Dense Fog Advisory 1, NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly

204 
WWUS71 KPHI 040414
NPWPHI

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1114 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016

NJZ007>010-015-041200-
/O.EXA.KPHI.FG.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-160204T1200Z/
WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-MERCER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WASHINGTON...MORRISTOWN...FLEMINGTON...
SOMERVILLE...TRENTON
1114 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016

...DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A DENSE
FOG ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY.

* VISIBILITIES...ONE-QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT TIMES.

* LOCATIONS...DENSE FOG WILL MAINLY RESIDE WHERE THERE IS STILL A
  LEFTOVER SNOWPACK.

* TIMING...FOG IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
  HOURS UNTIL A FRONT ARRIVES BEFORE DAWN.

* IMPACTS...RAPIDLY CHANGING VISIBILITIES WILL CAUSE HAZARDOUS 
  DRIVING CONDITIONS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A DENSE FOG ADVISORY MEANS VISIBILITIES WILL FREQUENTLY BE
REDUCED TO LESS THAN ONE-QUARTER MILE. IF DRIVING...SLOW DOWN...
USE YOUR HEADLIGHTS...AND LEAVE PLENTY OF DISTANCE AHEAD OF YOU.

&&

$$

MDZ008-012-015-019-020-PAZ054-055-060>062-101>106-041200-
/O.CON.KPHI.FG.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-160204T1200Z/
CECIL-KENT MD-QUEEN ANNES-TALBOT-CAROLINE-CARBON-MONROE-BERKS-
LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-WESTERN CHESTER-EASTERN CHESTER-
WESTERN MONTGOMERY-EASTERN MONTGOMERY-UPPER BUCKS-LOWER BUCKS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ELKTON...CHESTERTOWN...CENTREVILLE...
EASTON...DENTON...JIM THORPE...STROUDSBURG...READING...
ALLENTOWN...BETHLEHEM...HONEY BROOK...OXFORD...WEST CHESTER...
KENNETT SQUARE...COLLEGEVILLE...POTTSTOWN...NORRISTOWN...
LANSDALE...CHALFONT...PERKASIE...MORRISVILLE...DOYLESTOWN
1114 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016

...DENSE FOG ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY...

* VISIBILITIES...ONE-QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT TIMES.

* LOCATIONS...DENSE FOG WILL MAINLY RESIDE WHERE THERE IS STILL A
  LEFTOVER SNOWPACK.

* TIMING...FOG IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
  HOURS UNTIL A FRONT ARRIVES BEFORE DAWN.

* IMPACTS...RAPIDLY CHANGING VISIBILITIES WILL CAUSE HAZARDOUS 
  DRIVING CONDITIONS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A DENSE FOG ADVISORY MEANS VISIBILITIES WILL FREQUENTLY BE
REDUCED TO LESS THAN ONE QUARTER MILE. IF DRIVING...SLOW DOWN...
USE YOUR HEADLIGHTS...AND LEAVE PLENTY OF DISTANCE AHEAD OF YOU.

&&

$$
JRK

817 
WWUS71 KPHI 041118
NPWPHI

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
618 AM EST THU FEB 4 2016

MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ007>010-015-PAZ054-055-060>062-101>106-
041230-
/O.CAN.KPHI.FG.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-160204T1200Z/
CECIL-KENT MD-QUEEN ANNES-TALBOT-CAROLINE-WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-
SOMERSET-MERCER-CARBON-MONROE-BERKS-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-
WESTERN CHESTER-EASTERN CHESTER-WESTERN MONTGOMERY-
EASTERN MONTGOMERY-UPPER BUCKS-LOWER BUCKS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ELKTON...CHESTERTOWN...CENTREVILLE...
EASTON...DENTON...WASHINGTON...MORRISTOWN...FLEMINGTON...
SOMERVILLE...TRENTON...JIM THORPE...STROUDSBURG...READING...
ALLENTOWN...BETHLEHEM...HONEY BROOK...OXFORD...WEST CHESTER...
KENNETT SQUARE...COLLEGEVILLE...POTTSTOWN...NORRISTOWN...
LANSDALE...CHALFONT...PERKASIE...MORRISVILLE...DOYLESTOWN
618 AM EST THU FEB 4 2016

...DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS CANCELLED THE
DENSE FOG ADVISORY.

