Special Weather Statement, NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
851 PM EDT SAT JUL 16 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A weakening cool front will continue to settle south across our area
through tonight before dissipating. Otherwise, high pressure remains
well to our southeast through early next week. As low pressure
tracks well to our north, an associated cold front will slowly move
across our area late Monday night and Tuesday. High pressure builds
in for Wednesday and Thursday, before shifting to the south and east
Thursday night and Friday. The next cold front may start to approach
late Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
Scattered to numerous convection continues to affect srn NJ with
other isolated cells across DE/Nrn NJ and NE PA. Plenty of warm
humid air about riding over sea breezes and outflow boundaries.
HRRR indicates that convection could continue N/W for a few more
hours. Overall, things should begin to wind down elsewhere.
Adjusted short term grids for temps/winds/pops.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
On Sunday, high pressure to our west will weaken as it moves toward
our area during the day, while the frontal boundary slowly pushes
offshore. There will remain a slight chance of showers, especially
early in the day as a short wave/vorticity impulse slides across the
area. Once this impulse slides to the east, the remainder of the day
should remain dry.

Sunday will be another very warm day, but not quite humid enough to
warrant a Heat Advisory. Peak heat index values in the low to mid
90s are expected.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Summary...Building heat and humidity early next week (Monday), then
a cool down for midweek before another round of potential excessive
heat/humidity arrives either Friday or Saturday.

The synoptic setup is comprised of a ridge across the southern
states Sunday night through Monday which then expands some north and
eastward through late next week. An initial zonal flow aloft however
is across our region into early next week as a trough in Canada
glances the Great Lakes region to New England. This trough does
amplify across the Northeast however Tuesday and Wednesday before
shifting offshore as ridging builds from the west and southwest.
Overall, this pattern favors a couple shots of excessive heat and
humidity which is mainly on Monday and then again Friday and
Saturday. The details however, especially pertaining to convective
chances, will determine the extent of the heat. We used a model
blend for Sunday night through Tuesday, then blended in the 12z WPC
guidance thereafter. Some adjustments were then made following
additional collaboration with our neighboring offices.

For Sunday night...As the flow turns more zonal aloft there are some
very weak short waves embedded within that moves across our area.
This may allow for an isolated shower early, although the forecast
soundings show the airmass is drying for a time. However, a
southwesterly flow remains and this will help boost the dew points
some again especially after sunset as mixing decreases. Overall
there is some instability however it appears the forcing is mainly
lacking and therefore a dry forecast is carried.

For Monday and Tuesday...A hotter airmass will be in place Monday
ahead of a cold front. This will boost afternoon temperatures into
at least the low to mid 90s for many areas, and this combined with
elevated dew points can push heat indices to about 100 degrees for a
time Monday afternoon. This will be determined primarily on how high
the dew points are as some guidance wants to lower them some.
Overall, a heat advisory looks to be needed for Monday. The models
however show a short wave arriving in the afternoon with a surface
trough also in place. There should be enough forcing combined with
modest instability to result in some afternoon and evening
convection especially inland from the coast. It appears that the
severe weather threat is on the low side, however given ample
moisture in place convection will produce locally very heavy rain.
The actual cold front looks to settle through our area late Monday
night and especially Tuesday. The bulk of the convection may be on
Monday with the pre-frontal trough and then drying begins to occur
during Tuesday as the front settles through.

For Wednesday and Thursday...In the wake of the cold front, high
pressure builds down with lower heights aloft. This will result in a
a cooler airmass especially Wednesday with a noticeable drop in the
dew points. The airmass may warm a bit on Thursday as an upper-level
trough axis shifts offshore. This results in the flow aloft
continuing from the northwest with some embedded short waves. As of
now, the airmass looks dry enough along with some increasing
anticyclonic flow aloft to preclude any convection.

For Friday and Saturday...A ridge across the central part of the
nation expands a bit north and east during this time frame. This
results in a hotter and humid airmass building back into the area,
however there is a pre-frontal trough or lee side trough in place.
As the airmass destabilizes there could be enough low-level forcing
to develop a few thunderstorms especially inland. An actual cold
front looks to not approach until late Saturday. The heat looks to
soar especially Saturday with heat indices potentially exceeding 100
degrees in many parts of the area. A mention of this will be placed
into the hazardous weather outlook.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Scattered showers and tstms continue across much of srn nj. Storms
have arrived at KACY and KMIV over the past hour. More showers
with embedded thunder near KPHL/KPNE also. AMDS possible next few
hours. Winds have been tricky around the convection.

