Alert archive / Texas / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2016

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 438, NWS Norman, OK

May 28, 2016Clay County, Texas

NWS Norman, OK issued this severe thunderstorm warning at May 28, 2016, 9:28 PM CDT for Clay County, Texas. It was in force for 33 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: May 28, 2016, 9:28 PM CDT (02:28 UTC)
Expired: May 28, 2016, 10:01 PM CDT
In force: 33 min
Issued by: NWS Norman, OK
Area: Storm-based polygon
Hail: 1.25 in
Wind: 60.0 mph

County Clay County, TX

The radar

The Altus AFB radar (KFDR), 85 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 02:28 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

Fort Worth, TX (KFWD), launched 00:00Z, 2.5 hours before the alert went out and 146 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 3189 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -25 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1372 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 39 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 11 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 112 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.5

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

270 
WUUS54 KOUN 290228
SVROUN
TXC077-290315-
/O.NEW.KOUN.SV.W.0438.160529T0228Z-160529T0315Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
928 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  NORTHERN CLAY COUNTY IN NORTHERN TEXAS...

* UNTIL 1015 PM CDT

* AT 927 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 5 MILES SOUTH OF
  JOLLY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

  HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL. 

  SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

  IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE 
           TO ROOFS...SIDING...AND TREES. 

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  HENRIETTA...DEAN...JOLLY AND NORTHEASTERN LAKE ARROWHEAD. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD TO
FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3377 9842 3381 9842 3402 9830 3398 9815
      3386 9804 3369 9830
TIME...MOT...LOC 0227Z 227DEG 7KT 3379 9831 

HAIL...1.25IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

MAD

1 follow-up statement

614 
WWUS54 KOUN 290301
SVSOUN

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1001 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016

TXC077-290310-
/O.CAN.KOUN.SV.W.0438.000000T0000Z-160529T0315Z/
CLAY TX-
1001 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHERN CLAY COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...
                
THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSE AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY.
THEREFORE THE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.  HOWEVER SMALL HAIL IS
STILL POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

LAT...LON 3377 9842 3381 9842 3402 9830 3398 9815
      3386 9804 3369 9830
TIME...MOT...LOC 0259Z 227DEG 7KT 3383 9825 

$$

MAD

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Norman, OK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at May 28, 7:28 PM CDT, 2 hours earlier.

Area forecast discussion, May 28, 7:28 PM CDT, 2 hours before

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
728 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016

.UPDATE...
Made some minor adjustments to POPS tonight and tomorrow morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Convection has started a bit earlier than most of the Hi Res
models have, so we may see some isolated rain and thunder in
western north Texas before sunset. Overnight and into tomorrow
morning, confidence is low for showers and storms, especially as
Hi Res models show little to no convection. Kept some 30s in the
northwest where the NAM is more aggressive with precipitation.

Day

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 605 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016/

AVIATION...29/00Z TAF ISSUANCE...
VFR conditions are expected to prevail at all sites through the
first six hours of the period. Increasing cloud cover will develop
overnight, from west to east across the region, as a weak upper
level low pressure system moves in from the west. Scattered
thunderstorms may develop through the morning hours; most likely
impacting airfields across portions of western Oklahoma and as far
south as the Red River. In response, ceilings and visibility will
decrease, most likely to MVFR, with periods of IFR possible.

Kurtz

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 325 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Heavy rain potential will be the main impact the next several
days...culminating Tuesday into Wednesday with strong frontal
intrusion and cooler/drier weather thereafter. Two areas to watch
this evening and tonight will be potential for storms to form well
to our southwest and on the high plains of eastern New Mexico.
Both areas...or remnants of...could affect western north Texas and
Oklahoma overnight and Sunday. With moisture return and low
amplitude southern stream s/wvs tomorrow into Monday/Tuesday,
relatively high pops will continue with in the forecast with
daily thunderstorm/MCS activity likely. there are fairly diverse
solutions on details of timing and location of this thunderstorm
activity. this diversity will preclude a flood watch with this
issuance but highest rainfall amounts appear to be most likely
over the southern portions of Oklahoma and western north Texas.
This will be approached each shift and when better consistency in
model output and confidence increases, watches may be issued. with
all of that being said...most widespread and heavy rainfall will
likely be seen Tuesday into Wednesday with slow frontal passage.
Severe weather likely accompany this activity.

Severe weather potential appears to be increasing for Sunday and
Sunday night with possible MCS intrusion across mainly western
Oklahoma. Although some guidance suggest an early timing,
westward extension of dryline and need for diurnal heating to help
with initiation, current thinking is that it will be mainly an
evening and overnight event for much of the CWA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  65  83  65  82 /  20  40  40  40
Hobart OK         65  84  64  83 /  10  50  60  40
Wichita Falls TX  67  86  65  84 /  20  40  60  30
Gage OK           61  82  61  82 /  20  60  40  30
Ponca City OK     63  83  64  81 /  10  50  30  50
Durant OK         68  85  67  83 /  20  20  40  30

&&

.OUN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

14/04

Hazardous weather outlook, May 28, 11:30 AM CDT, 9 hours 58 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1130 AM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-291015-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-
NOBLE-ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-
BECKHAM-WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-
CLEVELAND-POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-
TILLMAN-COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-
JEFFERSON-CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-
FOARD-WILBARGER-WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
1130 AM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN...
WESTERN...CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

.THUNDERSTORMS...
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS ACROSS PARTS OF OKLAHOMA
AND NORTH TEXAS. THE MARGINAL RISK AREA IS SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM
SEYMOUR AND WICHITA FALLS TEXAS...TO WAURIKA...ARDMORE...AND DURANT
OKLAHOMA. A FEW SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...WITH HEAVY RAIN...HAIL...AND STRONG WINDS AS THE
PRIMARY HAZARDS.