THE FOG CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE EARLY THIS MORNING AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. VISIBILITY COULD STILL BE REDUCED
LOCALLY TO AROUND ONE-HALF MILE IN THE DELAWARE VALLEY THROUGH 7
AM.

$$
JRK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
342 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR REGION LATE TONIGHT AND THEN SLOW
DOWN AS IT SHIFTS OFFSHORE THROUGH THURSDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL DEVELOP ON THE FRONT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THURSDAY NIGHT
AND MOVE OUT TO SEA DURING FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN LATE
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, THEN A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY ARRIVE AND
REDEVELOP OFF OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
LTST RADAR SHOWED A LARGE AREA OF RAIN MOVG ACRS ERN PAD, MD AND NRN
DE AND NRN NJ ATTM.  IT WAS JUST STARTING TO MOVE INTO SRN AND ERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA.  EXPECT A STEADY RAIN, PERIODS OF WHICH WILL
BE MDT TO HVY THRU THE LATE AFTN AND INTO THE EVE AND ERLY
OVERNIGHT.  THEN CONDS SHUD IMPROVE FROM W TO E AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
CERTAINLY BY DAYBREAK ON THU.

A CDFNT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND DRIER AIR
WILL MOVE IN BEHIND IT AS NWLY FLOW DEVELOP BEHIND THE CFP.

STILL EXPECTING BTWN 0.75 AND 1.5 INCHES OF RAIN.  SEE HYDRO SECTION
OF AFD BELOW FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
CDFNT MOVES OFFSHORE BUT REMAINS VERY CLOSE. HIGH PRES BUILDS IN
BEHIND IT ON THU. LOW PRES IS FCST TO DEVELOP ALG THE FRONT AND
IMPACT MAINLY SRN AND ERN AREAS LATE THU AFTN WITH RAIN. OVERALL
QPF WILL BE LIGHT. FURTHER INLAND, A DRY DAY IS EXPECTED. TEMPS
WILL REMAIN ABV NRML (ABOUT 10 DEGREES), THOUGH COOLER THAN TODAY
IN WAKE OF CFP. WITH NWLY WIND THEY WILL FEEL COOLER.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SUMMARY...AN ACTIVE PATTERN WITH AN OFFSHORE STORM ALONG A FRONT
BACKING PRECIPITATION INLAND SOME THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY, THEN A
COASTAL STORM LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY SHOULD GO OUT TO SEA. WE THEN
HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW PRESSURE TO REDEVELOP OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK AS COLDER AIR ARRIVES.

THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SETUP INVOLVES A SHARPENING TROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY IN THE EAST, HOWEVER THIS FEATURE SHOULD LIFT OUT
AND WEAKEN SOME DURING FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. A MORE COMPLEX
PATTERN MAY THEN EVOLVE WITH A CLOSED LOW IN CANADA WITH ANOTHER
PIECE OF ENERGY IN THE SOUTHERN STATES SATURDAY. THE LATTER SHOULD
ALLOW AN OCEAN STORM TO DEVELOP OVER THE WEEKEND, HOWEVER THE TIMING
APPEARS TO BE SUCH TO LACK A COMPLETE PHASING AND THIS SYSTEM IS
CURRENTLY FORECAST TO SLIDE OUT TO SEA. THIS HOWEVER MAY OPEN THE
DOOR FOR A MORE IMPRESSIVE TROUGH THAT DEEPENS INTO THE EAST EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO REDEVELOP LOW PRESSURE IN THE
VICINITY OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST DURING THE LATE MONDAY AND
TUESDAY TIME FRAME. THIS SYSTEM MAY BE ONE TO WATCH CLOSELY GIVEN
THE POTENTIAL FOR A DEEP TROUGH THAT COULD CLOSE OFF INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC AREA. WE USED A MODEL BLEND WITH CONTINUITY FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY, THEN BLENDED IN MOSTLY THE 12Z WPC GUIDANCE
THEREAFTER. SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE THEN MADE FOLLOWING ADDITIONAL
COLLABORATION WITH OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...A FAIRLY NARROW UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
IS FORECAST TO SHARPEN UP SOME AS IT NEARS THE EAST COAST. THIS
ALLOWS FOR A SURFACE LOW TO DEVELOP ALONG THE OFFSHORE FRONT, AND
OVERALL THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS FARTHER WEST WITH THE WESTERN EDGE OF
THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD. THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH SHARPENING OF
THE TROUGH TO ALLOW LIFT TO GET TO AT LEAST THE EASTERN ZONES FOR A
TIME DURING THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING, AND IF THE TROUGH CAN
BECOME A BIT MORE NEGATIVELY TILTED THEN THE PRECIPITATION COULD BE
PULLED FARTHER WEST. THERE IS COOLING FORECAST TO TAKE PLACE AS THIS
IS OCCURRING AND WE ARE NOTING THE MODEL GUIDANCE LOWERING THE
SURFACE DEW POINTS AS WELL /WEST TO EAST/. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR A
PERIOD OF RAIN TO MIX WITH AND EVEN CHANGE TO SNOW BEFORE ENDING.
THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN GENERAL SUPPORT MORE RAIN THAN SNOW AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER MIGHT JUST BE TO MILD, HOWEVER IT MAY NOT TAKE MUCH
TO FLIP TO A PERIOD OF SNOW TOWARD THE COAST BEFORE IT ENDS WHICH
MAY ALLOW FOR AT LEAST SOME ACCUMULATION ON NON-PAVED SURFACES.

WE RAISED POPS TO THE LIKELY RANGE AND ALSO EXPANDED SOME POPS
FARTHER INLAND, AND WE INCLUDED SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. WE CONTINUED THE IDEA OF THE
RAIN MIXING WITH AND CHANGING TO WET SNOW BEFORE ENDING. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ARE LESS CERTAIN AS TEMPERATURES MAY REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING DURING THE ENTIRE TIME PRECIPITATION IS FALLING. IT SHOULD
BE NOTED THAT THE WESTWARD EDGE OF THE MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION AND
ALSO PRECIPITATION TYPE/TRANSITION IS OF LOWER CONFIDENCE ATTM,
HOWEVER GIVEN TRENDS IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE WE INCREASE POPS, QPF AND
INTRODUCED SOME SNOWFALL FOR THIS EVENT. THE SYSTEM THEN DEPARTS
FARTHER OFFSHORE DURING THE DAY FRIDAY WITH SOME CLEARING TAKING
PLACE FROM WEST TO EAST, THEN COLDER FRIDAY NIGHT.

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW BACKS MORE TO THE
SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SLIDING ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS ALLOWS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN BRIEFLY
SATURDAY BEFORE WEAKENING INTO SUNDAY. OUR REGION MAY END UP BETWEEN
SYSTEMS DURING THE WEEKEND AS A MAIN TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND AND ANOTHER ONE CLOSES OFF ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THE
LATER SHOULD DRIVE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
DURING SUNDAY WHICH THEN SHOULD GO OUT TO SEA ALTHOUGH IT MAY TOSS
AT LEAST SOME INCREASING CLOUDS OUR WAY. THE NORTHERN SYSTEM MAY
SEND A COLD FRONT INTO OUR AREA LATER SATURDAY, HOWEVER THIS FEATURE
LOOKS WEAK AND MOISTURE STARVED.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE PATTERN MAY THEN TAKE ON SIGNIFICANT
AMPLIFICATION AS A ROBUST TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS AND INTO
THE EAST DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THIS LOOKS TO RESULT IN LOW
PRESSURE INTO THE GREAT LAKES, HOWEVER THEN HANDING OFF ENERGY
EASTWARD THAT REDEVELOPS LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE DEVELOPMENT/TRACK OF THIS STORM MAY
DEPEND ON THE ACTUAL TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE PREVIOUS ONE. THERE
MAY ALSO BE HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED JUST NORTH OF NEW ENGLAND. THIS
HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A DECENT COASTAL STORM WITH COLD AIR
COMING INTO PLAY. WHILE THERE IS A SIGNAL IN THE GUIDANCE REGARDING
THE STORM, THE TRACK AND INTENSITY IS LESS CERTAIN AND THAT WILL
DETERMINE THE ACTUAL DETAILS IF ANY FOR OUR AREA WHICH INCLUDES
RAIN, SNOW, WIND AND COASTAL IMPACTS.

