Severe Thunderstorm Warning 356, NWS Norman, OK

690 
WWUS54 KOUN 242043
SVSOUN

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
343 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016

OKC103-119-242100-
/O.CON.KOUN.SV.W.0356.000000T0000Z-160524T2100Z/
NOBLE OK-PAYNE OK-
343 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN NOBLE AND NORTH CENTRAL PAYNE COUNTIES...

AT 339 PM CDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED NEAR GLENCOE WITH
ANOTHER SEVERE STORM 7 MILES NORTH OF LAKE MCMURTRY. THE STORMS WERE
MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH. WIND DAMAGE HAS OCCURRED SOUTHWEST OF
MORRISON.

HAZARD...TWO INCH HAIL AND 70 MPH WIND GUSTS. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...PEOPLE AND ANIMALS OUTDOORS WILL BE INJURED. EXPECT HAIL 
         DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...WINDOWS...AND VEHICLES. EXPECT 
         CONSIDERABLE TREE DAMAGE. WIND DAMAGE IS ALSO LIKELY TO 
         MOBILE HOMES...ROOFS...AND OUTBUILDINGS. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MORRISON...GLENCOE AND LAKE MCMURTRY. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMAIN ALERT FOR A POSSIBLE TORNADO! TORNADOES CAN DEVELOP QUICKLY
FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. A TORNADO WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR
NORTH CENTRAL PAYNE COUNTY FOR THE AREA NEAR GLENCOE.

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 3633 9703 3633 9692 3625 9692 3624 9682
      3618 9682 3621 9724 3636 9719 3636 9703
TIME...MOT...LOC 2039Z 290DEG 14KT 3625 9695 3628 9715 

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
HAIL...2.00IN
WIND...70MPH
 
$$

..SPEG.

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
242 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.DISCUSSION...
The primary focus of this discussion will be on strong to severe
thunderstorm chances this afternoon and evening.

Currently, 19z surface analysis reveals a weak outflow boundary from
the remnant convection that existed across southern Kansas earlier
this morning. This boundary has slowly pushed into northern
Oklahoma, becoming the focus for scattered thunderstorm development.
At the same time, a dryline continues to strengthen over the
Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles. Ahead of each of these boundaries, a
warm moist boundary layer remains in place; surface dew points are
well into the upper 60s and lower 70s. Additionally, low level
scattered to broken stratus remains in place across the region. The
24/19z sounding is currently coming in and still shows a modest
capping inversion over the region. However, it will continue to
weaken given moisture and heating taking place. In response to the
combination of the focus from the outflow and increased instability,
scattered thunderstorms will continue to fire in north central
Oklahoma. Expect this initial, early afternoon convection to persist
and remain focused in north central Oklahoma. Large damaging hail
will be the primary concern with this activity. However, given the
surface dew points in the low 70s, LCLs are obviously very low, and
although low level and deep layer shear isn't overly impressive, a
strong updraft could easily modify the environment around it and
result in intense rotational updrafts.

Late afternoon into the evening, copious amounts of instability
continue to reside across the region, ahead of the dryline and
outflow boundary. MLCAPE values from the SPC mesoanalysis are well
over 3000 J/Kg, which is probably fairly accurate given the 70 F
surface dewpoints and a quick glance at the not quite finished
24/19z sounding. As mentioned above, deep layer shear through the
mid to late afternoon isn't strong, but with the influence from the
approaching 500mb short wave feature across the Four Corners
(evident on WV), increasing mid-level winds will result in 0-6 Km
shear increasing across the region. Deep layer shear will range
anywhere from 35 to 45 kts ahead of the dryline, across western
Oklahoma. Model soundings from near the intersection of the dryline
and outflow boundary in northwestern Oklahoma reveal enhancement of
low level wind shear through the late afternoon hours, with values 20
to 30 kts, and 0-1 km SRH of 225 to 325 m2/s2. Storms that fire near
the intersection of these two boundaries and even farther south
along the dryline will easily produce strong rotating updrafts,
supportive of large damaging hail and the possibility of tornadoes.
The greatest concern will exist through from late afternoon through
sunset across northwestern Oklahoma. Across northern Oklahoma,
expect isolated to scattered thunderstorms to continue to fire along
the outflow into the evening. Although the tornado potential will be
lower for this activity, it's still possible given any localized
enhancement of low level shear and low lcls, tornado development
remains possible.

Evening and overnight, near or after sunset, with decent 500mb
westerly flow, expect storms to move much more efficiently eastward
than the previous days. Storms will gradually form into one or more
clusters or potentially a line through the mid to late evening. This
remaining convection as it pushes eastward will likely reach central
Oklahoma by 9 to 10 PM, still capable of producing large hail,
damaging winds, locally heavy rainfall, and a low chance of a few
tornadoes. After midnight, scattered thunderstorms will likely
linger across portions of central Oklahoma before finally pushing
eastward through the early morning hours.

