Special Weather Statement, NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
337 PM EDT SAT JUL 16 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A weakening cool front will continue to settle south across our area
through tonight before dissipating. Otherwise, high pressure remains
well to our southeast through early next week. As low pressure
tracks well to our north, an associated cold front will slowly move
across our area late Monday night and Tuesday. High pressure builds
in for Wednesday and Thursday, before shifting to the south and east
Thursday night and Friday. The next cold front may start to approach
late Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
Isolated/scattered showers and thunderstorms have develop along a
frontal boundary/surface trough that has stalled out across the
area. A weak area of low pressure has developed along the boundary
today, which is helping enhance the showers and thunderstorms, along
with enhanced lift front an approaching short wave from the west.
Showers and thunderstorms will continue to develop through the
afternoon and into the evening associated as daytime instability
remains.

A secondary frontal boundary is expected to move into the area
overnight, which may bring a second round of showers and
thunderstorms across the area late this evening and into the early
morning hours.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
On Sunday, high pressure to our west will weaken as it moves toward
our area during the day, while the frontal boundary slowly pushes
offshore. There will remain a slight chance of showers, especially
early in the day as a short wave/vorticity impulse slides across the
area. Once this impulse slides to the east, the remainder of the day
should remain dry.

Sunday will be another very warm day, but not quite humid enough to
warrant a Heat Advisory. Peak heat index values in the low to mid
90s are expected.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Summary...Building heat and humidity early next week (Monday), then
a cool down for midweek before another round of potential excessive
heat/humidity arrives either Friday or Saturday.

The synoptic setup is comprised of a ridge across the southern
states Sunday night through Monday which then expands some north and
eastward through late next week. An initial zonal flow aloft however
is across our region into early next week as a trough in Canada
glances the Great Lakes region to New England. This trough does
amplify across the Northeast however Tuesday and Wednesday before
shifting offshore as ridging builds from the west and southwest.
Overall, this pattern favors a couple shots of excessive heat and
humidity which is mainly on Monday and then again Friday and
Saturday. The details however, especially pertaining to convective
chances, will determine the extent of the heat. We used a model
blend for Sunday night through Tuesday, then blended in the 12z WPC
guidance thereafter. Some adjustments were then made following
additional collaboration with our neighboring offices.

For Sunday night...As the flow turns more zonal aloft there are some
very weak short waves embedded within that moves across our area.
This may allow for an isolated shower early, although the forecast
soundings show the airmass is drying for a time. However, a
southwesterly flow remains and this will help boost the dew points
some again especially after sunset as mixing decreases. Overall
there is some instability however it appears the forcing is mainly
lacking and therefore a dry forecast is carried.

For Monday and Tuesday...A hotter airmass will be in place Monday
ahead of a cold front. This will boost afternoon temperatures into
at least the low to mid 90s for many areas, and this combined with
elevated dew points can push heat indices to about 100 degrees for a
time Monday afternoon. This will be determined primarily on how high
the dew points are as some guidance wants to lower them some.
Overall, a heat advisory looks to be needed for Monday. The models
however show a short wave arriving in the afternoon with a surface
trough also in place. There should be enough forcing combined with
modest instability to result in some afternoon and evening
convection especially inland from the coast. It appears that the
severe weather threat is on the low side, however given ample
moisture in place convection will produce locally very heavy rain.
The actual cold front looks to settle through our area late Monday
night and especially Tuesday. The bulk of the convection may be on
Monday with the pre-frontal trough and then drying begins to occur
during Tuesday as the front settles through.

For Wednesday and Thursday...In the wake of the cold front, high
pressure builds down with lower heights aloft. This will result in a
a cooler airmass especially Wednesday with a noticeable drop in the
dew points. The airmass may warm a bit on Thursday as an upper-level
trough axis shifts offshore. This results in the flow aloft
continuing from the northwest with some embedded short waves. As of
now, the airmass looks dry enough along with some increasing
anticyclonic flow aloft to preclude any convection.

