Severe Thunderstorm Warning 101, NWS Paducah, KY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
110 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 108 PM CDT Wed May 11 2016

The old boundary left over from last night's convection runs from
near KMVN to just south of KOWB and is likely to be a focus for
thunderstorm development. Meanwhile, a line of thunderstorms
moving into the KSTL metro area will push eastward into northern
portions of southern Illinois and eventually intersect the old
boundary. A severe thunderstorm watch has been issued until 00Z
for our northern 8 counties of southern Illinois.

The flow aloft is rather weak, so individual storms should be
pulsy, but the amount of instability available may allow them to
briefly reach severe levels with damaging winds and large hail
possible. However, the line moving out of KSTL may develop a cold
pool, which could lead to a larger-scale damaging wind threat in
the Watch area.

After sunset, loss of diurnal fuel and warm sector lifting north,
should see more widely scattered/less amplified cells...at least
until late tonight-early tmrw, when cold front makes approach.
Pinwheel jet energy will interact during daytime hours tmrw, and
reinitiate storm/svr chances, slgt risk shifting eastward across
remainder of fa.

Cold fropa occurs tmrw evening, and convection chances end with
it. Thu night thru Fri then looking cooler/drier per post frontal
airmass. Warm/soupy before.

Troffing Ohio valley long wave will bring a smallish
chance of pcpn in again Friday night, as another piece of energy
rounds base of trof. While instability parameters and moisture are
lacking, nw flow/upper pva inducement may lead to a clap of
thunder or at least its mention in forecast per collab pic.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 1256 PM CDT Wed May 11 2016

Long term pattern transition will bring some changes to the
extended. Surface High pressure under nwlys aloft yield a still
cooler/drier Saturday. But long range modeling of height falls out
west, combined with transitioning Great Lakes Low (pattern
change), mean upper flow will be backing and becoming increasingly
active with time for Mid Ms Valley.

We'll see pops enter forecast southwest to northeast by Sunday,
though we'll lay off thunder mention til better/deeper
destabilization occurs Sunday night into Monday.

Monday-Wednesday then looks like an active/wet pattern, as mean
southwest U.S. trof shoots pieces of energy across southern Plains
and lower to mid Ms valley with time. Pops ramp up to high chance
or likely cats thru this period with several periods of
showers/storms and potentially decent QPF setting up in addition
to strong/possibly svr storm chances.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1256 PM CDT Wed May 11 2016

Conditional forecast of Thunderstorms is best at KEVV and KOWB,
but not so much so farther west. A cold front will approach the
area near the end of the forecast, and there is a fairly strong
signal for IFR/LIFR ceilings to develop ahead of it, possibly with
some fog as well.

&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
340 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2016

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-121000-
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION-JOHNSON-POPE-
HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-
WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-
LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-
UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-
RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
340 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL PUSH EASTWARD ALONG THE I-64
CORRIDOR OF SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND SOUTHWEST INDIANA THIS
AFTERNOON. VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...TORRENTIAL
RAINS...AND EVEN ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS. OTHER STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY MOVE EASTWARD INTO
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHERN ILLINOIS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERNS WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

MORE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE REGION
LATER TONIGHT. AT THIS TIME...SEVERE WEATHER CANNOT BE RULED
OUT...BUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY CREATE SOME FLOODING
ISSUES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED HEAVY RAINS LAST NIGHT
AND THIS AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY. A FEW SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
WILL BE POSSIBLE PRIMARILY OVER WEST KENTUCKY IN THE AFTERNOON.
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING ISSUES WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE.

A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME...SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS TO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY. AT THIS TIME...SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED TO THE NORTH OF A PINCKNEYVILLE
ILLINOIS TO ROCKPORT INDIANA LINE THIS AFTERNOON. ACTIVATION
CANNOT BE RULED OUT FARTHER SOUTH THROUGH SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.

