Special Weather Statement, NWS Norman, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
226 PM CDT FRI AUG 19 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Area of rain will continue to affect parts of Southern Oklahoma
and western North Texas the rest of this afternoon. This activity
is in an area of high PW with heavy rain the main concern.
Elsewhere, isolated/scattered showers/storms will be possible this
afternoon/early evening due to heating of the moist airmass. There
may also be a differential heating boundary from Central into
Southwest OK which may aid in storm development as well.

Additional showers/storms will be likely this evening into
Saturday as a cold front moves across the region and an upper
trough moves across the Plains. Some strong to severe storms will
be possible with this activity this evening. Rain chances will
decrease from north to south across the area Saturday as the front
moves into Texas. Rain chances will remain confined to southern
parts of the fa Saturday night into Sunday. Rain chances will then
spread back north Sunday night into Monday as moisture spreads
back to the north and a mid-level disturbance moves into the
Central Plains. Models show a shortwave moving from the SW U.S.
into the region next week with another front moving across the
area towards the middle of next week. The shortwave and front will
maintain rain chances through late next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  69  81  61  86 /  70  30  10   0
Hobart OK         68  84  62  88 /  60  20  10  10
Wichita Falls TX  71  84  66  88 /  60  60  20  20
Gage OK           63  80  56  87 /  60  10   0   0
Ponca City OK     69  79  58  84 /  70  10   0   0
Durant OK         72  83  66  88 /  60  70  30  20

&&

.OUN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

06/25

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1157 AM CDT FRI AUG 19 2016

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-201015-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-
NOBLE-ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-
BECKHAM-WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-
CLEVELAND-POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-
TILLMAN-COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-
JEFFERSON-CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-
FOARD-WILBARGER-WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
1157 AM CDT FRI AUG 19 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN...
WESTERN...CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

.THUNDERSTORMS...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
WESTERN AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

LOCATION...
THE SLIGHT RISK AREA IS NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM CHEYENNE TO WATONGA
TO PERRY.  A MARGINAL RISK SURROUNDS THE SLIGHT RISK AND INCLUDES
AREAS NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM VERNON...TEXAS TO LAWTON TO NORMAN
AND SEMINOLE.

TIMING...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
THE GREATEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...INCLUDING THE POSSIBILITY OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...WILL BE FROM AROUND 5 PM THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

IMPACTS...THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTAIN HEAVY RAINFALL AND CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN WITH
THESE STORMS. HAIL UP TO QUARTER SIZE IS POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG A COLD
FRONT IN SOUTHERN KANSAS AND NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA BY LATE AFTERNOON.
DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS...ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL FORM
AS THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTHWARD ACROSS OKLAHOMA.

ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE MARGINAL...DECENT DIRECTIONAL
SHEAR AND MODERATE INSTABILITY MAY RESULT IN A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THUNDERSTORM
INTENSITY WILL LIKELY DECREASE BY MIDNIGHT...BUT THE STRONGER STORMS
MAY PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

MEANWHILE...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE
ACROSS NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. VERY HEAVY
RAIN AND SOME FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WITH THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF
A HOLDENVILLE TO ADA TO WICHITA FALLS LINE.

.SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS
NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA SHOULD PREPARE FOR SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS
THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK.
ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES THIS WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK WILL
BE LOW.

GET GRAPHICS AND MORE DETAILS AT WEATHER.GOV/NORMAN...AND FOLLOW
OUR WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE ON TWITTER AND FACEBOOK.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1258 PM CDT FRI AUG 19 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1230 PM     FLASH FLOOD      6 SSW ARCHER CITY       33.51N 98.67W
08/19/2016                   ARCHER             TX   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            WATER FLOWING OVER STATE HIGHWAY 79.

&&

FM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
250 PM CDT FRI AUG 19 2016

OKZ014-021-192015-
ROGER MILLS OK-BECKHAM OK-
250 PM CDT FRI AUG 19 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN ROGER MILLS AND
NORTHWESTERN BECKHAM COUNTIES UNTIL 315 PM CDT...

AT 249 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES NORTHEAST
OF SWEETWATER...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH DIAMETER...
WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH...

LAT...LON 3550 10000 3569 9968 3545 9951 3529 9994
      3538 10000
TIME...MOT...LOC 1949Z 239DEG 25KT 3547 9981

SIX

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
312 PM CDT FRI AUG 19 2016

OKZ007-008-192045-
GRANT OK-KAY OK-
312 PM CDT FRI AUG 19 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN GRANT AND
NORTHWESTERN KAY COUNTIES UNTIL 345 PM CDT...

AT 312 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR DEER CREEK...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS...
WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH...

LAT...LON 3695 9730 3671 9759 3686 9774 3700 9757
      3700 9736
TIME...MOT...LOC 2012Z 233DEG 11KT 3684 9756

SIX