.HEAVY RAIN...
HEAVY RAINFALL MAY CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING OVER AND NEAR THE
MARGINAL RISK AREA.

.SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT STATEMENT...
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS THE
RISK AREA SHOULD PREPARE FOR SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.THUNDERSTORMS...
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. THERE IS A
MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. STRONG STORMS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

.HEAVY RAIN...
THERE WILL ALSO BE A CONTINUING CHANCE OF HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THE
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY FROM SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

GET GRAPHICS AND MORE DETAILS AT WEATHER.GOV/NORMAN...AND FOLLOW
OUR WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE ON TWITTER AND FACEBOOK.

In the hours before

Special weather statement, May 28, 7:50 PM CDT, 1 hour 38 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
750 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016

TXZ087-290130-
KNOX TX-
750 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN KNOX COUNTY UNTIL
830 PM CDT...

AT 746 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 10 MILES WEST OF
ROCHESTER...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PING PONG BALLS...
WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH...
MINOR FLOODING IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MONITOR THE SITUATION CLOSELY. BE READY TO ACT QUICKLY IF A WARNING
IS ISSUED OR IF STORMS THREATEN YOU.

&&

LAT...LON 3340 9999 3357 9999 3361 9997 3367 9986
      3347 9961 3340 9965
TIME...MOT...LOC 0046Z 220DEG 23KT 3330 10003

MAD

Special weather statement, May 28, 9:20 PM CDT, 8 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
920 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016

TXZ090-290245-
CLAY TX-
920 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WEST CENTRAL CLAY COUNTY UNTIL
945 PM CDT...

AT 918 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 4 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
JOLLY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH DIAMETER...
WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH...

LAT...LON 3377 9843 3381 9843 3398 9829 3384 9807
      3369 9830
TIME...MOT...LOC 0218Z 226DEG 15KT 3380 9831

MAD

The office that day

Everything else NWS Norman, OK issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
May 28, 7:50 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	OUN	Knox	40 min
May 28, 8:27 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OUN	Baylor, Knox	48 min
May 28, 9:11 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OUN	Archer, Baylor, Knox	49 min
May 28, 9:20 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	OUN	Clay	25 min
May 28, 9:58 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	OUN	Archer, Baylor	32 min
May 28, 10:03 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	OUN	Clay	27 min
May 28, 10:32 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	OUN	Archer	28 min
May 28, 10:37 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OUN	Archer, Wichita	38 min
May 28, 11:08 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	OUN	Clay	37 min
May 28, 11:18 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OUN	Archer, Clay	42 min
May 28, 11:46 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	OUN	Clay	29 min
May 28, 11:49 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OUN	Baylor, Knox	26 min
May 29, 12:02 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	OUN	Archer	28 min
May 29, 12:08 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OUN	Archer	22 min
May 29, 12:27 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OUN	Archer, Baylor	33 min
May 29, 12:30 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	OUN	Archer	45 min
May 29, 12:55 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OUN	Archer, Baylor	50 min
May 29, 1:09 AM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	OUN	Archer, Baylor	3 hr
May 29, 1:21 AM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	OUN	Archer, Baylor	3 hr
May 29, 1:22 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	OUN	Baylor	23 min
May 29, 1:27 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	OUN	Baylor	33 min
May 29, 1:29 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OUN	Archer	46 min
May 29, 1:36 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	OUN	Archer	24 min
May 29, 1:53 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OUN	Archer, Baylor	37 min
May 29, 2:02 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	OUN	Baylor	28 min
May 29, 2:14 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	OUN	Archer	31 min
May 29, 4:08 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	OUN	Foard	37 min
May 29, 4:45 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	OUN	Foard, Hardeman	30 min
May 29, 4:47 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OUN	Foard, Hardeman	43 min
May 29, 5:23 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OUN	Foard, Hardeman	52 min
May 29, 5:29 PM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	OUN	Foard, Hardeman, Wilbarger	3 hr
May 29, 5:31 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OUN	Foard, Hardeman	44 min
May 29, 5:41 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OUN	Foard	49 min
May 29, 5:49 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	OUN	Foard, Hardeman	3 hr
May 29, 6:17 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OUN	Baylor, Foard, Hardeman, Knox, Wilbarger	43 min
May 29, 6:30 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OUN	Baylor, Knox	30 min
May 29, 6:48 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	OUN	Baylor, Foard, Knox, Wilbarger	4 hr
May 29, 6:56 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OUN	Baylor, Foard, Knox, Wilbarger	49 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Texas, 2016 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.