For Friday and Saturday...A ridge across the central part of the
nation expands a bit north and east during this time frame. This
results in a hotter and humid airmass building back into the area,
however there is a pre-frontal trough or lee side trough in place.
As the airmass destabilizes there could be enough low-level forcing
to develop a few thunderstorms especially inland. An actual cold
front looks to not approach until late Saturday. The heat looks to
soar especially Saturday with heat indices potentially exceeding 100
degrees in many parts of the area. A mention of this will be placed
into the hazardous weather outlook.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue to develop along a
frontal boundary/surface trough across southeast Pennsylvania,
central and southern New Jersey, and portions of the Delmarva. A
brief period of MVFR or IFR visibilities and/or ceilings are
possible with any of these showers/thunderstorms. The majority of
this convection should end by this evening, however, a second round
of showers, and possible thunderstorms, may move into the area later
this evening and into the overnight hours as a secondary front moves
into the area.

Outside of any showers/thunderstorms, VFR conditions will continue
through the rest of the day into this evening. Patchy fog may
develop overnight into Sunday morning, especially where any rainfall
occurs. MVFR conditions are forecast, but it is possible some areas
might drop into the IFR category.

Any fog will burn off after the sun rises Sunday and a VFR day will
then prevail. Winds this afternoon/evening will likely be highly
variable at some locations due to numerous outflow boundaries, but
the overall synoptic direction should be south to southeast. Winds
are expected to become west to northwest on Sunday with speeds 5-10
knots.

OUTLOOK...
Sunday night...Other than localized late night light fog/haze, VFR
conditions are expected. Southwesterly winds 5 knots or less.

Monday and Tuesday...Mainly VFR. There is the chance for some
showers and thunderstorms ahead of a cold front Monday afternoon and
night. If the front slow down, then a few showers and thunderstorms
could linger Tuesday especially south and east of KPHL.
Southwesterly winds increasing to 10-15 knots Monday, becoming
northwesterly Monday night and Tuesday in the wake of the cold front.

Wednesday and Thursday...VFR overall.

&&

.MARINE...
Sub-Small Craft Advisory conditions will continue through tonight
and Sunday, even as a frontal boundary moves across the area. South
to southeast winds today should become south to southwest tonight
into Sunday.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms could produce locally higher
winds and waves, along with dangerous lightning this afternoon and
evening.

OUTLOOK...
Sunday night through Thursday...The winds and seas are anticipated
to be below Small Craft Advisory criteria. The thunderstorm coverage
late Monday and Tuesday should be isolated to scattered. However, a
few of these could produce locally gusty winds.

RIP CURRENTS...The rip current risk is expected to remain low
through Sunday.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

Synopsis...Gorse
Near Term...Robertson
Short Term...Robertson
Long Term...Gorse
Aviation...Gorse/Robertson
Marine...Gorse/Robertson

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
347 PM EDT SAT JUL 16 2016

NJZ001-PAZ054-055-172000-
SUSSEX-CARBON-MONROE-
347 PM EDT SAT JUL 16 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN NEW JERSEY AND
NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NJZ007>010-012-013-020-027-PAZ060>062-101-103-105-172000-
WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH-OCEAN-
SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-BERKS-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-WESTERN CHESTER-
WESTERN MONTGOMERY-UPPER BUCKS-
347 PM EDT SAT JUL 16 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NEW JERSEY...NORTHERN
NEW JERSEY...NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY...SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY...EAST
CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AND SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS INTO THIS EVENING MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY STRONG
WINDS, MAINLY CLOSER TO THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

MONDAY...HEAT INDICES IN THE AFTERNOON SHOULD PEAK IN THE 95 TO
100 DEGREE RANGE.

