Flash Flood Warning 85, NWS Paducah, KY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
629 AM CDT SAT AUG 13 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 303 AM CDT Sat Aug 13 2016

Well, in a nutshell, no major changes with the on-going short
term package from yesterday. The flash flood watch headlines will
remain unchanged in areal coverage, but have decided to extend on
out through the day Monday at this time due to additional heavy
rain concerns on day 3. In fact, we may end up needing to extend
even farther into monday night and Tuesday some areas in later
forecasts.

However, there does remain a bit of uncertainty with regards to
the precise placing and timing of the heaviest precip band. Some
models are trending a bit farther northwest with this band.
However, there has been a tendency for them to go too far north
of the sfc front in the past. Heavier rainfall may tend to track a
bit farther to the southeast along the front where the air is a
bit more unstable and highest PWAT axis may be located. Also,
better overall dynamics (i.e. low level jet/moisture transport)
may exist a bit farther southeast. Thus, will not jump quite yet
on much of a shift compared in the heaviest rain band compared to
ongoing forecast. Of course, time will tell, and some adjustments
may be needed in subsequent forecast packages. What does seem more
certain is that somewhere close is probably gonna being dealing
with record setting amounts of rainfall as we head through the
weekend and into next week.

We generally have rain totals through Monday night running in the
4-8 inch range within the watch box, which covers all of se MO/srn
IL/sw IN and a portion of western KY along the Ohio River. Highest
totals still reside in a swath from se MO into sw and sc IL, with
the "lower" totals along the OH River. Locally higher amounts are
also possible.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 303 AM CDT Sat Aug 13 2016

It is good to see that WPC inserted the model component of the
Canadian into the blended numerical guidance in the extended period.
The ECMWF appears to be the closest with the Canadian (which has
initialized very well with the Gulf Coast low and approaching cold
front this past week). Both models take the current Gulf
Coast/Louisiana closed low, phase it with the eastern side of the
Upper Midwest trough, with similar positions of the closed surface
low along the front near the IL/central IN border by 12z (7 am CDT)
Tuesday. Once that low rockets into the eastern Great Lakes states
by 00z (7 pm CDT Tuesday) Wednesday, the mean progressive tilt
trough axis bisects the WFO PAH forecast area. The ECMWF retrogrades
the mean trough axis slightly as more energy comes down the west
side of the trough axis from the Northern Plains. With a middle to
upper level ridge building in across the Central Plains, am doubtful
of the westward shift of the trough axis.

Although there is greater confidence in the further east movement of
convection depicted by the Canadian through mid-week, a blend of the
ECMWF (which has slightly higher PoPs/Weather further west into the
WFO PAH forecast area) and the lower PoP Canadian model was used to
remain in tolerance with surrounding NWS forecast office
collaboration.  Would not be surprised if the WFO PAH forecast area
is much drier by Wednesday, as the mean trough axis is east of the
WFO PAH forecast area. Have low confidence in the higher PoPs for
next Saturday, given the potential for mesoscale short waves
embedded in the mean trough axis near WFO PAH.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 629 AM CDT Sat Aug 13 2016

Banded line of precipitation will develop across the WFO PAH TAF
sites for the 12z Saturday TAF issuance. Employed vicnity mention
of convection in locations not currently or expecting convection
at the start of the forecast period.

MVFR ceilings will develop in the vicinity of the frontal
boundary, with intermintent intrusions into IFR ceiling category
with scattered thunderstorms in the line. As the frontal boundary
gradually moves through the WFO PAH TAF sites, ceilings will
approach VFR category during the evening and overnight, before
falling down into IFR category behind the frontal boundary after
09z Sunday.

&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...Flash Flood Watch through Monday evening for ILZ075>078-080>094.

MO...Flash Flood Watch through Monday evening for MOZ076-086-087-100-
     107>112-114.

IN...Flash Flood Watch through Monday evening for INZ081-082-085>088.

KY...Flash Flood Watch through Monday evening for KYZ003>005-007-010-
     014-015-018-019.

&&

SHORT TERM...GM
LONG TERM...Smith
AVIATION...Smith

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1036 AM CDT SAT AUG 13 2016

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-141000-
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION-JOHNSON-POPE-
HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-
WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-
LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-
UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-
RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
1036 AM CDT SAT AUG 13 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE AREA. REFER TO THE
WATCH PRODUCT FOR DETAILS. HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING FROM
THUNDERSTORMS IS ANTICIPATED TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. FOR TODAY...THE
AREAS OF CONCERN WILL CONTINUE TO BE ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSOURI INTO
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND SOUTHWEST INDIANA. THE CHANCE WILL SPREAD
SOUTH INTO WEST KENTUCKY BY TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

OFF AND ON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS
WILL BE LIKELY SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA AND
AREAS OF WESTERN KENTUCKY ALONG THE OHIO RIVER. THOSE LOCATIONS
ARE NOW IN A FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. PLEASE SEE
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH PRODUCT FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER HAZARD
TUESDAY. OTHERWISE...GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST ACROSS
THE OUTLOOK AREA DURING THE WEEK. GIVEN THE MARGINAL SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY AVAILABLE...A FEW STORMS MAY APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS
WITH GUSTY WINDS AND MARGINAL HAIL LATE TUESDAY...MAINLY OVER WEST
KENTUCKY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

RELAY REPORTS OF FLASH FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
OFFICE...OR LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
925 AM CDT SAT AUG 13 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0922 AM     FLASH FLOOD      CRAINVILLE              37.75N 89.06W
08/13/2016                   WILLIAMSON         IL   BROADCAST MEDIA

            MAIN STREET JUST NORTH OF ROUTE 13 UNDER 6 INCHES OF
            WATER. MAN HOLE COVER POPPED OFF AND WATER FILING UP INTO
            NEAR BY YARDS.

&&

CTN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1125 AM CDT SAT AUG 13 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1115 AM     FLASH FLOOD      5 SE CARBONDALE         37.67N 89.15W
08/13/2016                   WILLIAMSON         IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            1.5 FT OF WATER ON GIANT CITY RD SOUTH OF CARBONDALE.

&&

DP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1147 AM CDT SAT AUG 13 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1100 AM     HEAVY RAIN       CAPE GIRARDEAU          37.31N 89.55W
08/13/2016  M3.02 INCH       CAPE GIRARDEAU     MO   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            FIRE DEPT REPORTS 3.02 INCHES RAIN 7 AM TO 11 AM

&&

DP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1150 AM CDT SAT AUG 13 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1130 AM     HEAVY RAIN       JACKSON                 37.38N 89.65W
08/13/2016  M4.50 INCH       CAPE GIRARDEAU     MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            4,5 INCHES RAIN SINCE 7 AM IN JACKSON.

&&

DP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1204 PM CDT SAT AUG 13 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1202 PM     FLASH FLOOD      ALTO PASS               37.57N 89.32W
08/13/2016                   UNION              IL   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            BRIDGE OUT AT ALTO PASS AND MARKS LANE. 3.5 INCHES OF
            RAINFALL AT COBDEN AND JUST OVER 5 INCHES AROUND WOLF
            LAKE SINCE THIS MORNING. SEVERAL ROADS WATER COVERED WITH
            CREWS DISPATCHED.

&&

CTN