVER RESERVOIR AND BATTLEBORO.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
MOVE INDOORS IMMEDIATELY. LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURE'S LEADING
KILLERS. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO
BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

HEAVY RAINFALL IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD TO FLASH
FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.

&&

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM EDT FOR
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

LAT...LON 3584 7785 3584 7790 3573 7819 3573 7821
      3581 7825 3605 7807 3608 7800 3612 7791
      3610 7772
TIME...MOT...LOC 0101Z 288DEG 32KT 3587 7801 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

77

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
727 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
An active northwest flow aloft will prevail over the
Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic through Friday night. Dry conditions will
return later this weekend as an upper level ridge builds northeast
along the Appalachians, however, a more active pattern will return
early next week as the ridge weakens and NW flow aloft becomes
established over the region again.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 100 PM Thursday...

A 1009 mb surface low over the OH valley will weaken and track SE
toward diffluent flow aloft along the Mid-Atlantic/Carolinas today
as parent shortwave energy rapidly outpaces the surface low and
tracks rapidly E/ENE across New England toward the Canadian
Maritimes. An associated cold front, previously expected to progress
southward into central NC tonight, has become increasingly difficult
to locate this afternoon, having been washed out or masked by a
train of MCS activity progressing E/ESE across the Virginias.
Broken/overcast cloud cover and shower activity north of the hwy 64
corridor this morning through early afternoon are associate with the
aforementioned MCS activity. As a result, expect a N-S gradient of
high temps this afternoon, ranging from near ~80F near the VA border
in the NE coastal plain to ~90F Triad/Raleigh, to mid/upper 90s near
the SC border. Instability will also vary greatly across central NC,
from strong ~3000 MLCAPE in the West/SW piedmont to Moderate/capped
1000 MLCAPE in the central and NE coastal plain. With time, expect
strong destabilization, driven by rich low-level moisture advection
beneath a modified elevated mixed layer, to spread from the W/SW
Piedmont toward the Triangle and Coastal Plain late this aft/eve.

The train of MCS activity currently tracking through the Virginias
has altered airmass destabilization over central NC, and has likely
altered/modified the cold front progressing south of the Mason-Dixon
line this afternoon. Given that the forecast was complicated to
begin with, confidence is very low with regard to the evolution/
coverage/location of convection this afternoon through tonight.
Current thinking is that, *should activity develop*, it will most
likely be in vicinity of a differential heating boundary in the NW
Piedmont during the mid/late afternoon (peak heating). Initial
development will rapidly become supercells (splitters most likely)
given strong instability and 35-45 kt deep layer shear. Cyclonic
(right) movers will exhibit a motion from ~300 degrees at ~20 kt,
while anticyclonic (left) movers will exhibit a motion from ~260
degrees at 35 kt. As a result, such activity will tend to propagate
E/SE toward the Sandhills, where upscale growth along outflow will
likely ensue given steep low-level lapse rates and DCAPE values of
1000-1200 J/kg south of Hwy 64. If small amplitude disturbances
/DPVA/ cross the region in NW flow aloft this evening/tonight,
additional development could occur across the western Piedmont (or
anywhere else in central NC). With the above in mind, a conditional
potential for isolated severe thunderstorms will certainly be
present, with a primary threat of large (quarter to golfball size)
hail and damaging straight line winds. -Vincent

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 330 PM Thursday...

Forecast confidence for Fri/Fri night has actually decreased over
the past 24 hours. A train of MCSs propagating SE/ESE through the
Virginias early this morning through the middle of this afternoon
(i.e. currently) has significantly altered the mesoscale pattern
(low-level height/wind fields) over the Mid-Atlantic, including
washing out or completely masking the backdoor cold front previously
expected to track southward through VA into northern portions of
central NC late tonight. As a result, model guidance no longer
indicates a cooler airmass advecting into the region from the north
on Friday. Instead, guidance suggests that the 1010 mb sfc low
currently in OH will transition SE into central VA/northern NC
Friday afternoon as DPVA attendant shortwave energy progressing
eastward through the Mid-Atlantic tracks in close vicinity to an
'effective' frontal zone, one which separates a cloudy/rain cooled
airmass (assoc/w persistent convection/MCS remnants in VA) from a
hot/unstable airmass assoc/w strong insolation to the south in NC.
This low is expected to gradually transition to the NC coast Fri
night as northerly flow develops across VA/DELMARVA (in response to
surface pressure rises /subsidence/ over New England and the
northern Mid-Atlantic), pushing the frontal zone S/SE through
central NC Fri night.

Guidance suggests thermodynamic conditions Fri afternoon will be
similar to today, i.e. strong insolation, rich low-level moisture
and a modified elevated mixed layer contributing to strong diurnal
destabilization. Expect convection to develop during the mid/late
afternoon as low-level convergences increases in vicinity of the sfc
low and (later) along the S/SE advancing frontal zone Fri eve/night.
Given effective bulk shear values supportive of supercells, expect a
potential for isolated severe storms capable of producing large hail
and damaging winds. -Vincent

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 400 PM Thursday...

