Areal Flood Warning 3, NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly

465 
WGUS41 KPHI 040648
FLWPHI

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
148 AM EST THU FEB 4 2016

NJC035-041330-
/O.EXT.KPHI.FA.W.0003.000000T0000Z-160204T1330Z/
/00000.0.RS.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
SOMERSET NJ-
148 AM EST THU FEB 4 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY NJ  HAS EXTENDED THE

* FLOOD WARNING FOR...
  RAIN AND SNOWMELT IN...
  WEST CENTRAL SOMERSET COUNTY IN NORTHERN NEW JERSEY...

* UNTIL 830 AM EST THURSDAY

* AT 145 AM EST...THE NORTH BRANCH OF THE RARITAN RIVER AT SOUTH
  BRANCH REMAINED ABOVE FLOOD STAGE.  

* ROADS ARE SUBJECT TO FLOODING AND CLOSURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE
  RIVER.  

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.

&&

LAT...LON 4061 7461 4051 7467 4053 7474 4063 7468

$$

KRUZDLO

152 
WGUS81 KPHI 041158
FLSPHI

FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
658 AM EST THU FEB 4 2016

NJC035-041206-
/O.CAN.KPHI.FA.W.0003.000000T0000Z-160204T1330Z/
/00000.0.RS.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
SOMERSET NJ-
658 AM EST THU FEB 4 2016

...THE FLOOD WARNING FOR RAIN AND SNOWMELT HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR
WEST CENTRAL SOMERSET COUNTY...

FLOOD WATERS HAVE RECEDED...AND ARE NO LONGER EXPECTED TO POSE A
THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY. PLEASE CONTINUE TO HEED ANY ROAD
CLOSURES.

LAT...LON 4061 7461 4051 7467 4053 7474 4063 7468

$$

KLINE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
959 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR REGION LATE TONIGHT AND THEN SLOW
DOWN AS IT SHIFTS OFFSHORE THROUGH THURSDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL DEVELOP ON THE FRONT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THURSDAY NIGHT
AND MOVE OUT TO SEA DURING FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN LATE
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, THEN A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY ARRIVE AND
REDEVELOP OFF OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
HEAVY RAIN HAS MOSTLY MOVED OFF SHORE, SO HAVE UPDATED THE POPS TO
REFLECT THIS. ALTHOUGH NORTHWESTERN AREAS MAY SEE A BRIEF RAIN
SHOWER ONCE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE TONIGHT (GENERALLY
EXPECTING ARRIVAL OF THAT AFTER 09Z).

FOR A WHILE IT LOOKED LIKE WE WOULD MISS OUT ON WIDESPREAD DENSE
FOG THANKS TO THE WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH OF OUR REGION. HOWEVER,
JUST WITHIN THE LAST 45 MINUTES, WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION
HAVE SEE VISIBILITIES DROP SIGNIFICANTLY AS DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS
APPROACH ZERO. THUS, HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR MUCH OF
SOUTHEASTERN PA AND NORTHEASTERN MD. IT MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED
FURTHER INTO NJ, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME, SO WILL
CONTINUE TO COVER WITH AN SPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
CDFNT MOVES OFFSHORE BUT REMAINS VERY CLOSE. HIGH PRES BUILDS IN
BEHIND IT ON THU. LOW PRES IS FCST TO DEVELOP ALG THE FRONT AND
IMPACT MAINLY SRN AND ERN AREAS LATE THU AFTN WITH RAIN. OVERALL
QPF WILL BE LIGHT. FURTHER INLAND, A DRY DAY IS EXPECTED. TEMPS
WILL REMAIN ABV NRML (ABOUT 10 DEGREES), THOUGH COOLER THAN TODAY
IN WAKE OF CFP. WITH NWLY WIND THEY WILL FEEL COOLER.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SUMMARY...AN ACTIVE PATTERN WITH AN OFFSHORE STORM ALONG A FRONT
BACKING PRECIPITATION INLAND SOME THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY, THEN A
COASTAL STORM LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY SHOULD GO OUT TO SEA. WE THEN
HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW PRESSURE TO REDEVELOP OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK AS COLDER AIR ARRIVES.

THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SETUP INVOLVES A SHARPENING TROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY IN THE EAST, HOWEVER THIS FEATURE SHOULD LIFT OUT
AND WEAKEN SOME DURING FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. A MORE COMPLEX
PATTERN MAY THEN EVOLVE WITH A CLOSED LOW IN CANADA WITH ANOTHER
PIECE OF ENERGY IN THE SOUTHERN STATES SATURDAY. THE LATTER SHOULD
ALLOW AN OCEAN STORM TO DEVELOP OVER THE WEEKEND, HOWEVER THE TIMING
APPEARS TO BE SUCH TO LACK A COMPLETE PHASING AND THIS SYSTEM IS
CURRENTLY FORECAST TO SLIDE OUT TO SEA. THIS HOWEVER MAY OPEN THE
DOOR FOR A MORE IMPRESSIVE TROUGH THAT DEEPENS INTO THE EAST EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO REDEVELOP LOW PRESSURE IN THE
VICINITY OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST DURING THE LATE MONDAY AND
TUESDAY TIME FRAME. THIS SYSTEM MAY BE ONE TO WATCH CLOSELY GIVEN
THE POTENTIAL FOR A DEEP TROUGH THAT COULD CLOSE OFF INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC AREA. WE USED A MODEL BLEND WITH CONTINUITY FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY, THEN BLENDED IN MOSTLY THE 12Z WPC GUIDANCE
THEREAFTER. SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE THEN MADE FOLLOWING ADDITIONAL
COLLABORATION WITH OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...A FAIRLY NARROW UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
IS FORECAST TO SHARPEN UP SOME AS IT NEARS THE EAST COAST. THIS
ALLOWS FOR A SURFACE LOW TO DEVELOP ALONG THE OFFSHORE FRONT, AND
OVERALL THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS FARTHER WEST WITH THE WESTERN EDGE OF
THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD. THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH SHARPENING OF
THE TROUGH TO ALLOW LIFT TO GET TO AT LEAST THE EASTERN ZONES FOR A
TIME DURING THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING, AND IF THE TROUGH CAN
BECOME A BIT MORE NEGATIVELY TILTED THEN THE PRECIPITATION COULD BE
PULLED FARTHER WEST. THERE IS COOLING FORECAST TO TAKE PLACE AS THIS
IS OCCURRING AND WE ARE NOTING THE MODEL GUIDANCE LOWERING THE
SURFACE DEW POINTS AS WELL /WEST TO EAST/. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR A
PERIOD OF RAIN TO MIX WITH AND EVEN CHANGE TO SNOW BEFORE ENDING.
THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN GENERAL SUPPORT MORE RAIN THAN SNOW AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER MIGHT JUST BE TO MILD, HOWEVER IT MAY NOT TAKE MUCH
TO FLIP TO A PERIOD OF SNOW TOWARD THE COAST BEFORE IT ENDS WHICH
MAY ALLOW FOR AT LEAST SOME ACCUMULATION ON NON-PAVED SURFACES.

WE RAISED POPS TO THE LIKELY RANGE AND ALSO EXPANDED SOME POPS
FARTHER INLAND, AND WE INCLUDED SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. WE CONTINUED THE IDEA OF THE
RAIN MIXING WITH AND CHANGING TO WET SNOW BEFORE ENDING. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ARE LESS CERTAIN AS TEMPERATURES MAY REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING DURING THE ENTIRE TIME PRECIPITATION IS FALLING. IT SHOULD
BE NOTED THAT THE WESTWARD EDGE OF THE MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION AND
ALSO PRECIPITATION TYPE/TRANSITION IS OF LOWER CONFIDENCE ATTM,
HOWEVER GIVEN TRENDS IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE WE INCREASE POPS, QPF AND
INTRODUCED SOME SNOWFALL FOR THIS EVENT. THE SYSTEM THEN DEPARTS
FARTHER OFFSHORE DURING THE DAY FRIDAY WITH SOME CLEARING TAKING
PLACE FROM WEST TO EAST, THEN COLDER FRIDAY NIGHT.