FOR WEDNESDAY...A POTENTIALLY STRONG TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BE IN THE
EAST, BASICALLY MOVING OVER OUR AREA. THIS WOULD TAKE ANY COASTAL
STORM OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST ALLOWING FOR IMPROVING CONDITIONS. AN
ARCTIC FRONT MAY BE WAITING TO OUR NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY, HOWEVER
CYCLONIC FLOW WILL RESULT IN SOME CLOUDS AND COLDER AIR WITH
POSSIBLY EVEN SOME SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

CONDS VARY FROM VFR (S AND E) TO LIFR (N AND W) ACRS THE REGION.
RADAR SHOWED A WIDE SWATH OF RAIN AND THOSE AREAS THAT STILL HAVE
VFR ARE STILL EXPECTED TO DECREASE LATER AND REMAIN IN THE IFR/LIFR
THRU THE EVENING AND ERLY OVERNIGHT, BEFORE IMPROVEMENT OCCURS.

WIND WILL SHIFT FROM S TO W TO NW AS CFP OCCURS OVERNIGHT.  BEHIND
CFP, DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN ON NWLY FLOW AND CONDS WILL IMPROVE FROM
W TO E.  BY DAYBREAK THU, ALL SITES SHUD BE VFR.  THEN EXPECT VFR
THRU THE BALANCE OF THU.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...A PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR
ESPECIALLY FOR THE KACY AND KMIV AREAS AS AN OFFSHORE STORM THROWS
SOME RAIN TO SNOW INTO THE EASTERN AREAS. VFR LATER FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...VFR OVERALL AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY
ARRIVES, HOWEVER CLOUDS MAY INCREASE SUNDAY WITH A WEAK FRONT AND
THEN ANOTHER OFFSHORE STORM.

MONDAY...VFR OVERALL, HOWEVER SOME ONSHORE FLOW COULD RESULT IN MORE
CLOUDINESS. LOWER CONFIDENCE WITH THE DETAILS.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THRU THU.  STRONG CDFNT WILL
REACH THE CST WATERS OVERNIGHT.  WIND AND SEAS WILL INCREASE, THEN
GRADUALLY DECREASE ON THU.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD GUST TO 25 KNOTS
FOR A TIME DUE TO AN OFFSHORE STORM MOVING BY, HOWEVER A BIT LESS
OVERALL ON DELAWARE BAY. THE SEAS THEREFORE ON THE OCEAN SHOULD BE
NEAR 5 FEET. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE OCEAN ZONES WAS
EXTENDED THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY AND MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED SOME MORE.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR MUCH OF THIS TIME, HOWEVER LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING LATE SUNDAY OFF OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SHOULD
INCREASE THE WINDS SUNDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH BUILDING SEAS. THIS MAY
RESULT IN ADVISORY CONDITIONS OCCURRING STARTING SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY...LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE MOVES FARTHER AWAY, THEREFORE THE
WINDS SHOULD BE DROPPING BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA HOWEVER IT MAY TAKE
AWHILE FOR SEAS TO DROP BELOW 5 FEET ON THE OCEAN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
CHANGES...THE FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO COVER MORRIS AND
WARREN COUNTIES IN NEW JERSEY AND NORTHAMPTON COUNTY IN PENNSYLVANIA.

