Severe Thunderstorm Warning 175, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
644 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

.DISCUSSION...
0Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
WIDESPREAD STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH VERY LARGE HAIL... DAMAGING STRAIGHT
LINE WINDS LIKELY. TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. RAIN WILL END FROM
WEST TO EAST LATER THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. CEILINGS WILL IMPROVE
OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING ACROSS
THE AREA WEDNESDAY WILL CAUSE WINDS TO SHIFT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016/

DISCUSSION...
THE PRIMARY CONCERN THROUGH THIS EVENING WILL BE SEVERE WEATHER,
WHICH IS CURRENTLY ISOLATED BUT DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHCENTRAL
OKLAHOMA AS WELL AS JUST SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER IN WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS. AT THE SURFACE, A SHARP DRYLINE HAS CAUGHT UP WITH A COLD
FRONT NEARLY ALONG THE STATE LINES IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE. ALOFT, A LARGE SCALE TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN U.S. INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS, WITH THE LEFT
EXIT QUADRANT OF THE 300 MB JET MAXIMA RIGHT OVER WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM, STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS IN
PLACE, WITH A VERY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE ALOFT. WITH CAPE VALUES IN
THE 3000-4000 J/KG RANGE, THE POTENTIAL EXIST FOR SUPERCELL
THUNDERSTORMS TO FIRE UP. LATEST OUN 18Z SPECIAL SOUNDING STILL
SHOWED A LOW LEVEL INVERSION CAP IN PLACE ABOVE THE BOUNDARY
LAYER. HOWEVER, LOW BASED FORCING ALONG THE DRYLINE/COLD FRONT
ALONG WITH SOME MID LEVEL FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO BREAK THE CAP, RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION FOR LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE STRONG
CAPE VALUES COULD CERTAINLY RESULT IN LARGE HAIL UP TO BASEBALL
SIZE AND/OR SEVERE WIND GUSTS UNDER THE SUPERCELL STORMS. ALTHOUGH
HAIL WILL BE OUR MOST LIKELY CONCERN, SHEAR VALUES OF 45 TO 50 KTS
IN THE 0-6 KM LAYER COULD CERTAINLY FAVOR A FEW TORNADOS
DEVELOPING WITH THESE STORMS. ALTHOUGH MESOSCALE MODELS ARE NOT IN
FULL AGREEMENT, THE HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THE
SCENARIO, WITH WIDESPREAD CONVECTION BREAKING OUT ALONG THE
SURFACE BOUNDARIES IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS
FROM NOW THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS, THEN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. THESE STORMS WILL BE RATHER
QUICK MOVING, SO HYDROLOGY ISSUES/FLOODING CHANCES WOULD BE LOW.
THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE RAMPING DOWN TOWARD THE MIDNIGHT HOURS
WITH POPS DECREASING WELL DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF
WEDNESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT AND DRIER AIR PUSH THROUGH.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM, WEDNESDAY WILL BE SUNNY, WITH
MORE MILDER AND SEASONABLY NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE COLD FRONT. HOWEVER, THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT BACK
NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT, BRINGING MOISTURE BACK INTO THE AREA.
ANOTHER LARGE SCALE SYSTEM COMING FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL AGAIN
BRING POPS OF TSRA BACK INTO THE FORECAST BEGINNING LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY, AND POSSIBLY LINGERING AROUND INTO SATURDAY
ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.

IN THE EXTENDED RANGE, BOTH GFS & ECMWF SUGGEST ANOTHER LARGE WAVE
MOVING IN FROM THE WEST, REINTRODUCING LOW TSRA POPS FOR LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  56  77  50  79 /  50   0   0   0
HOBART OK         51  77  49  79 /  30   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  55  81  53  84 /  40   0   0  10
GAGE OK           48  73  44  73 /  10   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     57  74  48  76 /  80  10   0   0
DURANT OK         62  82  56  84 /  80  10   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

25/30/25

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
426 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-272130-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-
ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM-
WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-
POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-
COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-
CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-
WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
426 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THROUGH TONIGHT...

.THUNDERSTORMS...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS
EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

LOCATION...
THE MODERATE RISK IS EAST OF A LINE FROM CHEROKEE TO LAWTON
AND WICHITA FALLS...AND WEST OF HOLDENVILLE AND DURANT.
LOCATIONS WEST AND EAST OF THE MODERATE RISK ARE IN AN ENHANCED
RISK.

TIMING...
THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
THROUGH MIDNIGHT. STORMS WILL MOVE QUICKLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST.

IMPACTS...
GIANT HAIL LARGER THAN BASEBALLS WILL LIKELY OCCUR WITH SOME
STORMS. WIND GUSTS TO 80 MPH AND TORNADOES ARE ALSO EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS
THE RISK AREA SHOULD PLAN FOR SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS THROUGH
THIS EVENING.

.DISCUSSION...
NUMEROUS STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THROUGH
THIS EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
THE STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP INTO ONE OR MORE LINES THIS
EVENING. THE THREAT OF TORNADOES WILL INCREASE THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING AS LOW LEVEL SHEAR INCREASES. OTHERWISE... GIANT HAIL WILL
BE LIKELY WITH THE SEVERE STORMS. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
OF A CONCERN IF AND/OR WHEN THE STORMS BECOME ONE OR MORE LINES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

.THUNDERSTORMS...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR FRIDAY ALONG WITH VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL WHICH COULD PRODUCE FLOODING. THE GREATEST RISK OF
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE OVER WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST
OKLAHOMA.

GET GRAPHICS AND MORE DETAILS AT WEATHER.GOV/NORMAN...AND FOLLOW
OUR WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE ON TWITTER AND FACEBOOK.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
706 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

OKZ011-012-017-018-023-024-270100-
CANADIAN OK-CADDO OK-BLAINE OK-MAJOR OK-KINGFISHER OK-GARFIELD OK-
706 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN CANADIAN...
NORTHWESTERN CADDO...BLAINE...SOUTHEASTERN MAJOR...KINGFISHER AND
SOUTHWESTERN GARFIELD COUNTIES UNTIL 800 PM CDT...

AT 704 PM CDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM
4 MILES WEST OF ISABELLA TO 4 MILES EAST OF EAGLE CITY TO 6 MILES
SOUTH OF FAY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
WIND GUSTS OVER 50 MPH...
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY AND BE ALERT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

LAT...LON 3555 9797 3554 9862 3555 9863 3596 9863
      3626 9861 3636 9779
TIME...MOT...LOC 0004Z 234DEG 38KT 3621 9841 3594 9852 3572 9863

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
728 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0714 PM     HAIL             2 SSW NORMAN            35.19N 97.46W
04/26/2016  E1.00 INCH       CLEVELAND          OK   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

MDAY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
729 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0725 PM     TSTM WND GST     W IOWA PARK             33.95N 98.67W
04/26/2016  M60 MPH          WICHITA            TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

MDAY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
732 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0725 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 SSW CHEROKEE          36.74N 98.36W
04/26/2016  M73 MPH          ALFALFA            OK   MESONET

&&

MDAY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
738 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0630 PM     HAIL             5 SE ALVA               36.75N 98.60W
04/26/2016  E1.75 INCH       WOODS              OK   PUBLIC

&&

MDAY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
745 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0742 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 W CYRIL               34.90N 98.24W
04/26/2016  M62 MPH          CADDO              OK   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

MDAY