Flash Flood Warning 42, NWS Paducah, KY

363 
WGUS73 KPAH 070816
FFSPAH

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
316 AM CDT THU JUL 7 2016

ILC127-KYC145-157-070915-
/O.CON.KPAH.FF.W.0042.000000T0000Z-160707T0915Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
MASSAC IL-MARSHALL KY-MCCRACKEN KY-
316 AM CDT THU JUL 7 2016

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 415 AM CDT FOR
SOUTHEASTERN MASSAC...MARSHALL AND SOUTHEASTERN MCCRACKEN COUNTIES...

AT 311 AM CDT...NUMEROUS SOURCES REPORTED FLASH FLOODING IN CALVERT
CITY KENTUCKY. AN OFF DUTY METEOROLOGIST MEASURED ABOUT 5.5
INCHES OF RAIN IN ONLY THREE HOURS AT CALVERT CITY. 

THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO TRAIN SOUTHEAST ACROSS MARSHALL AND
EASTERN MCCRACKEN COUNTIES THROUGH AT LEAST 430 AM. AREAS OF
SOUTHERN MARSHALL COUNTY THAT HAVE NOT YET RECEIVED EXCESSIVE RAIN
WILL EXPERIENCE FLASH FLOODING SHORTLY. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TURN AROUND...DON'T DROWN WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED ROADS. MOST FLOOD
DEATHS OCCUR IN VEHICLES.

&&

LAT...LON 3682 8849 3694 8849 3694 8854 3726 8863
      3716 8849 3707 8850 3708 8857 3707 8857
      3702 8850 3707 8837 3705 8831 3699 8825
      3681 8813 3675 8811 3675 8848

$$

573 
WGUS53 KPAH 070840
FFWPAH
ILC127-KYC145-157-071315-
/O.EXT.KPAH.FF.W.0042.000000T0000Z-160707T1315Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
340 AM CDT THU JUL 7 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PADUCAH HAS EXTENDED THE

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
  SOUTHEASTERN MASSAC COUNTY IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...
  MARSHALL COUNTY IN WESTERN KENTUCKY...
  SOUTHEASTERN MCCRACKEN COUNTY IN WESTERN KENTUCKY...

* UNTIL 815 AM CDT

* AT 336 AM CDT...THERE WERE NUMEROUS REPORTS OF FLASH FLOODING
  ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. MEASURED RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM 5 TO 7
  INCHES IN THREE HOURS HAVE BEEN COMMON ACROSS MARSHALL COUNTY.
  EVACUATIONS ARE COMMENCING. THIS IS A VERY SERIOUS AND LIFE
  THREATENING FLASH FLOOD.  

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TURN AROUND...DON'T DROWN WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED ROADS. MOST FLOOD
DEATHS OCCUR IN VEHICLES.

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODING.

&&

LAT...LON 3682 8849 3694 8849 3694 8854 3726 8863
      3716 8849 3707 8850 3708 8857 3707 8857
      3702 8850 3707 8837 3705 8831 3699 8825
      3681 8813 3675 8811 3675 8848

$$

153 
WGUS73 KPAH 071001
FFSPAH

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
501 AM CDT THU JUL 7 2016

ILC127-071005-
/O.CAN.KPAH.FF.W.0042.000000T0000Z-160707T1315Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
MASSAC IL-
501 AM CDT THU JUL 7 2016

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN MASSAC COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

FLOODING IS NO LONGER EXPECTED TO POSE A THREAT. PLEASE CONTINUE TO
HEED ANY REMAINING ROAD CLOSURES.

LAT...LON 3681 8849 3694 8849 3694 8854 3709 8858
      3707 8857 3702 8850 3702 8847 3704 8844
      3707 8837 3705 8831 3699 8825 3681 8813
      3675 8811 3675 8848

$$

KYC145-157-071315-
/O.CON.KPAH.FF.W.0042.000000T0000Z-160707T1315Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
MARSHALL KY-MCCRACKEN KY-
501 AM CDT THU JUL 7 2016

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 815 AM CDT FOR
MARSHALL AND SOUTHEASTERN MCCRACKEN COUNTIES...

AT 455 AM CDT...MAJOR FLASH FLOODING WAS REPORTED IN MARSHALL
COUNTY. ONE FOOT OF WATER WAS REPORTED OVER THE PURCHASE PARKWAY AT
MILE MARKER 46 NEAR DRAFFENVILLE. ROAD WASHOUTS AND EVACUATIONS HAVE
BEEN REPORTED IN THE COUNTY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS SINCE MIDNIGHT INCLUDE
7.41 INCHES AT THE KENTUCKY MESONET SITE NEAR DRAFFENVILLE. 

RAIN WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
HOWEVER...SOME CREEKS AND STREAMS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE DUE TO THE
ENORMOUS AMOUNT OF RUNOFF THAT IS OCCURRING. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TURN AROUND...DON'T DROWN WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED ROADS. MOST FLOOD
DEATHS OCCUR IN VEHICLES.

MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND NOW. ACT QUICKLY TO PROTECT YOUR LIFE.

&&

LAT...LON 3681 8849 3694 8849 3694 8854 3709 8858
      3707 8857 3702 8850 3702 8847 3704 8844
      3707 8837 3705 8831 3699 8825 3681 8813
      3675 8811 3675 8848

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1226 AM CDT THU JUL 7 2016

.UPDATE...
Updated aviation section for 06z taf issuance

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 342 PM CDT Wed Jul 6 2016

One MCS is a problem, 2 MCSs interacting with one another is
impossible to account for, and the models are definitely having
trouble. Bottom line is that this is a low confidence forecast.

We will have to wait for the current MCV to rain itself out over
the region, which may take well into the evening, but the damaging
winds and severe threat have already pushed east out of our
Kentucky counties. Will cancel remaining Watch 337 shortly.