DRS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
926 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2016

KYZ010-011-013-120300-
CRITTENDEN KY-CALDWELL KY-LYON KY-
926 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN CALDWELL...NORTH
CENTRAL LYON AND CENTRAL CRITTENDEN COUNTIES UNTIL 1000 PM CDT...

AT 925 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7
MILES SOUTH OF MARION...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
FARMERSVILLE...CRESWELL...FREDONIA AND FRYER.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT FOR
NORTHWESTERN KENTUCKY. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN
EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT FOR NORTHWESTERN KENTUCKY.

LAT...LON 3709 8813 3723 8817 3741 8791 3740 8790
      3742 8785 3738 8786 3739 8782 3737 8781
      3736 8783 3735 8781 3734 8784 3732 8785
      3730 8782 3732 8782 3732 8780 3730 8781
      3726 8779 3724 8780 3722 8778
TIME...MOT...LOC 0225Z 239DEG 48KT 3722 8807

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
929 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2016

ILZ086-090-120300-
POPE IL-SALINE IL-
929 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN POPE AND
SOUTHEASTERN SALINE COUNTIES UNTIL 1000 PM CDT...

AT 928 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
CARRIERS MILLS...OR 11 MILES SOUTH OF HARRISBURG...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
25 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

THIS STORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF NORTHEASTERN POPE
AND SOUTHEASTERN SALINE COUNTIES.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT FOR
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT
UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT FOR SOUTHERN ILLINOIS.

LAT...LON 3761 8837 3760 8838 3760 8841 3759 8841
      3752 8863 3761 8869 3775 8846
TIME...MOT...LOC 0228Z 243DEG 22KT 3759 8863

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
937 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2016

ILZ080-120315-
PERRY IL-
937 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PERRY COUNTY UNTIL 1015 PM CDT...

AT 937 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
PERCY...OR 10 MILES WEST OF PINCKNEYVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
PINCKNEYVILLE...WILLISVILLE AND CUTLER.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT FOR
SOUTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN
EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT FOR SOUTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS.

LAT...LON 3821 8930 3806 8920 3796 8959 3812 8959
      3822 8942 3822 8936
TIME...MOT...LOC 0237Z 243DEG 21KT 3802 8956

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
952 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2016

ILZ080-084-120345-
PERRY IL-JACKSON IL-
952 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTH CENTRAL JACKSON AND CENTRAL
PERRY COUNTIES UNTIL 1045 PM CDT...

AT 952 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
AVA...OR 13 MILES SOUTHWEST OF PINCKNEYVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30
MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
DU QUOIN...PINCKNEYVILLE...AVA...CAMPBELL HILL AND ST. JOHNS.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT FOR
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT
UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT FOR SOUTHERN ILLINOIS.

LAT...LON 3806 8918 3787 8953 3794 8961 3796 8959
      3821 8942
TIME...MOT...LOC 0252Z 223DEG 24KT 3793 8954

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1046 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2016

ILZ082-120430-
HAMILTON IL-
1046 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL HAMILTON COUNTY UNTIL
1130 PM CDT...

AT 1046 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8
MILES NORTH OF GALATIA...OR 9 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MCLEANSBORO...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MCLEANSBORO.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT FOR
SOUTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN
EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT FOR SOUTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS.

LAT...LON 3801 8838 3791 8860 3794 8865 3800 8867
      3821 8847 3812 8838
TIME...MOT...LOC 0346Z 236DEG 16KT 3796 8862

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1048 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2016

ILZ083-120415-
WHITE IL-
1048 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL WHITE COUNTY UNTIL 1115
PM CDT...

AT 1048 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
CARMI...MOVING EAST AT 55 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CARMI...NORRIS CITY AND MAUNIE.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT FOR
SOUTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN
EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT FOR SOUTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS.

LAT...LON 3825 8816 3811 8803 3805 8803 3805 8804
      3803 8803 3795 8804 3791 8830 3791 8836
      3793 8838 3799 8837
TIME...MOT...LOC 0348Z 251DEG 49KT 3800 8820