Flash Flood Warning 32, NWS Paducah, KY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
641 PM CDT SUN JUL 3 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 346 PM CDT Sun Jul 3 2016

Given previous meso discussions and updates will keep short term
disccusion a little shorter given current watches, etc...at this
time.

With respect to Flash flood watch for Southern Illinois and
Southwest Indiana Counties along and north of Interstate 64 in
effect through tonight, kept a high resolution and regionally
blended guidance QPF in place. The first convective line of
thunderstorms dropped 0.6-1.0" of rain, however the rain behind it
remains fairly light. Anctipate main heavy rainfall concern will
develop later this evening and overnight and will provide the best
contribution for heavy rain and potential flooding.

The current convection and warnings falling in line with HRRR-CR
approximation of updraft helicity...albeit about 1-1.5 hours
faster than originally forecast. At this point, am concerned with
the convergence of MCV in SEMO, the warm front and convection
further south of the warm front. Could see some more enhanced
helicities/stronger updrafts in the vicinity of these boundaries.

On the mesoscale, migratory waves move along the low amplitude
trough with minor lows embedded in the flow. With the frontal
boundary in the vicninty of the WFO PAH, the lift will support
periods of rain overnight and into Independence day.

As the mean trough axis moves east Monday night into Tuesday, rain
chances should slowly diminish from the west. A disrupted flow
will then ensue in the zonal flow, with southern stream
disturbances expected to shift northeast with time Tuesday night.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 346 PM CDT Sun Jul 3 2016

Average confidence continues in the long term due to differences
in model timing, coverage, etc.

Throughout the long term period models are showing ridging across
the southeast US. The northern periphery of the ridge will waffle
back and forth mainly across the southern sections of our CWA
through the period. Along and north of the ridge is where chances
for precipitation will be greatest,ie better flow aloft, little to
no capping inversion, and better forcing for ascent. Of course south
of that area (under the ridge), there will be little to no chances
for precipitation. As mentioned above, models still not in the best
agreement on the strength and position of this ridge over the
immediate area. The latest model runs continue to show that even
with the variability on the magnitude and position of the ridge, the
areas most susceptible to precipitation in the long term period
would be the northern and northeastern sections of our CWA.

During most of the period the region remains in zonal flow aloft so
there will be periodic upper level disturbances moving through the
flow making it difficult to narrow down the timing of convection,
although in this scenario convective activity tends to be mostly
diurnal.

Friday night into Saturday the flow aloft becomes more west
northwest thus suppressing the ridge a bit farther to the south,
then Saturday night into Sunday pushes a frontal boundary into our
CWA. The lack of ridging and proximity of the frontal boundary
should yield the highest pops area wide from Friday through
Saturday.

With the aforementioned surface boundary remaining north of our area
through much of the period, we stay in the warm sector. This
combined with dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s will yield heat
indices between 100-105 degrees each afternoon from Wednesday
through Saturday.

Temperatures will remain slightly above normal through the period.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 640 PM CDT Sun Jul 3 2016

WFO PAH TAF's will vary from VFR to periodically MVFR/IFR ceilings
and visibilities through 18z Monday...as periodic shortwaves move
through the area. Given the low probability of thunderstorms
directly over each TAF site, utilized vicinity thunderstorms to
address variability at each location in time and space.

&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...Flash Flood Watch through Monday morning for ILZ075>078.

MO...None.
IN...Flash Flood Watch through Monday morning for INZ081-082.

KY...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...Smith

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
748 PM CDT SUN JUL 3 2016

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-041100-
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION-JOHNSON-POPE-
HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-
WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-
LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-
UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-
RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
748 PM CDT SUN JUL 3 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
COVERS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA AND
NORTHWEST KENTUCKY. SOME OF THE STORMS WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN...DANGEROUS LIGHTNING AND POSSIBLY GUSTY WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE REGION AGAIN MONDAY. A FEW SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY CONCERN. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AND MONDAY
EVENING.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER ALL OR PART OF THE OUTLOOK AREA
FROM TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS.

AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL TOP OUT BETWEEN 100 AND 105
DEGREES OVER PORTIONS OF THE REGION FROM TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED AGAIN ON MONDAY.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
740 PM CDT SUN JUL 03 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 PM     HEAVY RAIN       6 W EVANSVILLE          37.98N 87.65W
07/03/2016  M0.70 INCH       VANDERBURGH        IN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            20 MINUTE RAINFALL ACCUMULATION

&&

SMITTY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
744 PM CDT SUN JUL 3 2016

KYZ005-006-008-040130-
MARSHALL KY-GRAVES KY-MCCRACKEN KY-
744 PM CDT SUN JUL 3 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN MARSHALL...
NORTHEASTERN GRAVES AND SOUTHEASTERN MCCRACKEN COUNTIES UNTIL 830 PM
CDT...

AT 744 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
REIDLAND...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BENTON...CALVERT CITY...REIDLAND AND SYMSONIA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT FOR WESTERN
KENTUCKY.

LAT...LON 3694 8862 3702 8850 3702 8848 3703 8845
      3705 8844 3705 8840 3689 8829 3683 8854
TIME...MOT...LOC 0044Z 239DEG 22KT 3694 8849

DB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
858 PM CDT SUN JUL 03 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0854 PM     HEAVY RAIN       CREAL SPRINGS           37.62N 88.84W
07/03/2016  M2.30 INCH       WILLIAMSON         IL   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            4 HOUR RAINFALL ACCUMULATION

&&

SMITTY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1039 PM CDT SUN JUL 03 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1035 PM     HEAVY RAIN       4 N MURRAY              36.67N 88.32W
07/03/2016  M2.53 INCH       CALLOWAY           KY   EMERGENCY MNGR

            RAINFALL RATES ARE 1 TO 3 INCHES PER HOUR. 911 CENTER
            RECEIVED CALL REQUESTING ASSISTANCE AT PARADISE RESORT
            WHERE A CABIN HAS STANDING WATER INSIDE.

&&

SMITTY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1141 PM CDT SUN JUL 03 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1135 PM     FLASH FLOOD      MURRAY                  36.61N 88.32W
07/03/2016                   CALLOWAY           KY   EMERGENCY MNGR

            EMERGENCY MANAGER REPORTS FLASH FLOODING IN THE
            COMMUNITY. SEVERAL STREETS WITH 2 FEET OF WATER. WATER
            MOVING INTO SOME HOMES, EVACUATIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

SMITTY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1142 PM CDT SUN JUL 03 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1135 PM     HEAVY RAIN       4 N MURRAY              36.67N 88.32W
07/03/2016  M3.69 INCH       CALLOWAY           KY   EMERGENCY MNGR

            EVENING RAINFALL ACCUMULATION SO FAR

&&

SMITTY