The upper ridge will expand from the southern Plains eastward
through the southeast states Thursday into Friday. At the surface,
we will have rather strong southwesterly flow through the
period. The 12Z models bring a compact upper storm system eastward
into the western Great Lakes Friday, and this may push a weak
surface boundary southward into our region.

Until the upper ridge begins to builds farther east, we will have
to be concerned with one or more additional MCSs moving southeast
through the region. Most guidance emphasizes the northeast half of
the area, but there is quite a bit of variability in timing and
location through early Friday, so the forecast will need
adjusting once it becomes more obvious.

There is a decent signal for the outflow/cold front to focus
convection across the southern half of the area Friday into Friday
night. Not sure if it should be believed at this point, but we
will have decent chance PoPs down there just in case.

Given the heat and humidity expected and the potential for some
decent westerly flow aloft, severe weather will be a real
possibility with any convection that reaches the area. Hopefully,
we will not see anything quite as nasty as this afternoon.

Forecast heat indices for Thursday and Friday are well above 100,
and even into Advisory territory on Friday. However, given the
uncertainties in the MCS forecast, we will not attempt to issue
an Advisory for either afternoon at this time.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 342 PM CDT Wed Jul 6 2016

The extended forecast period suggests that the WFO PAH forecast area
will remain on the eastern limb of the short amplitude mid/upper
level ridge in the Central U.S.  The preferred GFS/GFS
Ensemble/Canadian guidance indicate that energy breaking off the
Alaskan/Western Canada closed low will ride of the intermountain
region, dampen the Central U.S. ridge and develop and deepen a small
low in Ohio and Tennessee valley. This feature will return moisture
back into the WFO PAH forecast area from the stalled out cold front
that is expected to push through the region on Friday.

Unfortunately, this low will serve as a small scale Omega block,
disrupting upstream flow and generating shortwaves across the area
at least through next Monday, when a larger scale trough will push
into the Plains and Middle Mississippi River Valley.

At this point in time, am concerned that parts of Southeast Missouri
may see excessive rainfall over the weekend. This area will need to
be monitored for flooding potential this weekend.

Otherwise, moderated max/min temperatures downward until next
Wednesday, when minor ridging develops just ahead of the next Upper
Midwest trough and increases thickness and temperatures briefly on
Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1226 AM CDT Thu Jul 7 2016

Large complex of thunderstorms over western KY and southern IL will
gradually weaken as it drifts south and east through the early
morning hours. The tail end of the complex may clip kpah, and this
was handled with vcts in the 06z initial issuance.

The primary concern is the potential formation of widespread ifr
stratus clouds during the early morning. Areas of stratus have
already reached kpah/kowb, and this could become more widespread
overnight. MVFR vsbys in fog will become prevalent before sunrise.

Once low clouds and fog burn off Thursday, the air mass will
destabilize rather quickly. Thunderstorms may again develop in the
afternoon along potential boundaries leftover from overnight
convection. Timing and location is highly uncertain, so used a
prob30 group to account for this activity.

&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...DRS
LONG TERM...Smith
AVIATION...MY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
931 PM CDT WED JUL 6 2016

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-072130-
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION-JOHNSON-POPE-
HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-
WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-
LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-
UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-
RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
931 PM CDT WED JUL 6 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS WILL BE
POSSIBLE TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS AND MUCH OF
WESTERN KENTUCKY. AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED
OUT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

ONE OR MORE COMPLEXES OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST PRIMARILY OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE REGION THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE A CONCERN...ALONG WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND LIGHTINING.

IN THE ABSENCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES MAY
REACH THE 100 TO 105 DEGREE RANGE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

DAILY CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST FOR ALL OR PORTIONS OF
THE REGION SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
LIGHTNING APPEAR TO BE THE PRIMARY CONCERNS AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED AT SOME POINT THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY...MAINLY OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE REGION.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1225 AM CDT THU JUL 07 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1222 AM     FLASH FLOOD      1 SE CRESWELL           37.26N 87.91W
07/07/2016                   CALDWELL           KY   PUBLIC

            PORTIONS OF SHADY GROVE ROAD IMPASSABLE NEAR CRESWELL

&&

BP2

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1227 AM CDT THU JUL 07 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1227 AM     FLASH FLOOD      HOPKINSVILLE            36.85N 87.49W
07/07/2016                   CHRISTIAN          KY   EMERGENCY MNGR

            WIDESPREAD FLOODING THROUGHOUT THE COUNTY

&&

BP2

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1228 AM CDT THU JUL 07 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1200 AM     FLASH FLOOD      6 SW GREENVILLE         37.15N 87.26W
07/07/2016                   MUHLENBERG         KY   EMERGENCY MNGR

            ROADWAYS FLOODING IN NUMEROUS LOCATIONS ACROSS THE COUNTY

&&

BP2

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1231 AM CDT THU JUL 07 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1230 AM     FLASH FLOOD      MADISONVILLE            37.34N 87.51W
07/07/2016                   HOPKINS            KY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            FIRE DEPARTMENT ENROUTE TO PARKWAY PLAZA MALL TO RESCUE
            WOMAN AND CHILD IN VEHICLE

&&

BP2

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1254 AM CDT THU JUL 07 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1237 AM     FLASH FLOOD      1 NE MORTONS GAP        37.25N 87.46W
07/07/2016                   HOPKINS            KY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            WHITE CITY ROAD IMPASSABLE A HALF MILE FROM THE PARKWAY

&&

BP2

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
109 AM CDT THU JUL 07 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0109 AM     FLASH FLOOD      ELKTON                  36.81N 87.16W
07/07/2016                   TODD               KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

            NORTH FORK OF ELK FORK CREEK IS OUT OF ITS BANKS

&&

BP2