Special Weather Statement, NWS Pueblo, CO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
339 PM MDT THU JUL 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 338 PM MDT Thu Jul 28 2016

Currently...Upper high over the Great Basin persists, keeping light N-
NW flow aloft over the CWA. Outflow from storms in northeastern CO
and western KS this morning has pushed into the eastern plains,
reinforcing LLVL moisture for the I-25 corridor and plains. Temps
have risen into the 90s to around 100 F across the plains, into the
80s to near 90 F for the high valleys, and into the 70s for the mt
passes.

Tonight and Tomorrow...Little movement on the upper high expected
over the next 24 hrs, and there is not any definitive upper
shortwave to help kick off convective activity. What is present is a
good amount of llvl moisture thanks to the storm outflow earlier
today. This moisture along with abundant heating has sparked
thunderstorms across the eastern plains, and outflow from these
storms will initiate even more storms through the evening and into
the overnight hrs, with models indicating activity finally waning
between 09-12z. There is the indication that this moisture will also
help lower clouds to develop over portions of the eastern plains, so
included this in the aviation forecasts for COS and PUB.

After a relatively quiet morning, once cloud breaks develop and
heating commences, heating should act upon available moisture for
another round of isolated to scattered storms beginning after 18z.
Max temps tomorrow are expected to be slightly cooler for the high
valleys, but anywhere from 5-15 degrees cooler across the plains due
to a cool morning with a slower start to the heating. Moore

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 338 PM MDT Thu Jul 28 2016

.Saturday through Tuesday..A couple of troughs will move across
the northern Rockies during this period. The flow aloft will
become west to southwest with a lee trough developing over the
plains. The lee trough will keep the very moist low level air
mostly to the east of Colorado. Plenty of convection developed
last night over the Sierra Madre with one easterly wave. Satellite
shows other easterly waves moving into northern Mexico which will
continue development of deep convection over northern Mexico.
Southwest flow should be able to tap this deep moisture and advect
it into Colorado. Anticipate moisture increasing on Sunday as
first shortwave moves to our north and southwest flow ahead of
another shortwave moving across the northern Rockies will maintain
the monsoon plume through Tuesday. With the best lower level
moisture remaining to the east of Colorado, highest PoPs and
heaviest rainfall will stay over and near the mountains.

.Wednesday and Thursday...As the trough passes to the north of
Colorado, a surface cold front could move south into eastern
Colorado. The upslope flow behind the front could increase the low
level moisture on the plains with a greater potential for
convection. With monsoon plume remaining over Colorado and an
increase in moisture on the plains, will have to watch for
increased threat of heavy rains. --PGW--

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 338 PM MDT Thu Jul 28 2016

KALS: VFR conditions over the next 24 hrs. Isolated storms over the
higher terrain surrounding the site through 03z, but too
low of a probability to include in the TAF.

KCOS and KPUB: Brisk outflow has moved across KCOS and KPUB, with
gusts of 25-30 kts.  KCOS has a better chance for convection
associated with the front, lasting through the evening. Stronger
storms, possibly severe, are expected further east closer to KS with
60 mph wind gusts and large hail the expected threats. LLVL moisture
pushing towards the southern Front Range this evening will likely
produce MVFR cloud deck for much of the I-25 corridor after 09-10z.
After a relatively quiet morning, isolated to scattered storms are
expected to develop once again along the I-25 corridor affected KCOS
and KPUb after 18z. Moore

&&

.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...PGW
AVIATION...MOORE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1116 AM MDT THU JUL 28 2016