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW BACKS MORE TO THE
SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SLIDING ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS ALLOWS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN BRIEFLY
SATURDAY BEFORE WEAKENING INTO SUNDAY. OUR REGION MAY END UP BETWEEN
SYSTEMS DURING THE WEEKEND AS A MAIN TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND AND ANOTHER ONE CLOSES OFF ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THE
LATER SHOULD DRIVE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
DURING SUNDAY WHICH THEN SHOULD GO OUT TO SEA ALTHOUGH IT MAY TOSS
AT LEAST SOME INCREASING CLOUDS OUR WAY. THE NORTHERN SYSTEM MAY
SEND A COLD FRONT INTO OUR AREA LATER SATURDAY, HOWEVER THIS FEATURE
LOOKS WEAK AND MOISTURE STARVED.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE PATTERN MAY THEN TAKE ON SIGNIFICANT
AMPLIFICATION AS A ROBUST TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS AND INTO
THE EAST DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THIS LOOKS TO RESULT IN LOW
PRESSURE INTO THE GREAT LAKES, HOWEVER THEN HANDING OFF ENERGY
EASTWARD THAT REDEVELOPS LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE DEVELOPMENT/TRACK OF THIS STORM MAY
DEPEND ON THE ACTUAL TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE PREVIOUS ONE. THERE
MAY ALSO BE HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED JUST NORTH OF NEW ENGLAND. THIS
HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A DECENT COASTAL STORM WITH COLD AIR
COMING INTO PLAY. WHILE THERE IS A SIGNAL IN THE GUIDANCE REGARDING
THE STORM, THE TRACK AND INTENSITY IS LESS CERTAIN AND THAT WILL
DETERMINE THE ACTUAL DETAILS IF ANY FOR OUR AREA WHICH INCLUDES
RAIN, SNOW, WIND AND COASTAL IMPACTS.

FOR WEDNESDAY...A POTENTIALLY STRONG TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BE IN THE
EAST, BASICALLY MOVING OVER OUR AREA. THIS WOULD TAKE ANY COASTAL
STORM OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST ALLOWING FOR IMPROVING CONDITIONS. AN
ARCTIC FRONT MAY BE WAITING TO OUR NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY, HOWEVER
CYCLONIC FLOW WILL RESULT IN SOME CLOUDS AND COLDER AIR WITH
POSSIBLY EVEN SOME SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

RAIN HAS MOSTLY MOVED EAST OF THE TAF SITES (WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
ACY WHICH MAY CONTINUE TO SEE A SHOWER OR TWO OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS), HOWEVER FOG HAS BEGUN TO DEVELOP OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE REGION INCLUDING KRDG AND KABE. EXPECT THIS FOG TO PERSIST
UNTIL THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES SOMETIME BEFORE 12Z. NOT SURE HOW
DENSE THE FOG WILL BE OVER THE DELAWARE VALLEY (INCLUDING KPHL,
KPNE, KILG, AND KTTN) AND COASTAL PLAIN SITES (INCLUDING KMIV AND
KACY) ONCE IT DEVELOPS, SO FOR NOW HAVE GONE OPTIMISTICALLY,
THOUGH IT IS POSSIBLE VISIBILITIES COULD FALL BELOW 1 MILE.

CONDITIONS SHOULD RAPIDLY IMPROVE TO VFR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT,
AND SHOULD STAY VFR THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW.

WIND DIRECTION HAS BEEN VARIABLE OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS, BUT
SHOULD GENERALLY BE SOUTHWESTERLY UNTIL THE FRONT ARRIVES WHEN AN
ABRUPT SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY IS EXPECTED.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...A PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR
ESPECIALLY FOR THE KACY AND KMIV AREAS AS AN OFFSHORE STORM THROWS
SOME RAIN TO SNOW INTO THE EASTERN AREAS. VFR LATER FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...VFR OVERALL AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY
ARRIVES, HOWEVER CLOUDS MAY INCREASE SUNDAY WITH A WEAK FRONT AND
THEN ANOTHER OFFSHORE STORM.

