Special Weather Statement, NWS Pueblo, CO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1148 AM MDT THU JUN 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 430 AM MDT Thu Jun 30 2016

...Increasing Thunderstorm chances today with heavy rainfall and
potential for localized flash flooding increasing...

Moisture plume within the upper ridge continues to shift eastward
across CO today with main the apparent shortwave back across UT
progged to move across northern CO tonight as the upper ridge
flattens. Quite a bit of convection ongoing across the mountains
early this morning...with a few showers moving across northeast CO.
Much of the activity across southeast CO has moved out of the area
as last nights MCS pushed eastward into KS.  Stalled frontal
boundary is still sitting across southeast CO...along or a tad south
of the Arkansas river.  However there are several outflow boundaries
across northeast CO and northwest KS moving towards the area early
this morning as MCSs continue to roll southeastward through the
central plains.

Going to be an active 24 hours...with moisture increasing across all
of the area.  Several weak embedded disturbances within the upper
ridge will move across the area...while the main feature of interest
across northwest UT makes slow progress across northern CO through
tonight.  With showers already going across the western
mountains...trend will be for increasing pops through the morning
across the mountains...spreading across the plains during the
afternoon.  Frontal boundary will remain stalled along or just south
of the Arkansas River valley through morning before it gets a
reinforcing surge later this afternoon through tonight aided by
convective outflows and a cold front.  Lots of variability in the
models concerning QPF today...but overall synoptic signal continues
to favor northern and eastern sections of the forecast area for
heavier precipitation through tonight. Pikes peak region...and
northern portions of the southeast plains should see convection
congeal into another cluster which pushes eastward onto the plains
during the evening...and into KS after 06z.  Differences in the
models grow in respect to QPF after 06z tonight...with 06z NAM12 now
heavy handed in keeping fairly widespread showers and thunderstorms
going across the plains tonight along/behind the cold front into the
morning.  While this is certainly plausible...think that low level
jet will focus this activity farther east across southern KS late
tonight.  However with low level easterly flow intensifying across
the far eastern counties after 06z...seems reasonable to maintain at
least some scattered pops through the night across most of the area.
CAPEs of around 1000-1500 J/kg this afternoon and evening...and deep
layer shears 30-40 kts suggest potential for one or two severe
storms across the southeast plains again this afternoon through this
evening with hail around 1 inch in diameter...and wind gusts of 60
mph or greater possible with the stronger storms. Perhaps of greater
concern will be the potential for localized flash flooding to occur
across the plains along/north of the Arkansas River valley where
some locations have received some heavy rainfall over the past few
days. High res models suggest storms should be moving pretty good
this evening which may keep threat more localized...so no flash
flood watch appears needed at this time.  But this prospect will
certainly bear watching. -KT

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 430 AM MDT Thu Jun 30 2016

Not many adjustments from previous meteorological thinking with
primary concerns focused on pops(including the concern for
heavy rain...flash flooding potential), as well as the potential
for strong to potentially severe thunderstorms at times and
temperatures.

Recent longer range computer simulations, PV analysis and
forecast model soundings indicate that upper ridge located near
Abilene, Texas at 12Z Friday shifts across southeastern Texas
Saturday, while a healthy upper disturbance impacts the forecast
district during this time-frame...especially Saturday. Then...next
round of upper ridging and associated drying is expected to
develop over the forecast district from later in the weekend into
early next week.

The combination of adequate to abundant atmospheric moisture(as
noted by forecast precipitable water values exceeding 1.25 inches
at times) interacting with upper energy(per PV analysis) and north
to northeasterly surface surges will allow unsettled, cooler and
wet conditions at times across many portions of the forecast
district...especially from Friday into Saturday. Locally heavy
rain...capable of producing localized flash flooding(including but
not limited to burn scars) is anticipated during this time-frame.
As always, WFO Pueblo will monitor closely and issues hydro
highlights as needed.

In addition, the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms
also exists at times from Friday into Saturday as localized
capes, LI's and 0 to 6 km bulk shear values near and/or exceed
1400 J/KG, -6C and 35 knots at times respectively(once again
favoring eastern portions of the forecast district).

Finally, below seasonal maximum temperatures are projected over
the majority of the forecast district from Friday into the weekend,
with above seasonal maximum temperatures returning from Monday
into next Wednesday; while strongest gradient winds during the
longer term should be experienced from later Friday into Saturday
morning.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1131 AM MDT Thu Jun 30 2016

Thunderstorms developing across the mountains at midday will
spread onto the plains and interior valleys during the afternoon
and evening. CIGS/VIS at taf sites will stay predominantly
VFR, though thunderstorms will produce localized MVFR conditions
with heavy rainfall and erratic gusty winds up to 40 kts. As
thunderstorms spread across the plains, could see some hail and
localized wind gusts to 50 kts or better, but appears main threat
will stay east of the KCOS and KPUB terminals. Held on to at least
a mention of vcts at KPUB and KCOS past 00z as a few mesoscale
models show a second round of convection 01z-03z pushing across
the I-25 corridor. Overnight, low level winds will become more
e-se with widespread IFR cigs developing across most of the
southeast plains after 09z-10z. KALS will remain VFR overnight.