COZ058>089-093>099-291300-
WESTERN MOSQUITO RANGE/EAST LAKE COUNTY ABOVE 11000 FT-
LEADVILLE VICINITY/LAKE COUNTY BELOW 11000 FT-
EASTERN SAWATCH MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FT-
WESTERN CHAFFEE COUNTY BETWEEN 9000 AND 11000 FT-
CENTRAL CHAFFEE COUNTY BELOW 9000 FT-
WESTERN MOSQUITO RANGE/EAST CHAFFEE COUNTY ABOVE 9000FT-
SAGUACHE COUNTY WEST OF CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BELOW 10000 FT-
SAGUACHE COUNTY EAST OF CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BELOW 10000 FT-
LA GARITA MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY/EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS BELOW 10000 FT-
EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
DEL NORTE VICINITY/NORTHERN SAN LUIS VALLEY BELOW 8500 FT-
ALAMOSA  VICINITY/CENTRAL SAN LUIS VALLEY BELOW 8500 FT-
SOUTHERN SAN LUIS VALLEY-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 8500 AND 11000 FT-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FT-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 7500 AND 11000 FT-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FT-
NORTHWESTERN FREMONT COUNTY  ABOVE 8500FT-
WESTERN/CENTRAL FREMONT COUNTY BELOW 8500 FT-
WET MOUNTAIN VALLEY BELOW 8500 FT-
WET MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 6300 AND 10000FT-
WET MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
TELLER COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE ABOVE 7500FT/PIKE'S PEAK BETWEEN
7500 AND 11000 FT-PIKES PEAK ABOVE 11000 FT-
CANON CITY VICINITY/EASTERN FREMONT COUNTY-
NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/MONUMENT RIDGE/RAMPART RANGE BELOW
7500 FT-
COLORADO SPRINGS VICINITY/SOUTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE
BELOW 7400 FT-PUEBLO VICINITY/PUEBLO COUNTY BELOW 6300 FEET-
WALSENBURG VICINITY/UPPER HUERFANO RIVER BASIN BELOW 7500 FT-
TRINIDAD VICINITY/WESTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY BELOW 7500 FT-
CROWLEY COUNTY-LA JUNTA VICINITY/OTERO COUNTY-
EASTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY-WESTERN KIOWA COUNTY-
EASTERN KIOWA COUNTY-LAS ANIMAS VICINITY/BENT COUNTY-
LAMAR VICINITY/PROWERS COUNTY-SPRINGFIELD VICINITY/BACA COUNTY-
1116 AM MDT THU JUL 28 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL...EAST
CENTRAL...SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  A WEATHER DISTURBANCE AND A FRONT WILL
AFFECT THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE LATE
NIGHT HOURS, BRINGING THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. THE MAIN STORM
THREATS TODAY WILL BE LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH.
HOWEVER, OVER THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT, THERE WILL ALSO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS, WITH HAIL AROUND THE SIZE OF PING PONG BALLS AND
WIND GUSTS AROUND 60 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA EACH DAY. THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST PLAINS. THE BEST
COVERAGE OF STORMS ON FRIDAY WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS
AND PLAINS, WITH THE BEST COVERAGE OF STORMS SWITCHING TO OVER AND
NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE MAIN THREATS FROM STORMS WILL BE LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS UP TO 45
MPH...SMALL HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. SOME OF THE STRONGER
STORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY COULD
BECOME SEVERE, PRODUCING HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS AND WIND
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL COULD CAUSE FLASH
FLOODING CONCERNS...ESPECIALLY IF THEY OCCUR OVER URBAN AREAS OR
BURN SCARS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER CONDITIONS THAT MEET REPORTING CRITERIA FOR SPOTTERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT OVER THE SOUTHEAST
PLAINS.

27/06

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
632 PM MDT THU JUL 28 2016

COZ085-086-089-290115-
CROWLEY COUNTY CO-PUEBLO VICINITY/PUEBLO COUNTY BELOW 6300 FEET CO-
COLORADO SPRINGS VICINITY/SOUTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE BELOW
7400 FT CO-
632 PM MDT THU JUL 28 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN EL PASO...
NORTHEASTERN PUEBLO AND NORTHWESTERN CROWLEY COUNTIES UNTIL 715 PM
MDT...

AT 631 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 9
MILES SOUTHEAST OF HANOVER...OR 27 MILES NORTHEAST OF PUEBLO...MOVING
EAST AT 25 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

THIS STORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF SOUTHEASTERN EL
PASO...NORTHEASTERN PUEBLO AND NORTHWESTERN CROWLEY COUNTIES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3863 10405 3852 10405 3852 10380 3823 10397
      3851 10447 3868 10437
TIME...MOT...LOC 0031Z 288DEG 21KT 3856 10427

KAM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
635 PM MDT THU JUL 28 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0634 PM     HAIL             3 WNW SECURITY          38.76N 104.77W
07/28/2016  U1.50 INCH       EL PASO            CO   AMATEUR RADIO

            .

&&

RMG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
643 PM MDT THU JUL 28 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0615 PM     HAIL             4 S COLORADO SPRINGS    38.77N 104.81W
07/28/2016  M1.50 INCH       EL PASO            CO   BROADCAST MEDIA

            .

&&

NWS PUEBLO CO
IRIS SYSTEM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
644 PM MDT THU JUL 28 2016

COZ089-095-290130-
CROWLEY COUNTY CO-WESTERN KIOWA COUNTY CO-
644 PM MDT THU JUL 28 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN KIOWA AND
NORTHEASTERN CROWLEY COUNTIES UNTIL 730 PM MDT...

AT 644 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 9
MILES SOUTH OF FORDER...OR 40 MILES NORTH OF LA JUNTA...MOVING EAST
AT 20 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

THIS STORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF SOUTHWESTERN KIOWA
AND NORTHEASTERN CROWLEY COUNTIES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3854 10314 3828 10341 3852 10396 3852 10351
      3853 10350 3853 10317 3854 10317
TIME...MOT...LOC 0044Z 290DEG 16KT 3855 10375

KAM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
645 PM MDT THU JUL 28 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0643 PM     HAIL             1 NE SECURITY           38.75N 104.73W
07/28/2016  M1.75 INCH       EL PASO            CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            QUARTER TO GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL. .

&&

AL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
707 PM MDT THU JUL 28 2016

COZ086-089-093-290145-
CROWLEY COUNTY CO-LA JUNTA VICINITY/OTERO COUNTY CO-
PUEBLO VICINITY/PUEBLO COUNTY BELOW 6300 FEET CO-
707 PM MDT THU JUL 28 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WEST CENTRAL OTERO...EAST CENTRAL
PUEBLO AND SOUTHWESTERN CROWLEY COUNTIES UNTIL 745 PM MDT...

AT 707 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
BOONE...OR 18 MILES EAST OF PUEBLO...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
FOWLER...BOONE...PUEBLO DEPOT AND AVONDALE.

LAT...LON 3827 10444 3840 10416 3813 10392 3795 10406
TIME...MOT...LOC 0107Z 294DEG 18KT 3826 10428

KAM