Severe Thunderstorm Warning 590, NWS Norman, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
633 PM CDT SUN JUL 3 2016

.DISCUSSION...
The 00Z aviation discussion follows....

&&

.AVIATION...
Strong/severe thunderstorms have formed along a weak frontal
system from near KOUN northeast to KTUL and beyond. Additional
storms have begun to form along a surface trough from KOUN
southwest to KSPS and KABI. This assembly of storms is expected to
move slowly toward the southeast (while individual storms mostly
move toward the east).

A layer of stratus is forecast to move south from Kansas into
central and northern Okalhoma, bringing mainly MVFR ceilings,
although a few hours of IFR could happen, especially at KPNC.
There is also a chance that thunderstorms, now over the High
Plains, may affect KSPS-KHBR toward sunrise, but the chance is
rather low.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 337 PM CDT SUN JUL 3 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Severe storms will be possible across central and southern parts
of CWA through at least mid-evening. Along with a primary impact
potential for damaging wind gusts with strongest storms, there
will be a heavy rain and flash flood threat especially this
evening across southeast portions of Oklahoma. Coverage and high
flash flood guidance values, covering an area that has not see
much rain recently, will preclude flood watch.

Convective potential will remain tomorrow mainly across the Red
River Valley near stalled frontal boundary. Again, damaging wind
gusts and heavy rain will be the primary concerns. Each day of the
coming week will see a chance for at least isolated storm activity
as models slower and less aggressive with building ridge. Chances
increase a bit late in the week with a potential week front making
its way south from the Central Plains.

Heat will be a concern this week, with several locations seeing
near and above 105 heat index values this afternoon. No
significant cooling expected for tomorrow and outside of
northwest and west-central Oklahoma, dewpoints are expected to be
as high or higher next few days. This has resulted in a Heat
Advisory for all but far northern and western Oklahoma through
Tuesday. This advisory may be expanded in space/time Tuesday into
mid-week as confidence increases on hotter temperatures spreading
farther north. Drier air over far western Oklahoma will likely
keep those locations with heat indices closer to dry bulb temps.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  72  94  75  96 /  40  10  10  10
Hobart OK         71  98  75 101 /  10  10  10  20
Wichita Falls TX  76  99  78 101 /  30  20  20  10
Gage OK           65  96  71 100 /   0  10  10  20
Ponca City OK     67  91  76  97 /  30   0  10  20
Durant OK         77  93  76  95 /  60  30  10  10

&&

.OUN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Tuesday for OKZ018>020-023>032-
     037>048-050>052.

TX...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Tuesday for TXZ084>090.

&&

06/10/23

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
915 PM CDT SUN JUL 3 2016

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-041000-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-
NOBLE-ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-
BECKHAM-WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-
CLEVELAND-POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-
TILLMAN-COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-
JEFFERSON-CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-
FOARD-WILBARGER-WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
915 PM CDT SUN JUL 3 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN...
WESTERN...CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THROUGH TONIGHT...

.THUNDERSTORMS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM ALONG A SLOW MOVING
COLD FRONT AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.  AREAS ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF SEMINOLE
TO NORMAN TO DUNCAN AND HENRIETTA...TEXAS LINE WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS.  THE STRONGER STORMS WILL PRODUCE WIND GUSTS OVER
50 MPH...SMALL HAIL...AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL.  THE HEAVY RAINFALL MAY
RESULT IN SOME FLOODING.  MOST OF THE RAIN WILL BE CONFINED TO AREAS OF
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.THUNDERSTORMS...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY FOR
PORTIONS OF FAR WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT
PARTS OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. SUPPORTED BY A WEAK SURFACE
LOW...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING EAST...OFF THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE...WILL MOVE INTO FAR WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA
THROUGH THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...AND
HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS. THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WILL LINGER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

.HEAT...
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY INCREASE THIS WEEK. BY
MIDWEEK...HEAT INDICES MAY APPROACH THE 100 TO 107 DEGREE RANGE
ACROSS THE REGION EACH AFTERNOON.

GET GRAPHICS AND MORE DETAILS AT WEATHER.GOV/NORMAN...AND FOLLOW
OUR WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE ON TWITTER AND FACEBOOK.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
813 PM CDT SUN JUL 03 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0721 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 NE NORMAN             35.24N 97.42W
07/03/2016  E70 MPH          CLEVELAND          OK   NWS EMPLOYEE

&&

FM

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