Flash Flood Warning 33, NWS Paducah, KY

598 
WGUS73 KPAH 041912
FFSPAH

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
212 PM CDT MON JUL 4 2016

KYC055-042000-
/O.CON.KPAH.FF.W.0033.000000T0000Z-160704T2000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
CRITTENDEN KY-
212 PM CDT MON JUL 4 2016

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 PM CDT FOR
CENTRAL CRITTENDEN COUNTY...

AT 208 PM CDT...ALTHOUGH HEAVY RAIN HAS ENDED OVER CRITTENDEN
COUNTY...LAW ENFORCEMENT IS STILL REPORTING A NUMBER OF ROADS WITH
WATER OVER THEM. LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN IS STILL A POSSIBILITY
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS BUT SHOULD POSE NO ADDITIONAL FLOODING
THREAT. 

TURN AROUND...DON'T DROWN.

LAT...LON 3713 8819 3722 8820 3726 8821 3731 8825
      3748 8793 3746 8794 3741 8793 3740 8790
      3742 8785 3738 8786 3738 8784 3739 8782
      3737 8782 3723 8808 3716 8811 3716 8813

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
308 AM CDT MON JUL 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 308 AM CDT Mon Jul 4 2016

As of 08Z, one band of showers and thunderstorms is trying to
lift northeast across southern Illinois and west Kentucky, while
an MCS approaches southeast Missouri. The overall eastward motion
of the weak MCS will lead to considerable coverage of showers and
storms early this morning, with heavy rainfall the primary
concern.

The big question is how much redevelopment will occur this
afternoon and evening before the pathetic cool frontal wind shift
arrives. We will have a very soupy airmass in place over the
entire area, as the warm front/outflow boundary is expected to
lift back north of the region this afternoon. There should be some
lift with the mid/upper-level trough expected to move through the
region, but it is a bit messy, and there could be some subsidence
behind this morning's impulse. So, it is not a slam dunk that we
will have more than widely scattered convection this afternoon and
evening.

With precipitable waters in the 2.25-2.5" range, heavy rain will
be a major concern again today. The environment with respect to
severe potential does not look any better than yesterday, and may
actually be worse, so any severe weather should be rather limited.
Given that there have been several swaths of 3+" rains in the last
24 hours, have decided to expand the Flash Flood Watch southward
through all of west Kentucky and most of southern Illinois. Also
have extended it to 00Z this evening.

The precipitation should come to an end with the wind shift this
evening, and most of the area should be dry through Tuesday.
Things get muddled heading into Tuesday night and Wednesday, as
most of the 00Z guidance brings a disturbance eastward through the
region. Will have chance pops focused in the east, but could see
it throughout the area.

Heat indices will once again climb over 100 over southeast
Missouri Tuesday, and over most of the region Wednesday.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 308 AM CDT Mon Jul 4 2016

The pattern should eventually amplify. For us, that means a
transition from the southern extent of westerlies to a more
northwesterly flow aloft. The pattern will be unsettled with daily
convective chances expected. It will be hot and humid Thursday and
Friday, with only slight relief over the weekend as a front is
forecast to backdoor the area from the NE. Some strong storms and
heavy rainfall possible. Stayed with blend guidance for temps.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1212 AM CDT Mon Jul 4 2016

WFO PAH TAFs will vary from VFR to periodically MVFR/IFR ceilings
and visibilities through 06z Tuesday...as periodic shortwaves move
through the area. The most pessimistic conditions (mainly cigs) will
prevail north of the Ohio River. Given the low probability of
thunderstorms directly over each TAF site, utilized vicinity
thunderstorms with showers to address variability at each location
in time and space. Behind a warm front, southwesterly winds will
take over after sunrise.

&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...Flash Flood Watch through this evening for ILZ075>078-081>083-
     085>087-089>091-094.

MO...None.
IN...Flash Flood Watch through this evening for INZ081-082-085>088.

KY...Flash Flood Watch through this evening for KYZ001>022.

&&

SHORT TERM...DRS
LONG TERM...CN
AVIATION...DB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
329 AM CDT MON JUL 4 2016

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-051000-
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION-JOHNSON-POPE-
HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-
WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-
LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-
UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-
RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
329 AM CDT MON JUL 4 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY AND THIS EVENING. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE PRIMARY
CONCERN...BUT A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS. A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM FOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST
OF A LINE FROM MT VERNON ILLINOIS TO HICKMAN KENTUCKY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST FOR ALL OR A PORTION OF THE
REGION FROM TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
LIGHTNING WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERNS.

AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL TOP OUT FROM 100 TO 105 OVER
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI TUESDAY...AND OVER THE ENTIRE AREA FROM
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

DRS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1133 AM CDT MON JUL 04 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0915 AM     FLOOD            BENTON                  36.85N 88.36W
07/04/2016                   MARSHALL           KY   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            BENTON CREEK DRIVE WASHED OUT WITH ONLY THE CULVERT LEFT.
            NUMEROUS HOMES WITH FLOODED GARAGES AND BASEMENTS AS A
            RESULT OF HEAVY RAIN SINCE SUNDAY.

1019 AM     FLOOD            3 S BENTON              36.81N 88.36W
07/04/2016                   MARSHALL           KY   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            TOY YORK ROAD CLOSED BETWEEN MAIN STREET AND CHURCH GROVE
            RD DUE TO A WASHED OUT BRIDGE. FROM LAST NIGHTS HEAVY
            RAIN.

&&

RICKS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1139 AM CDT MON JUL 04 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0945 AM     HEAVY RAIN       6 NW POPLAR BLUFF       36.83N 90.48W
07/04/2016  M1.70 INCH       BUTLER             MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

RICKS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1142 AM CDT MON JUL 04 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1045 AM     HEAVY RAIN       1 NE NEWBURGH           37.96N 87.39W
07/04/2016  M3.90 INCH       WARRICK            IN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            RAINFALL TOTAL SINCE SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

RICKS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1144 AM CDT MON JUL 04 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1120 AM     HEAVY RAIN       EAST PRAIRIE            36.78N 89.38W
07/04/2016  M4.72 INCH       MISSISSIPPI        MO   PUBLIC

            RAINFALL TOTAL SINCE SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

RICKS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1157 AM CDT MON JUL 04 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1200 AM     HEAVY RAIN       5 NW CADIZ              36.92N 87.89W
07/04/2016  M0.00 INCH       TRIGG              KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

            OBSERVER REPORTS 4.5 INCHES STORM TOTAL SO FAR, AT
            HURRICANE CREEK ON LAKE BARKLEY.

&&

DP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1201 PM CDT MON JUL 04 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1200 AM     HEAVY RAIN       5 NW CADIZ              36.92N 87.89W
07/04/2016  M4.50 INCH       TRIGG              KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

            OBSERVER REPORTS 4.5 INCHES STORM TOTAL SO FAR. ON
            HURRICANE CREEK, LAKE BARKLEY.

&&

DP