MONDAY...VFR OVERALL, HOWEVER SOME ONSHORE FLOW COULD RESULT IN MORE
CLOUDINESS. LOWER CONFIDENCE WITH THE DETAILS.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA ON THE BAY HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH 12Z AS A FEW GUSTS ABOVE
25KT BOTH AHEAD OF AND WITH THE COLD FRONT WHICH SHOULD ARRIVE
BEFORE 12Z.

ON THE OCEAN WATERS, EXPECT SCA CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
DAY TOMORROW, THOUGH WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD BE SLOWLY SUBSIDING
AFTER SUNRISE.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD GUST TO 25 KNOTS
FOR A TIME DUE TO AN OFFSHORE STORM MOVING BY, HOWEVER A BIT LESS
OVERALL ON DELAWARE BAY. THE SEAS THEREFORE ON THE OCEAN SHOULD BE
NEAR 5 FEET. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE OCEAN ZONES WAS
EXTENDED THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY AND MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED SOME MORE.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR MUCH OF THIS TIME, HOWEVER LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING LATE SUNDAY OFF OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SHOULD
INCREASE THE WINDS SUNDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH BUILDING SEAS. THIS MAY
RESULT IN ADVISORY CONDITIONS OCCURRING STARTING SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY...LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE MOVES FARTHER AWAY, THEREFORE THE
WINDS SHOULD BE DROPPING BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA HOWEVER IT MAY TAKE
AWHILE FOR SEAS TO DROP BELOW 5 FEET ON THE OCEAN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
CHANGES...THE FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO COVER MORRIS AND
WARREN COUNTIES IN NEW JERSEY AND NORTHAMPTON COUNTY IN PENNSYLVANIA.

IMPACTS...THE THREAT OF MINOR TO MODERATE RIVER FLOODING CONTINUES
FOR FOR THE PASSAIC AND RARITAN BASINS IN NJ AND THE SCHUYLKILL
BASIN IN PA. THOSE LIVING NEAR SMALL STREAMS THAT TEND TO EASILY
FLOOD SHOULD ALSO BE PREPARED FOR POSSIBLE FLOODING.

TERMINOLOGY...WHEN A RIVER REACHES FLOOD STAGE AND MINOR FLOODING
OCCURS, ROAD FLOODING IS COMMON. PROPERTY DAMAGE CAN OCCUR, BUT IS
MINIMAL. WHEN RIVERS REACH THEIR MODERATE FLOOD STAGE, ROAD FLOODING
IS COMMON. FLOODING OF STRUCTURES (BASEMENTS AND FIRST FLOOR) ALSO
BECOMES MORE COMMON. SOME EVACUATIONS MAY BE NECESSARY. SMALL STREAM
AND URBAN FLOODING IS WHEN THERE IS CONSIDERABLE PONDING OF WATER IN
POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. DANGEROUS FAST MOVING WATER IS COMMON IN
CREEKS, SMALL STREAMS, AND CULVERTS. BASEMENT FLOODING COULD OCCUR.
ROADWAY FLOODING IS COMMON UNDER OVERPASSES AND ALONG SMALLER CREEKS
AND STREAMS.

FORECAST...WHEN THURSDAY ROLLS AROUND, IT APPEARS MUCH IF NOT ALL
THE SNOW THAT IS ON THE GROUND ACROSS THE HSA WILL HAVE MELTED.
THE SNOW HAS REALLY RIPENED THE LAST 24 HOURS AND IS READY TO GO.
THIS SNOWMELT COMBINED WITH 0.75 TO 1.5 INCHES OF RAIN EXPECTED
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN FLOODING ACROSS THE
ABOVE MENTIONED BASINS.

THE THREAT OF FLOODING WILL BE TWO-FOLD.

