Alert archive / Kentucky / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2016

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 39, NWS Paducah, KY

April 27, 2016Caldwell County, Crittenden County, Lyon County, Kentucky

NWS Paducah, KY issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Apr 27, 2016, 4:58 PM CDT for Caldwell County, Crittenden County, Lyon County, Kentucky. It was in force for 32 min. 1 report came from inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued, with what was reported inside it.

The facts

Issued: Apr 27, 2016, 4:58 PM CDT (21:58 UTC)
Expired: Apr 27, 2016, 5:30 PM CDT
In force: 32 min
Issued by: NWS Paducah, KY
Area: Storm-based polygon
Tornado: Possible
Hail: 0.75 in
Wind: 80.0 mph

Counties Caldwell County, KY, Crittenden County, KY, Lyon County, KY

The radar

The Paducah radar (KPAH), 63 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:01 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What was reported inside it

Time	Report	Where	Remark
Apr 27, 5:15 PM CDT	FUNNEL CLOUD	5 Nw Princeton, KY

Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

Nashville Metro, TN (KBNA), launched 12:00Z, 10.0 hours before the alert went out and 172 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 669 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -79 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 828 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 18 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 122 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 166 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 1.5

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

153 
WUUS53 KPAH 272158
SVRPAH
KYC033-055-143-272230-
/O.NEW.KPAH.SV.W.0039.160427T2158Z-160427T2230Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
458 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PADUCAH HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  CENTRAL CALDWELL COUNTY IN WESTERN KENTUCKY...
  NORTHERN LYON COUNTY IN WESTERN KENTUCKY...
  SOUTHEASTERN CRITTENDEN COUNTY IN WESTERN KENTUCKY...

* UNTIL 530 PM CDT

* AT 457 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER EDDYVILLE...
  MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

  THIS IS A VERY DANGEROUS STORM. 

  HAZARD...80 MPH WIND GUSTS. 

  SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

  IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT 
           SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE HEAVILY DAMAGED. EXPECT 
           CONSIDERABLE DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS...AND VEHICLES. 
           EXTENSIVE TREE DAMAGE AND POWER OUTAGES ARE LIKELY. 

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  PRINCETON...EDDYVILLE...FARMERSVILLE...CRESWELL...KUTTAWA...FREDONIA AND
  DYCUSBURG.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 3699 8810 3714 8820 3715 8819 3717 8819
      3735 8794 3711 8775
TIME...MOT...LOC 2157Z 232DEG 34KT 3704 8811 

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...80MPH
 
$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Paducah, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Apr 27, 2:44 PM CDT, 2 hours 14 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Apr 27, 2:44 PM CDT, 2 hours 14 minutes before

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
244 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 244 PM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016

Models still indicate showers and thunderstorms will be developing
by late this afternoon and will continue into this evening as an
area of low pressure surges out ahead of the approaching cold
front. Not sure of how widespread the convective activity will be,
but for now will go with high chance west to likely pops east late
today into this evening, and make some adjustments as things
develop. Showers and storms should be ending along and west of
the Mississippi River by around midnight, and across the rest of
the PAH forecast area by daybreak as the cold front pushes east of
our region Thursday morning. ECMWF is a little slower with the
cold front, but all the models in general have been a little off
in the timing with this system, so will just go dry after 12z
Thursday for now and make adjustments as needed.

We should see a brief break in our unsettled weather pattern
Thursday into Thursday night as a weak upper level ridge slides
across the area. By 12z Friday, models show a surface low over
the Southern Plains and a warm front lifting northward toward our
region. ECMWF and GFS are in good agreement spreading some
showers and storms into southwest portions of the PAH forecast
area by Friday afternoon, with showers and storms spreading
northeast across our entire region Friday night. Went with chance
pops for our southwest on Friday, the likely southwest to good
chance northeast for Friday night.

It will remain warm into tonight, and the air behind the cold
front is not much cooler than our current air mass, so
temperatures will only drop back a few degrees for Thursday into
Friday night.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 244 PM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016

At the beginning of the period, a complex pattern over the west US
will be characterized by a couple of lows over the Intermountain
West and Plains. A warm front will be in the vicinity. Will maintain
high PoPs for convection Saturday through Saturday night as energy
ejects ENE across the region from the trof to our west. PoPs for
convection will linger into Sunday. For the Monday through Wednesday
time frame, confidence lowers considerably with respect to the
evolution of the mid tropospheric flow pattern. Will leave a slight
chance of showers in for Tuesday/Wednesday as multiple solutions
suggest the chance. Other periods will be dry for now. However,
there will likely be adjustments to minimal PoP chances. Used a
blend of operational and ensemble MOS with our existing numbers for
temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 244 PM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016

Shra and Tsra are expected to develop through 00z across the TAF
sites, then taper off from west to east from 02z to 06z. Shra and
tsra are still possible after 06z due to a passing cold front,
but chances are too low to include for now. MVFR conditions are
likely with storms, VFR conditions are expected away from showers
and storms. Winds will be from the southeast to south at 8 to 12
kts with some higher gusts possible into this evening, becoming
southwest around 5 kts during the overnight. Gusty winds and hail
will be possible with stronger storms.

