River Flood Warning 24, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
204 PM CDT TUE APR 19 2016

.DISCUSSION...
RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TONIGHT REMAIN THE PRIMARY FORECAST
CONCERN.

CURRENTLY... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE
TO DEVELOP OVER THE PANHANDLES... AND THROUGH 19Z... HAVE BEGUN TO
SLOWLY MOVE INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA. THIS ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO
DEVELOP ALONG/AHEAD OF THE MID-LEVEL THETA-E AXIS TIED TO THE
850/700MB FRONT/TROUGH. INCREASED ISENTROPIC ASCENT ACROSS WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS INTO SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ROUNDS
THE BASE OF THE PARENT LOW... SWINGING OFF THE LLANO ESTACADO
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. INCREASED CONVECTION FROM THIS FEATURE BEGAN
TO MATERIALIZE JUST OFF THE CAPROCK THROUGH 18Z NEAR AND AROUND
LUBBOCK. AS MENTIONED BY MCD 417 FROM THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER...
SOME BREAKS/THINNING OF CLOUD COVER OVER WESTERN NORTH TEXAS TOWARDS
THE CAPROCK HINT AT POTENTIAL SUBTLE DESTABILIZATION OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. A TROPICAL LIKE AIRMASS... DEW POINTS ACROSS THE REGION
REMAIN WELL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S... NEARING 60 IN SOME
LOCATIONS ON THE WEST TEXAS MESONET. FROM BUFR SOUNDINGS... A FEW
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN THIS REGION OF INCREASED LIFT AND MINOR
INSTABILITY COULD BE CAPABLE OF SEVERE HAIL... UP TO QUARTERS OR
HALF DOLLARS INTO THE EVENING. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY MOVE INTO
PORTIONS OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS THROUGH SUNSET.

OVERNIGHT... MESOSCALE GUIDANCE FROM THE RAP/HRRR/HRRRX CONTINUE TO
PROMOTE EXPANSION OF CONVECTION ALONG THE SFC TROUGH/FRONT AS IT
PUSHES EAST/SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHERN
TEXAS. THE HRRRX HAS BEEN THE MORE AGGRESSIVE SOLUTION... BUT ITS
TIMING APPEARS IN LINE WITH THE LATEST RUNS OF THE GFS/ECMWF/NAM. OF
NOTE... THE NAM HAD THE MORE AGGRESSIVE PRECIP SOLUTION LAST
NIGHT... WHICH WORKED OUT FAIRLY WELL ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST INTO
NORTH TEXAS. WITH THAT SAID... LIKE THE MIX OF THE MESOSCALE AND
TRADITIONAL GUIDANCE FOR RAIN/THUNDER EVOLUTION OVERNIGHT...
ESPECIALLY THE COVERAGE AND TIMING FROM THE LATEST HRRRX. AT
PRESENT... EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BUILD UPSTREAM ALONG
THE FRONT/TROUGH AS A MODEST LLJ DEVELOPS. STILL STRUGGLING TO NAIL
DOWN WHERE THE HIGHEST PRECIP AMOUNTS MAY DEVELOP. CURRENT THOUGHTS
ARE SOMEWHERE FROM NEAR THE RED RIVER IN WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND
N/NE ALONG THE I-44 CORRIDOR TOWARD THE OKC METRO. ANOTHER AREA OF
HIGHER PRECIP MAY DEVELOP NEAR THE OK/KS BORDER NEAR I-35... NEARER
THE GREATER INFLUENCE FROM THE 500MB SHORT WAVE. WILL HOLD OFF ON
BEING TOO BULLISH WITH PRECIP... WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS BETWEEN A
HALF INCH TO AN INCH OVERNIGHT. WITH THIS IN MIND... DO NOT PLAN ON
MAKING ANY CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FLOOD WATCH.

WEDNESDAY... RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE QUICKLY THROUGH THE MORNING
FROM THE WEST TO EAST. OVERNIGHT... IN GENERAL... GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO DEVELOP AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LOW/MID-
LEVEL BOUNDARY IN ASSOCIATION WITH ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH. THE
LATEST GFS IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SHORT WAVE... BUT THE GENERAL PATTERN IS REFLECTED BY OTHER
GUIDANCE. PRECIP CHANCES WILL THEN INCREASE LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS.

THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND... LINGERING SHOWERS WILL REMAIN AFTER THE
BULK OF PRECIP FINALLY EXITS TO THE E/SE THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.
EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS FROM FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY AS A RIDGE BUILDS OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. OPPOSED TO YESTERDAY... THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE
NOW IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE NEXT INCOMING TROUGH SUNDAY...
WHILE THE CANADIAN REMAINS A STARK OUTLIER. FOLLOWING THE
CONSISTENCY OF THE GFS/ECMWF... A 500MB TROUGH WILL LIFT N/NE ALONG
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES... RESULTING IN A SURFACE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY EVENING. IN RESPONSE... PRECIP CHANCES WILL
INCREASE LATE IN THE WEEKEND... MOST LIKELY SUNDAY EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT.

KURTZ

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  53  73  52  73 /  70  10  20  30
HOBART OK         50  73  51  73 /  70  10  30  30
WICHITA FALLS TX  54  75  55  75 /  70  20  40  40
GAGE OK           45  71  47  73 /  60  10  20  10
PONCA CITY OK     50  73  49  73 /  70  20  10  20
DURANT OK         59  76  58  74 /  60  40  30  40

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR OKZ023>025-027>030-
     035>042-044>046-050.

TX...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR TXZ083-085-086-090.

&&

09/04

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1200 PM CDT TUE APR 19 2016

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-201115-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-
NOBLE-ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-
BECKHAM-WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-
CLEVELAND-POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-
TILLMAN-COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-
JEFFERSON-CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-
FOARD-WILBARGER-WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
1200 PM CDT TUE APR 19 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN...
WESTERN...CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

.RIVER FLOODING...
HEAVY RAINFALL SINCE SATURDAY ELEVATED LEVELS OF SEVERAL
RIVERS IN SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN TEXAS INTO FLOOD. DO NOT
DRIVE INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD...AND CERTAINLY DO
NOT DRIVE AROUND BARRICADES.

.THUNDERSTORMS...
A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING IN SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS.

.HEAVY RAINFALL...
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL RETURN THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. SOME LOCATIONS COULD RECEIVE ANOTHER 2 INCHES OF
RAINFALL ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA. A FLOOD WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

.HEAVY RAINFALL...
FLASH FLOODING WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA...AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS WEDNESDAY
AS HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUES OVER THE REGION.

.RIVER FLOODING...
MANY RIVERS ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN TEXAS WILL
LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE FLOOD STAGES THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

.THUNDERSTORMS...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. A FEW
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN
OKLAHOMA
AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WILL RETURN TO THE REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY. SEVERE
STORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME.

GET GRAPHICS AND MORE DETAILS AT WEATHER.GOV/NORMAN...AND FOLLOW
OUR WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE ON TWITTER AND FACEBOOK.