IMPACTS...THE THREAT OF MINOR TO MODERATE RIVER FLOODING CONTINUES
FOR FOR THE PASSAIC AND RARITAN BASINS IN NJ AND THE SCHUYLKILL
BASIN IN PA. THOSE LIVING NEAR SMALL STREAMS THAT TEND TO EASILY
FLOOD SHOULD ALSO BE PREPARED FOR POSSIBLE FLOODING.

TERMINOLOGY...WHEN A RIVER REACHES FLOOD STAGE AND MINOR FLOODING
OCCURS, ROAD FLOODING IS COMMON. PROPERTY DAMAGE CAN OCCUR, BUT IS
MINIMAL. WHEN RIVERS REACH THEIR MODERATE FLOOD STAGE, ROAD FLOODING
IS COMMON. FLOODING OF STRUCTURES (BASEMENTS AND FIRST FLOOR) ALSO
BECOMES MORE COMMON. SOME EVACUATIONS MAY BE NECESSARY. SMALL STREAM
AND URBAN FLOODING IS WHEN THERE IS CONSIDERABLE PONDING OF WATER IN
POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. DANGEROUS FAST MOVING WATER IS COMMON IN
CREEKS, SMALL STREAMS, AND CULVERTS. BASEMENT FLOODING COULD OCCUR.
ROADWAY FLOODING IS COMMON UNDER OVERPASSES AND ALONG SMALLER CREEKS
AND STREAMS.

FORECAST...WHEN THURSDAY ROLLS AROUND, IT APPEARS MUCH IF NOT ALL
THE SNOW THAT IS ON THE GROUND ACROSS THE HSA WILL HAVE MELTED.
THE SNOW HAS REALLY RIPENED THE LAST 24 HOURS AND IS READY TO GO.
THIS SNOWMELT COMBINED WITH 0.75 TO 1.5 INCHES OF RAIN EXPECTED
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN FLOODING ACROSS THE
ABOVE MENTIONED BASINS.

THE THREAT OF FLOODING WILL BE TWO-FOLD.

FIRST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT, AND
THEN LATER TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THE FIRST THREAT WILL INCLUDE
LOW-LYING, POOR DRAINAGE, STREET, AND SMALL CREEK FLOODING. THIS
WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON THIS EVENINGS COMMUTE FROM THE I95 CORRIDOR
WESTWARD ACROSS NJ AND THROUGH EASTERN PA AND EASTERN MD. THE THREAT
STEMS FROM RAPIDLY MELTING SNOW, PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN, FROZEN
GROUND, AND POSSIBLY CLOGGED OR RESTRICTED STORM DRAINS.

THE SECOND THREAT STEMS FROM THE RUNOFF FLOWING FROM THE SMALLER
TRIBUTARIES INTO THE LARGER RIVERS. IT'S AT THIS TIME, TONIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY, WHERE WE SHOULD SEE RIVER FLOODING ALONG THE
PASSAIC, RARITAN, AND SCHUYLKILL RIVERS.

SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT, OR SWE, IS HIGHEST RIGHT ALONG THE I78
CORRIDOR AND LOCATIONS JUST TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH. GENERALLY, SWE
VALUES WERE RUNNING BETWEEN 1 AND 2.0 INCHES HERE EARLY THIS
MORNING. COMBINE THIS WITH THE EXPECTED RAINFALL, THIS AREA COULD
HAVE TO DEAL WITH OVER 3.00 INCHES OF POTENTIAL RUNOFF.

HEADLINES...THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR THE SAME AREAS. THE WATCH
HAS ALSO BEEN EXPANDED TO INCLUDE WARREN, MORRIS, AND NORTHAMPTON
COUNTIES. THE WATCH IS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON COVERING BOTH OF THE POTENTIAL FLOOD THREATS MENTIONED
ABOVE.