&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...RST
LONG TERM...CN
AVIATION...RST

Hazardous weather outlook, Apr 27, 3:02 AM CDT, 13 hours 56 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
302 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-281000-
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION-JOHNSON-POPE-
HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-
WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-
LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-
UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-
RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
302 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS TODAY, PARTICULARLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, ACROSS THE BULK OF THE QUAD STATE REGION.
DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL ARE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER
HAZARDS EXPECTED, BUT ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. HEAVY
RAIN AND LIGHTNING WILL POSE ADDITIONAL HAZARDOUS THREATS WITH
STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST THIS WEEKEND AND MAY INCLUDE
HEAVY RAIN AND SEVERE WEATHER HAZARDS AS WELL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS ANTICIPATED LATER TODAY.

In the hours before

Local storm report, Apr 27, 4:25 PM CDT, 33 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
425 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0415 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     1 W MORTONS GAP         37.24N 87.49W
04/27/2016                   HOPKINS            KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

            JUST WEST OF MORTONS GAP

&&

RST

Local storm report, Apr 27, 4:34 PM CDT, 24 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
434 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0432 PM     HAIL             SMITHLAND               37.14N 88.40W
04/27/2016  E0.75 INCH       LIVINGSTON         KY   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

BP2

Special weather statement, Apr 27, 4:35 PM CDT, 23 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
435 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

KYZ008-272215-
MARSHALL KY-
435 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL MARSHALL COUNTY UNTIL 515
PM CDT...

AT 435 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
BENTON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BENTON AND CALVERT CITY.

LAT...LON 3694 8847 3706 8833 3698 8824 3697 8823
      3694 8819 3686 8835
TIME...MOT...LOC 2135Z 217DEG 22KT 3692 8836

Local storm report, Apr 27, 4:36 PM CDT, 22 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
436 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0410 PM     TSTM WND DMG     MAYFIELD                36.74N 88.65W
04/27/2016                   GRAVES             KY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            2 TREES DOWN

&&

BP2

Local storm report, Apr 27, 4:58 PM CDT, 0 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
458 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0447 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     3 NW GREENVILLE         37.24N 87.22W
04/27/2016                   MUHLENBERG         KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

            CANNOT SEE WHETHER REACHING THE GROUND DUE TO TREES

&&

BP2

The office that day

Everything else NWS Paducah, KY issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Apr 26, 7:14 PM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	PAH	Daviess	3 hr
Apr 27, 9:14 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	PAH	Caldwell, Calloway, Christian, Crittenden, Daviess, Henderson and 10 more	61 min
Apr 27, 4:03 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	Crittenden	27 min
Apr 27, 4:19 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	PAH	Hopkins, Muhlenberg	26 min
Apr 27, 4:33 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	Crittenden, Livingston	27 min
Apr 27, 4:35 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	PAH	Marshall	40 min
Apr 27, 4:36 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	PAH	Muhlenberg	24 min
Apr 27, 4:40 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	Livingston, Lyon, Marshall	35 min
Apr 27, 4:45 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	PAH	Hopkins, Muhlenberg	30 min
Apr 27, 4:52 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	PAH	Hopkins, Webster	23 min
Apr 27, 4:53 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	Crittenden, Union, Webster	37 min
Apr 27, 4:55 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	Crittenden	20 min
Apr 27, 4:57 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	PAH	Crittenden, Livingston, Lyon, Marshall	3 hr
Apr 27, 5:02 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	PAH	Muhlenberg	28 min
Apr 27, 5:05 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	Henderson, Union, Webster	25 min
Apr 27, 5:15 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	PAH	McLean, Webster	30 min
Apr 27, 5:28 PM CDT	Areal Flood Warning	PAH	Muhlenberg	62 min
Apr 27, 5:32 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	PAH	Henderson, Union, Webster	3 hr
Apr 27, 6:00 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	PAH	Hopkins, McLean	15 min
Apr 27, 6:10 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	PAH	Daviess, McLean	20 min
Apr 27, 6:14 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	PAH	Daviess, McLean	3 hr
Apr 27, 6:17 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	PAH	Daviess, McLean	13 min
Apr 27, 6:31 PM CDT	Areal Flood Warning	PAH	Hopkins	89 min
Apr 27, 6:33 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	PAH	Daviess	12 min
Apr 27, 6:45 PM CDT	Tornado Warning Tornado observed	PAH	Daviess	30 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Kentucky, 2016 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.