Special Weather Statement, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
542 PM CST MON FEB 29 2016

.DISCUSSION...
THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS....

&&

.AVIATION...
TSRA HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE PAST HOUR OVER THE E PARTS OF THE TX
PANHANDLE...INTO FAR W OK. THESE TSRA ARE EXPECTED TO EXPAND INTO
A STORM CLUSTER THIS EVENING...THEN MOVE E OVERNIGHT. TAF SITES
LIKELY TO BE AFFECTED ARE KCSM...KOKC...AND KOUN. KCSM WILL HAVE A
RISK OF MICROBURST WINDS WITH THE STORMS...ESPECIALLY AS THEY
ARRIVE. FARTHER E...HAIL WILL BECOME THE GREATER RISK. STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO NARROWLY MISS ALL OUR OTHER TAF SITES...EXCEPT
KSPS...WHICH SHOULD REMAIN S OF THE AREA OF ELEVATED CONVECTION.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO N AFTER THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. THE FRONT
SHOULD MOVE FROM THE NW CORNER OF OK AROUND 06Z TO SE OF I-44
AROUND 12Z. N WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY STRONG IN THE MORNING...THEN
DIMINISH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...QUICKLY BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE JUST BEYOND THE RANGE OF THIS FORECAST.

CMS
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 PM CST MON FEB 29 2016/

DISCUSSION...
A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL BE DIGGING ACROSS OUR AREA DURING
THE SHORT TERM... WHICH WILL BOTH PUSH COLD FRONTS THROUGH AS
WELL. THE FIRST WAVE WILL BE ADVANCING TONIGHT... WITH THE COLD
FRONT MOVING INTO NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA BY MIDNIGHT. STEEP MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES LAPSES RATES ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE WILL
DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE ALOFT... WITH NAM MODEL CONSISTENTLY
PROJECTING MUCAPE VALUES FROM 1000-2000 J/KG ACROSS CENTRAL AND
MUCH OF WESTERN AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA... ALONG WITH 40-45 KT WIND
SHEAR VALUES IN THE 0-6 KM LAYER. GULF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE AT THE LOWER LEVELS FROM OUR SOUTHEAST. ALTHOUGH A
TORNADO POTENTIAL WOULD BE RATHER LOW WITH THIS SYSTEM... THE
INTERACTION OF ALL THESE ELEMENTS COULD PRODUCE A CLUSTER OF
STRONG TO A FEW SEVERE SUPERCELLS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. FOR NOW,
THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT WOULD BE UP TO GOLFBALL SIZE HAIL AND 60
MPH GUSTS. WRF & HRRR MODELS BOTH PROJECTS SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS DEVELOPING EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA...
WITH THE CONVECTION DEVELOPING LATE IN THE EVENING AS THE COLD
FRONT BEGINS TO PUSH THROUGH. AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH...
STORM ACTIVITY SHOULD DECREASE ON THE BACK SIDE AS THE DRIER AIR
ADVECTS AND THE ATMOSPHERE STABILIZES.

BY SUNRISE... ANY STORM ACTIVITY WILL BE WELL EAST OF OUR AREA...
AS THE NORTH WINDS WILL ONLY BRING IN SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR. LATEST
MODEL THICKNESS FIELDS KEEP THE REALLY COLD WINTERY AIR WELL UP
IN THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH OUR ENTIRE 7 DAY
FORECAST. FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON... EXPECT ONLY A 10 TO 15 DEGREE
COOLDOWN FROM TODAY... WHICH WILL STILL KEEP THE DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY MARCH. SOUTH SFC
WINDS WILL MAKE A RETURN FOR WEDNESDAY... WITH THE SECOND UPPER
WAVE AND COLD FRONT DIGGING THROUGH FOR THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH THIS
SECOND SYSTEM WILL RESTRICT POPS ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA... THE
WINDS WILL HELP ELEVATE FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE SHORT
RANGE.

UNSEASONABLY WARM AIR WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EXTENDED RANGE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND... WITH ANOTHER WEAK AND DRY COLD FRONT
PASSING THROUGH ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER WAVE MAY PASS THROUGH ON
SUNDAY... BRINGING IN LOW POPS IN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  46  61  36  68 /  40  10   0   0
HOBART OK         45  63  37  71 /  30   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  50  64  38  73 /  10   0   0   0
GAGE OK           38  62  33  73 /  20   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     40  58  33  66 /  30  10   0   0
DURANT OK         57  63  40  66 /  30  20   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

03/23/23

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1145 AM CST MON FEB 29 2016

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-011015-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-
NOBLE-ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-
BECKHAM-WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-
CLEVELAND-POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-
TILLMAN-COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-
JEFFERSON-CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-
FOARD-WILBARGER-WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
1145 AM CST MON FEB 29 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN...
WESTERN...CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THROUGH TONIGHT...

.THUNDERSTORMS...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

LOCATION...
THE SLIGHT RISK IS EAST AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM CHEROKEE... TO
ELK CITY AND HOBART... TO LAWTON AND DUNCAN... TO ATOKA OKLAHOMA.
A MARGINAL RISK SURROUNDS THE SLIGHT RISK AREA.

TIMING...
THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE FROM 9 PM THIS
EVENING TO 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING.

IMPACTS...
LARGE HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS AND WIND GUSTS TO 60
MPH ARE THE MAIN CONCERNS.

.SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT STATEMENT...
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS THE
RISK AREAS SHOULD PREPARE FOR SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS LATER THIS
EVENING INTO EARLY TUESDAY.

DISCUSSION...
MOISTURE WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. A
STORM SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY... BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO PARTS OF THE AREA. INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR ARE
EXPECTED TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TO BE
POSSIBLE. THE PRIMARY CONCERN WILL BE LARGE HAIL BUT STRONG WIND
GUSTS COULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH SOME OF THE STORMS. THE POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL DECREASE TUESDAY MORNING.

.FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON. WARM TEMPERATURES COULD
COMBINE WITH LOW HUMIDITIES AND BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS TO INCREASE
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE SPREAD OF WILDFIRES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.THUNDERSTORMS...
SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE ONGOING IN PARTS OF CENTRAL... SOUTH
CENTRAL... AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA TUESDAY MORNING AS THE STORM
SYSTEM BEGINS TO EXIT THE REGION. THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS
WILL BE LOW.

ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS WEEKEND.

.FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN
THROUGH FRIDAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR NEAR CRITICAL OR CRITICAL
CONDITIONS WILL EXIST TUESDAY... WEDNESDAY... AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.WIND...
STRONG NORTH WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY... ESPECIALLY IN PARTS
OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. STRONG SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL THEN BE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY. WIND GUSTS OVER 40 MPH
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SOME LOCATIONS BOTH DAYS. THE WINDS COULD
MAKE TRAVEL DIFFICULT... ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES.

GET GRAPHICS AND MORE DETAILS AT WEATHER.GOV/NORMAN...AND FOLLOW
OUR WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE ON TWITTER AND FACEBOOK.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
850 PM CST MON FEB 29 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0845 PM     TSTM WND GST     OKARCHE                 35.73N 97.98W
02/29/2016  M58 MPH          CANADIAN           OK   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

RBARNES

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
914 PM CST MON FEB 29 2016

OKZ023-027-035-038-010400-
COMANCHE OK-GRADY OK-CADDO OK-KIOWA OK-
914 PM CST MON FEB 29 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN COMANCHE...WEST
CENTRAL GRADY...SOUTHERN CADDO AND EAST CENTRAL KIOWA COUNTIES UNTIL
1000 PM CST...

AT 912 PM CST...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM
3 MILES EAST OF FORT COBB TO 6 MILES WEST OF BOONE TO 8 MILES EAST OF
COOPERTON...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH DIAMETER...
WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH...

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CHICKASHA...ANADARKO...ELGIN...APACHE...FLETCHER...CYRIL...FORT COBB...
VERDEN...CEMENT...MEDICINE PARK...NORGE...BOONE...MEERS...LAKE LAWTONKA...
LAKE ELLSWORTH...FORT COBB RESERVOIR...NORTHEASTERN FORT SILL...
NINNEKAH...LAVERTY AND STECKER.

LAT...LON 3487 9887 3496 9869 3506 9860 3516 9847
      3508 9784 3481 9804 3470 9838
TIME...MOT...LOC 0312Z 269DEG 38KT 3511 9838 3499 9849 3488 9858 3486
9871

KURTZ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
925 PM CST MON FEB 29 2016

OKZ023-035-010400-
CADDO OK-KIOWA OK-
925 PM CST MON FEB 29 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN CADDO AND
NORTHEASTERN KIOWA COUNTIES UNTIL 1000 PM CST...

AT 923 PM CST...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 7 MILES NORTH OF
COOPERTON...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS...
WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH...

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
COOPERTON.

LAT...LON 3505 9901 3509 9855 3496 9852 3485 9859
      3485 9882 3487 9906
TIME...MOT...LOC 0323Z 268DEG 31KT 3497 9891

KURTZ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
931 PM CST MON FEB 29 2016

OKZ023>030-010415-
OKLAHOMA OK-POTTAWATOMIE OK-CANADIAN OK-GRADY OK-CADDO OK-LINCOLN OK-
MCCLAIN OK-CLEVELAND OK-
931 PM CST MON FEB 29 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR OKLAHOMA...NORTHWESTERN
POTTAWATOMIE...SOUTHEASTERN CANADIAN...NORTHERN GRADY...EAST CENTRAL
CADDO...SOUTHWESTERN LINCOLN...MCCLAIN AND CLEVELAND COUNTIES UNTIL
1015 PM CST...

AT 928 PM CST...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM
NEAR OKLAHOMA CITY TO NEAR MUSTANG TO 3 MILES NORTH OF POCASSET TO 3
MILES NORTH OF VERDEN...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH...

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
OKLAHOMA CITY...NORMAN...SOUTHERN EDMOND...MOORE...MIDWEST CITY...SHAWNEE...
DEL CITY...CHICKASHA...NEWCASTLE...BLANCHARD...ANADARKO...TECUMSEH...
PURCELL...BETHANY...MUSTANG...CHOCTAW...WARR ACRES...THE VILLAGE...NOBLE
AND TUTTLE.

LAT...LON 3555 9678 3520 9693 3495 9721 3488 9744
      3508 9823 3522 9805 3541 9777 3566 9754
TIME...MOT...LOC 0328Z 278DEG 40KT 3559 9753 3540 9771 3524 9796 3513
9808

KURTZ