Special Weather Statement, NWS Pueblo, CO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
326 PM MDT THU JUN 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 326 PM MDT Thu Jun 30 2016

Currently, frontal boundary lying across the far sern plains with a
few stronger cells developing along the front across Las Animas
county. Air mass to the north of the front has become very unstable,
with CAPE in the 1500-2000 j/kg range along and north of the
Arkansas River, though weak convection over Teller/El Paso counties
has produced a pool of more stable air which may limit strong storm
potential the next few hours. Mountains/interior valleys have seen
mainly isolated storms so far, with some brief heavy rain under the
stronger cells.

For this evening and overnight, expect convection over north central
colorado to expand and push southward into the eastern plains, with
strongest storms along the axis of instability which will lie
roughly from KDEN to KLIC to KLAA. Have hoisted a flash flood watch
for portions of the sern plains to account for this scenario, as
heaviest rain may fall over locations that saw moderate to heavy
rainfall last night. Area around Colorado Springs may be too stable
for deep convection to redevelop, though eastern El Paso county
could see some stronger storms drop se through the area later
tonight. Arkansas Valley from La Junta west through Pueblo still a
puzzle, as deep instability remains in place and HRRR has been
insisting all afternoon that convection will soon develop, but so
far strongest storms have stayed well south. Threat of severe storms
over the plains remains marginal with weak shear, though if large
enough MCS can form, there may be an increased threat of damaging
winds if deep cold pool develops. Mountains will see a continuation
of isolated to scattered storms, with convection going through the
night as moisture increases. Plains convection will taper off late
tonight as MCS shifts into KS, though won't end pops completely as
models keep at least isolated storms going through the night.

Convection will become widespread on Friday as upper trough
approaches from the west and slug of deeper moisture over AZ/NM
lifts northward. Over the plains, MCS outflow should shove frontal
boundary southward toward nrn NM, which will allow tongue of deeper
moisture and instability to push back westward across the plains
toward the I-25 corridor by afternoon. May need another flash flood
watch for portions of the area beginning Fri afternoon, but will
wait to see how overnight convection evolves before issuance.
Clouds/precip and upslope flow should keep max temps down another
day with all areas staying below 90f once again.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 326 PM MDT Thu Jun 30 2016

Friday night through Sunday...A very chaotic atmosphere remains in
place across the state this weekend, with a number of shortwaves
rippling across the forecast area through Sunday morning. This upper
level support, added to easterly upslope sfc winds and abundant llvl
moisture as evident by 55-60 F dewpoints, will keep the threat of
showers and thunderstorms in place through Sunday morning. More of a
concern will be the threat of over-saturated soils and flash
flooding for sloped areas during a near 48 hr window of precip
potential. Therefore, kept a mention of thunderstorms with moderate
rain through midnight Sat night, and depending on what occurs
tonight, might have to consider a flash flood watch for much of the
plains Sat aftn and eve as well. Extensive cloud cover and
convective activity will keep max temps in the 70s and 80s, with
overnight min temps in the upper 40s to around 60 F.

Monday through Thursday...The upper ridge of high pressure tries to
build back into the Desert SW, while an upper trough gathers
strength over British Columbia and the Pacific NW. This will provide
for warmer and more dry conditions through the work week, with max
temps climbing back up into the 90s to near 100 F for the plains,
and mid to upper 80s for the high valleys. Convection chances will
taper off, with a more typical isolated diurnal pattern settling in
for the mts. Moore

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 326 PM MDT Thu Jun 30 2016

Still a threat of tsra at all taf sites into the evening, before
strongest convection shifts east across the plains.  CIGS/VIS at taf
sites will stay predominantly VFR, though thunderstorms will produce
localized MVFR conditions with heavy rainfall and erratic gusty
winds up to 40 kts.  Overnight, low level winds will become more e-
se with widespread MVFR/local IFR cigs developing across most of the
southeast plains including KPUB and KCOS after 09z-10z, with only
gradual clearing 16z-18z. KALS will remain VFR overnight. Expect
widespread convection again Friday afternoon and evening, with
potential for stronger storms and area of IFR cigs and mountain
obscuration many areas after 18z-20z.

&&

.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for COZ089-095>098.

&&

SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...PETERSEN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1115 AM MDT THU JUN 30 2016