SATURDAY...HEAT INDICES IN THE AFTERNOON SHOULD REACH 100 DEGREES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

DEZ001-NJZ015-017>019-PAZ070-071-102-104-106-172000-
NEW CASTLE-MERCER-GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-DELAWARE-
PHILADELPHIA-EASTERN CHESTER-EASTERN MONTGOMERY-LOWER BUCKS-
347 PM EDT SAT JUL 16 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN DELAWARE...CENTRAL
NEW JERSEY...SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS INTO THIS EVENING MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY STRONG
WINDS AND HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

MONDAY...HEAT INDICES IN THE AFTERNOON SHOULD PEAK AROUND 100 DEGREES.

SATURDAY...HEAT INDICES IN THE AFTERNOON SHOULD REACH 100-105 DEGREES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

DEZ002-003-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ016-021>023-172000-
KENT-INLAND SUSSEX-CECIL-KENT MD-QUEEN ANNES-TALBOT-CAROLINE-SALEM-
CUMBERLAND-ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY-
347 PM EDT SAT JUL 16 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL DELAWARE...SOUTHERN
DELAWARE...NORTHEAST MARYLAND AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS INTO THIS EVENING MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY STRONG
WINDS AND HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

MONDAY...HEAT INDICES IN THE AFTERNOON SHOULD PEAK AROUND 100 DEGREES.

SATURDAY...HEAT INDICES IN THE AFTERNOON SHOULD REACH 100-105 DEGREES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

DEZ004-NJZ014-024>026-172000-
DELAWARE BEACHES-EASTERN MONMOUTH-ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-
COASTAL ATLANTIC-COASTAL OCEAN-
347 PM EDT SAT JUL 16 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHERN DELAWARE...CENTRAL
NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS INTO THIS EVENING MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY STRONG
WINDS AND HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ANZ430-431-450>455-172000-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS NORTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS SOUTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE EGG INLET TO GREAT EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM GREAT EGG INLET TO CAPE MAY NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE MAY NJ TO CAPE HENLOPEN DE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE HENLOPEN TO FENWICK ISLAND DE OUT 20 NM-
347 PM EDT SAT JUL 16 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS AND
DELAWARE BAY WATERS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS INTO THIS EVENING, ESPECIALLY NORTH OF LITTLE
EGG INLET NEW JERSEY, MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY STRONG WINDS AND HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
732 PM EDT SAT JUL 16 2016

MDZ015-019-020-170000-
CAROLINE-TALBOT-QUEEN ANNE'S-
732 PM EDT SAT JUL 16 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT TALBOT...SOUTH CENTRAL QUEEN
ANNE'S AND SOUTHERN CAROLINE COUNTIES...

AT 732 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR COPPERVILLE...OR NEAR
EASTON...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH AND PEA SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
EASTON...DENTON...TRAPPE...ST. MICHAELS...PRESTON...OXFORD...
QUEEN ANNE...CHOPTANK...COPPERVILLE...HARMONY...TANYARD...SKIPTON...
WYE MILLS...AGNER...WINDYHILL...GRIFFIN...MATTHEWS...GRASONVILLE...
CORDOVA AND HAMBLETON.

LAT...LON 3886 7626 3886 7625 3883 7625 3879 7620
      3879 7619 3895 7623 3899 7618 3891 7575
      3868 7578 3871 7584 3868 7594 3857 7602
      3863 7608 3864 7615 3868 7617 3868 7621
      3871 7624 3876 7622 3871 7627 3872 7630
TIME...MOT...LOC 2332Z 283DEG 13KT 3884 7612

SFJ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
737 PM EDT SAT JUL 16 2016

NJZ017>020-022-027-PAZ071-170000-
OCEAN-ATLANTIC-GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-NORTHWESTERN
BURLINGTON-PHILADELPHIA-
737 PM EDT SAT JUL 16 2016

...AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT CAMDEN...EASTERN
GLOUCESTER...NORTHWESTERN ATLANTIC...SOUTHWESTERN OCEAN...CENTRAL
BURLINGTON AND SOUTHERN PHILADELPHIA COUNTIES...