FIRST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT, AND
THEN LATER TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THE FIRST THREAT WILL INCLUDE
LOW-LYING, POOR DRAINAGE, STREET, AND SMALL CREEK FLOODING. THIS
WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON THIS EVENINGS COMMUTE FROM THE I95 CORRIDOR
WESTWARD ACROSS NJ AND THROUGH EASTERN PA AND EASTERN MD. THE THREAT
STEMS FROM RAPIDLY MELTING SNOW, PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN, FROZEN
GROUND, AND POSSIBLY CLOGGED OR RESTRICTED STORM DRAINS.

THE SECOND THREAT STEMS FROM THE RUNOFF FLOWING FROM THE SMALLER
TRIBUTARIES INTO THE LARGER RIVERS. IT'S AT THIS TIME, TONIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY, WHERE WE SHOULD SEE RIVER FLOODING ALONG THE
PASSAIC, RARITAN, AND SCHUYLKILL RIVERS.

SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT, OR SWE, IS HIGHEST RIGHT ALONG THE I78
CORRIDOR AND LOCATIONS JUST TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH. GENERALLY, SWE
VALUES WERE RUNNING BETWEEN 1 AND 2.0 INCHES HERE EARLY THIS
MORNING. COMBINE THIS WITH THE EXPECTED RAINFALL, THIS AREA COULD
HAVE TO DEAL WITH OVER 3.00 INCHES OF POTENTIAL RUNOFF.

HEADLINES...THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR THE SAME AREAS. THE WATCH
HAS ALSO BEEN EXPANDED TO INCLUDE WARREN, MORRIS, AND NORTHAMPTON
COUNTIES. THE WATCH IS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON COVERING BOTH OF THE POTENTIAL FLOOD THREATS MENTIONED
ABOVE.

PREPARE FOR AREAS OF LOWLAND AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING. DETOURS ARE
POSSIBLE DUE TO CLOSED ROADS NEAR SOME OF THE FLOODED STREAMS AND
RIVERS AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

OUR FORECAST AREA BREAKDOWN...UPPER EASTERN SHORE OF MARYLAND (KENT,
QUEEN ANNE'S, TALBOT AND CAROLINE), SOME NUISANCE FLOODING IS LIKELY
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT. THE FLOOD WATCH INCLUDES CECIL
COUNTY WHERE BOTH THE HEAVIER RAIN IS EXPECTED AND REMAINING SWE IS
HIGHEST.

DELAWARE...NUISANCE FLOODING IS LIKELY LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT,
ESPECIALLY IN NEW CASTLE COUNTY WHERE BOTH THE RAIN IS EXPECTED
AND REMAINING SWE IS HIGHEST. SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS WILL LIKELY
APPROACH OR EXCEED BANKFULL, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
CASTLE.

NEW JERSEY...NUISANCE FLOODING WILL LIKELY OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT ACROSS THE WATCH AREA. A NUMBER OF SMALL CREEKS AND
STREAMS WILL APPROACH OR EXCEED BANKFULL IN CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
NEW JERSEY. IN ADDITION, THERE IS A THREAT OF RIVER FLOODING
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THIS THREAT LIES FROM NEAR TRENTON
NORTHEASTWARD WHICH INCLUDES PORTIONS OF THE PASSAIC AND RARITAN
BASINS. NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED ALONG THE DELAWARE.

PENNSYLVANIA...NUISANCE FLOODING WILL OCCUR, MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING ACROSS THE WATCH AREA. SMALLER CREEKS AND STREAMS
SUCH AS THE NESHAMINY, PERKIOMEN, BRANDYWINE, AND CHESTER WILL
LIKELY EXCEED FLOOD STAGE. IN ADDITION, THERE IS A THREAT OF RIVER
FLOODING TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THIS THREAT LIES ACROSS THE SCHUYLKILL
BASIN. NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED ALONG THE DELAWARE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
LISTED BELOW ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AND RECORD RAINFALL
FOR TODAY.

