Alert archive / Kentucky / River Flood Warnings in 2016

River Flood Warning 42, NWS Paducah, KY

July 8, 2016Christian County, Trigg County, Kentucky

NWS Paducah, KY issued this river flood warning at Jul 8, 2016, 10:38 PM CDT for Christian County, Trigg County, Kentucky. It was in force for 13 hr.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued: Jul 8, 2016, 10:38 PM CDT (03:38 UTC)
Expired: Jul 9, 2016, 11:41 AM CDT
In force: 13 hr
Issued by: NWS Paducah, KY
Area: Storm-based polygon
Flood severity: Minor

Counties Christian County, KY, Trigg County, KY

The radar

The Ft Campbell radar (KHPX), 37 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 03:38 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The river

Written for the forecast point South Fork Little River at Hopkinsville - 68/80 (HLHK2). The gauge peaked at 15.89 ft at Jul 8, 2016, 11:00 PM CDT.

Action stage: 13 ft
Minor stage: 15 ft
Moderate stage: 17 ft
Major stage: 19 ft

This gauge today: stage, forecast and historic crests

Stage from the USGS instantaneous record for site 03437480, one reading an hour, from a day before the product to a day after it ended. Flood stages are today's.

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this river flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Paducah, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before this river flood warning went out at Jul 8, 3:13 PM CDT, 7 hours 25 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 8, 3:13 PM CDT, 7 hours 25 minutes before

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
313 PM CDT FRI JUL 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 313 PM CDT Fri Jul 8 2016

MCV moving across southern MO driving next batch of convection
slated to affect the area this afternoon and evening, mainly the
southern 1/3 to southern 1/2. Airmass very unstable over SEMO, and
destabilizing elsewhere with modest recovery behind this morning's
MCV. Will continue with higher PoPs south, lower north for
convection through the evening, with SVR possible SEMO into far
west KY (see latest SVR watch). Will lower PoPs from north to
south overnight. Will also allow the Flash Flood Watch to continue
with the chance of convection increasing through the evening.

For Saturday through Sunday...Best PoPs will be over the SSW 1/3
to 1/2 of the area. Generally followed a blend of the NAM and
ECMWF for best chance PoPs. Will use persistence for temps as
latest MOS and raw model output line up with existing numbers.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 313 PM CDT Fri Jul 8 2016

The frontal boundary that will linger to our south through the
weekend will lift northeast across the region Monday into Tuesday.
This will give us some diurnally driven convection Monday and
Tuesday, with a lull Monday night with the loss of heating.  By
Tuesday night, the front will be to our northeast, so just a few
showers and thunderstorms may linger in southwest Indiana.

Temperatures will rebound back to seasonal readings behind the
front, and dew points will creep back upward through mid week. This
will lead to heat indices climbing back to around 100 degrees by
Tuesday and especially Wednesday.

Models differ quite a bit on timing of an approaching cold front mid
week.  GFS has an upper level trof moving across the region Tuesday
into Wednesday, and then has the cold front moving toward the region
faster than the ECMWF and Canadian.  In any case, with a hot and
muggy air mass in place across the region,  shower and thunderstorm
chances will gradually increase for mid to late week.  Kept
possibilities in the chance category through the end of the extended
due to timing uncertainties.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 313 PM CDT Fri Jul 8 2016

Scattered shra/tstms are possible late this afternoon into this
evening, with brief MVFR conditions possible with tstm activity.
After mid evening, VFR conditions are expected.  Winds will be west
to northwest at 7 to 12 kts with a few higher gusts through 02z,
then become light.

&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...Flash Flood Watch until 11 PM CDT this evening for ILZ089-090-
     094.

MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...Flash Flood Watch until 11 PM CDT this evening for KYZ005>013-
     016-017-021-022.

&&

Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 8, 10:27 PM CDT, 11 minutes before

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In the hours before

Local storm report, Jul 8, 8:37 PM CDT, 2 hours 1 minute before

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Local storm report, Jul 8, 8:44 PM CDT, 1 hour 54 minutes before

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Local storm report, Jul 8, 9:14 PM CDT, 1 hour 24 minutes before

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Local storm report, Jul 8, 9:15 PM CDT, 1 hour 23 minutes before

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Local storm report, Jul 8, 9:52 PM CDT, 46 minutes before

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Local storm report, Jul 8, 10:21 PM CDT, 17 minutes before

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The office that day

Everything else NWS Paducah, KY issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jul 8, 7:11 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	Christian, Todd	34 min
Jul 8, 7:24 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	Christian, Trigg	21 min
Jul 8, 7:30 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	Todd	17 min
Jul 8, 7:38 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	Christian	37 min
Jul 8, 7:43 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	Christian, Trigg	17 min
Jul 8, 7:56 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	Todd	35 min
Jul 9, 6:42 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	PAH	Ripley	4 hr

Nearby

River Flood Warnings in Kentucky, 2016 Every river flood warning in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive; the gauge from the NWS water service and the USGS.