AT 737 PM EDT...AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS OVER
MAGNOLIA...OR NEAR GLOUCESTER CITY...MOVING SOUTH AT 5 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH AND HALF INCH HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CAMDEN...GLOUCESTER CITY...CHERRY HILL...EVESHAM...MOUNT LAUREL...
VOORHEES...MEDFORD...LINDENWOLD...HAMMONTON...BELLMAWR...WOODBURY...
CLAYTON...BERLIN...TABERNACLE...SHAMONG...BUENA...MAGNOLIA...
WESTVILLE...BROOKLAWN AND CHESILHURST.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 3989 7516 3999 7490 3970 7438 3951 7497
TIME...MOT...LOC 2337Z 337DEG 5KT 3987 7502

SFJ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
739 PM EDT SAT JUL 16 2016

NJZ007>010-170015-
SOMERSET-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-WARREN-
739 PM EDT SAT JUL 16 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN WARREN...NORTHEASTERN
HUNTERDON...NORTHWESTERN SOMERSET AND SOUTHWESTERN MORRIS COUNTIES...

AT 739 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS OVER HAMPTON...OR 11 MILES
EAST OF EASTON...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH AND HALF INCH HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
HACKETTSTOWN...WASHINGTON...HIGH BRIDGE...CLINTON...OXFORD...
GLEN GARDNER...HAMPTON...LEBANON...CALIFON...BLOOMSBURY...
PLEASANT VALLEY...BEATYESTOWN...WHITE HOUSE STATION...BRASS CASTLE...
ANNANDALE...LONG VALLEY AND BEATTYESTOWN.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 4060 7505 4077 7511 4087 7478 4061 7471
TIME...MOT...LOC 2339Z 257DEG 11KT 4070 7499

SFJ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
745 PM EDT SAT JUL 16 2016

PAZ054-055-170015-
CARBON-MONROE-
745 PM EDT SAT JUL 16 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN MONROE AND
NORTHEASTERN CARBON COUNTIES...

AT 745 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR STODDARTSVILLE...OR 15
MILES SOUTHEAST OF WILKES-BARRE...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH AND HALF INCH HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BLAKESLEE...ALBRIGHTSVILLE...POCONO RACEWAY...LAKE HARMONY...
GOULDSBORO STATE PARK...MECKESVILLE...POCONO PINES...
LONG POND AND ARROWHEAD LAKE.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 4100 7537 4097 7575 4100 7576 4101 7573
      4103 7574 4105 7577 4109 7577 4113 7569
      4112 7564 4123 7554 4122 7551 4123 7551
      4124 7544
TIME...MOT...LOC 2345Z 257DEG 11KT 4109 7566

SFJ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
759 PM EDT SAT JUL 16 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0712 PM     MARINE TSTM WIND 10 SE LOVE POINT        38.92N  76.20W
07/16/2016  M45 MPH          QUEEN ANNE'S       MD   BUOY

&&

EVENT NUMBER PHI1600001

DH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
818 PM EDT SAT JUL 16 2016

NJZ007>010-170045-
SOMERSET-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-WARREN-
818 PM EDT SAT JUL 16 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL WARREN...NORTHEASTERN
HUNTERDON...NORTHWESTERN SOMERSET AND SOUTHWESTERN MORRIS COUNTIES...

AT 818 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS OVER CALIFON...OR 14 MILES
NORTHWEST OF SOMERVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH AND PEA SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
DOVER...HACKETTSTOWN...WHARTON...WASHINGTON...ROCKAWAY...
MOUNT ARLINGTON...MENDHAM...HIGH BRIDGE...NETCONG...CLINTON...
PEAPACK AND GLADSTONE...OXFORD...GLEN GARDNER...CHESTER...
VICTORY GARDENS...HAMPTON...LEBANON...CALIFON...
FAR HILLS AND SUCCASUNNA.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 4063 7497 4079 7504 4095 7451 4062 7453
TIME...MOT...LOC 0018Z 271DEG 13KT 4072 7482

SFJ