    RECORD MAX    RECORD RAIN    PERIOD OF RECORD
    ----------    -----------    ----------------

ACY...66-2006      1.61-1880           1874

PHL...62-2006      1.64-1939           1872

ILG...64-1991      1.40-1939           1894

ABE...63-1991      1.37-1982           1922

TTN...62-2006      1.57-1939           1865

GED...68-2006      1.47-1973           1948

RDG...63-1991      1.40-1939           1869

MPO...52-1973      2.19-1983           1901

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR PAZ060>062-070-071-
     101>106.
     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ054-055-
     060>062-101>106.
NJ...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR NJZ007>010-012-013-
     015>019.
DE...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR DEZ001.
MD...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR MDZ008.
     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MDZ008-012-015-
     019-020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GORSE/JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
MARINE...GORSE/JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
HYDROLOGY...
CLIMATE...

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
947 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016

MDZ008-PAZ060>062-101>106-050300-
CECIL-BERKS-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-WESTERN CHESTER-EASTERN CHESTER-
WESTERN MONTGOMERY-EASTERN MONTGOMERY-UPPER BUCKS-LOWER BUCKS-
947 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016

...DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY...
...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST MARYLAND...EAST
CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AND SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.
   DENSE FOG ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.
   DENSE FOG ADVISORY.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A COASTAL STORM LATE MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. WHILE THE SIGNAL FOR A STORM IS THERE IT IS LESS
CERTAIN AT THIS TIME REGARDING THE TRACK AND INTENSITY, WHICH
WILL DETERMINE THE ASSOCIATED IMPACTS FOR OUR REGION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

DEZ001-NJZ007>010-012-015>019-PAZ070-071-050300-
NEW CASTLE-WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-MIDDLESEX-MERCER-SALEM-
GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-
947 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN DELAWARE...CENTRAL
NEW JERSEY...NORTHERN NEW JERSEY...NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY...SOUTHERN
NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A COASTAL STORM LATE MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. WHILE THE SIGNAL FOR A STORM IS THERE IT IS LESS
CERTAIN AT THIS TIME REGARDING THE TRACK AND INTENSITY, WHICH
WILL DETERMINE THE ASSOCIATED IMPACTS FOR OUR REGION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

MDZ012-015-PAZ054-055-050300-
KENT MD-QUEEN ANNES-CARBON-MONROE-
947 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016

...DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST MARYLAND AND
NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   DENSE FOG ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   DENSE FOG ADVISORY.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A COASTAL STORM LATE MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. WHILE THE SIGNAL FOR A STORM IS THERE IT IS LESS
CERTAIN AT THIS TIME REGARDING THE TRACK AND INTENSITY, WHICH
WILL DETERMINE THE ASSOCIATED IMPACTS FOR OUR REGION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NJZ001-050300-
SUSSEX-
947 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN NEW JERSEY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A COASTAL STORM LATE MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. WHILE THE SIGNAL FOR A STORM IS THERE IT IS LESS
CERTAIN AT THIS TIME REGARDING THE TRACK AND INTENSITY, WHICH
WILL DETERMINE THE ASSOCIATED IMPACTS FOR OUR REGION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

DEZ002>004-NJZ014-020>027-050300-
KENT-INLAND SUSSEX-DELAWARE BEACHES-EASTERN MONMOUTH-OCEAN-
CUMBERLAND-ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY-ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-
COASTAL ATLANTIC-COASTAL OCEAN-SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-
947 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL DELAWARE...SOUTHERN
DELAWARE...CENTRAL NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

SOME RAIN SHOULD CHANGE TO SNOW BEFORE ENDING THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY MORNING, WHICH COULD RESULT IN LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AND
LOCALLY SLIPPERY CONDITIONS.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A COASTAL STORM LATE MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. WHILE THE SIGNAL FOR A STORM IS THERE IT IS LESS
CERTAIN AT THIS TIME REGARDING THE TRACK AND INTENSITY, WHICH
WILL DETERMINE THE ASSOCIATED IMPACTS FOR OUR REGION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NJZ013-050300-
WESTERN MONMOUTH-
947 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NEW JERSEY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A COASTAL STORM LATE MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. WHILE THE SIGNAL FOR A STORM IS THERE IT IS LESS CERTAIN
AT THIS TIME REGARDING THE TRACK AND INTENSITY, WHICH WILL
DETERMINE THE ASSOCIATED IMPACTS FOR OUR REGION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

MDZ019-020-050300-
TALBOT-CAROLINE-
947 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016

...DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST MARYLAND.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   DENSE FOG ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   DENSE FOG ADVISORY.

