Severe Thunderstorm Warning 353, NWS Norman, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
355 AM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.DISCUSSION...
An MCV over Caddo County early this morning will continue to move
east, and associated convection just to its south is expected to
weaken as the morning progresses. Although showers/thunderstorms
could form at almost any time today, it appears that the greatest
chances will be associated once again with dryline convection this
afternoon along the western border of Oklahoma. Additional storms
may form in north-central Oklahoma if outflow from the Kansas MCS
can make it that far south this afternoon or evening.

Chances for showers/thunderstorms will continue throughout the
forecast period, with only a few brief breaks. It is difficult to
accurately time shortwave troughs in the mid/upper flow, so the
confidence in the timing of the rain/storm chances is not
particularly high.

One of the stronger waves appears to pass over Oklahoma on
Thursday, although some models suggest that a second, equally
strong wave, will arrive on Friday. Depending on what actually
happens, it appears that Thursday and Friday could be days of
rather widespread storminess.

That should be followed by a relatively quiet Friday evening and
Saturday, before storm chances resume, and continue through early
next week.

We have elected to retain the Flood Watch unaltered because of the
risk of locally heavy rainfall with any storms that form over the
next day or so. The watch may be able to be canceled early if
storms fail to produce excessive rainfall this evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  82  68  87  71 /  30  50  20  10
Hobart OK         85  69  91  69 /  30  40  10  10
Wichita Falls TX  87  72  90  72 /  20  20  20  10
Gage OK           89  63  94  62 /  40  40  10  10
Ponca City OK     81  69  89  71 /  60  60  20  10
Durant OK         82  70  84  71 /  20  30  10  20

&&

.OUN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for OKZ021>023-027-033>039-
     044-045.

TX...Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for TXZ083>090.

&&

03/23

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1256 AM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-250600-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-
NOBLE-ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-
BECKHAM-WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-
CLEVELAND-POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-
TILLMAN-COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-
JEFFERSON-CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-
FOARD-WILBARGER-WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
1256 AM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN...
WESTERN...CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...OVERNIGHT...

.THUNDERSTORMS...
THERE IS A RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN
AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA... AND ALL OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

LOCATION...
A SLIGHT RISK AREA IS WEST OF A LINE FROM WOODWARD AND
WEATHERFORD... TO LAWTON OKLAHOMA... TO HENRIETTA TEXAS.

TIMING...
THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE THROUGH 5 AM
TUESDAY.

IMPACTS...
HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS UP TO 60
MPH...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE MAIN
CONCERNS.

DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS PARTS OF
THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. SOME OF THE STORMS WILL BE
STRONG TO SEVERE. LARGE HAIL... STRONG WIND GUSTS... AND HEAVY
RAIN LEADING TO LOCALIZED AND FLASH FLOODING ARE THE MAIN
CONCERNS.

THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL DIMINISH AFTER 5 AM BUT
GUSTY WINDS... SMALL HAIL... AND HEAVY RAIN WILL REMAIN A CONCERN.

.SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL SHOULD BE
READY TO PROVIDE SEVERE WEATHER SUPPORT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY THROUGH AT
LEAST FRIDAY OF THIS WEEK. THURSDAY PRESENTS THE GREATEST
POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY WITH
HIGHER CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA ON SUNDAY.
SEVERE STORMS COULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND.

GET GRAPHICS AND MORE DETAILS AT WEATHER.GOV/NORMAN...AND FOLLOW
OUR WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE ON TWITTER AND FACEBOOK.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
156 AM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0145 AM     HAIL             MANITOU                 34.51N 98.98W
05/24/2016  E1.00 INCH       TILLMAN            OK   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

RBARNES

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
224 AM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016

OKZ036-TXZ085-240815-
JACKSON OK-WILBARGER TX-
224 AM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL JACKSON AND
NORTHWESTERN WILBARGER COUNTIES UNTIL 315 AM CDT...

AT 223 AM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 4 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
ELMER...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH DIAMETER...
WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH...
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ALTUS...OLUSTEE...ELMER...HUMPHREYS AND HESS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY AND BE ALERT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

LAT...LON 3463 9936 3463 9922 3445 9922 3445 9923
      3442 9922 3442 9923 3443 9923 3442 9924
      3438 9942 3444 9948
TIME...MOT...LOC 0723Z 235DEG 19KT 3443 9940

03

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
249 AM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016

OKZ038-044-240845-
COMANCHE OK-COTTON OK-
249 AM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN COMANCHE AND
NORTHERN COTTON COUNTIES UNTIL 345 AM CDT...

AT 247 AM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR FAXON...MOVING
EAST AT 20 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS...
WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH...
MINOR FLOODING IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE...
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LAWTON...CACHE...GERONIMO...CHATTANOOGA...FAXON AND SOUTHEASTERN FORT
SILL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY AND BE ALERT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

LAT...LON 3441 9866 3461 9867 3468 9830 3439 9824
TIME...MOT...LOC 0747Z 262DEG 15KT 3449 9858

03

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
337 AM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016

OKZ037-038-044-240915-
COMANCHE OK-COTTON OK-TILLMAN OK-
337 AM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL COMANCHE...
NORTHWESTERN COTTON AND SOUTHEASTERN TILLMAN COUNTIES UNTIL 415 AM
CDT...

AT 336 AM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 5 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
GRANDFIELD...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS...
WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH...
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
GRANDFIELD...CHATTANOOGA...DEVOL...FAXON...LOVELAND AND COOKIETOWN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY AND BE ALERT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

LAT...LON 3414 9877 3414 9879 3416 9881 3421 9892
      3450 9858 3424 9836 3416 9863 3417 9865
      3414 9868 3413 9871 3413 9876
TIME...MOT...LOC 0836Z 246DEG 26KT 3418 9876

03

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
402 AM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016

OKZ027-039-040-045-241000-
GRADY OK-JEFFERSON OK-GARVIN OK-STEPHENS OK-
402 AM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN GRADY...NORTHERN
JEFFERSON...WESTERN GARVIN AND STEPHENS COUNTIES UNTIL 500 AM CDT...

AT 401 AM CDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM
5 MILES SOUTHWEST OF RUSH SPRINGS TO 4 MILES SOUTH OF MARLOW TO 3
MILES NORTH OF COMANCHE TO NEAR WAURIKA LAKE...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH DIAMETER...
WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH...
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
DUNCAN...MARLOW...LINDSAY...COMANCHE...RUSH SPRINGS...BRAY...RINGLING...
VELMA...LOCO...ADDINGTON...CORUM...WAURIKA LAKE...CENTRAL HIGH...EMPIRE
CITY...COX CITY AND ERIN SPRINGS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AND NO WARNINGS ARE ANTICIPATED AT
THIS TIME.

&&

LAT...LON 3426 9813 3440 9814 3458 9810 3478 9808
      3485 9757 3454 9755 3450 9756 3418 9757
TIME...MOT...LOC 0901Z 268DEG 30KT 3473 9804 3459 9795 3442 9795 3427
9809

03

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