Outside of any showers/thunderstorms, VFR conditions will continue
through the rest of the evening. Patchy fog may develop overnight
into Sunday morning, especially where any rainfall occurs. MVFR
conditions are forecast, but it is possible some areas might drop
into the IFR category.

Any fog will burn off after the sun rises Sunday and a VFR day will
then prevail. Winds this afternoon/evening will likely be highly
variable at some locations due to numerous outflow boundaries, but
the overall synoptic direction should be south to southeast. Winds
are expected to become west to northwest on Sunday with speeds 5-10
knots.

OUTLOOK...
Sunday night...Other than localized late night light fog/haze, VFR
conditions are expected. Southwesterly winds 5 knots or less.

Monday and Tuesday...Mainly VFR. There is the chance for some
showers and thunderstorms ahead of a cold front Monday afternoon and
night. If the front slow down, then a few showers and thunderstorms
could linger Tuesday especially south and east of KPHL.
Southwesterly winds increasing to 10-15 knots Monday, becoming
northwesterly Monday night and Tuesday in the wake of the cold front.

Wednesday and Thursday...VFR overall.

&&

.MARINE...
Sub-Small Craft Advisory conditions will continue through tonight
and Sunday, even as a frontal boundary moves across the area. South
to southeast winds today should become south to southwest tonight
into Sunday.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms could produce locally higher
winds and waves, along with dangerous lightning into the early
overnight.

OUTLOOK...
Sunday night through Thursday...The winds and seas are anticipated
to be below Small Craft Advisory criteria. The thunderstorm coverage
late Monday and Tuesday should be isolated to scattered. However, a
few of these could produce locally gusty winds.

RIP CURRENTS...The rip current risk is expected to remain low
through Sunday.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

Synopsis...Gorse
Near Term...O'Hara
Short Term...Robertson
Long Term...Gorse
Aviation...Gorse/Robertson/PO
Marine...Gorse/Robertson/Po

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
347 PM EDT SAT JUL 16 2016

NJZ001-PAZ054-055-172000-
SUSSEX-CARBON-MONROE-
347 PM EDT SAT JUL 16 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN NEW JERSEY AND
NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NJZ007>010-012-013-020-027-PAZ060>062-101-103-105-172000-
WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH-OCEAN-
SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-BERKS-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-WESTERN CHESTER-
WESTERN MONTGOMERY-UPPER BUCKS-
347 PM EDT SAT JUL 16 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NEW JERSEY...NORTHERN
NEW JERSEY...NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY...SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY...EAST
CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AND SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS INTO THIS EVENING MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY STRONG
WINDS, MAINLY CLOSER TO THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

MONDAY...HEAT INDICES IN THE AFTERNOON SHOULD PEAK IN THE 95 TO
100 DEGREE RANGE.

SATURDAY...HEAT INDICES IN THE AFTERNOON SHOULD REACH 100 DEGREES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

DEZ001-NJZ015-017>019-PAZ070-071-102-104-106-172000-
NEW CASTLE-MERCER-GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-DELAWARE-
PHILADELPHIA-EASTERN CHESTER-EASTERN MONTGOMERY-LOWER BUCKS-
347 PM EDT SAT JUL 16 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN DELAWARE...CENTRAL
NEW JERSEY...SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS INTO THIS EVENING MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY STRONG
WINDS AND HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

MONDAY...HEAT INDICES IN THE AFTERNOON SHOULD PEAK AROUND 100 DEGREES.

SATURDAY...HEAT INDICES IN THE AFTERNOON SHOULD REACH 100-105 DEGREES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

DEZ002-003-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ016-021>023-172000-
KENT-INLAND SUSSEX-CECIL-KENT MD-QUEEN ANNES-TALBOT-CAROLINE-SALEM-
CUMBERLAND-ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY-
347 PM EDT SAT JUL 16 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL DELAWARE...SOUTHERN
DELAWARE...NORTHEAST MARYLAND AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS INTO THIS EVENING MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY STRONG
WINDS AND HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

MONDAY...HEAT INDICES IN THE AFTERNOON SHOULD PEAK AROUND 100 DEGREES.