SOME RAIN SHOULD CHANGE TO SNOW BEFORE ENDING THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY MORNING, WHICH COULD RESULT IN LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AND
LOCALLY SLIPPERY CONDITIONS.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A COASTAL STORM LATE MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. WHILE THE SIGNAL FOR A STORM IS THERE IT IS LESS
CERTAIN AT THIS TIME REGARDING THE TRACK AND INTENSITY, WHICH
WILL DETERMINE THE ASSOCIATED IMPACTS FOR OUR REGION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ANZ430-431-450>455-050300-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS NORTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS SOUTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE EGG INLET TO GREAT EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM GREAT EGG INLET TO CAPE MAY NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE MAY NJ TO CAPE HENLOPEN DE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE HENLOPEN TO FENWICK ISLAND DE OUT 20 NM-
947 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS AND
DELAWARE BAY WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH THE
POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT OF A COASTAL STORM.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
432 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016

DEZ001>004-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ001-007>010-012>027-PAZ054-
055-060>062-070-071-101>106-040000-
NEW CASTLE-KENT-INLAND SUSSEX-DELAWARE BEACHES-CECIL-KENT MD-
QUEEN ANNES-TALBOT-CAROLINE-SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-
SOMERSET-MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH-EASTERN MONMOUTH-MERCER-SALEM-
GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-OCEAN-CUMBERLAND-
ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY-ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-COASTAL ATLANTIC-
COASTAL OCEAN-SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-CARBON-MONROE-BERKS-LEHIGH-
NORTHAMPTON-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-WESTERN CHESTER-EASTERN CHESTER-
WESTERN MONTGOMERY-EASTERN MONTGOMERY-UPPER BUCKS-LOWER BUCKS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WILMINGTON...DOVER...GEORGETOWN...
REHOBOTH BEACH...ELKTON...CHESTERTOWN...CENTREVILLE...EASTON...
DENTON...NEWTON...WASHINGTON...MORRISTOWN...FLEMINGTON...
SOMERVILLE...NEW BRUNSWICK...FREEHOLD...SANDY HOOK...TRENTON...
PENNSVILLE...GLASSBORO...CAMDEN...CHERRY HILL...MOORESTOWN...
MOUNT HOLLY...JACKSON...MILLVILLE...HAMMONTON...
CAPE MAY COURT HOUSE...OCEAN CITY...ATLANTIC CITY...
LONG BEACH ISLAND...WHARTON STATE FOREST...JIM THORPE...
STROUDSBURG...READING...ALLENTOWN...BETHLEHEM...MEDIA...
PHILADELPHIA...HONEY BROOK...OXFORD...WEST CHESTER...
KENNETT SQUARE...COLLEGEVILLE...POTTSTOWN...NORRISTOWN...
LANSDALE...CHALFONT...PERKASIE...MORRISVILLE...DOYLESTOWN
432 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016

...PATCHY DENSE FOG THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...

PATCHY DENSE FOG IS EXPECTED WITH AND BEHIND THE RAIN THAT IS
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. VISIBILITY BELOW ONE HALF MILE AT TIMES
WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE THE RAIN IS FALLING
ON TOP OF A SNOWPACK.

MOTORISTS ARE URGED TO EXERCISE CAUTION FOR RAPIDLY CHANGING
VISIBILITIES. IF YOU ENCOUNTER FOG, REDUCE SPEED, ALLOW EXTRA
FOLLOWING DISTANCE FROM THE VEHICLE IN FRONT OF YOU, AND USE LOW
BEAM HEADLIGHTS.

