Flash Flood Warning 43, NWS Paducah, KY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1226 AM CDT THU JUL 7 2016

.UPDATE...
Updated aviation section for 06z taf issuance

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 342 PM CDT Wed Jul 6 2016

One MCS is a problem, 2 MCSs interacting with one another is
impossible to account for, and the models are definitely having
trouble. Bottom line is that this is a low confidence forecast.

We will have to wait for the current MCV to rain itself out over
the region, which may take well into the evening, but the damaging
winds and severe threat have already pushed east out of our
Kentucky counties. Will cancel remaining Watch 337 shortly.

The upper ridge will expand from the southern Plains eastward
through the southeast states Thursday into Friday. At the surface,
we will have rather strong southwesterly flow through the
period. The 12Z models bring a compact upper storm system eastward
into the western Great Lakes Friday, and this may push a weak
surface boundary southward into our region.

Until the upper ridge begins to builds farther east, we will have
to be concerned with one or more additional MCSs moving southeast
through the region. Most guidance emphasizes the northeast half of
the area, but there is quite a bit of variability in timing and
location through early Friday, so the forecast will need
adjusting once it becomes more obvious.

There is a decent signal for the outflow/cold front to focus
convection across the southern half of the area Friday into Friday
night. Not sure if it should be believed at this point, but we
will have decent chance PoPs down there just in case.

Given the heat and humidity expected and the potential for some
decent westerly flow aloft, severe weather will be a real
possibility with any convection that reaches the area. Hopefully,
we will not see anything quite as nasty as this afternoon.

Forecast heat indices for Thursday and Friday are well above 100,
and even into Advisory territory on Friday. However, given the
uncertainties in the MCS forecast, we will not attempt to issue
an Advisory for either afternoon at this time.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 342 PM CDT Wed Jul 6 2016

The extended forecast period suggests that the WFO PAH forecast area
will remain on the eastern limb of the short amplitude mid/upper
level ridge in the Central U.S.  The preferred GFS/GFS
Ensemble/Canadian guidance indicate that energy breaking off the
Alaskan/Western Canada closed low will ride of the intermountain
region, dampen the Central U.S. ridge and develop and deepen a small
low in Ohio and Tennessee valley. This feature will return moisture
back into the WFO PAH forecast area from the stalled out cold front
that is expected to push through the region on Friday.

Unfortunately, this low will serve as a small scale Omega block,
disrupting upstream flow and generating shortwaves across the area
at least through next Monday, when a larger scale trough will push
into the Plains and Middle Mississippi River Valley.

At this point in time, am concerned that parts of Southeast Missouri
may see excessive rainfall over the weekend. This area will need to
be monitored for flooding potential this weekend.

Otherwise, moderated max/min temperatures downward until next
Wednesday, when minor ridging develops just ahead of the next Upper
Midwest trough and increases thickness and temperatures briefly on
Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1226 AM CDT Thu Jul 7 2016

Large complex of thunderstorms over western KY and southern IL will
gradually weaken as it drifts south and east through the early
morning hours. The tail end of the complex may clip kpah, and this
was handled with vcts in the 06z initial issuance.

The primary concern is the potential formation of widespread ifr
stratus clouds during the early morning. Areas of stratus have
already reached kpah/kowb, and this could become more widespread
overnight. MVFR vsbys in fog will become prevalent before sunrise.

Once low clouds and fog burn off Thursday, the air mass will
destabilize rather quickly. Thunderstorms may again develop in the
afternoon along potential boundaries leftover from overnight
convection. Timing and location is highly uncertain, so used a
prob30 group to account for this activity.

&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...DRS
LONG TERM...Smith
AVIATION...MY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
931 PM CDT WED JUL 6 2016

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-072130-
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION-JOHNSON-POPE-
HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-
WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-
LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-
UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-
RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
931 PM CDT WED JUL 6 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS WILL BE
POSSIBLE TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS AND MUCH OF
WESTERN KENTUCKY. AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED
OUT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

ONE OR MORE COMPLEXES OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST PRIMARILY OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE REGION THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE A CONCERN...ALONG WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND LIGHTINING.

IN THE ABSENCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES MAY
REACH THE 100 TO 105 DEGREE RANGE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

DAILY CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST FOR ALL OR PORTIONS OF
THE REGION SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
LIGHTNING APPEAR TO BE THE PRIMARY CONCERNS AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED AT SOME POINT THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY...MAINLY OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE REGION.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
213 AM CDT THU JUL 07 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0149 AM     FLASH FLOOD      2 S CALVERT CITY        37.00N 88.35W
07/07/2016                   MARSHALL           KY   NWS EMPLOYEE

            STANDING AND FAST FLOWING WATER ALONG NEARBY ROADS AND IN
            YARD

&&

BP2

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
238 AM CDT THU JUL 07 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0100 AM     FLASH FLOOD      VIENNA                  37.41N 88.89W
07/07/2016                   JOHNSON            IL   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            WATER COVERING SOME PORTIONS OF LOCAL ROADS

&&

BP2

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
242 AM CDT THU JUL 07 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0118 AM     FLASH FLOOD      PRINCETON               37.11N 87.88W
07/07/2016                   CALDWELL           KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SEVERAL FEET OF FLOWING WATER COVERING PORTIONS OF
            PARKING LOTS AND BALL FIELDS ALONG HWY 139

&&

BP2

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
256 AM CDT THU JUL 07 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0256 AM     FLASH FLOOD      ELKTON                  36.81N 87.16W
07/07/2016                   TODD               KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

            NORTH FORK OF ELK FORK CREEK IS WELL OUT OF ITS
            BANKS...HAS SURROUNDED A HOME...AND IS INUNDATING
            SURROUNDING FARMLAND

&&

BP2

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
302 AM CDT THU JUL 07 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0301 AM     HEAVY RAIN       2 S CALVERT CITY        37.00N 88.35W
07/07/2016  M5.51 INCH       MARSHALL           KY   NWS EMPLOYEE

            5.51 INCHES IN 3 HOURS

&&

BP2

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
303 AM CDT THU JUL 07 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0230 AM     FLASH FLOOD      CADIZ                   36.87N 87.82W
07/07/2016                   TRIGG              KY   BROADCAST MEDIA

            WATER OVER PORTIONS OF SEVERAL CITY AND COUNTY ROADS

&&

BP2