PREPARE FOR AREAS OF LOWLAND AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING. DETOURS ARE
POSSIBLE DUE TO CLOSED ROADS NEAR SOME OF THE FLOODED STREAMS AND
RIVERS AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

OUR FORECAST AREA BREAKDOWN...UPPER EASTERN SHORE OF MARYLAND (KENT,
QUEEN ANNE'S, TALBOT AND CAROLINE), SOME NUISANCE FLOODING IS LIKELY
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT. THE FLOOD WATCH INCLUDES CECIL
COUNTY WHERE BOTH THE HEAVIER RAIN IS EXPECTED AND REMAINING SWE IS
HIGHEST.

DELAWARE...NUISANCE FLOODING IS LIKELY LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT,
ESPECIALLY IN NEW CASTLE COUNTY WHERE BOTH THE RAIN IS EXPECTED
AND REMAINING SWE IS HIGHEST. SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS WILL LIKELY
APPROACH OR EXCEED BANKFULL, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
CASTLE.

NEW JERSEY...NUISANCE FLOODING WILL LIKELY OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT ACROSS THE WATCH AREA. A NUMBER OF SMALL CREEKS AND
STREAMS WILL APPROACH OR EXCEED BANKFULL IN CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
NEW JERSEY. IN ADDITION, THERE IS A THREAT OF RIVER FLOODING
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THIS THREAT LIES FROM NEAR TRENTON
NORTHEASTWARD WHICH INCLUDES PORTIONS OF THE PASSAIC AND RARITAN
BASINS. NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED ALONG THE DELAWARE.

PENNSYLVANIA...NUISANCE FLOODING WILL OCCUR, MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING ACROSS THE WATCH AREA. SMALLER CREEKS AND STREAMS
SUCH AS THE NESHAMINY, PERKIOMEN, BRANDYWINE, AND CHESTER WILL
LIKELY EXCEED FLOOD STAGE. IN ADDITION, THERE IS A THREAT OF RIVER
FLOODING TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THIS THREAT LIES ACROSS THE SCHUYLKILL
BASIN. NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED ALONG THE DELAWARE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
LISTED BELOW ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AND RECORD RAINFALL
FOR TODAY.

    RECORD MAX    RECORD RAIN    PERIOD OF RECORD
    ----------    -----------    ----------------

ACY...66-2006      1.61-1880           1874

PHL...62-2006      1.64-1939           1872

ILG...64-1991      1.40-1939           1894

ABE...63-1991      1.37-1982           1922

TTN...62-2006      1.57-1939           1865

GED...68-2006      1.47-1973           1948

RDG...63-1991      1.40-1939           1869

MPO...52-1973      2.19-1983           1901

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR PAZ060>062-070-071-
     101>106.
NJ...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR NJZ007>010-012-013-
     015>019.
DE...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR DEZ001.
MD...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR MDZ008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...NIERENBERG
SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GORSE/NIERENBERG
MARINE...GORSE/NIERENBERG
HYDROLOGY...KRUZDLO
CLIMATE...

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
351 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016

NJZ001-PAZ054-055-042100-
SUSSEX-CARBON-MONROE-
351 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN NEW JERSEY AND
NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THE COMBINATION OF RAINFALL AND SNOWMELT MAY LEAD TO SOME POOR
DRAINAGE FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A COASTAL STORM LATE MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. WHILE THE SIGNAL FOR A STORM IS THERE IT IS LESS
CERTAIN AT THIS TIME REGARDING THE TRACK AND INTENSITY, WHICH
WILL DETERMINE THE ASSOCIATED IMPACTS FOR OUR REGION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NJZ007>010-012-015-PAZ060>062-070-071-101>106-042100-
WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-MIDDLESEX-MERCER-BERKS-LEHIGH-
NORTHAMPTON-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-WESTERN CHESTER-EASTERN CHESTER-
WESTERN MONTGOMERY-EASTERN MONTGOMERY-UPPER BUCKS-LOWER BUCKS-
351 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NEW JERSEY...NORTHERN
NEW JERSEY...NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY...EAST CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AND
SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A COASTAL STORM LATE MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. WHILE THE SIGNAL FOR A STORM IS THERE IT IS LESS
CERTAIN AT THIS TIME REGARDING THE TRACK AND INTENSITY, WHICH
WILL DETERMINE THE ASSOCIATED IMPACTS FOR OUR REGION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