JOHNSON

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
648 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016

DEZ001>004-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ001-007>010-012>027-PAZ054-
055-060>062-070-071-101>106-040300-
NEW CASTLE-KENT-INLAND SUSSEX-DELAWARE BEACHES-CECIL-KENT MD-
QUEEN ANNES-TALBOT-CAROLINE-SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-
SOMERSET-MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH-EASTERN MONMOUTH-MERCER-SALEM-
GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-OCEAN-CUMBERLAND-
ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY-ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-COASTAL ATLANTIC-
COASTAL OCEAN-SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-CARBON-MONROE-BERKS-LEHIGH-
NORTHAMPTON-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-WESTERN CHESTER-EASTERN CHESTER-
WESTERN MONTGOMERY-EASTERN MONTGOMERY-UPPER BUCKS-LOWER BUCKS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WILMINGTON...DOVER...GEORGETOWN...
REHOBOTH BEACH...ELKTON...CHESTERTOWN...CENTREVILLE...EASTON...
DENTON...NEWTON...WASHINGTON...MORRISTOWN...FLEMINGTON...
SOMERVILLE...NEW BRUNSWICK...FREEHOLD...SANDY HOOK...TRENTON...
PENNSVILLE...GLASSBORO...CAMDEN...CHERRY HILL...MOORESTOWN...
MOUNT HOLLY...JACKSON...MILLVILLE...HAMMONTON...
CAPE MAY COURT HOUSE...OCEAN CITY...ATLANTIC CITY...
LONG BEACH ISLAND...WHARTON STATE FOREST...JIM THORPE...
STROUDSBURG...READING...ALLENTOWN...BETHLEHEM...MEDIA...
PHILADELPHIA...HONEY BROOK...OXFORD...WEST CHESTER...
KENNETT SQUARE...COLLEGEVILLE...POTTSTOWN...NORRISTOWN...
LANSDALE...CHALFONT...PERKASIE...MORRISVILLE...DOYLESTOWN
648 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016

...PATCHY DENSE FOG THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...

PATCHY DENSE FOG IS EXPECTED WITH AND BEHIND THE RAIN THAT IS
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. VISIBILITY BELOW ONE HALF MILE AT TIMES
WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE THE RAIN HAS FALLEN ON
TOP OF A SNOWPACK.

MOTORISTS ARE URGED TO EXERCISE CAUTION FOR RAPIDLY CHANGING
VISIBILITIES. IF YOU ENCOUNTER FOG, REDUCE SPEED, ALLOW EXTRA
FOLLOWING DISTANCE FROM THE VEHICLE IN FRONT OF YOU, AND USE LOW
BEAM HEADLIGHTS.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
944 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016

DEZ001>004-NJZ001-007>010-012>027-PAZ070-071-040600-
NEW CASTLE-KENT-INLAND SUSSEX-DELAWARE BEACHES-SUSSEX-WARREN-
MORRIS-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH-
EASTERN MONMOUTH-MERCER-SALEM-GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-
NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-OCEAN-CUMBERLAND-ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY-
ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-COASTAL ATLANTIC-COASTAL OCEAN-
SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WILMINGTON...DOVER...GEORGETOWN...
REHOBOTH BEACH...NEWTON...WASHINGTON...MORRISTOWN...FLEMINGTON...
SOMERVILLE...NEW BRUNSWICK...FREEHOLD...SANDY HOOK...TRENTON...
PENNSVILLE...GLASSBORO...CAMDEN...CHERRY HILL...MOORESTOWN...
MOUNT HOLLY...JACKSON...MILLVILLE...HAMMONTON...
CAPE MAY COURT HOUSE...OCEAN CITY...ATLANTIC CITY...
LONG BEACH ISLAND...WHARTON STATE FOREST...MEDIA...PHILADELPHIA
944 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016

...PATCHY DENSE FOG THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...

PATCHY DENSE FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NOW THAT THE RAIN HAS
ENDED ACROSS THE AREA. VISIBILITY BELOW ONE HALF MILE AT TIMES
WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE THE RAIN HAS FALLEN
ON TOP OF A SNOWPACK.

MOTORISTS ARE URGED TO EXERCISE CAUTION FOR RAPIDLY CHANGING
VISIBILITIES. IF YOU ENCOUNTER FOG, REDUCE SPEED, ALLOW EXTRA
FOLLOWING DISTANCE FROM THE VEHICLE IN FRONT OF YOU, AND USE LOW
BEAM HEADLIGHTS.