COZ058>089-093>099-011715-
WESTERN MOSQUITO RANGE/EAST LAKE COUNTY ABOVE 11000 FT-
LEADVILLE VICINITY/LAKE COUNTY BELOW 11000 FT-
EASTERN SAWATCH MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FT-
WESTERN CHAFFEE COUNTY BETWEEN 9000 AND 11000 FT-
CENTRAL CHAFFEE COUNTY BELOW 9000 FT-
WESTERN MOSQUITO RANGE/EAST CHAFFEE COUNTY ABOVE 9000FT-
SAGUACHE COUNTY WEST OF CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BELOW 10000 FT-
SAGUACHE COUNTY EAST OF CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BELOW 10000 FT-
LA GARITA MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY/EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS BELOW 10000 FT-
EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
DEL NORTE VICINITY/NORTHERN SAN LUIS VALLEY BELOW 8500 FT-
ALAMOSA  VICINITY/CENTRAL SAN LUIS VALLEY BELOW 8500 FT-
SOUTHERN SAN LUIS VALLEY-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 8500 AND 11000 FT-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FT-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 7500 AND 11000 FT-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FT-
NORTHWESTERN FREMONT COUNTY  ABOVE 8500FT-
WESTERN/CENTRAL FREMONT COUNTY BELOW 8500 FT-
WET MOUNTAIN VALLEY BELOW 8500 FT-
WET MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 6300 AND 10000FT-
WET MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
TELLER COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE ABOVE 7500FT/PIKE'S PEAK BETWEEN
7500 AND 11000 FT-PIKES PEAK ABOVE 11000 FT-
CANON CITY VICINITY/EASTERN FREMONT COUNTY-
NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/MONUMENT RIDGE/RAMPART RANGE BELOW
7500 FT-
COLORADO SPRINGS VICINITY/SOUTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE
BELOW 7400 FT-PUEBLO VICINITY/PUEBLO COUNTY BELOW 6300 FEET-
WALSENBURG VICINITY/UPPER HUERFANO RIVER BASIN BELOW 7500 FT-
TRINIDAD VICINITY/WESTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY BELOW 7500 FT-
CROWLEY COUNTY-LA JUNTA VICINITY/OTERO COUNTY-
EASTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY-WESTERN KIOWA COUNTY-
EASTERN KIOWA COUNTY-LAS ANIMAS VICINITY/BENT COUNTY-
LAMAR VICINITY/PROWERS COUNTY-SPRINGFIELD VICINITY/BACA COUNTY-
1115 AM MDT THU JUN 30 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL...EAST
CENTRAL...SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN SPREAD ACROSS THE PLAINS FROM MID AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING HOURS. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER
OVERNIGHT...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS. THE MAIN
THREATS WITH THUNDERSTORMS TODAY INCLUDE LIGHTNING...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH. SOME SMALL HAIL WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. AS
THUNDERSTORMS MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STORMS TO BECOME STRONG
TO SEVERE WITH WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH THE MAIN
THREAT...ALONG WITH HAIL UP TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL COULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODING FOR URBAN AREAS...BURN
SCARS...AND FOR AREAS WITH SATURATED SOIL CONDITIONS FROM RECENT
HEAVY RAINS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED EACH DAY WITH
THE GREATEST COVERAGE STORMS FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. SMALL
HAIL...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...WIND GUSTS AROUND 50 MPH AND
LIGHTNING WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS
PERIOD. IN ADDITION...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH
HAIL AROUND 1 INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS OVER 60 MPH. HEAVY
RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...AND FLASH
FLOODING MAY OCCUR ON AREA BURN SCARS AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHEAST PLAINS WHERE RAINFALL HAS BEEN HEAVIEST THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER CONDITIONS THAT MEET REPORTING CRITERIA FOR SPOTTERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO.

10/77

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
234 PM MDT THU JUN 30 2016

COZ094-099-302100-
EASTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY CO-SPRINGFIELD VICINITY/BACA COUNTY CO-
234 PM MDT THU JUN 30 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN LAS ANIMAS AND
SOUTHWESTERN BACA COUNTIES UNTIL 300 PM MDT...

AT 234 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 11
MILES SOUTHEAST OF KIM...OR 38 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
SPRINGFIELD...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

THIS STORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF SOUTHEASTERN LAS
ANIMAS AND SOUTHWESTERN BACA COUNTIES.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO
STATIONS AND AVAILABLE TELEVISION STATIONS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 3700 10326 3715 10337 3728 10305 3703 10300
TIME...MOT...LOC 2034Z 240DEG 38KT 3712 10323

TLM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
301 PM MDT THU JUN 30 2016

COZ094-099-302130-
EASTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY CO-SPRINGFIELD VICINITY/BACA COUNTY CO-
301 PM MDT THU JUN 30 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EAST CENTRAL LAS ANIMAS AND WEST
CENTRAL BACA COUNTIES UNTIL 330 PM MDT...

AT 301 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 12
MILES EAST OF KIM...OR 31 MILES SOUTHWEST OF SPRINGFIELD...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

THIS STORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF EAST CENTRAL LAS
ANIMAS AND WEST CENTRAL BACA COUNTIES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO
STATIONS AND AVAILABLE TELEVISION STATIONS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 3708 10315 3724 10326 3743 10292 3717 10279
TIME...MOT...LOC 2101Z 239DEG 36KT 3721 10313

TLM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
322 PM MDT THU JUN 30 2016

COZ088-302145-
TRINIDAD VICINITY/WESTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY BELOW 7500 FT CO-
322 PM MDT THU JUN 30 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL LAS ANIMAS COUNTY UNTIL
345 PM MDT...

AT 321 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 9
MILES NORTHEAST OF AGUILAR...OR 20 MILES NORTH OF TRINIDAD...MOVING
EAST AT 30 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
TYRONE.

LAT...LON 3736 10457 3754 10460 3758 10413 3735 10409
TIME...MOT...LOC 2121Z 264DEG 26KT 3746 10450

TLM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
403 PM MDT THU JUN 30 2016

COZ094-099-302245-
EASTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY CO-SPRINGFIELD VICINITY/BACA COUNTY CO-
403 PM MDT THU JUN 30 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EAST CENTRAL LAS ANIMAS AND
NORTHWESTERN BACA COUNTIES UNTIL 445 PM MDT...

AT 402 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A CLUSTER OF STRONG
STORMS ACROSS WESTERN BACA COUNTY...DRIFTING SLOWLY EAST AT
20 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
PRITCHETT AND OPEN COUNTRY OF WESTERN BACA COUNTY.

LAT...LON 3729 10314 3752 10321 3764 10281 3717 10266
TIME...MOT...LOC 2202Z 249DEG 34KT 3747 10309

TLM