DEZ001-MDZ008-NJZ016>019-042100-
NEW CASTLE-CECIL-SALEM-GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-
351 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN DELAWARE...NORTHEAST
MARYLAND AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A COASTAL STORM LATE MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. WHILE THE SIGNAL FOR A STORM IS THERE IT IS LESS
CERTAIN AT THIS TIME REGARDING THE TRACK AND INTENSITY, WHICH
WILL DETERMINE THE ASSOCIATED IMPACTS FOR OUR REGION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

DEZ002>004-MDZ012-015-019-020-NJZ014-020>027-042100-
KENT-INLAND SUSSEX-DELAWARE BEACHES-KENT MD-QUEEN ANNES-TALBOT-
CAROLINE-EASTERN MONMOUTH-OCEAN-CUMBERLAND-ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY-
ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-COASTAL ATLANTIC-COASTAL OCEAN-
SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-
351 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL DELAWARE...SOUTHERN
DELAWARE...NORTHEAST MARYLAND...CENTRAL NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHERN NEW
JERSEY.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

A COMBINATION OF SOME HEAVIER RAIN AND RECENT SNOWMELT, SOME POOR
DRAINAGE FLOODING MAY OCCUR.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

SOME RAIN SHOULD CHANGE TO SNOW BEFORE ENDING THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY MORNING, WHICH COULD RESULT IN LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AND
LOCALLY SLIPPERY CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE ATLANTIC COAST.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A COASTAL STORM LATE MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. WHILE THE SIGNAL FOR A STORM IS THERE IT IS LESS
CERTAIN AT THIS TIME REGARDING THE TRACK AND INTENSITY, WHICH
WILL DETERMINE THE ASSOCIATED IMPACTS FOR OUR REGION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NJZ013-042100-
WESTERN MONMOUTH-
351 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NEW JERSEY.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.

SOME RAIN SHOULD CHANGE TO SNOW BEFORE ENDING THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY MORNING, WHICH COULD RESULT IN LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AND
LOCALLY SLIPPERY CONDITIONS.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A COASTAL STORM LATE MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. WHILE THE SIGNAL FOR A STORM IS THERE IT IS LESS
CERTAIN AT THIS TIME REGARDING THE TRACK AND INTENSITY, WHICH
WILL DETERMINE THE ASSOCIATED IMPACTS FOR OUR REGION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ANZ430-431-450>455-042100-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS NORTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS SOUTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE EGG INLET TO GREAT EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM GREAT EGG INLET TO CAPE MAY NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE MAY NJ TO CAPE HENLOPEN DE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE HENLOPEN TO FENWICK ISLAND DE OUT 20 NM-
351 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS AND
DELAWARE BAY WATERS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH THE
POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT OF A COASTAL STORM.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
432 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016

DEZ001>004-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ001-007>010-012>027-PAZ054-
055-060>062-070-071-101>106-040000-
NEW CASTLE-KENT-INLAND SUSSEX-DELAWARE BEACHES-CECIL-KENT MD-
QUEEN ANNES-TALBOT-CAROLINE-SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-
SOMERSET-MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH-EASTERN MONMOUTH-MERCER-SALEM-
GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-OCEAN-CUMBERLAND-
ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY-ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-COASTAL ATLANTIC-
COASTAL OCEAN-SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-CARBON-MONROE-BERKS-LEHIGH-
NORTHAMPTON-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-WESTERN CHESTER-EASTERN CHESTER-
WESTERN MONTGOMERY-EASTERN MONTGOMERY-UPPER BUCKS-LOWER BUCKS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WILMINGTON...DOVER...GEORGETOWN...
REHOBOTH BEACH...ELKTON...CHESTERTOWN...CENTREVILLE...EASTON...
DENTON...NEWTON...WASHINGTON...MORRISTOWN...FLEMINGTON...
SOMERVILLE...NEW BRUNSWICK...FREEHOLD...SANDY HOOK...TRENTON...
PENNSVILLE...GLASSBORO...CAMDEN...CHERRY HILL...MOORESTOWN...
MOUNT HOLLY...JACKSON...MILLVILLE...HAMMONTON...
CAPE MAY COURT HOUSE...OCEAN CITY...ATLANTIC CITY...
LONG BEACH ISLAND...WHARTON STATE FOREST...JIM THORPE...
STROUDSBURG...READING...ALLENTOWN...BETHLEHEM...MEDIA...
PHILADELPHIA...HONEY BROOK...OXFORD...WEST CHESTER...
KENNETT SQUARE...COLLEGEVILLE...POTTSTOWN...NORRISTOWN...
LANSDALE...CHALFONT...PERKASIE...MORRISVILLE...DOYLESTOWN
432 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016

