Flash Flood Warning 79, NWS Paducah, KY

176 
WGUS73 KPAH 131456
FFSPAH

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
956 AM CDT SAT AUG 13 2016

ILC055-077-181-199-MOC031-131645-
/O.CON.KPAH.FF.W.0079.000000T0000Z-160813T1645Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
JACKSON IL-FRANKLIN IL-WILLIAMSON IL-UNION IL-CAPE GIRARDEAU MO-
956 AM CDT SAT AUG 13 2016

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1145 AM CDT FOR
SOUTHEASTERN JACKSON...FRANKLIN...WESTERN WILLIAMSON...UNION AND
NORTHERN CAPE GIRARDEAU COUNTIES...

AT 952 AM CDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS AND LOCAL MEDIA REPORTED
FLASH FLOODING IN THE CRAINVILLE AND CARTERVILLE AREAS. DOPPLER
RADAR ALSO ESTIMATES NEARLY 4 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN IN AN AXIS
FROM JUST EAST OF JACKSON MISSOURI TO ALTO PASS AND MAKANDA AND JUST
SOUTHEAST OF CARBONDALE IN ILLINOIS SINCE YESTERDAY EVENING. 

MORE HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED AND FLASH FLOODING MAY BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD THROUGH LATE MORNING IN THESE AREAS. ROADS HAVE ALREADY
BEEN CLOSED IN THE CRAINVILLE AND CARTERVILLE AREAS.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
CAPE GIRARDEAU...CARBONDALE...MARION...JACKSON...HERRIN...
WEST FRANKFORT...BENTON...CARTERVILLE...ANNA...JOHNSTON CITY...
CHRISTOPHER...JONESBORO...ZEIGLER...DE SOTO...CRAINVILLE...CAMBRIA...
COBDEN...ROYALTON...ENERGY AND HURST.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.
IF YOU ARE IN THE WARNED AREA MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY.
RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG STREAMS AND CREEKS SHOULD TAKE IMMEDIATE
PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY.

&&

LAT...LON 3792 8871 3734 8927 3734 8948 3729 8958
      3729 8980 3806 8899 3806 8870

$$

CN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
629 AM CDT SAT AUG 13 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 303 AM CDT Sat Aug 13 2016

Well, in a nutshell, no major changes with the on-going short
term package from yesterday. The flash flood watch headlines will
remain unchanged in areal coverage, but have decided to extend on
out through the day Monday at this time due to additional heavy
rain concerns on day 3. In fact, we may end up needing to extend
even farther into monday night and Tuesday some areas in later
forecasts.

However, there does remain a bit of uncertainty with regards to
the precise placing and timing of the heaviest precip band. Some
models are trending a bit farther northwest with this band.
However, there has been a tendency for them to go too far north
of the sfc front in the past. Heavier rainfall may tend to track a
bit farther to the southeast along the front where the air is a
bit more unstable and highest PWAT axis may be located. Also,
better overall dynamics (i.e. low level jet/moisture transport)
may exist a bit farther southeast. Thus, will not jump quite yet
on much of a shift compared in the heaviest rain band compared to
ongoing forecast. Of course, time will tell, and some adjustments
may be needed in subsequent forecast packages. What does seem more
certain is that somewhere close is probably gonna being dealing
with record setting amounts of rainfall as we head through the
weekend and into next week.

We generally have rain totals through Monday night running in the
4-8 inch range within the watch box, which covers all of se MO/srn
IL/sw IN and a portion of western KY along the Ohio River. Highest
totals still reside in a swath from se MO into sw and sc IL, with
the "lower" totals along the OH River. Locally higher amounts are
also possible.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 303 AM CDT Sat Aug 13 2016

It is good to see that WPC inserted the model component of the
Canadian into the blended numerical guidance in the extended period.
The ECMWF appears to be the closest with the Canadian (which has
initialized very well with the Gulf Coast low and approaching cold
front this past week). Both models take the current Gulf
Coast/Louisiana closed low, phase it with the eastern side of the
Upper Midwest trough, with similar positions of the closed surface
low along the front near the IL/central IN border by 12z (7 am CDT)
Tuesday. Once that low rockets into the eastern Great Lakes states
by 00z (7 pm CDT Tuesday) Wednesday, the mean progressive tilt
trough axis bisects the WFO PAH forecast area. The ECMWF retrogrades
the mean trough axis slightly as more energy comes down the west
side of the trough axis from the Northern Plains. With a middle to
upper level ridge building in across the Central Plains, am doubtful
of the westward shift of the trough axis.

Although there is greater confidence in the further east movement of
convection depicted by the Canadian through mid-week, a blend of the
ECMWF (which has slightly higher PoPs/Weather further west into the
WFO PAH forecast area) and the lower PoP Canadian model was used to
remain in tolerance with surrounding NWS forecast office
collaboration.  Would not be surprised if the WFO PAH forecast area
is much drier by Wednesday, as the mean trough axis is east of the
WFO PAH forecast area. Have low confidence in the higher PoPs for
next Saturday, given the potential for mesoscale short waves
embedded in the mean trough axis near WFO PAH.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 629 AM CDT Sat Aug 13 2016

Banded line of precipitation will develop across the WFO PAH TAF
sites for the 12z Saturday TAF issuance. Employed vicnity mention
of convection in locations not currently or expecting convection
at the start of the forecast period.

MVFR ceilings will develop in the vicinity of the frontal
boundary, with intermintent intrusions into IFR ceiling category
with scattered thunderstorms in the line. As the frontal boundary
gradually moves through the WFO PAH TAF sites, ceilings will
approach VFR category during the evening and overnight, before
falling down into IFR category behind the frontal boundary after
09z Sunday.

&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...Flash Flood Watch through Monday evening for ILZ075>078-080>094.

MO...Flash Flood Watch through Monday evening for MOZ076-086-087-100-
     107>112-114.

IN...Flash Flood Watch through Monday evening for INZ081-082-085>088.

KY...Flash Flood Watch through Monday evening for KYZ003>005-007-010-
     014-015-018-019.

&&

SHORT TERM...GM
LONG TERM...Smith
AVIATION...Smith

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
423 AM CDT SAT AUG 13 2016

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-141000-
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION-JOHNSON-POPE-
HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-
WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-
LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-
UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-
RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
423 AM CDT SAT AUG 13 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

OFF AND ON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS
WILL BE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA AND
AREAS OF WESTERN KENTUCKY ALONG THE OHIO RIVER. THOSE LOCATIONS
ARE NOW IN A FLASH FLOOD WATCH. PLEASE SEE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
PRODUCT (FFAPAH) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

OFF AND ON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS
WILL BE LIKELY SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA AND
AREAS OF WESTERN KENTUCKY ALONG THE OHIO RIVER. THOSE LOCATIONS
ARE NOW IN A FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. PLEASE SEE
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH PRODUCT (FFAPAH) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER HAZARD
TUESDAY. OTHERWISE...GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST ACROSS
THE OUTLOOK AREA DURING THE WEEK. GIVEN THE MARGINAL SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY AVAILABLE...A FEW STORMS MAY APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS
WITH GUSTY WINDS AND MARGINAL HAIL LATE TUESDAY...MAINLY OVER WEST
KENTUCKY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD BE PREPARED TO RELAY ANY HEAVY RAIN AND/OR FLOODING
REPORTS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS.