Severe Thunderstorm Warning 182, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
829 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

.UPDATE...
LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA THE REST OF THIS EVENING WITH INDIVIDUAL STORMS POSSIBLE EAST
OF THE LINE. STORMS HAVE ENDED IN WESTERN PARTS OF FA AND STORMS
WILL CONTINUE TO END FROM WEST TO EAST. HAVE DONE A QUICK UPDATE
TO ADJUST POPS/WX GRIDS TO BETTER SHOW THE TRENDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 644 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016/

DISCUSSION...
0Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
WIDESPREAD STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH VERY LARGE HAIL... DAMAGING STRAIGHT
LINE WINDS LIKELY. TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. RAIN WILL END FROM
WEST TO EAST LATER THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. CEILINGS WILL IMPROVE
OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING ACROSS
THE AREA WEDNESDAY WILL CAUSE WINDS TO SHIFT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016/

DISCUSSION...
THE PRIMARY CONCERN THROUGH THIS EVENING WILL BE SEVERE WEATHER,
WHICH IS CURRENTLY ISOLATED BUT DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHCENTRAL
OKLAHOMA AS WELL AS JUST SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER IN WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS. AT THE SURFACE, A SHARP DRYLINE HAS CAUGHT UP WITH A COLD
FRONT NEARLY ALONG THE STATE LINES IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE. ALOFT, A LARGE SCALE TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN U.S. INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS, WITH THE LEFT
EXIT QUADRANT OF THE 300 MB JET MAXIMA RIGHT OVER WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM, STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS IN
PLACE, WITH A VERY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE ALOFT. WITH CAPE VALUES IN
THE 3000-4000 J/KG RANGE, THE POTENTIAL EXIST FOR SUPERCELL
THUNDERSTORMS TO FIRE UP. LATEST OUN 18Z SPECIAL SOUNDING STILL
SHOWED A LOW LEVEL INVERSION CAP IN PLACE ABOVE THE BOUNDARY
LAYER. HOWEVER, LOW BASED FORCING ALONG THE DRYLINE/COLD FRONT
ALONG WITH SOME MID LEVEL FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO BREAK THE CAP, RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION FOR LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE STRONG
CAPE VALUES COULD CERTAINLY RESULT IN LARGE HAIL UP TO BASEBALL
SIZE AND/OR SEVERE WIND GUSTS UNDER THE SUPERCELL STORMS. ALTHOUGH
HAIL WILL BE OUR MOST LIKELY CONCERN, SHEAR VALUES OF 45 TO 50 KTS
IN THE 0-6 KM LAYER COULD CERTAINLY FAVOR A FEW TORNADOS
DEVELOPING WITH THESE STORMS. ALTHOUGH MESOSCALE MODELS ARE NOT IN
FULL AGREEMENT, THE HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THE
SCENARIO, WITH WIDESPREAD CONVECTION BREAKING OUT ALONG THE
SURFACE BOUNDARIES IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS
FROM NOW THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS, THEN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. THESE STORMS WILL BE RATHER
QUICK MOVING, SO HYDROLOGY ISSUES/FLOODING CHANCES WOULD BE LOW.
THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE RAMPING DOWN TOWARD THE MIDNIGHT HOURS
WITH POPS DECREASING WELL DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF
WEDNESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT AND DRIER AIR PUSH THROUGH.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM, WEDNESDAY WILL BE SUNNY, WITH
MORE MILDER AND SEASONABLY NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE COLD FRONT. HOWEVER, THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT BACK
NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT, BRINGING MOISTURE BACK INTO THE AREA.
ANOTHER LARGE SCALE SYSTEM COMING FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL AGAIN
BRING POPS OF TSRA BACK INTO THE FORECAST BEGINNING LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY, AND POSSIBLY LINGERING AROUND INTO SATURDAY
ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.

IN THE EXTENDED RANGE, BOTH GFS & ECMWF SUGGEST ANOTHER LARGE WAVE
MOVING IN FROM THE WEST, REINTRODUCING LOW TSRA POPS FOR LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  56  77  50  79 / 100   0   0   0
HOBART OK         51  77  49  79 /  10   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  55  81  53  84 /  60   0   0  10
GAGE OK           48  73  44  73 /  10   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     57  74  48  76 / 100  10   0   0
DURANT OK         62  82  56  84 / 100  10   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

25/30

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
757 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-280100-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-
ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM-
WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-
POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-
COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-
CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-
WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
757 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...REST OF TONIGHT...

.THUNDERSTORMS...
THERE IS A RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

LOCATION...
THE RISK AREA FOR SEVERE STORMS IS EAST OF A LINE FROM CHEROKEE
AND WEATHERFORD... TO NEAR LAWTON OKLAHOMA... TO NEAR WICHITA
FALLS TEXAS.

TIMING...
SEVERE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

IMPACTS...
VERY LARGE HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF TENNIS BALLS AND DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS TO 80 MPH ARE THE MAIN CONCERNS. A FEW TORNADOES ARE STILL
POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS
THE RISK AREA SHOULD PLAN FOR SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS THROUGH
THIS EVENING.

.DISCUSSION...
NUMEROUS STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS
PARTS OF THE AREA THE REST OF THIS EVENING. A LINE OF STORMS WILL
MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA WITH INDIVIDUAL STORMS POSSIBLE EAST OF
THE LINE. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE MAIN
CONCERN. HOWEVER... A FEW TORNADOES ARE STILL POSSIBLE...
ESPECIALLY WITH ANY STORMS THAT ARE AHEAD OF THE LINE.

STORMS HAVE ENDED IN FAR WESTERN PARTS OF OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS. STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO END FROM WEST TO EAST THE
REST OF THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

.THUNDERSTORMS...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR FRIDAY ALONG WITH VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL WHICH COULD PRODUCE FLOODING. THE GREATEST RISK OF
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE OVER WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST
OKLAHOMA.

GET GRAPHICS AND MORE DETAILS AT WEATHER.GOV/NORMAN...AND FOLLOW
OUR WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE ON TWITTER AND FACEBOOK.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
833 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0824 PM     TSTM WND GST     BLANCHARD               35.13N 97.68W
04/26/2016  E65 MPH          GRADY              OK   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

MDAY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
842 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0835 PM     TSTM WND GST     7 SSE RED ROCK          36.37N 97.13W
04/26/2016  M71 MPH          NOBLE              OK   MESONET

&&

MDAY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
843 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0835 PM     HAIL             BRAMAN                  36.92N 97.33W
04/26/2016  E1.00 INCH       KAY                OK   STORM CHASER

&&

MDAY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
846 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0825 PM     HAIL             3 N THE VILLAGE         35.61N 97.55W
04/26/2016  E1.00 INCH       OKLAHOMA           OK   PUBLIC

&&

MDAY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
908 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0900 PM     TSTM WND GST     7 SSE RED ROCK          36.37N 97.13W
04/26/2016  M60 MPH          NOBLE              OK   MESONET

&&

MDAY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
926 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0914 PM     TSTM WND GST     3 SW PARKLAND           35.81N 96.88W
04/26/2016  M62 MPH          LINCOLN            OK   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

MDAY