&&

.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

AVIATION...PETERSEN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1115 AM MDT THU JUN 30 2016

COZ058>089-093>099-011715-
WESTERN MOSQUITO RANGE/EAST LAKE COUNTY ABOVE 11000 FT-
LEADVILLE VICINITY/LAKE COUNTY BELOW 11000 FT-
EASTERN SAWATCH MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FT-
WESTERN CHAFFEE COUNTY BETWEEN 9000 AND 11000 FT-
CENTRAL CHAFFEE COUNTY BELOW 9000 FT-
WESTERN MOSQUITO RANGE/EAST CHAFFEE COUNTY ABOVE 9000FT-
SAGUACHE COUNTY WEST OF CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BELOW 10000 FT-
SAGUACHE COUNTY EAST OF CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BELOW 10000 FT-
LA GARITA MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY/EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS BELOW 10000 FT-
EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
DEL NORTE VICINITY/NORTHERN SAN LUIS VALLEY BELOW 8500 FT-
ALAMOSA  VICINITY/CENTRAL SAN LUIS VALLEY BELOW 8500 FT-
SOUTHERN SAN LUIS VALLEY-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 8500 AND 11000 FT-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FT-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 7500 AND 11000 FT-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FT-
NORTHWESTERN FREMONT COUNTY  ABOVE 8500FT-
WESTERN/CENTRAL FREMONT COUNTY BELOW 8500 FT-
WET MOUNTAIN VALLEY BELOW 8500 FT-
WET MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 6300 AND 10000FT-
WET MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
TELLER COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE ABOVE 7500FT/PIKE'S PEAK BETWEEN
7500 AND 11000 FT-PIKES PEAK ABOVE 11000 FT-
CANON CITY VICINITY/EASTERN FREMONT COUNTY-
NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/MONUMENT RIDGE/RAMPART RANGE BELOW
7500 FT-
COLORADO SPRINGS VICINITY/SOUTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE
BELOW 7400 FT-PUEBLO VICINITY/PUEBLO COUNTY BELOW 6300 FEET-
WALSENBURG VICINITY/UPPER HUERFANO RIVER BASIN BELOW 7500 FT-
TRINIDAD VICINITY/WESTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY BELOW 7500 FT-
CROWLEY COUNTY-LA JUNTA VICINITY/OTERO COUNTY-
EASTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY-WESTERN KIOWA COUNTY-
EASTERN KIOWA COUNTY-LAS ANIMAS VICINITY/BENT COUNTY-
LAMAR VICINITY/PROWERS COUNTY-SPRINGFIELD VICINITY/BACA COUNTY-
1115 AM MDT THU JUN 30 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL...EAST
CENTRAL...SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN SPREAD ACROSS THE PLAINS FROM MID AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING HOURS. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER
OVERNIGHT...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS. THE MAIN
THREATS WITH THUNDERSTORMS TODAY INCLUDE LIGHTNING...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH. SOME SMALL HAIL WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. AS
THUNDERSTORMS MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STORMS TO BECOME STRONG
TO SEVERE WITH WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH THE MAIN
THREAT...ALONG WITH HAIL UP TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL COULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODING FOR URBAN AREAS...BURN
SCARS...AND FOR AREAS WITH SATURATED SOIL CONDITIONS FROM RECENT
HEAVY RAINS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED EACH DAY WITH
THE GREATEST COVERAGE STORMS FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. SMALL
HAIL...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...WIND GUSTS AROUND 50 MPH AND
LIGHTNING WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS
PERIOD. IN ADDITION...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH
HAIL AROUND 1 INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS OVER 60 MPH. HEAVY
RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...AND FLASH
FLOODING MAY OCCUR ON AREA BURN SCARS AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHEAST PLAINS WHERE RAINFALL HAS BEEN HEAVIEST THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER CONDITIONS THAT MEET REPORTING CRITERIA FOR SPOTTERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO.

10/77

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
234 PM MDT THU JUN 30 2016

COZ094-099-302100-
EASTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY CO-SPRINGFIELD VICINITY/BACA COUNTY CO-
234 PM MDT THU JUN 30 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN LAS ANIMAS AND
SOUTHWESTERN BACA COUNTIES UNTIL 300 PM MDT...

AT 234 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 11
MILES SOUTHEAST OF KIM...OR 38 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
SPRINGFIELD...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

THIS STORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF SOUTHEASTERN LAS
ANIMAS AND SOUTHWESTERN BACA COUNTIES.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO
STATIONS AND AVAILABLE TELEVISION STATIONS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 3700 10326 3715 10337 3728 10305 3703 10300
TIME...MOT...LOC 2034Z 240DEG 38KT 3712 10323

TLM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
301 PM MDT THU JUN 30 2016

COZ094-099-302130-
EASTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY CO-SPRINGFIELD VICINITY/BACA COUNTY CO-
301 PM MDT THU JUN 30 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EAST CENTRAL LAS ANIMAS AND WEST
CENTRAL BACA COUNTIES UNTIL 330 PM MDT...

AT 301 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 12
MILES EAST OF KIM...OR 31 MILES SOUTHWEST OF SPRINGFIELD...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

THIS STORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF EAST CENTRAL LAS
ANIMAS AND WEST CENTRAL BACA COUNTIES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO
STATIONS AND AVAILABLE TELEVISION STATIONS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 3708 10315 3724 10326 3743 10292 3717 10279
TIME...MOT...LOC 2101Z 239DEG 36KT 3721 10313

TLM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
322 PM MDT THU JUN 30 2016

COZ088-302145-
TRINIDAD VICINITY/WESTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY BELOW 7500 FT CO-
322 PM MDT THU JUN 30 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL LAS ANIMAS COUNTY UNTIL
345 PM MDT...

AT 321 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 9
MILES NORTHEAST OF AGUILAR...OR 20 MILES NORTH OF TRINIDAD...MOVING
EAST AT 30 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
TYRONE.

LAT...LON 3736 10457 3754 10460 3758 10413 3735 10409
TIME...MOT...LOC 2121Z 264DEG 26KT 3746 10450

TLM