Severe Thunderstorm Warning 436, NWS Norman, OK

880 
WWUS54 KOUN 290153
SVSOUN

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
853 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016

TXC023-275-290215-
/O.CON.KOUN.SV.W.0436.000000T0000Z-160529T0215Z/
KNOX TX-BAYLOR TX-
853 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 915 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN KNOX AND SOUTHWESTERN BAYLOR COUNTIES...

AT 851 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 4 MILES NORTHWEST OF
GOREE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO 
         ROOFS...SIDING...AND TREES. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MUNDAY...GOREE AND BOMARTON. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 3340 9972 3350 9973 3362 9931 3340 9926
TIME...MOT...LOC 0151Z 237DEG 35KT 3352 9956 

HAIL...1.25IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

MAD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
728 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016

.UPDATE...
Made some minor adjustments to POPS tonight and tomorrow morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Convection has started a bit earlier than most of the Hi Res
models have, so we may see some isolated rain and thunder in
western north Texas before sunset. Overnight and into tomorrow
morning, confidence is low for showers and storms, especially as
Hi Res models show little to no convection. Kept some 30s in the
northwest where the NAM is more aggressive with precipitation.

Day

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 605 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016/

AVIATION...29/00Z TAF ISSUANCE...
VFR conditions are expected to prevail at all sites through the
first six hours of the period. Increasing cloud cover will develop
overnight, from west to east across the region, as a weak upper
level low pressure system moves in from the west. Scattered
thunderstorms may develop through the morning hours; most likely
impacting airfields across portions of western Oklahoma and as far
south as the Red River. In response, ceilings and visibility will
decrease, most likely to MVFR, with periods of IFR possible.

Kurtz

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 325 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Heavy rain potential will be the main impact the next several
days...culminating Tuesday into Wednesday with strong frontal
intrusion and cooler/drier weather thereafter. Two areas to watch
this evening and tonight will be potential for storms to form well
to our southwest and on the high plains of eastern New Mexico.
Both areas...or remnants of...could affect western north Texas and
Oklahoma overnight and Sunday. With moisture return and low
amplitude southern stream s/wvs tomorrow into Monday/Tuesday,
relatively high pops will continue with in the forecast with
daily thunderstorm/MCS activity likely. there are fairly diverse
solutions on details of timing and location of this thunderstorm
activity. this diversity will preclude a flood watch with this
issuance but highest rainfall amounts appear to be most likely
over the southern portions of Oklahoma and western north Texas.
This will be approached each shift and when better consistency in
model output and confidence increases, watches may be issued. with
all of that being said...most widespread and heavy rainfall will
likely be seen Tuesday into Wednesday with slow frontal passage.
Severe weather likely accompany this activity.

Severe weather potential appears to be increasing for Sunday and
Sunday night with possible MCS intrusion across mainly western
Oklahoma. Although some guidance suggest an early timing,
westward extension of dryline and need for diurnal heating to help
with initiation, current thinking is that it will be mainly an
evening and overnight event for much of the CWA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  65  83  65  82 /  20  40  40  40
Hobart OK         65  84  64  83 /  10  50  60  40
Wichita Falls TX  67  86  65  84 /  20  40  60  30
Gage OK           61  82  61  82 /  20  60  40  30
Ponca City OK     63  83  64  81 /  10  50  30  50
Durant OK         68  85  67  83 /  20  20  40  30

&&

.OUN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

14/04

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1130 AM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-291015-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-
NOBLE-ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-
BECKHAM-WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-
CLEVELAND-POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-
TILLMAN-COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-
JEFFERSON-CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-
FOARD-WILBARGER-WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
1130 AM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN...
WESTERN...CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

.THUNDERSTORMS...
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS ACROSS PARTS OF OKLAHOMA
AND NORTH TEXAS. THE MARGINAL RISK AREA IS SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM
SEYMOUR AND WICHITA FALLS TEXAS...TO WAURIKA...ARDMORE...AND DURANT
OKLAHOMA. A FEW SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...WITH HEAVY RAIN...HAIL...AND STRONG WINDS AS THE
PRIMARY HAZARDS.

.HEAVY RAIN...
HEAVY RAINFALL MAY CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING OVER AND NEAR THE
MARGINAL RISK AREA.

.SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT STATEMENT...
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS THE
RISK AREA SHOULD PREPARE FOR SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.THUNDERSTORMS...
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. THERE IS A
MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. STRONG STORMS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

.HEAVY RAIN...
THERE WILL ALSO BE A CONTINUING CHANCE OF HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THE
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY FROM SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

GET GRAPHICS AND MORE DETAILS AT WEATHER.GOV/NORMAN...AND FOLLOW
OUR WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE ON TWITTER AND FACEBOOK.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
750 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016

TXZ087-290130-
KNOX TX-
750 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN KNOX COUNTY UNTIL
830 PM CDT...

AT 746 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 10 MILES WEST OF
ROCHESTER...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PING PONG BALLS...
WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH...
MINOR FLOODING IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MONITOR THE SITUATION CLOSELY. BE READY TO ACT QUICKLY IF A WARNING
IS ISSUED OR IF STORMS THREATEN YOU.

&&

LAT...LON 3340 9999 3357 9999 3361 9997 3367 9986
      3347 9961 3340 9965
TIME...MOT...LOC 0046Z 220DEG 23KT 3330 10003

MAD