Special Weather Statement, NWS Pueblo, CO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
310 PM MDT SUN JUN 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 310 PM MDT Sun Jun 5 2016

Currently, slightly more vigorous crop of afternoon convection has
developed over the mountains today, aided by increased instability
and lift from weak nw flow shortwave dropping through the state.
Northwesterly steering currents will help move storms southeastward
away from the higher terrain, and a few strong cells were already
moving through the srn San Luis Valley and srn I-25 corridor as of
21z. With LAPS and SPC mesoanalysis CAPES running in the 1000-1500
j/kg range along and south of Highway 50 this afternoon, expect
strongest and most widespread convection to stay over/near the
Wets/Srn Sangres/San Luis Valley/Srn I-25 corridor this evening,
with generally weaker and more isolated convection elsewhere. Storms
will then gradually diminish this evening with strongest convection
shifting southward into NM overnight.

On Monday, upper trough moves into the Great Basin while upper ridge
slides east toward CO. Pattern will keep light NW flow aloft in
place, with some weak energy dropping southward across the region
again in the afternoon. At the surface, low level easterly winds
will gradually increase through the day across the plains and
eastern mountains, as high pressure drops into the nrn plains and
weak low begins to spin up south of La Junta, with rather diffuse
frontal boundary forming along or just south of the Arkansas River
by afternoon. Plenty of instability available across the region with
CAPES in the 1000-2000 j/kg range, which should be sufficient for
fairly widespread convection by late in the day. 0-6km shear (25-35
kts) is rather marginal for severe storms, but instability should
be high enough to at least produce a few isolated pulse severe
storms, with most of the eastern mountains and plains in the SWODY2
marginal risk from SPC. Max temps Mon will creep upward a couple
degf many locations as height/mid level temps increase, with perhaps
a couple spots on the plains approaching 90f.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 310 PM MDT Sun Jun 5 2016

Monday night...Convection forecast to carry on through the evening
across the higher terrain and into the overnight across the
southeast plains.  Locally heavy rain will be possible with the
stronger cells. Low temperatures will be in the 50s across the
plains, with 30s to 40s across the mountains and high valleys.

Tuesday...An upper trough will move slowly eastward across the
Rockies. With the synoptic lift and instability, showers and storms
will develop midday, first across the higher terrain, and then
migrate into the high valleys and adjacent I-25 corridor and eastern
plains. At this time, SPC has not outlooked our CWA for severe, but
CAPE values above 1000 j/kg will allow for a few storms to be strong
to severe.  The main concern, though, will be the possibility for
locally heavy rain and flash flooding, especially in and near burn
scars and urban areas. The convection will likely carry on into the
evening across the higher terrain and into the overnight again
across portions of the southeast plains.

Wednesday...the upper trough is forecast move across Colorado, and
with the accompanying moisture and instabiliyt, showers and storms
will again occur across a good part of the CWA, probably starting
during the morning hours, and ramping up in coverage and intensity
from midday on. A few strong to severe storms will be possible,
along with the risk of locally heavy rain.

Thursday and Friday...As the upper trough weakens and moves east,
upper ridging will take place with the accompanying warming aloft,
so the atmosphere will be more stable.  However, there will be
moisture available to work with, so with the heating of the day,
showers and storms will develop, but probably with less coverage and
strength.

Saturday and Sunday...An upper trough will move into the Pacific NW
and then the Great Basin, generating south to southwest flow aloft
into the region.  With a tap of subtropical moisture setting up,
showers and storms will occur both days.

High temperature in the long range will be quite summerlike, with
readings in the 80s and 90s across the east, 70s and 80s across the
high valleys, and 50s to lower 70s across the mountains. -TM-

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 310 PM MDT Sun Jun 5 2016

Isolated tsra have developed over the mountains this afternoon, and
with favorable steering currents, expect a few storms to move across
interior valleys and the I-25 corridor through early evening. Latest
surface observations and model data continue to suggest best chance
for a storm into the evening will be at KALS, with lower chances at
KPUB and KCOS, though will carry a vcts mention all sites 22z-02z.
Main threat for terminals will be VFR cigs/vis with -TSRA along with
erratic gusty winds to around 40 kts. Threat should diminish after
02-03z with VFR conditions and light winds expected overnight.
Expect another round of convection Monday afternoon and evening,
with storms spreading across lower elevations late in the day. With
increased moisture, a few strong/severe storms will be possible at
all taf sites after about 19z-20z, and a period of MVFR cigs/vis is
likely with most tsra.

&&

.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...PETERSEN

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
443 PM MDT SUN JUN 5 2016

COZ074-075-088-052330-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FT CO-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 7500 AND 11000 FT CO-
TRINIDAD VICINITY/WESTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY BELOW 7500 FT CO-
443 PM MDT SUN JUN 5 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY
UNTIL 530 PM MDT...

AT 442 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
OVER STONEWALL...OR 27 MILES WEST OF TRINIDAD...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT
25 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL...WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
STONEWALL AND WESTON.

LAT...LON 3715 10515 3725 10495 3699 10465 3699 10506
TIME...MOT...LOC 2242Z 330DEG 22KT 3714 10501

MW

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
447 PM MDT SUN JUN 5 2016

COZ076-081>083-085-052330-
TELLER COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE ABOVE 7500FT/PIKE'S PEAK BETWEEN 7500 AND
11000 FT CO-NORTHWESTERN FREMONT COUNTY  ABOVE 8500FT CO-
PIKES PEAK ABOVE 11000 FT CO-
CANON CITY VICINITY/EASTERN FREMONT COUNTY CO-
COLORADO SPRINGS VICINITY/SOUTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE BELOW
7400 FT CO-
447 PM MDT SUN JUN 5 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN FREMONT...
SOUTHWESTERN TELLER AND SOUTHWESTERN EL PASO COUNTIES UNTIL 530 PM
MDT...

AT 447 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
OVER CRIPPLE CREEK...OR 20 MILES WEST OF COLORADO SPRINGS...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CRIPPLE CREEK...VICTOR AND CANON CITY.

LAT...LON 3876 10532 3883 10511 3855 10493 3842 10519
TIME...MOT...LOC 2247Z 332DEG 21KT 3873 10517

MW

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
825 PM MDT SUN JUN 5 2016

COZ081>083-085-060315-
TELLER COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE ABOVE 7500FT/PIKE'S PEAK BETWEEN 7500 AND
11000 FT CO-PIKES PEAK ABOVE 11000 FT CO-
CANON CITY VICINITY/EASTERN FREMONT COUNTY CO-
COLORADO SPRINGS VICINITY/SOUTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE BELOW
7400 FT CO-
825 PM MDT SUN JUN 5 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN FREMONT...SOUTHERN
TELLER AND WEST CENTRAL EL PASO COUNTIES UNTIL 915 PM MDT...

AT 824 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR FLORISSANT TO 6 MILES WEST OF CRIPPLE
CREEK. MOVEMENT WAS SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL...WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CRIPPLE CREEK...GREEN MOUNTAIN FALLS...VICTOR...FLORISSANT...
PIKES PEAK...CHIPITA PARK...CASCADE AND DIVIDE.

LAT...LON 3892 10496 3862 10504 3872 10533 3900 10533
TIME...MOT...LOC 0224Z 313DEG 18KT 3891 10527 3876 10529

MW

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