SATURDAY...HEAT INDICES IN THE AFTERNOON SHOULD REACH 100-105 DEGREES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

DEZ004-NJZ014-024>026-172000-
DELAWARE BEACHES-EASTERN MONMOUTH-ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-
COASTAL ATLANTIC-COASTAL OCEAN-
347 PM EDT SAT JUL 16 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHERN DELAWARE...CENTRAL
NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS INTO THIS EVENING MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY STRONG
WINDS AND HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ANZ430-431-450>455-172000-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS NORTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS SOUTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE EGG INLET TO GREAT EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM GREAT EGG INLET TO CAPE MAY NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE MAY NJ TO CAPE HENLOPEN DE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE HENLOPEN TO FENWICK ISLAND DE OUT 20 NM-
347 PM EDT SAT JUL 16 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS AND
DELAWARE BAY WATERS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS INTO THIS EVENING, ESPECIALLY NORTH OF LITTLE
EGG INLET NEW JERSEY, MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY STRONG WINDS AND HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
843 PM EDT SAT JUL 16 2016

NJZ016>018-021-022-170115-
SALEM-ATLANTIC-CUMBERLAND-GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-
843 PM EDT SAT JUL 16 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT WEST CENTRAL CAMDEN...
SOUTHEASTERN GLOUCESTER...NORTHWESTERN ATLANTIC...CENTRAL SALEM AND
NORTHWESTERN CUMBERLAND COUNTIES...

AT 843 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS OVER SHILOH...OR NEAR
BRIDGETON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH AND PEA SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
VINELAND...BRIDGETON...GLASSBORO...PITMAN...CLAYTON...BUENA...
ALLOWAY...QUINTON...NEWFIELD...ELMER...GREENWICH...SHILOH...MALAGA...
HANCOCKS BRIDGE...TURNERSVILLE...SEABROOK FARMS...FRANKLINVILLE...
MONROE TOWNSHIP...ROSENHAYN AND WILLIAMSTOWN.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

LAT...LON 3935 7531 3934 7536 3936 7540 3938 7540
      3940 7545 3942 7545 3942 7547 3943 7546
      3944 7549 3948 7554 3979 7505 3956 7486
TIME...MOT...LOC 0043Z 235DEG 30KT 3949 7533

SFJ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
915 PM EDT SAT JUL 16 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0903 PM     HEAVY RAIN       5 E GREENTREE VILLAGE   39.91N  74.84W
07/16/2016  M2.20 INCH       BURLINGTON         NJ   MESONET

&&

EVENT NUMBER PHI1601429

STAFF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
916 PM EDT SAT JUL 16 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0858 PM     HEAVY RAIN       2 S TURNERSVILLE        39.74N  75.06W
07/16/2016  M2.10 INCH       GLOUCESTER         NJ   MESONET

&&

EVENT NUMBER PHI1601430

STAFF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
917 PM EDT SAT JUL 16 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0901 PM     HEAVY RAIN       2 SSW SPRINGDALE        39.85N  74.98W
07/16/2016  M2.08 INCH       CAMDEN             NJ   MESONET

&&

EVENT NUMBER PHI1601431

STAFF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
941 PM EDT SAT JUL 16 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0930 PM     TSTM WND DMG     BERLIN                  39.79N  74.94W
07/16/2016                   CAMDEN             NJ   TRAINED SPOTTER

            WIRES AND TREE LIMBS DOWN

&&

EVENT NUMBER PHI1601432

SFJ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
951 PM EDT SAT JUL 16 2016

NJZ018-022-027-170215-
ATLANTIC-CAMDEN-SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-
951 PM EDT SAT JUL 16 2016

...AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN CAMDEN...
NORTHWESTERN ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON COUNTIES...

AT 950 PM EDT...AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS OVER ELWOOD-
MAGNOLIA...OR 15 MILES NORTHEAST OF VINELAND...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
10 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH AND HALF INCH HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
HAMMONTON...SHAMONG...EGG HARBOR CITY...WEYMOUTH...WADING RIVER...
WHARTON STATE FOREST...ATSION...ELWOOD-MAGNOLIA...BATSTO...
MAYS LANDING...FOLSOM AND COLLINGS LAKES.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 3961 7444 3955 7452 3945 7470 3958 7488
      3979 7470
TIME...MOT...LOC 0150Z 222DEG 10KT 3957 7473

SFJ