Little change in overall forecast rationale through the medium
range. Ridging at the surface and aloft will build across the
Middle Atlantic states this weekend, with associated cooler and
mainly dry conditions. The exception will be on Sat, as the cold
front forecast to cross central NC Fri night settles through the
Coastal Plain, with an associated lingering chance of showers.
Broken to overcast low clouds in NE low level flow are also likely
to expand SWD throughout the CWFA during the morning-midday hours
Sat, and probably linger into at least the first half of the
afternoon east of I-95. Temperatures should accordingly remain at
or below guidance values over the far NE Piedmont and Coastal
Plain, with highs ranging from near 90 SW to around 80 or so NE.
Low clouds will be shunted progressively further SWWD through
early Sunday, with subsequent mostly sunny and warmer conditions,
and highs in the middle 80s to lower 90s, on Sunday.

A mid to upper-level trough is forecast to become re-established over
the ERN U.S early to mid next week, with an associated wavy
frontal zone at the surface --and associated above average
chances of showers and storms-- expected to waver across the
Middle Atlantic states. Any relatively lower probability of
convection will likely be late Tue night-Wed, when the models
indicate the frontal zone is most likely to drift south of central
NC, albeit only briefly.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Friday through Wednesday/...
As of 727 PM Thursday...

24-Hour TAF period: Additional showers and thunderstorms are still
expected this evening into tonight at all terminals. The best
overall potential for convection (and perhaps an isolated severe
storm) will occur at RDU/RWI terminals between 00Z and 03Z tonight
and at KINT/KGSO/KFAY between 03Z and 06Z. Otherwise, expect VFR
conditions to prevail through the remainder of the TAF period. -KC

Looking ahead: Sub-VFR conditions associated with showers/storms
will remain possible Fri/Fri night. Drier /VFR/ conditions will
prevail over the weekend as an upper level ridge builds over the
Appalachians. A more active pattern of NW flow aloft will return
early next week. -Vincent

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...VINCENT
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...KC/VINCENT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
355 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2016

NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-075>078-088-089-242000-
PERSON-GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-HALIFAX-FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE-
ORANGE-DURHAM-FRANKLIN-NASH-EDGECOMBE-DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-CHATHAM-WAKE-
JOHNSTON-WILSON-MOORE-LEE-HARNETT-WAYNE-CUMBERLAND-SAMPSON-
355 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2016

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 291 IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 291.

NCZ073-074-083>086-242000-
STANLY-MONTGOMERY-ANSON-RICHMOND-SCOTLAND-HOKE-
355 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
732 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0724 PM     HAIL             3 NNW BETHEL HILL       36.54N 78.90W
06/23/2016  E2.50 INCH       PERSON             NC   PUBLIC

            REPORT ON U.S. ROUTE 501 JUST SOUTH OF VA
            STATE LINE. .

&&

NWS RALEIGH NC
IRIS SYSTEM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
807 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0725 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 W MIDDLEBURG          36.40N 78.34W
06/23/2016                   VANCE              NC   911 CALL CENTER

            TREE DOWN ON I-85 NEAR EXIT 220. .

&&

NWS RALEIGH NC
IRIS SYSTEM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
811 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0625 PM     HAIL             4 WNW BYNUM             35.80N 79.21W
06/23/2016  E1.00 INCH       CHATHAM            NC   PUBLIC

            .

&&

NWS RALEIGH NC
IRIS SYSTEM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
820 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0740 PM     HAIL             AFTON                   36.33N 78.22W
06/23/2016  E1.50 INCH       WARREN             NC   PUBLIC

            .

&&

NWS RALEIGH NC
IRIS SYSTEM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
822 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0750 PM     HAIL             5 SE WARRENTON          36.35N 78.09W
06/23/2016  U1.00 INCH       WARREN             NC   PUBLIC

            .

&&

NWS RALEIGH NC
IRIS SYSTEM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
829 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2016

NCZ024-025-240115-
DURHAM   NC-ORANGE   NC-
829 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2016

 ...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN DURHAM
AND CENTRAL ORANGE COUNTIES UNTIL 915 PM EDT...

AT 829 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
HILLSBOROUGH...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

HEAVY RAIN AND DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
DURHAM...CHAPEL HILL...HILLSBOROUGH...CARRBORO...BETHESDA...SCHLEY...
ENO RIVER STATE PARK...GORMAN...EFLAND AND PARKWOOD.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEEK SHELTER IN A NEARBY BUILDING OR VEHICLE. WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS
50 MPH ARE CAPABLE OF KNOCKING DOWN SMALL OR WEAKENED TREES AND
BLOWING AROUND TRASH CANS...POTTED PLANTS...LAWN FURNITURE AND OTHER
LIGHT OUTDOOR OBJECTS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM EDT FOR
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

LAT...LON 3611 7881 3609 7881 3608 7880 3587 7884
      3596 7926 3615 7925 3617 7904
TIME...MOT...LOC 0029Z 270DEG 19KT 3607 7918

77