Additionally, given the excessive rainfall across southwestern
Oklahoma and western north Texas and possibility of additional
rainfall tonight, although light in many places, will continue to
run with a Flood Watch through 25/12Z.

Active pattern continues through the end of the week. Wednesday
could be a down day, but some recovery over western and southern
Oklahoma may result in a low chance of isolated to scattered
thunderstorms, a few of which may pose a risk for hail to the size
of golf balls. Severe thunderstorm chances will be greatest on
Thursday as a strong dryline will push into western Oklahoma and
western north Texas, with ample shear and instability prevalent.
Strong rotating updrafts are expected, supportive of large damaging
hail, damaging wind gusts, locally heavy rainfall, and tornadoes.

Stay safe and keep up to date with the latest forecasts.

Kurtz

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  68  86  71  84 /  50  20  10  40
Hobart OK         70  91  69  88 /  40  20  10  50
Wichita Falls TX  72  90  72  87 /  20  20  10  50
Gage OK           63  93  62  90 /  50   0   0  30
Ponca City OK     69  89  71  86 /  50  10  10  40
Durant OK         70  84  71  82 /  50  20  20  40

&&

.OUN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for OKZ021>023-027-033>039-
     044-045.

TX...Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for TXZ083>090.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1200 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-251000-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-
NOBLE-ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-
BECKHAM-WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-
CLEVELAND-POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-
TILLMAN-COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-
JEFFERSON-CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-
FOARD-WILBARGER-WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
1200 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN...
WESTERN...CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

.THUNDERSTORMS...
THERE IS A RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS.

LOCATION...
AN ENHANCED RISK IS LOCATED NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM MEDFORD TO
WATONGA...CLINTON...AND HOLLIS OKLAHOMA. A SLIGHT RISK COVERS AN
AREA SOUTH AND EAST OF THE ENHANCED RISK AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM
COALGATE AND TISHOMINGO...TO ARDMORE OKLAHOMA...TO WICHITA FALLS AND
CROWELL TEXAS.

TIMING...
THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE AFTER 4 PM.

IMPACTS...
VERY LARGE HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF BASEBALLS... DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
80 MPH... AND HEAVY RAINFALL THAT COULD CAUSE FLOODING ARE THE MAIN
HAZARDS. A FEW TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE... ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA.

DISCUSSION... A DRYLINE WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE EASTERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM MORNING STORMS AND RAIN OVER
SOUTHERN KANSAS EXTENDS FROM NORTH CENTRAL INTO NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA.
THIS WILL LIKELY MAKE AN IMPACT ON WHERE SEVERE STORMS DEVELOP.
ALONG THE DRY LINE...SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
OR MOVE INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS.
VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS. A
FEW TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY NEAR THE
INTERSECTION OF THE DRYLINE AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IN NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA.

THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP INTO ONE OR MORE CLUSTERS OF STORMS
TONIGHT AND MOVE EAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. IF THIS HAPPENS...
DAMAGING STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS WILL BECOME THE PRINCIPLE HAZARD WITH
LARGE HAIL STILL POSSIBLE. THE TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL DIMINISH BY
EARLY WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS THE
RISK AREAS SHOULD PREPARE FOR SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

.HEAVY RAIN...
HEAVY RAIN THAT COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED OR FLASH FLOODING WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THOSE
LOCATIONS THAT HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN IN THE
LAST COUPLE OF DAYS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

.THUNDERSTORMS...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS AT LEAST PARTS OF THE AREA
EACH DAY. HOWEVER... THURSDAY AND FRIDAY HAVE THE GREATEST
POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER.

.HEAVY RAIN...
HEAVY RAIN THAT COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED OR FLASH FLOODING WILL
ALSO REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS WEEK.

GET GRAPHICS AND MORE DETAILS AT WEATHER.GOV/NORMAN...AND FOLLOW
OUR WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE ON TWITTER AND FACEBOOK.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
108 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016

OKZ007-012-241845-
GRANT OK-GARFIELD OK-
108 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN GRANT AND NORTH
CENTRAL GARFIELD COUNTIES UNTIL 145 PM CDT...

AT 105 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR KREMLIN...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS...
WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH...

LAT...LON 3649 9788 3662 9800 3684 9764 3659 9754
TIME...MOT...LOC 1805Z 237DEG 13KT 3659 9787

WR

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
134 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016

OKZ013-241900-
NOBLE OK-
134 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN NOBLE COUNTY UNTIL
200 PM CDT...

AT 129 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 8 MILES NORTHEAST OF
LUCIEN...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS...
WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH...

LAT...LON 3632 9744 3640 9746 3655 9720 3634 9712
TIME...MOT...LOC 1829Z 249DEG 18KT 3638 9738

..SPEG.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
242 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0200 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 SW CERES              36.43N 97.33W
05/24/2016                   NOBLE              OK   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            WINDS OVERTURNED A SEMI. TIME ESTIMATED FROM
            RADAR.

&&

MAD