...PATCHY DENSE FOG THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...

PATCHY DENSE FOG IS EXPECTED WITH AND BEHIND THE RAIN THAT IS
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. VISIBILITY BELOW ONE HALF MILE AT TIMES
WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE THE RAIN IS FALLING
ON TOP OF A SNOWPACK.

MOTORISTS ARE URGED TO EXERCISE CAUTION FOR RAPIDLY CHANGING
VISIBILITIES. IF YOU ENCOUNTER FOG, REDUCE SPEED, ALLOW EXTRA
FOLLOWING DISTANCE FROM THE VEHICLE IN FRONT OF YOU, AND USE LOW
BEAM HEADLIGHTS.

JOHNSON

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
648 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016

DEZ001>004-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ001-007>010-012>027-PAZ054-
055-060>062-070-071-101>106-040300-
NEW CASTLE-KENT-INLAND SUSSEX-DELAWARE BEACHES-CECIL-KENT MD-
QUEEN ANNES-TALBOT-CAROLINE-SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-
SOMERSET-MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH-EASTERN MONMOUTH-MERCER-SALEM-
GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-OCEAN-CUMBERLAND-
ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY-ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-COASTAL ATLANTIC-
COASTAL OCEAN-SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-CARBON-MONROE-BERKS-LEHIGH-
NORTHAMPTON-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-WESTERN CHESTER-EASTERN CHESTER-
WESTERN MONTGOMERY-EASTERN MONTGOMERY-UPPER BUCKS-LOWER BUCKS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WILMINGTON...DOVER...GEORGETOWN...
REHOBOTH BEACH...ELKTON...CHESTERTOWN...CENTREVILLE...EASTON...
DENTON...NEWTON...WASHINGTON...MORRISTOWN...FLEMINGTON...
SOMERVILLE...NEW BRUNSWICK...FREEHOLD...SANDY HOOK...TRENTON...
PENNSVILLE...GLASSBORO...CAMDEN...CHERRY HILL...MOORESTOWN...
MOUNT HOLLY...JACKSON...MILLVILLE...HAMMONTON...
CAPE MAY COURT HOUSE...OCEAN CITY...ATLANTIC CITY...
LONG BEACH ISLAND...WHARTON STATE FOREST...JIM THORPE...
STROUDSBURG...READING...ALLENTOWN...BETHLEHEM...MEDIA...
PHILADELPHIA...HONEY BROOK...OXFORD...WEST CHESTER...
KENNETT SQUARE...COLLEGEVILLE...POTTSTOWN...NORRISTOWN...
LANSDALE...CHALFONT...PERKASIE...MORRISVILLE...DOYLESTOWN
648 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016

...PATCHY DENSE FOG THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...

PATCHY DENSE FOG IS EXPECTED WITH AND BEHIND THE RAIN THAT IS
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. VISIBILITY BELOW ONE HALF MILE AT TIMES
WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE THE RAIN HAS FALLEN ON
TOP OF A SNOWPACK.

MOTORISTS ARE URGED TO EXERCISE CAUTION FOR RAPIDLY CHANGING
VISIBILITIES. IF YOU ENCOUNTER FOG, REDUCE SPEED, ALLOW EXTRA
FOLLOWING DISTANCE FROM THE VEHICLE IN FRONT OF YOU, AND USE LOW
BEAM HEADLIGHTS.